Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Fé & Cia. LTDA: consumo religioso na sociedade contemporânea

The present work is an exercise of analysis from the cultural exercises related to movie high one of its raised status more with the deity, the human being surrenders it Religion leaving puzzleds the prophets of its end. The purpose of this work is to show that the religious phenomenon is one of the essential components of the socialization human being. The religious dimension, although to have been kept out of society in modernity - it was cybernetics, is an indispensable compassing to guide the human being in the discovery of its true existencial direction. For this, to attenuate the legacy without appropriate title, overwhelming and despairing of the producing and consumer goods society, it is indispensable to add as basic part to the practical one of the religion. And this practice is specify at the acquirement as of commodities objects , than it is to they are consecrate, exercising um magical power under the assistants from the religion. The fair religious Expo Religious, like the Expo Crest (fair as of commodities and service of the Evangelist) and the one Expo Catholic (fair as of commodities and service of the Catholics), appears at the I initiate from the century 21 at the association Brazilian about to cater the litigation of the market religious at every their segments. The and objective of this research is bring forward those two fairs in the format as of Expo and your contribution at the dynamic from the religion crest at the association he acts

Mercado de trabalho, ocupações e rendimentos: a Região Metropolitana de Natal na década de 1990

The aim of this study is the labour market at Natal Metropolitan Region with emphasis in occupations and incomes that took place at the nineties. The definition of its chronological boundaries passed by verification of existence of evident socio-spatial impacts for output, occupation and income in national economy, with rebounds in all national territory, conditioned by institutional and socio-economical transformations which marked Brazilian insertion to capital flows and commodities globalization movement that took place at the cited decade. It has been shown that such impacts did not distributed themselves equally between diverse spatial levels (great regions, federate unities, municipalities) because of historical specificities in each place in terms of output structures and organization of distinct social agents. Having as its basis the Marxist perspective, it tackled theoretically occupations and incomes, transformations in labour universe occurred at world level, mainly in most urbanized areas, and following that to focus changes occurred in Brazilian society related to the search for competitive insertion in global economy during the period regarded. Special attention was gave to Natal Metropolitan Region, because it was historically a concentration area for investments, productive structure, people, occupations and incomes generated/appropriated in Rio Grande do Norte State. The basic data sources for research were the demographic Census (micro data) made by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) intending to present the structure and the labour market dynamics, having as basis: 1) traditional indicators about labour market; 2) sectors of economic activities and 3) social positions and classes segments. One of the purposes is the demonstration that occupations and incomes keep relation with the restructuring which occurred in each specific sector during the period. Other purpose is to make explicit the factors which bear the participation of distinct segments in production or service execution that make possible the different participation in income distribution. Results are revealing the increasin precariousness in labour market, enlargement of occupations in tertiary sector and greater concentration of average incomes in the social segments which were owners of the greatest capital allowances between residents in Natal Metropolitan Region during the nineties

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Representações sociais de discentes sobre universidade: um estudo psicossocial entre ingressantes do vestibular e da seleção ProUni

Demand for access to higher education to put in test the education Brazilian system in view of the surplus of selective processes of public universities, people without option to pay their studies at this education level. In this context, it has arisen the University for All(Universidade para Todos)Program, the ProUni, from Ministry of Education - MEC, created by the Federal Government in 2004, and that it aims the granting of full and partial scholarships in private higher education institutions, graduate courses in sequential specific training, low-income Brazilians students who do not have higher-level degree. Created by the Provisional Measure No 213/2004 and institutionalized by Law No. 11096 of January 13, 2005, the ProUni offers, however, the exemption of some taxes to those institutions that join the program. This is one of the privileged time for the study of Social Representations by offering the researcher, a living laboratory, natural environment, the confrontation between the established and new. In time like this people are challenged to incorporate the new system to the pre-existing one, aiming it through a strangeness of what was so familiar. It is through this game of social forces that we developed the present study with 196 entering higher education, of these are 116 of selective vestibular system and 80 of the ProUni selective system. We opt by the procedures for data collection in order to have access to the circulating senses, in addition to the streamlined responses. With foundation in Abric, we perform the test the Free Association of Words, then analysed by the software and by EVOC Content of the type theme as Bardin. Besides, we require of the subjects, a writing on the study object university later analysed by the software ALCESTE. The results point out to a representation strongly rooted in social factors such as more traditional socio-cultural elements: the beliefs, values, the symbols. It is unique in both groups of subjects: among those entering by the selective ProUni system, there was a stronger anchor in that it does not make inquiries about the program. At the same time, there is a stronger presence of objectivation, entering the selective vestibular system in order that they explained with a value judgement on the programme. It is suggested further studies considering the embryonic state of social representation, as recent as the social purpose that triggered. It would be relevant even the replication of the same research with other people in order to strengthen the power of the theorising of empiria available

