Estimativas de mortalidade para a região nordeste do Brasil em 2010: uma associação do método demográfico equação geral de balanceamento, com o estimador bayesiano empírico

One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Ceará (0.90), Maranhão (0.84), Paraíba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piauí (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas

Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Perfil de mortalidade de idosos no Rio Grande do Norte: estudo comparativo entre duas faixas etárias e fatores relacionados

Measures of mortality represent one of the most important indicators of health conditions. For comprising the larger rate of deaths, the study of mortality in the elderly population is regarded as essential to understand the health situation. In this sense, the present study aims to analyze the mortality profile of the population from 60 to 69 (young elders) and older than 80 years old (oldest old) in the Rio Grande do Norte state (Brazil) in the period 2001 to 2011, and to identify the association with contextual factors and variables about the quality of the Mortality Information System (SIM). For this purpose, Mortality Proportional (MP) was calculated for the state and Specific Mortality Rate by Age (CMId) , according to chapters of ICD- 10, to the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte , through data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IGBE). In order to identify groups of municipalities with similar mortality profiles, Nonhierarchical Clustering K-means method was applied and the Factor Analysis by the Principal Components Analysis was resort to reduce contextual variables. The spatial distribution of these groups and the factors were visualized using the Spatial Analysis Areas technique. During the period investigated, 21,813 younger elders deaths were recorded , with a predominance of deaths from circulatory diseases (32.75%) and neoplasms (22.9 %) . Among the oldest old, 50,637 deaths were observed, which 35.26% occurred because of cardiovascular diseases and 17.27% of ill-defined causes. Clustering Analysis produced three clusters to the two age groups and Factor Analysis reduced the contextual variables into three factors, also the sum of the factor scores was considered. Among the younger elders, the groups are called misinformation profile, development profile and development paradox, which showed a statistically significant association with education and poverty and extreme poverty factors, factorial sum and the variable related to underreporting of deaths. Misinformation profile remained in the oldest old group, accompanied by the epidemiological transition profile and the epidemiological paradox, that were statistically associated with the development and health factor, as well as with the variables that indicate the SIM quality: proportion of blank fields about the schooling and underreporting. It proposed that the mortality profiles of the younger elders and oldest old differ on the importance of the basic causes and that are influenced by different contextual aspects , observing that 60 to 69 years group is more affected by such aspects. Health inequalities can be reduced by measures aimed to improve levels of education and poverty, especially in younger elders, and by optimizing the use of health services, which is more associated to the oldest old health situation. Furthermore, it is important to improve the quality of information for the two age groups

A inserção das mulheres na Câmara Municipal de Natal (1988 - 2004)

This work has as objective to reflect about the insertion of the women in the City Council of Natal in the period from 1988 to 2004. We focused our discussion in the context of the politics of quota that has with objective to decrease the frame of inequalities existent between women and men in the politics, besides of to analyze which the determinants responsible for the women's sub-representation. The research still consists of an analysis of the councilor s women profile and how they were seen in that space of power. We analyzed our study object in a gender vision, since this is related intrinsically the social relationships and the relationships of power. The women, for a long time, they were excluded of the participation in the public life, being just seen as mere expectants. This research is informed mainly by studies which discuss the Gender (Scott, 1990), (Perrot, 1988), (Badinter, 1995), (Bruschini, 2002). We also analyzed the power, politics in the vision of Marx (1996), Foucault (1982) and (Arendt, 2001). We tried to analyze the women's presence in the spaces public and private, showing your conflicts and contradictions faced in the society, focalizing the political character of the women's inclusion in the spaces in that are inserted. The instrument of collection of data was the semi-structured questionnaire, descriptive and analytical - critical. The analyses of the interviews show to the sub-representation of women over the years as a determining factor for these women continue in the invisibility. The women were interviewed councillora ex- bounded from 1988 to 2004. The conclusion the one that we arrived is that this sub-representation has as decisive the patriarchal system that prevailed for a long time in our society and still dominates and affects women in all areas of your life. This becomes more serious in the capitalist society in which prevail the interests of those that it stops the produced wealth

Registro da atuação do movimento dos atingidos por barragens nos reassentamentos de Acauã: a alfabetização de jovens e adultos

