Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Estratégia ambiental e agências de viagens e turismo :um estudo sobre a importância de práticas ambientais na escolha de um pacote turístico

The objective of the work was to investigate, from the vision of travel agents, the importance of environmental practices as a decision factor in the purchase of a tourist package. For in such a way, it was established as target population, the travel agencies and tourism linked to he Brazilian Association of Travel agencies ABAV, hearing the Brazilian travel agents that exerted the function in Natal, city in 2005. The election of the sample was accomplished using the simple random sampling technique. The amount of agents effectively searched was of 150 agents being distributed 150 questionnaires, with closed and opened questions, applied during the month of November in 2005. Results showed great variability of interviewed answers in that if it relates for sale of package tourist where the customer demonstrates enviromental concern with the environmental quality. Through multiple regression analyses, it was environmental concern with the environmental quality of the place and the perception of the practical importance of the existence environmental practices in the place as important factor in the decision of tourist package purchase

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Uma abordagem híbrida para o problema de seleção de fornecedores em cadeia de suprimentos

This work presents a hybrid approach for the supplier selection problem in Supply Chain Management. We joined decision-making philosophy by researchers from business school and researchers from engineering in order to deal with the problem more extensively. We utilized traditional multicriteria decision-making methods, like AHP and TOPSIS, in order to evaluate alternatives according decision maker s preferences. The both techiniques were modeled by using definitions from the Fuzzy Sets Theory to deal with imprecise data. Additionally, we proposed a multiobjetive GRASP algorithm to perform an order allocation procedure between all pre-selected alternatives. These alternatives must to be pre-qualified on the basis of the AHP and TOPSIS methods before entering the LCR. Our allocation procedure has presented low CPU times for five pseudorandom instances, containing up to 1000 alternatives, as well as good values for all considered objectives. This way, we consider the proposed model as appropriate to solve the supplier selection problem in the SCM context. It can be used to help decision makers in reducing lead times, cost and risks in their supply chain. The proposed model can also improve firm s efficiency in relation to business strategies, according decision makers, even when a large number of alternatives must be considered, differently from classical models in purchasing literature

Análise comparativa dos métodos de fatores ponderados na seleção de áreas para aterros sanitários

This study presents a comparative analysis of methodologies about weighted factors considered in the selection of areas for deployment of Sanitary Landfills, applying the methodologies of classification criteria with scoring bands Gomes, Coelho, Erba & Veronez (2000); Waquil et al, 2000. That means, we have the Scoring System used by Union of Municipalities of Bahia and the Quality Index Landfill Waste (IQR) which are applyed for this study in Massaranduba Sanitary Landfill located in the municipality of Ceará Mirim /RN, northeastern of Brazil. The study was conducted in order to classify the methodologies and to give support for future studies on environmental management segment, with main goal to propose suited methodologies which allow safety and rigor during the selection, deployment and management of sanitary landfill, in the Brazilian municipalities, in order to help them in the process to extinction of their dumps, in according of Brazilian Nacional Plan of Solid Waste. During this investigation we have studied the characteristics of the site as morphological, hydrogeological, environmental and socio-economic to permit the installation. We consider important to mention the need of deployment from Rio Grande do Norte State Secretary of Environment and Water (SEMARH), Institute of Sustainable Development and Environment of RN (IDEMA), as well, from Federal and Municipal Governments a public policies for the integrated management of urban solid waste that address environmental preservation and improvement of health conditions of the population of the Rio Grande do Norte

Avaliação dos processos de seleção utilizados nos programas de fomento a inovação nas micro e pequenas empresas da fundação de amparo à pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte

Technological innovation promotes the generation of economic value by creating a new product, process or organizational management model, being classified as dynamic and multidimensional. Government intervention has the role of acting through government grant programs to foster the integration of innovative processes in small companies, due to the high costs and risks of development, strengthening the country`s economy in this phase. The distribution of this grant is determined by criteria, based especially in subjective judgments, which are based on the beliefs and perceptions about the technological opportunities and market actors involved in the process, being very difficult to measure the probability of success of the project under evaluation. This study aims to identify the most relevant selection criteria that must be inserted in grants programs at Rio Grande do Norte executed by Fundação de Pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte (FAPERN). Initially, there was a systematization of 18 countries, covering 41 programs in foreign countries and 29 in Brazil. Based on the data collected, we conducted one survey containing four programs of FAPERN (INOVA I, INOVA II , INOVA III and INOVA IV), covering 44 companies and analyzing their responses according to the Likert scale , obtaining the degree of importance given by the respondent to each of the criteria in the questionnaire . As a result, drew up a proposal for new criteria to be used in the next FAPERN´s grants, containing 13 new criteria. It is expected, therefore, to contribute to a better spending of public funds invested in companies subsidized in Brazil

AdaptMCloud: uma estratégia para adaptação dinâmica de aplicações Multi-Cloud

Multi-Cloud Applications are composed of services offered by multiple cloud platforms where the user/developer has full knowledge of the use of such platforms. The use of multiple cloud platforms avoids the following problems: (i) vendor lock-in, which is dependency on the application of a certain cloud platform, which is prejudicial in the case of degradation or failure of platform services, or even price increasing on service usage; (ii) degradation or failure of the application due to fluctuations in quality of service (QoS) provided by some cloud platform, or even due to a failure of any service. In multi-cloud scenario is possible to change a service in failure or with QoS problems for an equivalent of another cloud platform. So that an application can adopt the perspective multi-cloud is necessary to create mechanisms that are able to select which cloud services/platforms should be used in accordance with the requirements determined by the programmer/user. In this context, the major challenges in terms of development of such applications include questions such as: (i) the choice of which underlying services and cloud computing platforms should be used based on the defined user requirements in terms of functionality and quality (ii) the need to continually monitor the dynamic information (such as response time, availability, price, availability), related to cloud services, in addition to the wide variety of services, and (iii) the need to adapt the application if QoS violations affect user defined requirements. This PhD thesis proposes an approach for dynamic adaptation of multi-cloud applications to be applied when a service is unavailable or when the requirements set by the user/developer point out that other available multi-cloud configuration meets more efficiently. Thus, this work proposes a strategy composed of two phases. The first phase consists of the application modeling, exploring the similarities representation capacity and variability proposals in the context of the paradigm of Software Product Lines (SPL). In this phase it is used an extended feature model to specify the cloud service configuration to be used by the application (similarities) and the different possible providers for each service (variability). Furthermore, the non-functional requirements associated with cloud services are specified by properties in this model by describing dynamic information about these services. The second phase consists of an autonomic process based on MAPE-K control loop, which is responsible for selecting, optimally, a multicloud configuration that meets the established requirements, and perform the adaptation. The adaptation strategy proposed is independent of the used programming technique for performing the adaptation. In this work we implement the adaptation strategy using various programming techniques such as aspect-oriented programming, context-oriented programming and components and services oriented programming. Based on the proposed steps, we tried to assess the following: (i) the process of modeling and the specification of non-functional requirements can ensure effective monitoring of user satisfaction; (ii) if the optimal selection process presents significant gains compared to sequential approach; and (iii) which techniques have the best trade-off when compared efforts to development/modularity and performance.