17 resultados para Scenario analysis


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This study presents a new methodology based on risk/investment to solve transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) problem with multiple future scenarios. Three mathematical models related to TNEP problems considering multiple future generation and load scenarios are also presented. These models will provide planners with a meaningful risk assessment that enable them to determine the necessary funding for transmission lines at a permissible risk level. The results using test and real systems show that the proposed method presents better solutions compared with scenario analysis method. ©The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

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This paper presents a new field for professional Public Relations: startups. And this new alignment brings context and typology with the business public relations as an entrepreneur and manager of a communications agency. This new type of business, startups, with accelerated growth characteristics and high-risk investments, and alternative becomes simultaneously an opportunity to undertake innovative projects up and turn into a business. In this sense, the work part of the mix of innovation and diffusion of new ideas, with the capacity of Public Relations professional to adapt and work with many different sectors. Considering this context, the study seeks, finds that public relations professionals become essential for mediating the process of scenario analysis for the deployment of startups, and can be very useful in the case of managers and initiators the agency itself as a startup company offering a strategic advantage by combining management and communication

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This paper presents a new playing field for the public relations professional: the start-ups. This new company, with characteristics of fast growth and high-risk investments, becomes an alternative and, at the same time, opportunity for innovative projects that turns from theory into real business, product or service. This way, the work starts on the context of innovation and spread of new ideas, so people can understand the importance of the promotion and study of new ways to market. Faced with this context, public relations professionals are becoming essential in the mediating process of scenario analysis for the implantation of start-ups, as well as the communication of innovation and insight in this new business environment

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This Project aims to study and verify the importance of effective communication in public organizations, considering current factors such as globalization and new trends in the behavior of the individuals. The issue is relevant because of the need to understand the relationships between the public institution and the various interest groups and research development of new practices of Public Relations as regards their influence on the municipal level. In this context, we present the concept of city, communication, citizenship and participation, focusing on the integration of these elements in the concept of Public Communication. Thus, attem pts to develop the applicability of instruments involving these concepts through scenario analysis, making communication purposal to the prefecture of Laranjal Paulista

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This paper, result of a bibliographic review, documentary research and interview with a professional of public relations area (PR), presents a scenario analysis tool and the way how the public relations professional can use it. Are pointed some abilities and strategic skills of this professional that can actually enable him to the prospection, building and analyze of scenarios, from the perspective of relationship with the organization publics. The scenario analysis tool is a strategic way to make some decisions, being used to the analysis of junctures, that can back up organizations' actions and activities, considering possible future results, in other words, the consequences and the developments caused by certain organization attitude or stance. On the end of this paper, we present a propose of strategic plan to Public Relations, using a suggested use for the tool

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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A simulation model implemented in the programming software Delphi XE® was applied to evaluate sex selection in bovine. The hypothesis under investigation was that a dynamic model with stochastic and deterministic elements could detect the sexed semen technique to minimize pregnancy cost and to determine the adequate number of recipients required for in vivo (ET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) in the proposed scenarios. Sex selection was compared through semen sexed using flow cytometry (C1) and density gradient centrifugation techniques (C2) in ET and IVP. Sensibility analyses were used to identify the adequate number of recipients for each scenario. This number was reinserted into the model to determine the biological and financial values that maximized ET and IVP using sexed semen (C1M and C2M). New scenarios showed that the density gradient technique minimized pregnancy cost based on the proposed scenarios. In addition, the adequate number of recipients (ET - C1M - 115 and C2M - 105)/(IVP - C1M - 145 and C2M - 140) per donor used was determined to minimize the pregnancy cost in all scenarios.

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Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze the stress distribution on dentin/adhesive interface (d/a) through a 3-D finite element analysis (FEA) varying the number and diameter of the dentin tubules orifice according to dentin depth, keeping hybrid layer (HL) thickness and TAǴs length constant. Materials and Methods: 3 models were built through the SolidWorks software: SD - specimen simulating superficial dentin (41 x 41 x 82 μm), with a 3 μm thick HL, a 17 μm length Tag, and 8 tubules with a 0.9 μm diameter restored with composite resin. MD - similar to M1 with 12 tubules with a 1.2 μm diameter, simulating medium dentin. DD - similar to M1 with 16 tubules with a 2.5 μm diameter, simulating deep dentin. Other two models were built in order to keep the diameter constant in 2.5 μm: MS - similar to SD with 8 tubules; and MM - similar to MD with 12 tubules. The boundary condition was applied to the base surface of each specimen. Tensile load (0.03N) was performed on the composite resin top surface. Stress field (maximum principal stress in tension - σMAX) was performed using Ansys Wokbench 10.0. Results: The peak of σMAX (MPa) were similar between SD (110) and MD (106), and higher for DD (134). The stress distribution pathway was similar for all models, starting from peritubular dentin to adhesive layer, intertubular dentin and hybrid layer. The peak of σMAX (MPa) for those structures was, respectively: 134 (DD), 56.9 (SD), 45.5 (DD), and 36.7 (MD). Conclusions: The number of dentin tubules had no influence in the σMAX at the dentin/adhesive interface. Peritubular and intertubular dentin showed higher stress with the bigger dentin tubules orifice condition. The σMAX in the hybrid layer and adhesive layer were going down from superficial dentin to deeper dentin. In a failure scenario, the hybrid layer in contact with peritubular dentin and adhesive layer is the first region for breaking the adhesion. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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OBJETIVO: Identificar padrões alimentares e a distribuição dos mesmos, em uma amostra representativa de idosos do município de Botucatu, São Paulo.MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal, ocorrido entre março e junho de 2011, com 355 idosos cadastrados na rede básica de saúde do município, selecionados por amostragem estratificada entre as unidades de saúde. Aplicou-se um questionário de frequência alimentar e questionário sociodemográfico. Padrões alimentares foram identificados utilizando-se análise de componentes principais. Escores de consumo individual foram divididos em tercis, caracterizando a adesão baixa, moderada e alta dos indivíduos para cada padrão alimentar. Realizaram-se análises entre os tercis dos padrões alimentares e as variáveis sociodemográficas.RESULTADOS: Identificaram-se seis padrões alimentares: saudável; lanches e refeição de final de semana; frutas; light e integral; dieta branda; e tradicional. A alta adesão aos padrões saudável e frutas é atingida por indivíduos que cursaram até o primário; e a alta adesão ao padrão lanches e refeição de final de semana é mais prevalente no sexo masculino e em indivíduos com nível máximo de escolaridade. A alta adesão aos padrões light e integral e dieta branda é mais prevalente no sexo feminino, sendo este último padrão também característico de idosos em idade mais avançada.CONCLUSÃO: Identificou-se uma diversidade de padrões alimentares nessa população de idosos e o comportamento alimentar variou de acordo com as condições sociodemográficas inseridas no grupo.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)