Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Diálogos da Alma: uma outra história da loucura

The tesis intends to awake a new way of looking at madness. It presents as reference the Psychiatric Hospital Doctor João Machado (Natal/RN) and histories of life and narratives of four intern residents. The research in an ethical horizon, intends to give back to the subjects the voices long silented behind the institutions walls by their families and society in general. As well as to open the interpretations of science to receive and to dialogue with other itineraries of thought that, if on one hand does not restitute the explanation of the Real, on the other hand expresses other forms to see the world. Dislocated of the bigger social environment, the people identified as insane, construct their histories endowed with autonomy and displacements in relation to the social rules and structures that characterize our society, as much as in relation to the logical principles of thought that assume an objective and rational reality. As well as a remnants bedspread configured in a complex and unfinished object, the break up of histories of life of the interns, interviews with medical on psychiatrists to the Doctor João Machado Hospital, documents of the institution and depositions of that house, were the raw material to construct, with this tesis, another chapter of the 'history of madness'. In elapsing of the work innumerable voices have been heard. Some that study the phenomenon of madness, others that live this 'state of the being' in the world. We opt to detaching the first of an open conception on the theme through intellectuals as: João da Costa Machado, Ulysses Pernambucano, Nise da Silveira and Boris Cyrulnik. They express ethics compromised to the humanity of the being

A etnopoética de Iracema: diálogo, ciência e literatura

Literary works are thought provokers that make it possible to access several forms to view the world and reality. They provide diversified points of view and infinite connections. In a particular way, among all the other forms of art expression literature is considered to be the closest to life, once it is able to reconnect all human dimensions emotional, rational, mystic, personal, universal, corporal, historic, mythical. This thesis aims at offering some reflections about the frontiers and bridges between science and literature aiming at understanding the complexity that guides them. It presents a new reading of Iracema novel: Ceará tale of José de Alencar from a meticulous incursion through new ways and natural spaces interwoven by Alencar. It tries to hear the echoes of this indianist novel in the university students today. In a broader context, it creates arguments that question the multiple threadsthat join science and literature so that a science of complexity arises distinguishing but not separating the innumerous narratives about the world. For this purpose, this thesis has as interlocutors: Antonio Candido, Charles P. Snow, Edgar Morin, Emilio Ciurana, Fritjof Capra, George Steiner, Ilya Prigogine, Isabelle Stengers, Roger Chartier, Roland Barthes. The plot presented here does not limit the novel to science, but makes it a rereading of the word, of life, once this is the raw material of books. As a methodological strategy, we rebuilt Iracema´s character trips in a way to update the novel, resulting in the video documentary Iracema ways: the arid and remote interior, the plateau, the sea. Iracema novel and character enhancing dialogs that allow the dichotomy rupture between two cultures (Charles P. Snow), recognizing they are not incommunicable and revealing the core argument of the thesis: Iracema belongs to a complex category. It is a hybrid novel that is far, far away from that bluish plateau in the horizon

Clara Nunes como obra de arte: a epistemologia das ciências humanas a partir da cultura musical

The thesis has its largest array in the reorganization of science that is built from the middle of the last century and its horizon reconnection between scientific culture and humanistic culture, and the dialogue between science, art and literature. This epistemological regeneration view of the scientific paradigm incorporates the poetic language and sociological analysis, and brings out a complex, open and transdisciplinary narrative. To undertake this exercise as interlocutors we have thinkers like Nietzsche, Lévi-Strauss, Edgar Morin and Bruno Latour, to name a few, and as a reference for analyzing the entire artistic production of one of the icons of Brazilian music, Clara Nunes. It is problematized up in this work, through the singer s discography, lyrics and fragments of her biography, the construction of a social character that politicized culture, increased the mestizo consciousness of popular imagery, and exceeded the excessively prosaic narratives of the academic and scientific culture. The central argument of the thesis recognizes a Hybrid Subject Clara Nunes, as indeed is what is expected of the politically engaged intellectual in the 21st century

