Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparison of selective genotyping strategies for prediction of breeding values in a population undergoing selection

Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0), and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models.

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Estimativas das componentes da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas baseadas na radiação global horizontal

Statistics equations and validations with groups of annual and monthly data were evaluated for global, direct and diffuse solar radiation components incident on the tilted surface to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85 degrees with the face North, in climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. It was employed the fractions of three components of extraterrestrial radiation in correlation with the coefficient clearness index horizontal plane, in a database of April/1998 to December/2007, whose measures at different periods in three inclinations, however concomitant to the horizontal plane. Increasing the angle of the surface led to increased scattering of the daily values of clearness index for inclined and horizontal surfaces. In annual groups, the lower performances were observed in the estimation of inclined daily diffuse radiation, with maximum Root Mean Square Error to 3.89 MJ m(-2) d(-1) (43.65%) and adjustments around 62%. In estimates of global and direct components of solar radiation on inclined planes, both annual and monthly equations can be applied, with performance dependents to climatic conditions.

Estimativa da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas por modelos isotrópicos e índice de claridade

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de modelos isotrópicos de estimativa do total de radiação incidente em superfícies inclinadas e propor estimativas com base nas correlações entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, em diferentes condições de cobertura de céu, em Botucatu, SP. Foram avaliadas superfícies com inclinação de 12,85º, 22,85º e 32,85º, pelos modelos isotrópicos propostos por Liu & Jordan, Revfeim, Jimenez & Castro, Koronakis, a teoria Circunsolar, e a correlação entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, para diferentes condições de cobertura de céu. O banco de dados de radiação global utilizado corresponde ao período de 1998 a 2007, com intervalos de 4/1998 a 8/2001 para a inclinação de 22,85º, de 9/2001 a 2/2003 para 12,85º e de 1/2004 a 12/2007 para 32,85º. O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado pelos indicadores estatísticos erro absoluto médio, raiz quadrada do quadrado médio do erro e índice d de Wilmott. Os modelos de Liu & Jordan, Koronakis e de Revfeim apresentaram os melhores desempenhos em dias nublados, em todas as inclinações. As coberturas de céu parcialmente difuso e parcialmente aberto, nos maiores ângulos de inclinação, apresentaram as maiores dispersões entre valores estimados e medidos, independentemente do modelo. As equações estatísticas apresentaram bons resultados em aplicações com agrupamentos de dados mensais.

Development of amorphous carbon protective coatings on poly(vinyl)chloride

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Adaptação transcultural Portugal-Brasil do Inventário de Burnout de Maslach para estudantes

OBJETIVO: Realizar a adaptação transcultural da versão em português do Inventário de Burnout de Maslach para estudantes e investigar sua confiabilidade, validade e invariância transcultural. MÉTODOS: A validação de face envolveu participação de equipe multidisciplinar. Foi realizada validação de conteúdo. A versão em português foi preenchida em 2009, pela internet, por 958 estudantes universitários brasileiros e 556 portugueses da zona urbana. Realizou-se análise fatorial confirmatória utilizando-se como índices de ajustamento o χ²/df, o comparative fit index (CFI), goodness of fit index (GFI) e o root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). Para verificação da estabilidade da solução fatorial conforme a versão original em inglês, realizou-se validação cruzada em 2/3 da amostra total e replicada no 1/3 restante. A validade convergente foi estimada pela variância extraída média e confiabilidade composta. Avaliou-se a validade discriminante e a consistência interna foi estimada pelo coeficiente alfa de Cronbach. A validade concorrente foi estimada por análise correlacional da versão em português e dos escores médios do Inventário de Burnout de Copenhague; a divergente foi comparada à Escala de Depressão de Beck. Foi avaliada a invariância do modelo entre a amostra brasileira e a portuguesa. RESULTADOS: O modelo trifatorial de Exaustão, Descrença e Eficácia apresentou ajustamento adequado (χ²/df = 8,498; CFI = 0,916; GFI = 0,902; RMSEA = 0,086). A estrutura fatorial foi estável (λ: χ²dif = 11,383, p = 0,50; Cov: χ²dif = 6,479, p = 0,372; Resíduos: χ²dif = 21,514, p = 0,121). Observou-se adequada validade convergente (VEM = 0,45;0,64, CC = 0,82;0,88), discriminante (ρ² = 0,06;0,33) e consistência interna (α = 0,83;0,88). A validade concorrente da versão em português com o Inventário de Copenhague foi adequada (r = 0,21;0,74). A avaliação da validade divergente do instrumento foi prejudicada pela aproximação do conceito teórico das dimensões Exaustão e Descrença da versão em português com a Escala de Beck. Não se observou invariância do instrumento entre as amostras brasileiras e portuguesas (λ:χ²dif = 84,768, p < 0,001; Cov: χ²dif = 129,206, p < 0,001; Resíduos: χ²dif = 518,760, p < 0,001). CONCLUSÕES: A versão em português do Inventário de Burnout de Maslach para estudantes apresentou adequada confiabilidade e validade, mas sua estrutura fatorial não foi invariante entre os países, apontando ausência de estabilidade transcultural.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Non-newtonian flow and pressure drop of pineapple juice in a plate heat exchanger

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbon Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Profiles coupled to Partial Least-Squares Multivariate Regression for Prediction of Several Physicochemical Parameters of Brazilian Commercial Gasoline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Uma experiência com modelo estatístico (MOS) para a previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar

Uma equação de regressão múltipla MOS (da sigla em inglês para Model Output Statistics), para previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar na cidade de Bauru, estado de São Paulo, é desenvolvida. A equação de regressão múltipla, obtida usando análise de regressão stepwise, tem quatro preditores, três do modelo numérico global do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) e um observacional da estação meteorológica do Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet), Bauru. Os preditores são prognósticos para 24 horas do modelo global, válidos para 00:00GMT, da temperatura em 1000hPa, vento meridional em 850hPa e umidade relativa em 1000hPa, e temperatura observada às 18:00GMT. Esses quatro preditores explicam, aproximadamente, 80% da variância total do preditando, com erro quadrático médio de 1,4°C, que é aproximadamente metade do desvio padrão da temperatura mínima diária do ar observada na estação do IPMet. Uma verificação da equação MOS com uma amostra independente de 47 casos mostra que a previsão não se deteriora significativamente quando o preditor observacional for desconsiderado. A equação MOS, com ou sem esse preditor, produz previsões com erro absoluto menor do que 1,5°C em 70% dos casos examinados. Este resultado encoraja a utilização da técnica MOS para previsão operacional da temperatura mínima e seu desenvolvimento para outros elementos do tempo e outras localidades.

Validity and reliability of the Portuguese version of Mandibular Function Impairment Questionnaire

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Neural networks training using the constructivism paradigms

The Backpropagation Algorithm (BA) is the standard method for training multilayer Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), although it converges very slowly and can stop in a local minimum. We present a new method for neural network training using the BA inspired on constructivism, an alphabetization method proposed by Emilia Ferreiro based on Piaget philosophy. Simulation results show that the proposed configuration usually obtains a lower final mean square error, when compared with the standard BA and with the BA with momentum factor.

Another prefiltering algorithm for adaptive IIR filtering

An algorithm for adaptive IIR filtering that uses prefiltering structure in direct form is presented. This structure has an estimation error that is a linear function of the coefficients. This property greatly simplifies the derivation of gradient-based algorithms. Computer simulations show that the proposed structure improves convergence speed.