Impactos da legislação ambiental brasileira na exportação de camarão: um estudo com exportadores de camarão do Rio Grande do Norte

Brazilian exportations come growing in a constant form in the last years, stimulated for the globalization and public politics directed toward the increase of the internal surplus. In this context the objective of this work was to investigate the perception of the shrimp exporting entrepreneurs of Rio Grande do Norte, with relation to the impact of the Brazilian environmental legislation in the companies competitiveness at the external market. From data collected from the controllers of the companies, it was used a survey methodology, with exploratory and descriptive character. The results found in this study indicate that the companies, in general way, understand that the environmental legal requirements do not confuse nor help in the search and conquest of new international markets. A little more of the half of the researched companies, does not see the legislation rigid as important factor of competitiveness. However a sufficiently significant percentage, already has a more strategical vision on the subject, or at least already it heard to speak on such possibility

Estudo da desidratação osmótica da cenoura (Daucus carota) em fatias

In the area of food dehydration, drying of vegetables has a very representative position, it has the objective to preserve the surplus of crops and began with sun drying. Among the vegetable is the carrot, which had its origin in Southeast Asia and in Brazil is a vegetable cultivated enough. The principal objective of this works is to find alternative ways for the conservation of carrot slices by osmotic dehydration with additional drying in heart. Were initially defined the best conditions of pre-osmotic dehydration (temperature, immersion time, type of osmotic solution) based on the results of humidity loss, solid gain, weight reduction and efficiency ratio of predehydrated carrots slices. The osmotic solutions used were composed by NaCl (10%) and sucrose (50 ° Brix) named DO1 and sucrose (50 ° Brix) called DO2. Was made experiment of pre-osmotic dehydration of carrot slices in two temperature levels, with complementary drying in heart with air circulation at 70 º C. Sensory analysis was performed and the study of slices dehydration osmotically and the slices without osmotic treatment. The best results were obtained with the solution DO1 60°C with immersion time of 60 min. The drying of carrot slices presented period of constant rate and decreasing rate. The osmotic pre-treatment reduced the initial humidity of carrot slices, reducing the time to the product to reach the same humidity content. Fick's model, considering the shrinkage, and the Page s model, adapt satisfactorily to experimental datas, allowing the determination of effective diffusion coefficients, consistent with the references. The results of sensory analysis of dry product, showed greater acceptance of sliced carrots with osmotic treatment

Gestão de estoques: uma proposta de reposição contínua para material médico hospitalar e medicamentos em um hospital universitário federal do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

The inventory management in hospitals is of paramount importance, since the supply materials and drugs interruption can cause irreparable damage to human lives while excess inventories involves immobilization of capital. Hospitals should use techniques of inventory management to perform replenishment in shorter and shorter intervals, in order to reduce inventories and fixed assets and meet citizens requirements properly. The inventory management can be an even bigger problem for public hospitals, which have restrictions on the use of resources and decisionmaking structure more bureaucratized. Currently the University Hospital Onofre Lopes (HUOL) uses a periodic replacement policy for hospital medical supplies and medicines, which involves one moment surplus stock replenishment, the next out of stock items. This study aims to propose a system for continuous replenishment through order point for inventory of medical supplies and medicines to the hospital HUOL. Therefore, a literature review of Federal University Hospitals Management, Logistics, Inventory Management and Replenishment System in Hospitals was performed, emphasizing the demand forecast, classification or ABC curve and order point system. And also, policies of inventory management and the current proposal were described, dealing with profile of the mentioned institution, the current policy of inventory management and simulation for continuous replenishment order point. For the simulation, the sample consisted of 102 and 44 items of medical and hospital drugs, respectively, selected using the ABC classification of inventory, prioritizing items of Class A, which contains the most relevant items in added value, representing 80 % of the financial value in 2012 fiscal year. Considering that it is a public organization, subject to the laws, we performed two simulations: the first, following the signs for inventory management of Instruction No. 205 (IN 205 ), from Secretary of Public Administration of the Presidency ( SEDAP / PR ), and the second, based on the literature specializing in inventory management hospital. The results of two simulations were compared to the current policy of replenishment system. Among these results are: an indication that the system for continuous replenishment reorder point based on IN 205 provides lower levels of safety stock and maximum stock, enables a 17% reduction in the amount spent for the full replenishment of inventories, in other words, decreasing capital assets, as well as reduction in stock quantity, also the simulation made from the literature has indicated parameters that prevent the application of this technique to all items of the sample. Hence, a change in inventory management of HUOL, with the application of the continuous replenishment according to IN 205, provides a significant reduction in acquisition costs of medical and hospital medicine