O voto e seus enigmas: A dimensão subjetiva das escolhas eleitorais

Ce travail analyse la portée subjective des Choix Électoraux à travers la notion psychanalytique du désarroi humain. Nous avons développé cette recherche ayant pour référence la pensée de Freud et de Lacan et suivant les jalons posés par les penseurs des sciences sociales nous nous sommes rapprochées de la réalité sociale pour y « atteindre sur son horizon la subjectivité de notre époque ». La condition de désarroi fait partie de la structuration du sujet, du fait qu il dépend entièrement de l Autre pour se construire. Cependant l être humain se crée des mécanismes pour se protéger du désarroi absolu, il trouve des arts de vivre qui lui rendent plus facile sa condition d être. Les idéaux, les pactes sociaux ce sont des modalités de sécurité sans lesquelles le sujet fixe ses particularités sans s engager dans le processus civilisatoire. Nous caractérisons la société contemporaine par la chute successive d une série d idéaux qui fait monter de plus en plus le désarroi. Dans l absence d idéaux sociaux et politiques sur lesquels l électeur puisse se repérer, nous remaquons une tendance vers l individualisme et vers l absence d investissements dans des projets colectifs. Cette façon d opérer se dévoile aussi au moment de choisir un candidat, ce qui se base sur la logique du particulier motivée par des perspectives individuelles, sans liens avec la promotion de la vie publique. Notre enquête a été réalisée à Natal durant la campagne électorale de 2002. Notre objectif est de comprendre surtout la logique des choix électoraux de la population de la périphérie, celle qui se trouve devant un double désarroi : celle de sa condition humaine et celle qu advient de la précaire condition de subsistance. Nous soutenons que l idée selon laquelle le candidat, par la position qu il occupe dans la société, détient la fonction d offrir quelques garanties à l électeur et de cette manière il entre dans la série de ce qui peut soulager et promouvoir un certain réconfort aux personnes, même si l on considère le fait que l électeur ne croit plus à ses représentants. Nous sommes partis des questions suivantes: comment identifier la dimension subjective des choix électoraux et de quelle manière celle-ci se manifeste-t-elle de nos jours ? Comment se passe le choix éléctoral de la population qui est à la marge du système? La thèse que nous soutenons est que l état de désarroi est un substrat subjectif qui est la base de tout choix éléctoral mais qui se configure de façon différenciée à partir des références de l électeur, de son contexte historique, des facteurs économiques, etc. Le sujet, face à son désarroi, construit des chemins pour pouvoir soutenir son existence ce que nous appellons ici un Projet Directionnel. Ce facteur directionnel est l un des éléments de motivation des électeurs dans leurs choix électoraux

Livre expressão :para que te quero? o interesse público no ensino do Jornalismo

The main objective of this research was studying the meanings of the freedom of expression and what professors of Journalism think about the way those meanings are used in pedagogical practices. The term freedom of expression is commonly used in journalism even though it is not so studied, consequently we don t have a word to define it. Therefore, we related the term freedom of expression in Journalism teaching to the condition as the object of this study, aiming to establish a connection among the term, the right, free expression and the endurance of the right. The theorical support to understand the dynamic of the meanings of the freedom of expression in the social practice of Journalism teaching was based in the Hegeliana dialetic theorical principles and in the language philosophy more specifically in Bakhtin s perspective from which we can mention the social auditorium, immediate conditions of production and a wider social horizon as the main categories of analysis. This study is a qualitative research with an interacionist perspective anchored in a semi-structured interview as a privileged method of data collecting made with ten professors from Journalism graduation. The analysis reveals that, in the interviewers perspective, there would be a deceiving practice from freedom of expression in the journalism teaching in which emerges either in speeches with handbills spreading the fear and/or under a stimulus form to concealment

Retratos, imagens, letras e numeros colados nas paredes:representaçãoes sociais de escola para ribeirinhos dos rios Môa e Azul - Acre

