Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

EFFICIENT FAULT LOCATION IN UNDERGROUND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS THROUGH OPTIMUM-PATH FOREST

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An Optimum-Path Forest framework for intrusion detection in computer networks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficient supervised optimum-path forest classification for large datasets

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A New Approach for Nontechnical Losses Detection Based on Optimum-Path Forest

Nowadays, fraud detection is important to avoid nontechnical energy losses. Various electric companies around the world have been faced with such losses, mainly from industrial and commercial consumers. This problem has traditionally been dealt with using artificial intelligence techniques, although their use can result in difficulties such as a high computational burden in the training phase and problems with parameter optimization. A recently-developed pattern recognition technique called optimum-path forest (OPF), however, has been shown to be superior to state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques. In this paper, we proposed to use OPF for nontechnical losses detection, as well as to apply its learning and pruning algorithms to this purpose. Comparisons against neural networks and other techniques demonstrated the robustness of the OPF with respect to commercial losses automatic identification.

Relief influence on tree species richness in secondary forest fragments of Atlantic Forest, SE, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of the kinetics of xylose formation from dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis of forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis

Dilute acid hydrolysis studies were performed on forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis, in a cylindrical reactor of stainless steel. The kinetics of this hydrolysis reaction was investigated employing 0.65% sulfuric acid, a residue/acid solution ratio of 1/9 (w/w), temperatures of 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C, and reaction times in the range 20-100 min. The results showed that, under the optimized conditions of acid hydrolysis employed in this study, the variables temperature and reaction time had a strong influence on hemicellulose removal and a small influence on the degree of lignin and cellulose removal. The highest xylose extraction yield was 87.6% attained at 160 degrees C, after 70 min reaction time, simultaneously with the formation of decomposition products, namely 2.8% acetic acid, 0.6% furfural, and 0.06% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. A similar xylose extraction yield (82.8%) was observed at 150 degrees C after 100 min, with the formation of 3.2% acetic acid, 1.0% furfural, and 0.07% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. The kinetic parameters determined at 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C for degradation of xylan present in the hemicellulose of the eucalyptus forest residue during the formation of xylose were the first-order reaction rate constants (k) for each temperature, 1.22 x 10(-4), 2.12 x 10(-4), 5.43 x 10(-4), and 9.05 x 10(-4) s(-1), respectively, and an activation energy (E-a) of 101.3 kJ mol(-1).

Mercury emissions from forest burning in southern Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Laboratory evaluation of Amazon forest biomass burning emissions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Forest natural regeneration and biomass production after slash and burn in a seasonally dry forest in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Biomass consumption and CO2, CO and main hydrocarbon gas emissions in an Amazonian forest clearing fire

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evidence that the Ceratobasidium-like white-thread blight and black rot fungal pathogens from persimmon and tea crops in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest agroecosystem are two distinct phylospecies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Movements of bats (Mammalia, Chiroptera) in Atlantic Forest remnants in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Feeding ecology of carnivores (Mammalia, Carnivora) in Atlantic Forest remnants, Southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Structural variations in root and stem wood of Styrax (Styracaceae) from Brazilian forest and cerrado

The genus Styrax L. (Styracaceae) has a wide distribution in Brazil, occurring in diverse ecosystems. To get a better insight into the ecological adaptations of wood structure, we studied two species, S. camporum and S.ferrugineus from the cerrado, and three species, S. latifolium, S. martii and S. leprosus from the Atlantic forest. For each species, the wood of root and stem was analyzed separately and observations included qualitative as well as quantitative wood characteristics. The results show that there were significant anatomical differences between the forest and cerrado species as well as between the root and stem wood within single species. Quantitatively, the most informative features in the root wood that separated the forest from the cerrado, species were diameter, length and number of vessels, length of fibres, and width and frequency of rays. In the stem wood, length and frequency of vessels, length of fibres, and width and frequency of rays were the most informative features. In contrast to the forest species, which had larger vessel diameters in their stem wood, the cerrado species had larger vessel diameters in their root wood. The calculated vulnerability index indicates that all Sryrax species have adaptations to mesic conditions. The cerrado species had the smallest index values, which could be related to the seasonally dry condition of this environment.