Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The complementary exponential power lifetime model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ancestral polymorphism and recent invasion of transposable elements in Drosophila species

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Constraints implementation for IQML and mode direction-of-arrival estimators

The iterative quadratic maximum likelihood IQML and the method of direction estimation MODE are well known high resolution direction-of-arrival DOA estimation methods. Their solutions lead to an optimization problem with constraints. The usual linear constraint presents a poor performance for certain DOA values. This work proposes a new linear constraint applicable to both DOA methods and compare their performance with two others: unit norm and usual linear constraint. It is shown that the proposed alternative performs better than others constraints. The resulting computational complexity is also investigated.

Assessing relationships between genetic evaluations using robust regression with an application to holsteins in Uruguay

Globalization of dairy cattle breeding has created a need for international sire proofs. Some early methods for converting proofs from one population to another are based on simple linear regression. An alternative robust regression method based on the t-distribution is presented, and maximum likelihood and Bayesian techniques for analysis are described, including the situation in which some proofs are missing. Procedures were used to investigate the relationship between Holstein sire proofs obtained by two Uruguayan genetic evaluation programs. The results suggest that conversion equations developed from data including only sires having proofs in both populations can lead to distorted results, relative to estimates obtained using techniques for incomplete data. There was evidence of non-normality of regression residuals, which constitutes an additional source of bias. A robust estimator may not solve all problems, but can provide simple conversion equations that are less sensitive to outlying proofs and to departures from assumptions.

Lattice constellations and codes from quadratic number fields

We propose new classes of linear codes over integer rings of quadratic extensions of Q, the field of rational numbers. The codes are considered with respect to a Mannheim metric, which is a Manhattan metric modulo a two-dimensional (2-D) grid. In particular, codes over Gaussian integers and Eisenstein-Jacobi integers are extensively studied. Decoding algorithms are proposed for these codes when up to two coordinates of a transmitted code vector are affected by errors of arbitrary Mannheim weight. Moreover, we show that the proposed codes are maximum-distance separable (MDS), with respect to the Hamming distance. The practical interest in such Mannheim-metric codes is their use in coded modulation schemes based on quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM)-type constellations, for which neither the Hamming nor the Lee metric is appropriate.

Precision measurements of the ∧c + and D0 lifetimes

A measurement technique of charm baryons lifetimes from hadro-production data was presented. The measurement verified the lifetime analysis procedure in a sample with higher statistical precision. Other effects studied include mass reflections; effects of the presence of a second charm particle; and mismeasurement of charm decays. Monte carlo simulations were used for the detailed study of systematic effects using the charm data.

Inferences about the coefficient of correlation in the standard bivariate normal distribution

The study of the association between two random variables that have a joint normal distribution is of interest in applied statistics; for example, in statistical genetics. This article, targeted to applied statisticians, addresses inferences about the coefficient of correlation (ρ) in the bivariate normal and standard bivariate normal distributions using likelihood, frequentist, and Baycsian perspectives. Some results are surprising. For instance, the maximum likelihood estimator and the posterior distribution of ρ in the standard bivariate normal distribution do not follow directly from results for a general bivariate normal distribution. An example employing bootstrap and rejection sampling procedures is used to illustrate some of the peculiarities.

Affinities of the Saw-billed Hermit (Ramphodon naevius) determined by cytochrome-b sequence data

We sequenced 912 bp of the cytochrome-b gene to examine phylogenetic relationships of the enigmatic Saw-billed Hermit (Ramphodon naevius), a large and distinctive hummingbird endemic to tropical forests of southeastern Brazil. Bootstrapped maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood analyses of sequence data from 11 hummingbirds and several outgroups (two swifts, one goatsucker) support: (a) monophyly of the traditional hermit (Phaethornithinae) and nonhermit (Trochilinae) subfamilies, (b) placement of Ramphodon among hermits, and (c) a sister relationship between Ramphodon and an exemplar of the widespread polytypic hermit genus Glaucis. The association of Ramphodon with derived hermit lineages is concordant with subfamilial patterns of wing anatomy and nest architecture. However, the unusual plumages (striped underparts) and male bills (long, serrated, hooked) shared by Ramphodon and the Tooth-billed Hummingbird (Androdon aequatorialis) appear to have evolved within separate hermit and nonhermit tooth-billed clades. Distal placement of the Ramphodon-Glaucis clade within hermits implies that even distinctive Brazilian endemics such as Ramphodon are derived forms that evolved relatively recently.

Precision of yule-walker methods for the arma spectral model

In this work a new method is proposed of separated estimation for the ARMA spectral model based on the modified Yule-Walker equations and on the least squares method. The proposal of the new method consists of performing an AR filtering in the random process generated obtaining a new random estimate, which will reestimate the ARMA model parameters, given a better spectrum estimate. Some numerical examples will be presented in order to ilustrate the performance of the method proposed, which is evaluated by the relative error and the average variation coefficient.

Strong selection against hybrids at a hybrid zone in the Ensatina ring species complex and its evolutionary implications

The analysis of interactions between lineages at varying levels of genetic divergence can provide insights into the process of speciation through the accumulation of incompatible mutations. Ring species, and especially the Ensatina eschscholtzii system exemplify this approach. The plethodontid salamanders E. eschscholtzii xanthoptica and E. eschscholtzii platensis hybridize in the central Sierran foothills of California. We compared the genetic structure across two transects (southern and northern Calaveras Co.), one of which was resampled over 20 years, and examined diagnostic molecular markers (eight allozyme loci and mitochondrial DNA) and a diagnostic quantitative trait (color pattern). Key results across all studies were: (1) cline centers for all markers were coincident and the zones were narrow, with width estimates of 730 m to 2000 m; (2) cline centers at the northern Calaveras transect were coincident between 1981 and 2001, demonstrating repeatability over five generations; (3) there were very few if any putative F1s, but a relatively high number of backcrossed individuals in the central portion of transects: and (4) we found substantial linkage disequilibrium in all three studies and strong heterozygote deficit both in northern Calaveras, in 2001, and southern Calaveras. Both linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote deficit showed maximum values near the center of the zones. Using estimates of cline width and dispersal, we infer strong selection against hybrids. This is sufficient to promote accumulation of differences at loci that are neutral or under divergent selection, but would still allow for introgression of adaptive alleles. The evidence for strong but incomplete isolation across this centrally located contact is consistent with theory suggesting a gradual increase in postzygotic incompatibility between allopatric populations subject to divergent selection and reinforces the value of Ensatina as a system for the study of divergence and speciation at multiple stages. © 2005 The Society for the Study of Evolution. All rights reserved.

Avaliação do uso da terra em micro̧bacia utilizando uma matriz de partição fuzzy

Informatics evolution presently offers the possibility of new technique and methodology development for studies in all human knowledge areas. In addition, the present personal computer capacity of handling a large volume of data makes the creation and application of new analysis tools easy. This paper aimed the application of a fuzzy partition matrix to analyze data obtained from the Landsat 5 TMN sensor, in order to elaborate the supervised classification of land use in Arroio das Pombas microbasin in Botucatu, SP, Brazil. It was possible that one single training area present input in more than one covering class due to weight attribution at the signature creation moment. A change in the classification result was also observed when compared to maximum likelihood classification, mainly when related to bigger uniformity and better class edges classification.

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).