Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

A relação entre os determinantes sociais em saúde e os investimentos setoriais e a mortalidade infantil em municípios brasileiros com mais de 80 mil habitantes

Investments in health have controversial influence on results of the health of populations, besides being subject rarely explored in literature. Moreover, from the 1970s, the social determinants of health have been consolidated in the disease process as multifactorial factors (social, economic, cultural, etc.) that directly or indirectly influence the occurrence of health problems of populations, as well as mortality rates. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of these investments and the social determinants of health on infant mortality and its neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. This is an ecological study, in which the sample was composed of Brazilians cities with over 80,000 inhabitants, avoiding fluctuations in mortality rates for common small populations, and ensure greater coverage of information systems on mortality and births Brazilians and, therefore, increase data consistency. To isolate the effect of investments in health, we used multiple linear regression. The socioeconomic indicators (p <0.001, p = 0.004, p <0.001), the inequality index (p <0.001, p = 0.001, p = 0.006) and coverage of prenatal visits (p <0.001, p <0.001; p = 0.005) were associated with infant mortality rate total, neonatal and post-neonatal, and the Gross Domestic Product per capita only influenced the overall infant mortality rate and neonatal (p=0.022; 0.045). Investments in health, in this model, lost statistical significance, showing no correlation with mortality rates among children under one year. We conclude that the social determinants of health has an influence on the variation in mortality rates of Brazilian cities, however the same was not observed for indicators of health investment

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Gestao tecnologia: um estudo de caso no setor sucroalcooleiro

PEDRO, Edilson da Silva Pedro. Gestão tecnológica: um estudo de caso no setor sucroalcooleiro. 2004. 145f. Dissertaçao (Mestrado em Engenharia de Producao) - Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos, 2004.

Estratégias para a organização da pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar: uma análise de governança em sistemas de inovação

PEDRO, Edilson da Silva. Estratégias para a organização da pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar: uma análise de governança em sistemas de inovação. 2008. 226f. Tese (Doutorado em Política Científica e Tecnológica) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2008.

Eficiência técnica dos produtores familiares no Projeto de Irrigação do Baixo Açu/RN

SILVA, Jorge Luiz Mariano da. Eficiência técnica dos produtores familiares no projeto de irrigação do Baixo Açu/RN.In: CONGRESSO SA SOCIEDADE BRASILEIRA DE ECONOMIA E SOCIOLOGIA RURAL,42., 2004, Cuiabá - MT. Dinâmcias Setorias e Desevolvimento Regional, 2004.

Renda e Pobreza entre Famílias no meio Rural do Nordeste

MARIANO, J. L. ; NEDER, H. D. . Renda e Pobreza entre Famílias no meio Rural do Nordeste. In: CONGRESSO DA SOCIEDADE BRASILEIRA DE ECONOMIA E SOCIOLGOGIA RURAL, 42., 2004, Cuiabá - MT. Anais... Cuiabá, 2004. Dinâmicas Setoriais e Desenvolvimento Regional.

Modelo institucional do processo de estruturação de empresas de desenvolvimento de software: um estudo de múltiplos casos

Some authors have shown the need of understanding the technological structuring process in contemporary firms. From this perspective, the software industry is a very important element because it provides products and services directly to many organizations from many fields. In this case, the Brazilian software industry has some peculiarities that distinguish it from other industries located in developed countries, which makes its understanding even more relevant. There is evidence that local firms take different strategies and structural configurations to enter into a market naturally dominated by large multinational firms. Therefore, this study aims to understand not only the structural configurations assumed by domestic firms but also the dynamic and the process that lead to these different configurations. To do so, this PhD dissertation investigates the institutional environment, its entities and the isomorphic movements, by employing an exploratory, descriptive and explanatory multiple cases study. Eight software development companies from the Recife's information technology Cluster were visited. Also, a form was applied and an interview with one of the main firm s professional was conducted. Although the study is predominantly qualitative, part of the data was analyzed through charts and graphs, providing a companies and environment overview that was very useful to analysis done through the interviews interpretation. As a result, it was realized that companies are structured around hybrids business models from two ideal types of software development companies, which are: software factory and technology-based company. Regarding the development process, it was found that there is a balanced distribution between the traditional and agile development paradigm. Among the traditional methodologies, the Rational Unified Process (RUP) is predominant. The Scrum is the most used methodology among the organizations based on the Agile Manifesto's principles. Regarding the structuring process, each institutional entity acts in such way that generates different isomorphic pressure. Emphasis was given to entities such as customers, research agencies, clusters, market-leading businesses, public universities, incubators, software industry organizations, technology vendors, development tool suppliers and manager s school and background because they relate themselves in a close way with the software firms. About this relationship, a dual and bilateral influence was found. Finally, the structuring level of the organizational field has been also identified as low, which gives a chance to organizational actors of acting independently

Cooperação e competição entre políticas no Brasil: os cursos da governabilidade no presidencialismo da catalização