A coleção mossoroense e a construção dos mitos: Dix-Sept Rosado, o herói imolado

This research comprises a study on the values and ideals attributed to Dix-sept Rosado, by the Coleção Mossoroense journal. Local researchers demonstrate how the Coleção Mossoroense constructs an image of Mossoró, forming in the members of the city an identity with the place, a social cohesion or creating one forms to see and to say about the Mossoró city. The Coleção Mossoroense, through Vingt-un Rosado together with its family, established a form of seeing and identifying of the Mossoró s population with the city, just because it associated and it was, at the same time, a movement at the same time social (civic parties for example), political (the domination of the Rosado s family) and cultural (the books and theatrical parties about the city). The conjunction of the Coleção Mossoroense as and with a social movement, cultural and political was capable to establish a social identity, a subjective constituent . With this background, it was possible to make a study of the image attributed to Dix-sept Rosado, by the Coleção Mossoroense, through an analysis of the inherent discourse in the works by Bakhtin (1989) and Bourdieu (2000), of and on Dix-sept Rosado in the Coleção Mossoroense based on. The image of Dix-sept Rosado was constructed by the Coleção Mossoroense after its death, and the responsible for this was Vingt-un Rosado, which was the chief-editor of the Coleção Mossoroense up to 2006, year of its death. The Coleção Mossoroense built an image of Dix-sept Rosado as an enterprising man, progressive and innovator, of great capacity of leadership and oratory (a conductor of the crowds ), popular and charismatic, an honest and dynamic politician. This image made by the Coleção Mossoroense, although when enhancing in surplus the qualities of Dix-sept Rosado have as objective to transmit an image of a heroic personage, it has some relation with the reality. Dix-sept Rosado was a man identified with its locality. This can resemble a regional nationalism. The attitudes of Dix-sept Rosado must be understood inside of a broader social context, of a time marked by the populist politics. Qualities also appreciated and developed inside of a specific historical context and determined both national and locally. The Coleção Mossoroense enhances the qualities of Dix-sept Rosado so that the current politicians of the Rosado s family can establish a link of continuity in its contemporary political practice

Análises físico-químicas de polpas de frutas e avaliação dos seus padrões de identidade e qualidade

The pulps are products that add economic value enjoy the fruits of the surplus productions of the same. Have good market acceptance because of its practicality and diversity of flavors available year round. In order to assess the quality of the fruit pulp through the physical and chemical parameters and the characteristics of manufacturing industry, we analyzed 36 samples of frozen fruit pulp of three brands marketed in RIO Grande do Norte, 14 brand A, 12 of 10 brand B and brand C, which corresponded to 14 different flavors, of which 10 have identity Standards and Quality (ISQ S) established by the Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA), totaling 27 samples with ISQ s. We conducted the following physicalchemical analyzes on samples of fruit pulp: Total solids, total soluble solids, pH, titratable acidity, total sugars and the determination of ascorbic acid. The percentage of failure for each parameter evaluated was 37, 04% in total soluble solids, 22,22% for total solids and titratable acidity, 7,40% in relation to pH. The total sugars were within the requirements demanded by the MAPA and ascorbic acid content, determined only in the pulp of acerola and cashew, presented a non compliance in the pulp of brand B. The percentage of failures of the pulps with ISQ S was 59% with brand A, B and C accounted for 3,70%, 33,33% and 22,22% respectively. The pulps which have no established atandards such as pineapple pulp, showed similar values between brands and literature data unlike the pulp of plum, jackfruit and tamarind which diverged greatly in parameters such as total solids and total soluble solids. The study demonstrates the need for greater quality control by the producers with respect to raw materials, processing, packing, stored and the importance of ISQ S to establish the flavors have not yet covered by existing legislation, but already highly commercialized

