Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

Análise de desempenho de vendas em telecomunicações utilizando técnicas de mineração de dados

Nowadays, telecommunications is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Organizations are always seeking to find new management practices within an ever increasing competitive environment where resources are getting scarce. In this scenario, data obtained from business and corporate processes have even greater importance, although this data is not yet adequately explored. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) appears then, as an option to allow the study of complex problems in different areas of management. This work proposes both a systematization of KDD activities using concepts from different methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, SEMMA and FAYYAD approaches and a study concerning the viability of multivariate regression analysis models to explain corporative telecommunications sales using performance indicators. Thus, statistical methods were outlined to analyze the effects of such indicators on the behavior of business productivity. According to business and standard statistical analysis, equations were defined and fit to their respective determination coefficients. Tests of hypotheses were also conducted on parameters with the purpose of validating the regression models. The results show that there is a relationship between these development indicators and the amount of sales

Contribuições da pesquisa operacional para gestão da produção e operações : uma análise exploratória da literatura

This research aims to investigate the evolution presented during three decades (1980, 1990 and 2000) of using the tools of Operations Research (OR) as a suport to decision making in Production Operation Management (POM). Hypothesis tests were made to verify the proportional growth of a given area over the decades to the detriment of the areas of facility layout, capacity planning, production scheduling and inventory management. Six journals were selected and from them more than 800 articles were used for classification and analysis in the grounds of review. It also discussed possible ways for future research and comparisons are made with other papers of literature review. As a result, it was found that areas of heuristics and simulation showed a greater quantity of contributions in all POM areas of this study

Modelo matemático para otimização dos custos de um sistema híbrido eólico-solar : aplicação no bombeamento de petróleo

This work purposes the application of a methodology to optimize the implantation cost of an wind-solar hybrid system for oil pumping. The developed model is estimated the implantation cost of system through Multiple Linear Regression technique, on the basis of the previous knowledge of variables: necessary capacity of storage, total daily energy demand, wind power, module power and module number. These variables are gotten by means of sizing. The considered model not only can be applied to the oil pumping, but also for any other purposes of electric energy generation for conversion of solar, wind or solar-wind energy, that demand short powers. Parametric statistical T-student tests had been used to detect the significant difference in the average of total cost to being considered the diameter of the wind, F by Snedecor in the variance analysis to test if the coefficients of the considered model are significantly different of zero and test not-parametric statistical by Friedman, toverify if there is difference in the system cost, by being considered the photovoltaic module powers. In decision of hypothesis tests was considered a 5%-significant level. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 3 HP. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 5 HP only to wind speed of 4m/s and 6 m/s in wind of 3 m, 4m and 5 m of diameter. There was not significant difference in costs to diameters of winds of 3 m and 4m. The mathematical model and the computational program may be used to others applications which require electrical between 2.250 W and 3.750 W. A computational program was developed to assist the study of several configurations that optimizes the implantation cost of an wind-solar system through considered mathematical model

Desempenho e background familiar: um estudo no acesso a uma instituição de ensino técnico federal no Brasil

This paper comprises an investigation on the influence of the variable family backgrounds (father school level, mother school level and family income) over the pupil s performance in admissions examination (entrance test or PROITEC) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). From that point of view, the main goal of this research is to analyze the influence of the family background as a determiner of the pupil´s performance in the access to Technical and Professional education at IFRN. Secondary data were used from two databases (entrance test and PROITEC) adding up to 19.226 observations to the vacancies offered in the year of 2013. Aiming at achieving the proposed goal, a conceptual model composed of three hypothesis was developed. The results were presented in four stages: stage I presentation of the descriptive statistical results of the two databases; stage II separation of the campi in clusters; stage III analysis of multiple regressions; stage IV analysis of the logistics regressions. Two statistical tests were used to validate the hypothesis: T-test and Wald test. Hypothesis 1 and 2 were confirmed and H3 was refused. The results presented favorable causal connections to the family income and the father school level variables (with bigger effect for fathers with a higher education degree). The mother school level variable did not provide statistical significance for this research. Based on this result, after this work, this institution is to develop a strategic plan to assist in the success rate of students preparing diagnoses in order to diminish the effects of the variables that impacted negatively

Projeto em Áreas Consolidadas de Patrimônio Cultural: Propostas para a Construção de uma Metodologia de Ensino