This work contains the problematic of sub-education among the population that was excluded from school attendance in the regular time, contributing to knowledge production about educational practices developed in EJA (the Young and Adult Education). It focuses on the Pedagogical proposal and on the experience in young and adult literacy in the context of the mobilization of people affected by dam building. It depicts the international, national and regional mobilization against huge dams building and the emergence of the Movement of Dam Affected People (MAB), highlighting their general project and registering their teaching performance, particularly in young and adult literacy. In methodological and theoretical approaches, two interconnected categories are considered: the historical entirety, essentially theoretical, and the young and adult education practice. Based on the entirety, it outlines a contextualized explanation about the stakeholder s situation and, respecting the second category, which is part of the first one, places literacy as one of the basic aspects of an omnilateral man upbringing. The study broaches a wide context of dams in the world, placing the socio-environmental effects resulting from dams building in Brazil, in Northeast region and in Paraíba, and emphasizing the consequences of Acauã Dam building in the Paraíba cities of Aroeiras, Itatuba and Natuba. It presents the particular context of the population affected by Acauã, summarizing a panoramic view about the involved Paraíba cities and learning the conditions of residents relocation. It appraises the educational project and the National-MAB literacy proposal, operationalized by Paraíba-MAB in resettlements sited on Acauã s surroundings. It ensures that, besides public policies including financing, the feasibility of literacy problem solution can be completed with Pedagogical actions attached to the target people peculiarities and immediate necessities, respecting actions connected through one comprehensive and contextualized educational project. It evaluates the young and adult literacy project developed in the restricted Paraíba-MAB area, as an example of a Pedagogical action minimally contextualized. Eventually, it recommends researchers and teachers in general, that are committed to this work perspective, to pay attention to the way they articulate discussions and participation, so as to contemplate these communities expectations and necessities in Pedagogical projects and spaces based on discussion, dialogue and collective reflection

Estimador do Tipo Núcleo para Densidades Limites de Cadeias de Markov com Espaço de Estados Geral

In this work we studied the consistency for a class of kernel estimates of f f (.) in the Markov chains with general state space E C Rd case. This study is divided into two parts: In the first one f (.) is a stationary density of the chain, and in the second one f (x) v (dx) is the limit distribution of a geometrically ergodic chain

Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás

ALVES, Janaína da Silva. Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás. Revista Ciências Administrativas, Fotaleza, v. 13, n. 1, p.147-157, ago. 2007.

Análise do comportamento e crescimento do camarão branco Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931) em diferentes substratos inconsolidados

The aim of this study was to test the sediment preference of L. vannamei shrimp. It was observed shrimp visit frequency, swimming and burying behaviour at different sediment compositions for 24h. Juvenile (0.93 ± 0.29g) and sub-adult shrimps (10.0 ± 1.18g) were obtained from the aquaculture station at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido UFERSA, and held in a plastic tank (water volume 500 L) supplied with aerated water and kept at constant temperature, pH, and salinity. Shrimp was fed by commercial shrimp dry food. The experimental substrates were composed by A: medium sand + thick sand + very thick sand + gravel; B: very fine sand + fine sand; and C: silt + clay. Thus, six different substrate combinations were tested: A, B, C, A+B, A+C, B+C. To test preference, it was used a cylindrical tank (40 l) divided into six differently substrate compartments. A single shrimp was introduced each tank and the frequency at which this shrimp visited each compartment was recorded over a 24h study period. It was tested 54 shrimp (18 sub-adult males, 18 subadult females and 18 juveniles). For each trial, sediment and water were changed to avoid pheromones and residues influence. Shrimp were weighted and sub-adults were divided by sex: males present petasma and females present thelycum. Data were collected on the experimental day at 19:30; 20:30; 00:30; 1:30; 05:30; 06:30; 13:30 and 14:30 h. At each time point, shrimp were observed for 20-min periods, in which we noted down which compartment the shrimp was occupying at 2-min intervals. Thus, for each period we had eleven observations (88 observations per day). For observations at night, it was used dim red light that did not affect shrimp behaviour. At each 20-min period, it was observed visit frequency in each substrate, if shrimp was burred or not or if it was swimming. There was not significant difference between light and dark burry activity for females. Swimming activity was significantly higher at night, mainly at 00:30 and 01:30 h. All L. vannamei shrimp showed preference for sediment B. This animal presents cyclic activity, spends the day light period buried and swims at night

Registro de enfermagem no prontuário em um hospital universitário: uma busca pela humanização do cuidado

T he aim of this study is to analyze the view of nurses about nursing records in the patient chart, in perspective of the record of humanized care. This is a case study, with qualitative approach. For its achievement, was sought and granted authorization from the direction of the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL) and the Ethics Committee in Research of HUOL as Statement No. 422/10. During data collection, interviews were conducted with 20 nurses of the institution. The data analysis was based on the theoretical framework of Minayo to thematic content analysis, grounded in authors who work with themes, nursing records and quality care. With the empirical material, we constructed a framework of analysis, which was identified four categories thus nominated, "Reading and learning from those who register," "nursing records and quality of care," "the essence of nursing records" and "intention and action on the record of the subjective aspects of the patient." The results show that the records are insufficient, even in the case of the procedures performed with the patients often do not inform about the aspects that deal with the subjectivity that surround it, and admit that the records do not represent a parameter for evaluating the quality of care at least at that institution. In summary, the respondents recognize the importance of valuing subjectivity of the patient in their treatment, yet admit to neglect this aspect as significant for comprehensive health care, humane and quality

Atividades experimentais no ensino de biologia em escolas públicas do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil: caracterização geral e concepção de professores

