Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Voleibol infanto-juvenil brasileiro: Somatotipia, qualidades físicas e marcadores genéticos dos atletas em diferentes níveis de qualificação esportiva

The elaboration of profiles with characteristics that can be parameters in the different categories of sports modalities and the investment in scientific studies have revealed a significant importance in the development of new generations of athletes. Based in the exposed, the purpose of this study was to identify and compare the somatotype characteristics, physical qualities and genetic markers of Brazilian male volleyball players in the 14-17 category playing at different levels (international, national and regional). We used a scale, stadiometer, pachymeter, and adipometer to evaluate somatotype, attack and block reach test, medicine ball toss, 30-meter agility test , the AAHPER -30 test to evaluate basic physical qualities and the dermatoglyphic method to identify genetic markers. The results show the superiority of the national team over the other squads in the somatotype component (ectomorphy), and in the level of basic physical qualities. We found no significant difference in genetic markers among the teams studied. We conclude that Brazilian volleyball players at different performance levels have characteristics peculiar to the sport, with height and physical qualities being significantly different among these teams. The results confirm de necessity of knowing the athletes specific characteristics when dealing with high performance teams using nutrition, medicine, physiology and genetics specific knowledges to achieve a better sportive development

Do controle de constitucionalidade dos atos jurisdicionais transitados em julgado

The following study aims to verify in which hypothesis res judicata, when it comes of an unconstitutional decision, shall not prevail over Constitution. It displayed the characteristics of formal and material constitutional systems. It debated the concepts of existence, validity and efficacy of juridical rules and acts. It dissertated about the idea of Constitution s superiority and about the birth of the judicial review of constitutionality. It focused some contemporary models of this judicial review and its historical evolution in Brazil, showing its effects towards the current Constitution. It sustained that the decision given by Supremo Tribunal Federal during abstract control of rules must bind even legislative bodies, preventing them to produce the same rules previously declared unconstitutional. It held up that all parts of the decision of Supremo Tribunal Federal oblige, even the juridical arguments employed, in both diffused and concentrated reviews. It showed that, despite these models of review live together in Brazil, our constitutional system preferred the concentrated one, considering one only court over the other constitutional organs. It discussed about res judicata with the purpose of clarifying its juridical nature, its objective and subjective limits and its regulation in collective demands. It explained that the material res judicata is an effect of a decision which cannot be reviewed, which makes the law s will free of discussion, binding the contendants and avoiding that other courts, judging future demands about the same object, may decide differently. It showed how the regulation of res judicata in collective demands, in respect oh their subjective limits, is useful to demonstrate that it is not the material law who must adapt itself to res judicata as traditionally thought, but res judicata, as a warranty of juridical certainty and security, who must be shaped from the debated rule. It presented to view the main doctrinal conceptions about res judicata s review in the hypothesis of unconstitutional judgement. It concluded that the decisions forged by unconstitutional rules or interpretations reputed not compatible to the Constitution by Supremo Tribunal Federal, in spite of it can make res judicata, may be reviewed beyond the term to file a recissory claim, since while the debated law is still valid, no matter if its decision was before or after the res judicata. At the end, it asserted that, when it is not legally authorized, the judicial review of res judicata is not admissible, after the term to file a recissory claim, under the argument that there was no direct violation to the constitutional principle or rule

Efetivação da garantia de defesa no estado constitucional de direito: colisão entre o poder punitivo e garantia de defesa

The domination of the violence for the Rule of law awakened a tension between the practice of the punitive power and the right to counsel. However, throughout the recent history of the Criminal law, this shock of forces has been determined for the punitive power. In this perspective, the present work intends to submit the guarantee of defense to a critical judgment, in search to conciliate its content to the Constitutional State of Right. For in such a way, it will be necessary to recognize the disequilibrium of the situation, but without considering the superiority of any of these elements. The State in such a way must fulfill the function to punish the culprits as to acquit the innocents. Despite the law is far from obtaining a harmonious speech, it is necessary that the defense guarantee coexists the punitive power as part of an only public interest, which is, to make criminal justice. In such a way, the existence of a sustainable balance between the punitive power and the guarantee of defense depend on the minimum interference of Criminal law and, also, of the judicial position in the concrete case. The present work faces, therefore, the moment of crisis of the Criminal law, consolidated with the advent of a new way of thinking according to the procedural guarantees, that will demand the overcoming of the old concepts. The Constitutional State of Right not only constitutes an efectiveness of the regime of the right to counsel, but in a similar way it searchs to accomplish the right of action and criminal justice as a whole. Knowing that the philosophy of the language raises doubts on the certainty, the truth and the judgement, it is imposed to understand that the defense guarantee is no more about a simple idea, but, in the crooked ways of the communication, we intend to find what the judge s function is when he faces this new reality