Le thème du patrimoine culturel architectural et urbain continue d avoir une place importante dans le milieu technique et scientifique. Le concept s est élargi et aujourd hui comprend différentes procédures de projets d intervention. L importance accordée au thème amène à l inclusion de la matière de techniques rétrospectives et aux contenus qui en sont liés: conservation, restauration, restructuration et reconstruction d édifices et ensembles urbains, dans les parcours des cours d architecture et d urbanisme au Brésil établies par le Ministère de l Education Nationale (MEC) dans les années quatre-vingt-dix, postérieurement incorporés dans les directrices disciplinaires nationales. Nous partons des discussions théoriques et conceptuelles du Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel, ainsi que des principales théories pédagogiques d enseignements et d apprentissage articulées au projet. Dans ce contexte les objectifs principaux de cette thèse consistent à systématiser et à analyser les principales procédures méthodologiques contribuant pour la construction de méthodes d enseignement tournée vers des activités pratiques dans ce domaine. Pour cela, la recherche a été systématisée dans une approche à deux niveaux. En ce qui concerne le premier, basé sur des données secondaires, neuf cours d architecture et urbanisme ont étés identifiés entre institutions publiques d enseignement supérieur dont huit brésiliennes et une française, considérées représentatives en ce qui concerne les pratiques d enseignement de projet et de patrimoine culturel. Trente disciplines dédiées à la matière ont été également reconnues initialement, et postérieurement, cinq disciplines qui possèdent un emploi du temps dédié à la pratique de projet ont aussi été reconnues. Dans le deuxième cas, basée sur des données primaires, ont étés analysées les méthodologies et les stratégies d enseignement de projet basées sur les définitions des matières et des autres éléments des plans de travail avec des observations, des entrevues et des questionnaires en trois ateliers. Par rapport aux résultats nous avons constaté que toutes les écoles possèdent les contenus de la matière, mais peu d entre elles privilégient la relation du projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel. Nous avons constaté que les questions des projets dans ce contexte, même s elles sont considérées complexes, ont privilégié le listage et l analyse du site. L atelier qui intègre les fondements des théories de préservation, l histoire de l architecture et urbanisme et techniques anciennes et actuelles, est mis en valeur comme un modèle cohérent avec les propositions d intégration des connaissances théoriques et pratiques du projet appliqué à la discipline. Basé sur ces constatations il est possible de démontrer quatre étapes du projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel: 1ª) les fondements généraux qui concernent les bases théoriques sur la préservation, histoire et technique rétrospective, par exemple, l appropriation de lois et normes et la sensibilisation de l élève sur les questions de patrimoine culturel; 2ª) le contacte avec la réalité qui inclut l appropriation du problème à partir de ces acteurs, de ces échelles, de cette lecture de site et l analyse de l objet d étude; 3ª) le développement de la proposition qui inclut programmes (fonctions existantes et propositions), définitions du partit (types d intervention), conception (hypothèse et discussion) et définition de proposition; 4ª) la finalisation du projet qui consiste à développer la proposition avec sa représentation graphique et sa présentation finale. Nous concluons que le projet en Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel demande une attention spéciale et doit être présent dans les cursus considérant les principes généraux nécessaires à la formation de l élève. Le binôme projet / patrimoine signifie avoir dans le cursus universitaire les contenus et questions nécessaires les connaissances, les variables et possibilités existantes dans le projet appliqué au patrimoine culturel de façon à ce que ces connaissances soient incorporées dans l exercice de projet et n apparaissent pas comme un simple contenu théorique sans articulation avec la pratique. Naturellement ces conclusions n épuisent pas la réflexion sur la question. Nous espérons que les analyses faites contribuent à définir des méthodologies d enseignements capables d êtres vérifiées et testées dans la pratique en salle de cours, et puisse collaborer avec les nouvelles recherches surtout celles qui ont pour but des nouvelles théories pédagogiques d enseignement apprentissage du projet en Domaine du Patrimoine Culturel

Testes bioquímicos para avaliação do vigor em sementes de Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth

Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth. is a forest species of the Mimosaceae family, recommended for recovery of degraded areas. The evaluation of vigor by biochemical tests have been an important tool in the control of seed quality programs, and the electrical conductivity and potassium leaching the most efficient in the verifying the physiological potential. The objective, therefore, to adjust the methodology of the electrical conductivity test for seeds of M. caesalpiniaefolia, for then compare the efficiency of this test with the potassium in the evaluation of seed vigor of different lots of seeds M. caesalpiniaefolia. To test the adequacy of the electrical conductivity were used different combinations of temperatures , 25 °C and 30 ºC, number of seeds , 25 and 50, periods of imbibition , 4 , 8 , 12 , 16 and 24 hours , and volumes deionized water, 50 mL and 75mL. For potassium leaching test, which was conducted from the results achieved by the methodology of the adequacy of the electrical conductivity test, to compare the efficiency of both tests , in the classification of seeds at different levels of vigor, and the period 4 hours also evaluated because the potassium leaching test can be more efficient in the shortest time . The best combination obtained in experiment of electrical conductivity is 25 seeds soaked in 50 mL deionized or distilled water for 8 hours at a temperature of 30 ° C. Data were subjected to analysis of variance, the means were compared with each other by F tests and Tukey at 5 % probability, and when necessary polynomial regression analysis was performed. The electrical conductivity test performed at period eight hour proved to be more efficient in the separation of seed lots M. caesalpiniaefolia at different levels of vigor compared to the potassium test

Intervenção judicial nas sociedades limitadas em face da liberdade de iniciativa

The judicial intervention in limited liability company goes through several issues of legislative and hermeneutics origin, based considerably on the small importance given to freedom of economic initiative by the participants in the process of formation and application of the law. In addition, Brazilian law, due to incompleteness, inconsistency or lack of valid grounds, put the judge in a procedural delicate situation. Being forced to judge, the judiciary faces severe uncomfortable interpretive situations, of which derive solutions of dubious constitutionality and affecting, significantly, the dynamics of business activity. In this context, and considering the limited liability company as an expression of free enterprise, corresponding to a lawful association of people in order to undertake economically, in exercise of his freedom of contracting and professional action, intended to be offered safe parameters of constitutionality for judicial intervention in limited liability company in the hypothesis of (i) transfer of corporate shares, (ii) attachment of corporate shares, (iii) dismissal of directors, (iv) appointment of judicial stakeholders, (v) exclusion of shareholders and (vi ) trespass. The hypothetical-deductive approach was adopted, building hypotheses to overcome the gaps and unconstitutionality of the law and subjecting them to tests, reviews, and comparisons with hypothetical facts and case law in order to determine the constitutional validity of the proposed solutions. The procedure aimed to reconcile the historical, comparative, dialectical and scientific methods. The roots of temporal institutes were researched as well as current solutions provided by national and compared law. From problematizations point, addressed by the constitutional interpretation of the law and jurisprudence, responses that bring out the unconstitutionality of certain conceptions were headed

Modelagem de dados de falhas de equipamentos de sub-superfície em poços de petróleo da Bacia Potiguar

This master´s thesis presents a reliability study conducted among onshore oil fields in the Potiguar Basin (RN/CE) of Petrobras company, Brazil. The main study objective was to build a regression model to predict the risk of failures that impede production wells to function properly using the information of explanatory variables related to wells such as the elevation method, the amount of water produced in the well (BSW), the ratio gas-oil (RGO), the depth of the production bomb, the operational unit of the oil field, among others. The study was based on a retrospective sample of 603 oil columns from all that were functioning between 2000 and 2006. Statistical hypothesis tests under a Weibull regression model fitted to the failure data allowed the selection of some significant predictors in the set considered to explain the first failure time in the wells

Infra-estrutura para avaliação e testes de protocolos sociais de comunicação em ambientes tridimencionais compartilhados

The advent of the Internet stimulated the appearance of several services. An example is the communication ones present in the users day-by-day. Services as chat and e-mail reach an increasing number of users. This fact is turning the Net a powerful communication medium. The following work explores the use of communication conventional services into the Net infrastructure. We introduce the concept of communication social protocols applied to a shared virtual environment. We argue that communication tools have to be adapted to the Internet potentialities. To do that, we approach some theories of the Communication area and its applicability in a virtual environment context. We define multi-agent architecture to support the offer of these services, as well as, a software and hardware platform to support the accomplishment of experiments using Mixed Reality. Finally, we present the obtained results, experiments and products