Remote Communities. Absence of artifacts and minimization of the exacerbated consumption of modernity. The desire which spread beyond what reality can provide. Expressions like this are present in this paper which focus in the social representations of school built by residents who live at the riversides of Môa and Azul Rivers, in Mâncio Lima, Acre State. To do so, we used the methodological contribution of the semi-structured interview, observation of the place while a natural inhabitant of the region, and also photos analyses of local reality. A key feature of the riverside homes is the glued paper on the walls of houses forming a panel set of portraits, pictures, letters and numbers for all appreciated. Regardless of whether or not read, there is admiration for the color of the images, the layout of the letters, and the things of the city awakening the desire to obtain school knowledge. The resident of this Amazon region maintains a close relationship between thinking, acting and feeling living harmonically with nature that connects them to the ideal landscape which is revisited by the graphic material that attracts wondering what exists beyond the shores of the river, beyond the horizon of green forests. It is a life entirely accomplished by the imaginary where exist a framed landscape merged and confused by the real and the supernatural, in which men and gods walk together by the forest, sailing by the rivers and seek a possible aesthetic between the real and ideal. The Theory of Social Representations spread by Serge Moscovici (2005) and Jodelet (2001) guided our gaze on the understanding what the school is and its representation to the riversides, as well to reveal the relation they practice with the knowledge that is spread by the mystification and the knowledge that is practice daily. Based in Bardin s thematic analysis (2004) we tried to raise such contents combining them in five analysis categories

A formação de professores surdos de Libras: a centralidade de ambientes bilíngues em sua formação

The study object of this thesis intertwines the history of deaf education in the last 30 years in three schools for the deaf in the cities of Campina Grande, Gado Bravo and Aroeiras, Paraiba, the life stories of six deaf teachers of brasilian sign language (Libras) that have formed and works in these educational institutions for the deaf and our own journey, as a teacher and researcher. The study was conducted on the theoretical-methodological principles of (auto)biographical research in education and socio-historical studies on the social formation of the human. The corpus used for analysis was consisted of six narrative interviews conducted in sign language and transcribed into portuguese, documents and personal files and institutional. The analysis allowed us to define three hinge moments of this story: the creation of the first school for the deaf, within the framework of oralism (1980 - 1991), the passage into the Total Communication (1991 - 1995) and, finally, the introduction of Bilingualism (1995 to today). The analyzes show that the trajectories of teacher formation of the research participants reflect the history of the three schools which have costituted bilingual social spaces of paramount importance to the subjects and the deaf community as a group of linguistic and cultural minority. The evolution of this trajectory has allowed to demarcate between the two generations of research participants. The generation of heirs of oralism, which had delayed access to the Libras and lived an education referenced in oralism, whose reminiscences of childhood and adolescence are strongly marked by suffering for the lack of communication, which hinders their social and professional career until today. And the generation of the sons of bilingualism, the youngest in age, who had childhood access to Libras and education within the framework of bilingualism, whose reminiscences are not marked by suffering and have a positive vision of the future. With respect to your teacher formation, three figures stand out as a teacher. The teacher's improvised, closer to the first generation of teachers who were called to teach without proper training. The figure of the teacher craftsman, which corresponds to the image that most of them have of yourself now, understanding that their knowledge are based on the exchange between peers. And finally the figure of the real teacher, which stands on the horizon of expectations as future graduates in Letters |Libras. The narratives allowed to realize that the evolution between these figures is based on the contributions of the other: hearing teachers of EDAC and the Federal University of Campina Grande and deaf teachers of the two generations who learn from each other. The analyzes and reflections allowed to defend the thesis of the centrality of bilingual environments for the establishment of the deaf person as a citizen with full rights, based on the voice of the deaf, muted by the history of education, conducted by listeners

Anagramas do corpo, processos de repetição e representação da condição humana: um diálogo entre Hans Bellmer e Pina Bausch