Participação administrativa processual na administração pública dialógica

The dissertation, which is based on the deductive method, by using general concepts of the theory of the administrative participation in the administrative process, addresses the importance of strengthening administrative and procedural activities of citizen involvement in public administration for the administrative consolidation of democracy in Brazil. The emergence of Administrative Law has particular importance for the understanding of its institutions and, of course, for the different fields of public administration. The authoritarian profile of this area of law still exists as a clear recollection of their origin, mainly based on a relationship of superiority of the state over the individuals. Indeed, does not even modern constitutionalism could print a true democracy administrative, since the constitutions were not properly observed by the Government. Furthermore, only the process of constitutionalization of administrative law legal relations took a more democratic profile. That is, the creation of an environment of dialogue with civil society is a recent achievement of the Brazilian government. As the administrative process involves dilemmas and solutions of state action, because it is revealed the expression government, the strengthening of institutions and principles related to the administrative procedure is important for role in making a more participatory relationship between state and citizen. Thus, administrative participation can be considered not only a mechanism of control and legitimacy of state action, but also for improvement and reduction of administrative costs, as a requirement of the principle of efficiency. The objective of this investigation is to assert as the administrative legal relation, the administrative legality, the administrative jurisdiction, the processuality administrative, the consensuality administrative and administrative justice, together with administrative participation, can contribute to a more democratic role of the Public Administration and, therefore, more dialogic and consolidator of the fundamental rights of citizens. Therefore, we highlight the importance of the administrative process and administrative participation as mechanisms for improving public policy and thus as a means of reducing administrative costs mediate the state

A objetivação do controle concreto de constitucionalidade nas decisões do Supremo Tribunal Federal

The independence of the United States and the revolutions that emerged in Europe in the eighteenth century led to the birth of the written constitution, with a mission to limit the power of the State and to ensure fundamental rights to citizens. Thus, the Constitution has become the norm and ultimate founding of the State. Because of this superiority felt the need to protect her, emerging from that constitutional jurisdiction, taking control of constitutionality of provisions his main instrument. In Brazil, the constitutionality control began with the Constitution of 1891, when "imported" the American model, which is named after incidental diffuse model of judicial review. Indeed, allowed that any judge or court could declare the unconstitutionality of the law or normative act in a concrete case. However, the Brazilian Constituent did not bring the U.S. Institute of stare decisis, by which the precedents of higher courts eventually link the below. Because of this lack, each tribunal Brazilian freely decide about the constitutionality of a rule, so that the decision took effect only between the parties to the dispute. This prompted the emergence of conflicting decisions between judicantes organs, which ultimately undermine legal certainty and the image of the judiciary. As a solution to the problem, was incorporated from the 1934 Constitution to rule that the Senate would suspend the law declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. With the introduction of abstract control of constitutionality, since 1965, the Supreme Court went on to also have the power to declare the invalidity of the provision unconstitutional, effectively against all without the need for the participation of the Senate. However, it remained the view that in case the Supreme Court declared the unconstitutionality of the fuzzy control law by the Senate would continue with the competence to suspend the law unconstitutional, thus the decision of the Praetorium Exalted restricted parties. The 1988 Constitution strengthened the abstract control expanding legitimized the Declaratory Action of Unconstitutionality and creating new mechanisms of abstract control. Adding to this, the Constitutional Amendment. No. 45/2004 brought the requirement of general repercussion and created the Office of Binding Precedent, both to be applied by the Supreme Court judgments in individual cases, thus causing an approximation between the control abstract and concrete constitutional. Saw themselves so that the Supreme Court, to be the guardian of the Constitution, its action should be directed to the trial of issues of public interest. In this new reality, it becomes more necessary the participation of the Senate to the law declared unconstitutional in fuzzy control by the Supreme Court can reach everyone, because such an interpretation has become obsolete. So, to adapt it to this reality, such a rule must be read in the sense that the Senate give publicity to the law declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, since mutated constitutional