Desenvolvimento e testes de software de um receptor de GPS para uso espacial

Spacecraft move with high speeds and suffer abrupt changes in acceleration. So, an onboard GPS receiver could calculate navigation solutions if the Doppler effect is taken into consideration during the satellite signals acquisition and tracking. Thus, for the receiver subject to such dynamic cope these shifts in the frequency signal, resulting from this effect, it is imperative to adjust its acquisition bandwidth and increase its tracking loop to a higher order. This paper presents the changes in the GPS Orion s software, an open architecture receiver produced by GEC Plessey Semiconductors, nowadays Zarlink, in order to make it able to generate navigation fix for vehicle under high dynamics, especially Low Earth Orbit satellites. GPS Architect development system, sold by the same company, supported the modifications. Furthermore, it presents GPS Monitor Aerospace s characteristics, a computational tool developed for monitoring navigation fix calculated by the GPS receiver, through graphics. Although it was not possible to simulate the software modifications implemented in the receiver in high dynamics, it was observed that the receiver worked in stationary tests, verified also in the new interface. This work also presents the results of GPS Receiver for Aerospace Applications experiment, achieved with the receiver s participation in a suborbital mission, Operation Maracati 2, in December 2010, using a digital second order carrier tracking loop. Despite an incident moments before the launch have hindered the effective navigation of the receiver, it was observed that the experiment worked properly, acquiring new satellites and tracking them during the VSB-30 rocket flight.

O desenvolvimento da interlíngua na aprendizagem da escrita em inglês em uma escola bilíngue: um estudo exploratório

The aim of this study is to investigate the development of written Interlanguage in English as an Additional Language (AL) by students in the 2nd grade of Ensino Fundamental I in a bilingual school in the city of Natal-RN. For this purpose two research questions guided this study: (a) which hypotheses could be inferred from the writing development of the bilingual learners of English as AL? and, (b) what is the impact of the type of input monomodal or multimodal in the Interlanguage development in the AL of bilingual learners? The 38 learners were divided into a control group, with 21 learners exposed to monomodal input, and an experimental group, with 17 learners exposed to multimodal input, and pre and post-tests were applied to both groups. A mixed methods research design was conducted (DÖRNYEI, 2007) to involve both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. The qualitative aspect comprehended descriptive characteristics that interpreted the central cognitive processes in the acquisition of writing in AL by the learners. Through these interpretations, it was possible to understand the constitution of written Interlanguage (SELINKER, 1972) according to the data generated by the learners. The quantitative data were presented as the results generated from the experimental design. Thus, they narrowed the relations between the dependent variable the writing development, that is, how close it is to the target form which was modified throughout the process by the independent variable the quality of input (VAN PATTEN, 2002, GASS, 1997, SCHMIDT, 1986, PARADIS, 2009; 2010, ELLIS, 1995), which, being monomodal or multimodal, its function was possibly to alter the route of acquisition. The quantitative results pointed towards significant gains by the experimental group, which had multimodality present, suggesting that the learners in this group seem to have been more able to cognitively register (SCHIMDT, 1990) aspects of learning than the learners in the control group

Acelaração do universo e criação gravitacional de matéria escura fria: novos modelos e testes observacionais

Recent astronomical observations (involving supernovae type Ia, cosmic background radiation anisotropy and galaxy clusters probes) have provided strong evidence that the observed universe is described by an accelerating, flat model whose space-time properties can be represented by the FriedmannRobertsonWalker (FRW) metric. However, the nature of the substance or mechanism behind the current cosmic acceleration remains unknown and its determination constitutes a challenging problem for modern cosmology. In the general relativistic description, an accelerat ing regime is usually obtained by assuming the existence of an exotic energy component endowed with negative pressure, called dark energy, which is usually represented by a cosmological constant ¤ associated to the vacuum energy density. All observational data available so far are in good agreement with the concordance cosmic ¤CDM model. Nevertheless, such models are plagued with several problems thereby inspiring many authors to propose alternative candidates in the relativistic context. In this thesis, a new kind of accelerating flat model with no dark energy and fully dominated by cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed. The number of CDM particles is not conserved and the present accelerating stage is a consequence of the negative pressure describing the irreversible process of gravitational particle creation. In order to have a transition from a decelerating to an accelerating regime at low redshifts, the matter creation rate proposed here depends on 2 parameters (y and ߯): the first one identifies a constant term of the order of H0 and the second one describes a time variation proportional to he Hubble parameter H(t). In this scenario, H0 does not need to be small in order to solve the age problem and the transition happens even if there is no matter creation during the radiation and part of the matter dominated phase (when the ß term is negligible). Like in flat ACDM scenarios, the dimming of distant type Ia supernovae can be fitted with just one free parameter, and the coincidence problem plaguing the models driven by the cosmological constant. ACDM is absent. The limits endowed with with the existence of the quasar APM 08279+5255, located at z = 3:91 and with an estimated ages between 2 and 3 Gyr are also investigated. In the simplest case (ß = 0), the model is compatible with the existence of the quasar for y > 0:56 whether the age of the quasar is 2.0 Gyr. For 3 Gyr the limit derived is y > 0:72. New limits for the formation redshift of the quasar are also established

Testes cinemáticos em cosmologia com decaimento do vácuo

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