La relation entre l`ignorance, l`apprentissage et de la création composent un décor provocant pour nous faire réfléchir sur l`éducation et la science. Pour éclaircir cette réflexion, nous démarrons sur les propositions de Ilya Prigogine (1986), pour qui l`art est une métaphore qui représente la science au XXe siècle, les idées d`Edgar Morin (2004), en soulignant la contribution fondamentale de l`art à l`état humain, et Maurice Merleau- Ponty (1980), qui crédite à l`art la possibilité d`un nouveau regard sur le monde, un regard sensible, esthétique. Ayant par référence la présence de ces arguments, nous réaffirmons la thèse de que l`art peut présenter des métaphores pour considérer la science, l`éducation et la condition humaine sur des bases complexes et transdisciplinaires. Nous nous concentrons sur des catégories particulières de la déformation et de la répétition. La première est considérée comme un désordre nécessaire au corps, à la science et à l`éducation, des lieux de métamorphose constante, d`après les principes de la complexité. La seconde est appréciée comme un opérateur sans lequel la variation, l`écart, le nouveau et l`invention ne peuvent pas émerger. Nos métaphores ressortent des travaux esthétiques de deux artistes de renom: Pina Bausch et Hans Bellmer, les délinquants qui certainement se rebellent contre la trivialité dans l`art et la vie. Ils exploitent des rêves, des démonstrations affectueuses impertinentes, esthétiques inaugurales, antiparadigmatiques et audacieuses. En un mot, ils incarnent ce qu`on appelle une pensée complexe. Nous comprenons que les deux artistes déclenchent des dispositifs qui dialoguent avec le manifeste de Merleau-Ponty lorsque l`on cherche dans l "aisthesis" la possibilité d`une production naturelle qui est en elle-même, créative. Ayant comme horizon cette puissance créatrice nous concentrons notre regard sur les anagrammes du corps proposés par Bellmer et sur la répétition exprimée par Pina Bausch. La déformation et la répétition sont des étapes embryonnaires de la création

Política de formação docente na América Latina :Argentina, Brasil e Chile

This work aims at studying the policies of teaching training and their impact in the actors and in the education systems of the countries in which these policies were implemented into the context of neoliberal reforms. We particularly studied these policies in three Latin America countries: Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The policies studied here are the ones implemented from the 90 s. However, the horizon of this study is at the beginning of the 80 s, period that starts one of the four intervention initiatives of education here studied: The Main Project of Education For Latin America and Caribbean (PROMEDLAC), which in 2002 goes into a new stage and it is called Regional Project of Education for Latin America and Caribbean (PRELAC), worked out by UNESCO as a request of government representatives of countries of the region, based on the suggestions of Declaration of Mexico , signed by them in 1979. These suggestions will be in the base of the other three initiatives: The Education For All (EPT); Ibero-American Conferences of Education (CIE) and The Hemisphere Action Plan of Education (PAHE), whose documents are the base to the production of an abundant legislation and normatization on education that created the parameters on which the policies of education reforms were worked out and implemented and the dynamism of our education systems from the last two decades of the twentieth century on. All these initiatives intend to work with objectives, projects and programs that, in some cases, in isolation or in groups, are under influence of their actions in a way that frequently it is difficult to identify which of them is the main responsible for some advances. It is important to stand out that not all of the suggestions produced by these initiatives were implemented as policies, and many of them to be implemented were changed in such a way that they were distorted, even they were a result of a multilateral deal, each country gave to them its own interpretation. Moreover, in all these processes the teaching entities had and keep having a fundamental role. The evidences, result of the evaluations of each initiative, show that education policies implemented produced advances in several aspects. They are still not the ideal ones, in truth, but they do exist. In relation to the teaching questions, there were and are still being implemented multiples and varied actions that did not have the expected impact in the education systems of the countries, objects of this study, but, many of them that go on, are promising and start to have a positive impact into the education systems. Even so, the teaching subject matter, even playing a central role in the agenda of all countries of the region, still represents one of the big challenges to the advance and improvement of our education systems

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Análise e desenvolvimento de controladores preditivos multivariáveis baseados em multi-modelos bilineares

This work addresses issues related to analysis and development of multivariable predictive controllers based on bilinear multi-models. Linear Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) monovariable and multivariable is shown, and highlighted its properties, key features and applications in industry. Bilinear GPC, the basis for the development of this thesis, is presented by the time-step quasilinearization approach. Some results are presented using this controller in order to show its best performance when compared to linear GPC, since the bilinear models represent better the dynamics of certain processes. Time-step quasilinearization, due to the fact that it is an approximation, causes a prediction error, which limits the performance of this controller when prediction horizon increases. Due to its prediction error, Bilinear GPC with iterative compensation is shown in order to minimize this error, seeking a better performance than the classic Bilinear GPC. Results of iterative compensation algorithm are shown. The use of multi-model is discussed in this thesis, in order to correct the deficiency of controllers based on single model, when they are applied in cases with large operation ranges. Methods of measuring the distance between models, also called metrics, are the main contribution of this thesis. Several application results in simulated distillation columns, which are close enough to actual behaviour of them, are made, and the results have shown satisfactory