Saída compulsória do estrangeiro do território nacional à luz dos direitos humanos: análise de casos

This paper aims to review traditional concepts inherent to the general theory of the state and human rights, relating to the legal situation of foreign, understood as the subject of rights, especially when the is case of compulsory legal imposition of exit from national territory. After the serious violations during the Second World War and the importance acquired by the International Law of Human Rights, values as dignity, justice and equality are enshrined in the legal system and its respect required beyond the boundaries of any country. The creation of an international community, which is governed by rules that its members are subordinated, without distinction, as well as state - based on volunteerism, become inspired by one principled nature of these new concepts required of Global Society, as well as the adoption, influenced by neoconstitutionalism, to the model of State Constitutional rule of law, are opposed to the idea of state sovereignty connected to a superiority, absolute and unlimited power which recognizes no other above it, not even the basic principles or axioms that must govern the relationships internally. So looks for a concept of state that includes all the requirements of a democratic society, that have the people as the power holder, understanding that state element has undergone a relativization, because had to adapt to the contemporary values applicable to the individual, inserting in its concept, the indispensable obligation to protect the inalienable rights of citizens, regardless of with whom he have legal and political bond of nationality. It happens that, to consecrate these privileges to individuals, which, because they contain reference to values with supranational characteristics, are very abstract and are in constant collision course with internal rules, making it difficult to reconcile, it will use hermeneutics of human rights, due mainly to international courts, correlated with constitutional exegesis, in particular, legal principiologia, using, among others, the principles of reasonableness and proportionality, the systematic interpretation of the Constitution and international legal standards. Thus, it seek to enshrine the common foundation of all law , the link between the systems, namely, the dignity of human beings. Finally, it will see if Brazilian jurisdiction, through case studies, is tuned in line with these new paradigms, and in line with the International Bill of Human Rights, the Federal Constitution, the values and principles she hired

Tramas da (ir)racionalidade contemporânea para a composição do mito-tecno-lógico

The plot myth-techno-logic, contemporary, was developed starting from the dualism myth-reason. In this study, we deepened the alluded dualism taking as reference the historical contexts of the Renaissance and of the Enlightenment, emphasizing the discussion of the economical rationalization as conductive thread of the western development, in which we identified the game of the rational and of the irrational, for assure the superiority of the reason. In the context of that game, we analyzed the implications of the modernization, for the education, in function of the instrumental rationality, responsible for the environment of adaptation of the technological instruments to the scenery of the contemporary modernization. The new context is constituted by points of union and of ruptures among the technique, the science and the myth. Through our analysis, we noticed that the basic needs for the contemporary society were linked to the changes in the production means, for which the machine determine the rhythm of the work and the quality of the product. However, the changes in the productive processes promoted the appearance of the commercial marks that, as we see it, they represented the synthesis of the perfect harmony of the myth, of the technique, of the science and of the technology, in the conduction of the economical rationalization to the contemporary modernization. Thus, the contemporary modernization it arrives us for the economical rationalization, developed with the support of the technician-scientific knowledge and communicated by the articulations of the myth-techno-logical

O dia mais feliz da minha vida: a entrada na universidade segundo os alunos recém-ingressos no curso de Pedagogia da UFRN(2004.1)