Ofensiva do Capital e Desmobilização das Forças do Trabalho: As Estratégias Gerenciais Burguesas para a Desarticulação das Classes Trabalhadoras

The problematic that gives shape to this research is the question of the historical process of demobilization of the movement of the working classes in your accented contemporary moment. Their object of study, however, and that it particularizes, it relates to a portion this problematic; it relates to set of determinations that comprise a broader set of determinations of this historical process: it is a set of determinations forged and mediated by bourgeois strategies of management for the conformation of the circumstances necessary for the domination and for the conduct of labor force on operations in work processes for the production of surplus value. What we investigated are, because, the strategies of disarticulation that the bourgeoisie utilizes, under the mantle of subsidies conceptual and interventive of its management of work processes and the sieve of class struggles, to obstruct the union of workers; hamper the movements proletarians. Managerial strategies that intentionally or unintentionally, instill in the social relations of production means to produce and reproduce, activate and reactivate conditions of incitement of individualism and competition between the workers themselves. We shall see, thus, by analyzing means, centrally, from some of the fundamentals of disarticulation in the managerial strategies bourgeois and some of the fundamental strategies of management bourgeois hegemonized with the restructuring productive of 1970, that the disarticulation, and also the demobilization, is a concrete condition, is an objective condition, that is beyond a question that can be "solved" only by enlightenment cognitive, only by formation criticism intellectual. In everyday of the work spaces permeated by managerial strategies bourgeois there elements, then, operating as a material force putting difficulties important for the articulation of the workers, the solidarity of the proletariat; elements that constitute obstacle significant to an awareness of class and belonging; elements act in favor of the atomization of the worker - even if engenders, in the same process, as a contradiction, potentiality of resistance and fight the forces of labor

Interfaces cultural, política e organizacional do projeto caminhos do frio rota cultural no contexto da regionalização do turismo no brejo paraibano

This study is the analysis of cultural, political and organizational interfaces of "Caminhos do Frio Rota Cultural" Project in the context of tourism regionalization in Brejo Paraibano and it presents the characterization, routing and inventory of six municipalities of the Project, as well as the identification of cultural elements used for tourist in the routing of the pond, the investigation of political and organizational articulation and the verification of participation of each producing agent in the development of tourism resulting from the swamp of Paraiba. This is a qualitative descriptive and exploratory study, which makes use of the interpretive paradigm to perform an analysis of the environment where occurs the regionalization of tourism in Brejo of Paraíba and the social actors involved in this process in order to pursue development of the region through culture and tourism, with the collection spot in the six counties of the Project participants collected through interviews with managers, community, government agencies and tourist trade, and the use of the technique of direct observation. This time, with the data analysis it was possible to establish the production situation and its cultural and tourist development in the region of Brejo (PB), where culture has become a developmental tool within the tourism industry due to its innovation potential. It was possible to ratify the undisputed vocation of cultural tourism in the region in question, since other projects being developed with the use of cultural resources with a strong influence on the policies of regional tourism. Thus, the main result was that was seen is that the regional development has triggered a refunctionalisation / reappropriation of space just rebuilding a new territorial organization through the development of a regional autonomy of management, a capacity of collective ownership and the use of economic surplus, a spontaneous process of social inclusion as well as awareness and mobilization tourist (even if initial and shy), an appreciation of natural and cultural assets for all stakeholders and especially identification of the population with its region and its culture, as to achieve regional development is not enough to increase the economic, but above all the promotion of endogenous social factors such as changes in social and cultural values and the integration of social actors in this process. Finally, taking into account the definitions of sustainability, it is considered that cannot be said that the development model seen in the swamp of Paraiba is sustainable, but it is a model of regional development based on the unique characteristics that each municipality has and create a regional identity and have correponded expectations / desired results and therefore the viability of the region through the development of cultural tourism was proven

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Modelo de risco com dependência entre os valores das indenizações e seus intervalos entre ocorrências

We present a dependent risk model to describe the surplus of an insurance portfolio, based on the article "A ruin model with dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals"(Albrecher and Boxma [1]). An exact expression for the Laplace transform of the survival function of the surplus is derived. The results obtained are illustrated by several numerical examples and the case when we ignore the dependence structure present in the model is investigated. For the phase type claim sizes, we study by the survival probability, considering this is a class of distributions computationally tractable and more general