Efficient parametric adjustment of fuzzy inference system using unconstrained optimization

This paper presents a new methodology for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems, which uses technique based on error back-propagation method. The free parameters of the fuzzy inference system, such as its intrinsic parameters of the membership function and the weights of the inference rules, are automatically adjusted. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, this methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno. The validation of the presented methodology is accomplished through estimation of time series and by a mathematical modeling problem. More specifically, the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series is used for the validation of the proposed methodology. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Use of bayesian inference to correlate in vitro embryo production and in vivo fertility in Zebu Bulls

The objective of this experiment was to test in vitro embryo production (IVP) as a tool to estimate fertility performance in zebu bulls using Bayesian inference statistics. Oocytes were matured and fertilized in vitro using sperm cells from three different Zebu bulls (V, T, and G). The three bulls presented similar results with regard to pronuclear formation and blastocyst formation rates. However, the cleavage rates were different between bulls. The estimated conception rates based on combined data of cleavage and blastocyst formation were very similar to the true conception rates observed for the same bulls after a fixed-time artificial insemination program. Moreover, even when we used cleavage rate data only or blastocyst formation data only, the estimated conception rates were still close to the true conception rates. We conclude that Bayesian inference is an effective statistical procedure to estimate in vivo bull fertility using data from IVP. © 2011 Mateus José Sudano et al.

Filogeografia de Thoropa grupo miliaris (Anura: Cycloramphidae)

Pós-graduação em Biologia Animal - IBILCE

Genetic relationship between reproductive traits in Nellore cattle

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Avaliação de modelos estatísticos considerando a incerteza da paternidade

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genetic Parameters for Milk Yield and Lactation Length of Crossbred Buffaloes from Brazil by Bayesian Inference

The objective of the study was to estimate heritability and repeatability for milk yield (MY) and lactation length (LL) in buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The Brazilian genetic improvement program of buffalo provided the data that included 628 females, from four herds, born between 1980 and 2003. In order to obtain the estimates of variance, univariate analyses were performed with the Gibbs sampler, using the MTGSAM software. The model for MY and LL included direct genetic additive and permanent environment as random effects, and contemporary groups, milking frequency and calving number as fixed effects. The convergence diagnosis was performed with the Geweke method using an algorithm implemented in R software through the package Bayesian Output Analysis. Average for milk yield and lactation length was 1,546.1 +/- 483.8 kg and 252.3 +/- 42.5 days, respectively. The heritability coefficients were 0.31 (mode), 0.35 (mean) and 0.34 (median) for MY and 0.11 (mode), 0.10 (mean) and 0.10 (median) for LL. The repeatability coefficient (mode) were 0.50 and 0.15 for MY and LL, respectively. Milk yield is the only trait with clear potential for genetic improvement by direct genetic selection. The repeatability for MY indicates that selection based on the first lactation could contribute for an improvement in this trait.

Bayesian inference for two-parameter gamma distribution assuming different noninformative priors

In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.

Phylogeny of cissus (vitaceae) focusing on south american species

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and High Blood Pressure in Adolescents: A School-Based Study

Objective: Although previous studies have analyzed the association between cardiovascular risk factors and blood pressure in adolescents, few studies conducted in developing countries analyzed whether the aggregation of risk factors contributes to an increased risk of high blood pressure in adolescents. The objective of this study was to assess the association between cardiovascular risk factors (including general overweight, abdominal obesity, high consumption of foods rich in fats, and insufficient physical activity levels) and high blood pressure in adolescents.Methods: This study was carried out from 2007 to 2008 with 1021 adolescents (528 girls) from primary schools located in the city of Londrina- Brazil. Blood pressure was assessed using an oscillometric device. General overweight was obtained through body mass index, abdominal obesity was assessed using waist circumference, and the consumption of foods rich in fat and physical activity were assessed using a questionnaire. The sum of these risk factors was determined.Results: Adolescents with three or four aggregated risk factors were more likely to have higher values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure when compared with adolescents who did not have any cardiovascular risk factors (P = 0.001 for both). Logistic regression indicated that groups of adolescents with 2 (OR = 2.46 [1.11-5.42]; P = 0.026), 3 (OR = 4.97 [2.07-11.92]; P = 0.001) or 4 risk factors (OR = 6.79 [2.24-19.9]; P = 0.001) presented an increased likelihood of high blood pressure.Conclusions: The number of cardiovascular risk factors was found to be related to high blood pressure in adolescents. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Inferência estatística clássica para a confiabilidade de rede de coautoria com enfoque nos vértices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution: Bayesian inference, regression modeling and influence diagnostic

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic analysis of the temperament of Nellore cattle using linear and threshold models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)