The present work, based on the methodological principles of the Comprehensive Discourse Analysis, aimed, through the speech of twelve newly arrived students at the Pedagogy course of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, to understand the moment students start university. It also aimed to analyze the relationship between the schools they were coming from and university entrance as well as the relationship between university and their new students. In the first part of the work, which focused on school knowledge, a comprehensive listening of the speeches of the students led primarily to a distinction, established by the students, between public and private schools, a distinction especially based on the view of superiority of private schools against public ones. The abovementioned interpretation is found in the discussion of the structural duality of Brazilian education which, historically, offers different pedagogical appliances among students of more priviledged social classes and those who come from lower levels of society. The overcome of this duality, aspired by the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, was stopped by the advent of a new economic model neoliberalism, which reinforced the differences between public and private when it prioritized the market on the economic, political and social relations, including educational projects. Impoverishment of public institutions and pauperization of the work of professors affected also the relationship between teachers and studens at the current institution. This is how the teacher becomes the greatest villain at the public management system. All of these references concerning differences in the quality of teaching at public and private schools, expressed by the students interviewed, however, were centered in the preparation for the entrance exam, called vestibular, thus showing a view that the relationship between the student and the school he came from is of a propedeutic kind and even so, reduced to a preparation for an entrance exam. In the second part of the work, which analyzed the relationship between newly arrived students and their university, it was noticed that the latter represents a whole new world. This world is seen as the change at the student´s social statute for now he is grown, takes more responsibilities and is socially respected. This change of attitude established by society and the discovery of a new world which requires more independence from the students, creates in them feelings of pride and fear and they feel insecure when it comes to making decision in the campus because now their decisions deliver a greater load of responsibility. This is when students understand they need to develop autonomy, which is seen, in this work, as the capacity to make conscious decisions. Nevertheless students expressed an understanding of autonomy as something that comes as a gift for those who enter university and not as a process that is constructed from social experiences. For these students, the need to be autonomous refers to the relationships with their teachers and the search for information. This search, however, is also related, according to interviews, to public school financial cuts, which penalize university, and to the lack of employers

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Análise das propriedades termofísicas, mecânicas e geométricas de telhas cerâmicas queimadas em forno caieira e forno abóbada

In the industry of ceramic in Rio G. do Norte, tile stands out as the most manufactured product by this industry, being the intermittent kiln abóbada and caieira the principal type of kiln used in burning. There was a need to make a study of the influence exerted by the type of kiln in which tiles are burnt in their thermo physical properties. The analysis started with 24 raw samples of tile, which was split in two groups of 12 samples and burnt in Abóbada and Caieira kiln. Besides that, it was made study of the tax of heat transfer to the environment (for each kiln). After having been burnt the samples were taken for laboratory analysis. The properties verified were impermeability, determination of dry mass, absorption of water, the load of bending rupture and its geometric characteristics, the tests were conducted following the currents standards. The tests were carried out according to the ABNT - NBR 15310. The calculation of the rate of heat transfer showed that the abóbada kiln is more efficient than the Caieira, however the results of tests on the samples revealed no superiority of one over another sample. So the furnace had no influence on the performance of the ceramic tiles

Equacões preditivas para as pressões respiratórias estáticas máximas de adolescentes brasileiros

Introduction: The reference values and prediction equations for maximal respiratory pressures (MRP) differ significantly between the available studies. This large discrepancy can be attributed to the different methodologies proposed. Although the importance of MRP is widely recognized, there are no Brazilian studies that provide predictive equations and reference values for PRM adolescents. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to provide normal values and propose predictive equations for maximal static respiratory pressures of Brazilian adolescents. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study, which evaluated 182 adolescents of both sexes aged between 12 and 18 years, enrolled in schools of the state and private in the city of Natal / RN. The selection of schools and participants of the study was randomly through a lottery system. The spirometric evaluation was performed through the digital spirometer One Flow FVC prior to the assessment of respiratory muscle strength. The MICs were measured with MVD digital manometer 300. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 17.0 software STATISTICS, assigning the significance level of 5%. The normality of data distribution was verified using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS). The descriptive analysis was expressed as mean and standard deviation. We used one-way ANOVA test to verify the difference of the averages of MRPs between age and gender and comparing the averages of MRPs between levels of physical activity. The test t'Student unpaired compared the averages of MRPs being ages and sexes. The comparison of mean values obtained in this study PRM with the values predicted using the equations mentioned above was relizada by testing paired t'Student. To verify the correlation between the PRM and the independent variables (age, weight, height) was used Pearson correlation test. Levene's test evaluated the homogeneity of variance. To obtain predictive equations analysis was used stepwise multiple linear regression. Results: There was no significant difference in mean age between the PRM. The male adolescents, regardless of age, showed superiority in MRP values when compared to the opposite sex. Weight, height and sex correlated with the PRM. Regression analysis suggested in this study, pointed out that the weight and sex had an influence in MIP and MEP only in relation to sex influenced. The mean for each PRM adolescents classified as very active were superior to those observed in adolescents classified as irregularly active. Conclusion: This study provides reference values and two models of predictive equations for maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures, and to establish the lower limits of normality that will serve as an indispensable condition for careful evaluation of respiratory muscle strength in Brazilian adolescents