Controle preditivo robusto baseado em desigualdades matriciais lineares aplicado a um sistema de tanques acoplados

This work deals with an on-line control strategy based on Robust Model Predictive Control (RMPC) technique applied in a real coupled tanks system. This process consists of two coupled tanks and a pump to feed the liquid to the system. The control objective (regulator problem) is to keep the tanks levels in the considered operation point even in the presence of disturbance. The RMPC is a technique that allows explicit incorporation of the plant uncertainty in the problem formulation. The goal is to design, at each time step, a state-feedback control law that minimizes a 'worst-case' infinite horizon objective function, subject to constraint in the control. The existence of a feedback control law satisfying the input constraints is reduced to a convex optimization over linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) problem. It is shown in this work that for the plant uncertainty described by the polytope, the feasible receding horizon state feedback control design is robustly stabilizing. The software implementation of the RMPC is made using Scilab, and its communication with Coupled Tanks Systems is done through the OLE for Process Control (OPC) industrial protocol

Controlador preditivo não linear aplicado ao controle de golfadas em processos de produção de petróleo

Slugging is a well-known slugging phenomenon in multiphase flow, which may cause problems such as vibration in pipeline and high liquid level in the separator. It can be classified according to the place of its occurrence. The most severe, known as slugging in the riser, occurs in the vertical pipe which feeds the platform. Also known as severe slugging, it is capable of causing severe pressure fluctuations in the flow of the process, excessive vibration, flooding in separator tanks, limited production, nonscheduled stop of production, among other negative aspects that motivated the production of this work . A feasible solution to deal with this problem would be to design an effective method for the removal or reduction of the system, a controller. According to the literature, a conventional PID controller did not produce good results due to the high degree of nonlinearity of the process, fueling the development of advanced control techniques. Among these, the model predictive controller (MPC), where the control action results from the solution of an optimization problem, it is robust, can incorporate physical and /or security constraints. The objective of this work is to apply a non-conventional non-linear model predictive control technique to severe slugging, where the amount of liquid mass in the riser is controlled by the production valve and, indirectly, the oscillation of flow and pressure is suppressed, while looking for environmental and economic benefits. The proposed strategy is based on the use of the model linear approximations and repeatedly solving of a quadratic optimization problem, providing solutions that improve at each iteration. In the event where the convergence of this algorithm is satisfied, the predicted values of the process variables are the same as to those obtained by the original nonlinear model, ensuring that the constraints are satisfied for them along the prediction horizon. A mathematical model recently published in the literature, capable of representing characteristics of severe slugging in a real oil well, is used both for simulation and for the project of the proposed controller, whose performance is compared to a linear MPC

A inserção das mulheres na luta pela terra: movimento de participação e/ou submissão

The following dissertation studies the insertion of peasant women in the conflict for land since the occupation process, dispossession and construction of the settlement New Horizon II, in the municipal district of Maxaranguape. It analyses their participation in the conflict Valley of the Hope", that resulted in the settlements New Life II and New Horizon II in the municipal district of Maxaranguape. The analysis exposes the reasons which took the peasant women, after the land conquest, to go back into domestic space and/or to assume positions of lesser relevance in the political organizations of the settlement. In the conflict Valley of the Hope, the women had a fundamental role, facing the police violence, being front line of the conflicts against the repression forces, risking their lives and the life of their families. After the conquest of the land, transformed into the New Horizon II Settlement, there are a lot of changes in the participation of the women. We can observe that, despite the protagonism of the families, in special of the women in the Valley of the Hope conflict, these female workers still experiment unequal social, economic, political and cultural conditions in relation to the men, expressing the gender inequalities which are found in the daily life of the settlement: in the community, in the domestic and agricultural task. The conflict for the land in the Valley of the Hope and the conquest of the settlement did not necessarily mean the incorporation of the emancipation of the peasant women. However, the political participation in the development of the conflicts allowed to the women the self discovering and the beginning of an emancipation process as gender. There are signals of continuities and ruptures of the present culture, almost always stimulated by the organization of the agricultural female workers