Recent research has revealed that the majority of Biology teachers believe the practice of experimental activities as a didactical means would be the solution for the improvement of the Biology teaching-learning process. There are, however, studies which signal the lack of efficiency in such practice lessons as far as building scientific knowledge is concerned. It is also said that despite the enthusiasm on the teachers‟ part, such classes are rarely taught in high school. Several studies point pedagogical difficulties as well as nonexistence of a minimal infrastructure needed in laboratories as cause of low frequency in experimental activities. The poor teacher performance in terms of planning and development of classes; the large number of students per class; lack of financial stimulus for teachers are other reasons to be taken into account among others, in which can also be included difficulties of epistemological nature. That means an unfavorable eye of the teacher towards experimental activities. Our study aimed to clarify if such scenario is generalized in high schools throughout the state of Rio Grande do Norte Brazil. During our investigation a sample of twenty teaching institutions were used. They were divided in two groups: in the first group, five IFRN- Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte schools. Two of those in Natal, and the other three from the country side. The second group is represented by fifteen state schools belonging to the Natal metropolitan area. The objectives of the research were to label schools concerning laboratory facilities; to identify difficulties pointed by teachers when performing experiment classes, and to become familiar with the conceptions of the teachers in regarding biology experiment classes. To perform such task, a questionnaire was used as instrument of data collecting. It contained multiple choice, essay questions and a semi-structured interview with the assistance of a voice recorder. The data analysis and the in loco observation allowed the conclusion that the federal schools do present better facilities for the practice of experimental activities when compared to state schools. Another aspect pointed is the fact that teachers of federal schools have more time available for planning the experiments; they are also better paid and are given access a career development, which leads to better salaries. All those advantages however, do not show a significantly higher frequency regarding the development of experiments when compared to state school teachers. Both teachers of federal and state schools pointed infra-structure problems such as the availability of reactants, equipments and consumption supplies as main obstacle to the practice of experiments in biology classes. Such fact leads us to conclude that maybe there are other problems not covered by the questionnaire such as poor ability to plan and execute experimental activities. As far as conceptions about experimental activities, it was verified in the majority of the interviewees a inductive-empiric point of view of science possibly inherited during their academic formation and such point of view reflected on the way they plan and execute experiments with students

Condições de energia de hawking e ellis e a equação de raychaudhuri

In the Einstein s theory of General Relativity the field equations relate the geometry of space-time with the content of matter and energy, sources of the gravitational field. This content is described by a second order tensor, known as energy-momentum tensor. On the other hand, the energy-momentum tensors that have physical meaning are not specified by this theory. In the 700s, Hawking and Ellis set a couple of conditions, considered feasible from a physical point of view, in order to limit the arbitrariness of these tensors. These conditions, which became known as Hawking-Ellis energy conditions, play important roles in the gravitation scenario. They are widely used as powerful tools for analysis; from the demonstration of important theorems concerning to the behavior of gravitational fields and geometries associated, the gravity quantum behavior, to the analysis of cosmological models. In this dissertation we present a rigorous deduction of the several energy conditions currently in vogue in the scientific literature, such as: the Null Energy Condition (NEC), Weak Energy Condition (WEC), the Strong Energy Condition (SEC), the Dominant Energy Condition (DEC) and Null Dominant Energy Condition (NDEC). Bearing in mind the most trivial applications in Cosmology and Gravitation, the deductions were initially made for an energy-momentum tensor of a generalized perfect fluid and then extended to scalar fields with minimal and non-minimal coupling to the gravitational field. We also present a study about the possible violations of some of these energy conditions. Aiming the study of the single nature of some exact solutions of Einstein s General Relativity, in 1955 the Indian physicist Raychaudhuri derived an equation that is today considered fundamental to the study of the gravitational attraction of matter, which became known as the Raychaudhuri equation. This famous equation is fundamental for to understanding of gravitational attraction in Astrophysics and Cosmology and for the comprehension of the singularity theorems, such as, the Hawking and Penrose theorem about the singularity of the gravitational collapse. In this dissertation we derive the Raychaudhuri equation, the Frobenius theorem and the Focusing theorem for congruences time-like and null congruences of a pseudo-riemannian manifold. We discuss the geometric and physical meaning of this equation, its connections with the energy conditions, and some of its several aplications.

Dilema da diversidade-acurácia: um estudo empírico no contexto de multiclassificadores

Multi-classifier systems, also known as ensembles, have been widely used to solve several problems, because they, often, present better performance than the individual classifiers that form these systems. But, in order to do so, it s necessary that the base classifiers to be as accurate as diverse among themselves this is also known as diversity/accuracy dilemma. Given its importance, some works have investigate the ensembles behavior in context of this dilemma. However, the majority of them address homogenous ensemble, i.e., ensembles composed only of the same type of classifiers. Thus, motivated by this limitation, this thesis, using genetic algorithms, performs a detailed study on the dilemma diversity/accuracy for heterogeneous ensembles

Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Estimadores do tipo núcleo para a densidade de transição de uma cadeia de markov com espaço de estados geral

In this work, we studied the strong consistency for a class of estimates for a transition density of a Markov chain with general state space E ⊂ Rd. The strong ergodicity of the estimates for the density transition is obtained from the strong consistency of the kernel estimates for both the marginal density p(:) of the chain and the joint density q(., .). In this work the Markov chain is supposed to be homogeneous, uniformly ergodic and possessing a stationary density p(.,.)