Influência do pré-aquecimento na adaptação marginal de dois materiais seladores de fóssulas e fissuras, analisada através de tomografia de coerência ótica

Among the non-invasive techniques employed in the prevention of caries highlights the sealing pits and fissures which is a conservative maneuver, in order to obliterate them to protect them from attack acid bacteria. Influenced by the studies of pre-heating composite resin, which has experienced great improvement in some of their physical properties, this study aimed to evaluate in vitro the superficial and internal marginal adaptation of different materials and sealants in pre-heating or not. A total of 40 extracted human third molars (n=10) that had their occlusal surfaces prepared to receive sealant. We tested two types of sealing materials: resin sealant (Fluoroshield) and low-viscosity resin (Permaflo), where 50% of previously received heated material and the other half received sealant material at room temperature. All samples were subjected to thermal cycling and pH, simulating a cariogenic oral environment, and later were analyzed appliance OCT (optical coherence tomography). The images obtained alterations were recorded and analyzed statistically. Change was considered as the emergence of bubbles, gaps and cracks in the sealant. Comparisons of the same material, assessing the fact that it is not sealed or preheated material, as well as comparisons between different materials subjected to the same temperature were carried out. The nonparametric Tukey test was used (p < 0,05). The results showed that there was statistically significant difference between both the materials analyzed, as between the situations in which the sealant material was submitted (preheated or not). On the issue of marginal adaptation and internal surface, seen through Optical coherence tomography, may suggest that there is a difference between the use of one type or another of the sealing material analyzed, with superiority attributed to resin Permaflo compared to sealant Fluroshield, telling is the same for the different techniques used

Melhorando a estimação de pose com o RANSAC preemptivo generalizado e múltiplos geradores de hipóteses

The camera motion estimation represents one of the fundamental problems in Computer Vision and it may be solved by several methods. Preemptive RANSAC is one of them, which in spite of its robustness and speed possesses a lack of flexibility related to the requirements of applications and hardware platforms using it. In this work, we propose an improvement to the structure of Preemptive RANSAC in order to overcome such limitations and make it feasible to execute on devices with heterogeneous resources (specially low budget systems) under tighter time and accuracy constraints. We derived a function called BRUMA from Preemptive RANSAC, which is able to generalize several preemption schemes, allowing previously fixed parameters (block size and elimination factor) to be changed according the applications constraints. We also propose the Generalized Preemptive RANSAC method, which allows to determine the maximum number of hipotheses an algorithm may generate. The experiments performed show the superiority of our method in the expected scenarios. Moreover, additional experiments show that the multimethod hypotheses generation achieved more robust results related to the variability in the set of evaluated motion directions

Obtenção e caracterização de um compósito polimérico de matriz poliéster e reforço/carga de tecido plano de algodão

He was obtained and studied the feasibility of using TPA (Tissue Cotton Plan) screen type, for bagging, with a weight of 207.9 g / m2 in a composite of orthophthalic crystal polyester resin matrix. The process for obtaining the composite was tested against the maximum number of layers that could be used without compromising the processability and manufacturing of CPs in compression mold. Five configurations / formulations were selected and tested at 1, 4, 8, 10 and 12 layers of cotton tissue - TPA. TPA was not subjected to chemical treatment, only by passing a mechanical washing process. The composite in its various configurations / formulations was characterized to determine its physical properties. The properties of the composite were higher viability resistance to bending, approaching the matrix and impact resistance, superiority in relation to the polyester resin. Another property that has shown good result compared to other composite has water absorption. Analyzing all the properties set the settings / formulations with higher viability were TA8 and TA10, by combining good processability and higher mechanical strength, with lower loss compared to polyester resin matrix. The composite showed lower mechanical behavior of the resin matrix for all the formulations studied except the impact resistance. The SEM showed a good adhesion between the layers of TPA and polyester resin matrix, without the presence of micro voids in the matrix confirming the efficient manufacturing process of the samples for characterization. The composite proposed proved to be viable for the fabrication of structures with low requests from mechanical stresses, and as demonstrated for the manufacture of solar and wind prototypes, and packaging, shelving, decorative items, crafts and shelves, with good visual appearance.