102 resultados para OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC CURVES


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Background: The objective of this study was to determine the early echocardiographic predictors of elevated left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) after a long follow-up period in the infarcted rat model.Material/Methods: Five days and three months after surgery, sham and infarcted animals were subjected to transthoracic echocardiography. Regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed for predicting increased LVEDP 3 months after MI.Results: Among all of the variables, assessed 5 days after myocardial infarction, infarct size (OR: 0.760; CI 95% 0.563-0.900; p=0.005), end-systolic area (ESA) (OR: 0.761; Cl 95% 0.564-0.900; p=0.008), fractional area change (FAC) (OR: 0.771; CI 95% 0.574-0.907; p=0.003), and posterior wall-shortening velocity (PWSV) (OR: 0.703; CI 95% 0.502-0.860; p=0.048) were predictors of increased LVEDP. The LVEDP was 3.6 +/- 1.8 mmHg in the control group and 9.4 +/- 7.8 mmHg among the infarcted animals (p=0.007). Considering the critical value of predictor variables in inducing cardiac dysfunction, the cut-off value was 35% for infarct size, 0.33 cm(2) for ESA, 40% for FAC, and 26 mm/s for PWSV.Conclusions: Infarct size, FAC, ESA, and PWSV, assessed five days after myocardial infarction, can be used to estimate an increased LVEDP three months following the coronary occlusion.

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OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether measurement of placenta growth factor (PLGF), inhibin A, or soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) at 2 times during pregnancy would usefully predict subsequent preeclampsia ( PE) in women at high risk. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed serum obtained at enrollment (12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks) and follow-up (24-28 weeks) from 704 patients with previous PE and/or chronic hypertension (CHTN) enrolled in a randomized trial for the prevention of PE. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association of log-transformed markers with subsequent PE; receiver operating characteristic analysis assessed predictive value. RESULTS: One hundred four developed preeclampsia: 27 at 37 weeks or longer and 77 at less than 37 weeks (9 at less than 27 weeks). None of the markers was associated with PE at 37 weeks or longer. Significant associations were observed between PE at less than 37 weeks and reduced PLGF levels at baseline (P =.022) and follow-up (P <.0001) and elevated inhibin A (P <.0001) and sFlt-1 (P =.0002) levels at follow-up; at 75% specificity, sensitivities ranged from 38% to 52%. Using changes in markers from baseline to follow-up, sensitivities were 52-55%. Associations were observed between baseline markers and PE less than 27 weeks (P <=.0004 for all); sensitivities were 67-89%, but positive predictive values (PPVs) were only 3.4-4.5%. CONCLUSION: Inhibin A and circulating angiogenic factors levels obtained at 12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks have significant associations with onset of PE at less than 27 weeks, as do levels obtained at 24-28 weeks with onset of PE at less than 37 weeks. However, because the corresponding sensitivities and/or PPVs were low, these markers might not be clinically useful to predict PE in women with previous PE and/or CHTN.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Objective: To determine the number of colony-forming units (CFU) that best correlates with catheter-related infections (CRI) in newborns.Methods: This was a prospective study of semiquantitative cultures of catheter tips obtained from newborns in the neonatal unit at Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The microorganisms isolated from catheter and peripheral blood cultures were identified and submitted to a drug susceptibility test. The optimal cutoff point was determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results: A total of 85 catheters obtained from 63 newborns were studied. Staphylococcus epidermidis was the predominant species in the catheters (75%). Eight of 11 (72.7%) CRI episodes were associated with coagulase-negative staphylococci, six of which were of the S. epidermidis type. ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff point for the diagnosis of CRI was 122 CFU.Conclusions: The cutoff point of 122 CFU correlated best with the diagnosis of CRI in newborns.

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Objective. To develop widely acceptable preliminary criteria of global flare for childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE).Methods. Pediatric rheumatologists (n = 138) rated a total of 358 unique patient profiles with information about the cSLE flare descriptors from 2 consecutive visits: patient global assessment of well-being, physician global assessment of disease activity (MD-global), health-related quality of life, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies, disease activity index scores, protein: creatinine (P:C) ratio, complement levels, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Based on 2,996 rater responses about the course of cSLE (baseline versus followup), the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of candidate flare criteria was assessed. An international consensus conference was held to rank these candidate flare criteria as per the American College of Rheumatology recommendations for the development and validation of criteria sets.Results. The highest-ranked candidate criteria considered absolute changes (Delta) of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) or British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG), MD-global, P:C ratio, and ESR; flare scores can be calculated (0.5 x Delta SLEDAI + 0.45 x Delta P:C ratio + 0.5 x Delta MD-global + 0.02 x Delta ESR), where values of >= 1.04 are reflective of a flare. Similarly, BILAG-based flare scores (0.4 x Delta BILAG + Delta 0.65 x Delta P:C ratio + 0.5 + Delta MD-global + 0.02 x Delta ESR) of >= 1.15 were diagnostic of a flare. Flare scores increased with flare severity.Conclusion. Consensus has been reached on preliminary criteria for global flares in cSLE. Further validation studies are needed to confirm the usefulness of the cSLE flare criteria in research and for clinical care.

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Objective. To describe the clinical and laboratory features of macrophage activation syndrome as a complication of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Cases of juvenile SLE-associated macrophage activation syndrome were provided by investigators belonging to 3 pediatric rheumatology networks or were found in the literature. Patients who had evidence of macrophage hemophagocytosis on bone marrow aspiration were considered to have definite macrophage activation syndrome, and those who did not have such evidence were considered to have probable macrophage activation syndrome. Clinical and laboratory findings in patients with macrophage activation syndrome were contrasted with those of 2 control groups composed of patients with active juvenile SLE without macrophage activation syndrome. The ability of each feature to discriminate macrophage activation syndrome from active disease was evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results. The study included 38 patients (20 with definite macrophage activation syndrome and 18 with probable macrophage activation syndrome). Patients with definite and probable macrophage activation syndrome were comparable with regard to all clinical and laboratory features of the syndrome, except for a greater frequency of lymphadenopathy, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia in patients with definite macrophage activation syndrome. Overall, clinical features had better specificity than sensitivity, except for fever, which was highly sensitive but had low specificity. Among laboratory features, the best sensitivity and specificity was achieved using hyperferritinemia, followed by increased levels of lactate dehydrogenase, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypofibrinogenemia. Based on the results of statistical analysis, preliminary diagnostic guidelines for macrophage activation syndrome in juvenile SLE were developed.Conclusion. Our findings indicate that the occurrence of unexplained fever and cytopenia, when associated with hyperferritinemia, in a patient with juvenile SLE should raise the suspicion of macrophage activation syndrome. We propose preliminary guidelines for this syndrome in juvenile SLE to facilitate timely diagnosis and correct classification of patients.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

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Objective. To use the Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) core set of outcome measures to develop a validated definition of improvement for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries, each of whom had specific experience in the assessment of juvenile SLE patients, achieved consensus on 128 patient profiles as being clinically improved or not improved. Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the gold standard measure, the chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa level of agreement for 597 candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Only definitions with a kappa value greater than 0.7 were retained. The top definitions were selected based on the product of the content validity score multiplied by its kappa statistic.Results. The definition of improvement with the highest final score was at least 50% improvement from baseline in any 2 of the 5 core set measures, with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%.Conclusion. PRINTO proposes a valid and reproducible definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians and that incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set measures in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in patients with juvenile SLE. The definition is now proposed for use in juvenile SLE clinical trials and may help physicians to decide whether a child with SLE responded adequately to therapy.