Public policies have been studied in the various fields of humanities and social sciences, from different theoretical and technical aspects. However, there is still a lack of studies that incorporate the dimension that encompasses the political action and its interference in such actions, also recognizing the importance of the institutional setting of the Brazilian presidential model in implementing these policies. This fragmented and multiparty system has led to power heterogeneous sets of political parties. Thus, the ministerial offices, more than assisting the President´s government project, manage particularized agendas, which are party biased and have the influence of interest groups in hegemonic themes addressed by government agencies. When these agendas operate in sectoral and specialized policies, the friction level is apparently low. However, when this occurs in intersectoral actions, such as in regional development, there is evidence of strong signs of competition among government agencies, which in theory, should operate in an integrated manner. Although this is not a specific feature of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva´s government- the period to be studied- there was similar behavior in Fernando Henrique Cardoso´s presidency, one realizes that the expansion of coalition on behalf of governance is increasingly interfering in the outcome of intersectoral public policies, due to these multiple arguments in action. In order to understand these processes, this study focused on the Sustainable and Integrated Development Programme for Differentiated Meso-Regions (PROMESO), part of the National Policy for Regional Development (NPRD). The program provides interface with various government agencies and their public policies in a clear intersectoral design. The research sought to identify and analyze the relationships between government agencies and their programs with interest groups, whether political parties or other segments of civil society, highlighting the logic of favoritism, which poses in second place the integration of actions in the intersectoral policies. Therefore, besides the theoretical debate that incorporates several categories of political science, public administration, public policy, geography and economics, the study focused on secondary sources, using different government agencies databases in order to raise information. It was observed that the interference of partisan politics has been disastrous for some public policies. Thus, the research confirms that cooperative character is fragile within government agencies, often limited to official documents, and that there is indeed, a striking feature of competition, especially when it comes to transversalized policies

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Avaliação da eficiência dos programas de pós-graduação acadêmicos em administração, contabilidade e turismo

The Triennial Evaluation of Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) is made according to several indicators, divided into several issues and items, and their weights. In these it is evident the importance of scientific periodicals. This study aims to evaluate the relative efficiency of post-graduate students in Business Administration, Accounting and tourism evaluated by CAPES in Brazil. The methodology used the data envelopment analysis - DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The data were obtained from the site and organized by the CAPES Qualis score. The analysis was performed by the DEA variable returns to scale, product-oriented (BCC-O), with data from the three-year periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009. Among the main results are the average increase significantly the relative efficiency of the programs in the period 2007-2009 compared to 2004-2006 period, the highest average efficiency of programs linked to public institutions in relation to private, doctoral programs with the present average efficiency sharply higher than those only with masters, and senior programs in general were more efficient. There is also moderate and significant correlation between the efficiency scores and concepts CAPES. The Malmquist index analysis showed that more than 85% of programs had increased productivity. It is noteworthy that the main effect that influences the increase of the Malmquist index is the displacement of the border (Frontier-shift)

Eficiência nos gastos públicos em educação fundamental: uma análise nos municípios do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, 2007 e 2011

This paper aims to measure the degree of efficiency in the allocation of public resources in education from the FUNDEB in elementary education in the towns of Rio Grande do Norte in 2007 and 2011. To do so, we must determine to evaluate the efficiency in the allocation of public resources in municipal education in the early and last grades of elementary education; verify that the towns that achieved higher levels of efficiency that were allocated the largest volumes of resources in primary education and analyze which towns reached the worst and the best levels of efficiency in the allocation of public resources in education. This is on the assumption that the relation between the educational policies of local governments and concern for efficiency in the allocation of resources in education is limited only to increase spending on education. It is intended from the model of Data Envelopment analysis, (DEA), with Variable Returns to Scale (VRS), estimate the efficiency of spending on education and municipal pubic purging the problem of outliers. Estimations show that the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte do not allocate their resources in public elementary education efficiently

Avaliação de economias de escala e escopo no desempenho de equipes de serviços aplicando Análise de Envoltória de Dados DEA: um estudo em Empresa de Telecomunicações no Brasil

This Master s Thesis proposes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis DEA to evaluate economies of scale and economies of scope in the performance of service teams involved with installation of data communication circuits, based on the study of a major telecommunication company in Brazil. Data was collected from the company s Operational Performance Division. Initial analysis of a data set, including nineteen installation teams, was performed considering input oriented methods. Subsequently, the need for restrictions on weights is analyzed using the Assurance Region method, checking for the existence of zero-valued weights. The resulting returns to scale are then verified. Further analyses using the Assurance Region Constant (AR-I-C) and Variable (AR-I-V) models verify the existence of variable, rather than constant, returns to scale. Therefore, all of the final comparisons use scores obtained through the AR-I-V model. In sequence, we verify if the system has economies of scope by analyzing the behavior of the scores in terms of individual or multiple outputs. Finally, conventional results, used by the company in study to evaluate team performance, are compared to those generated using the DEA methodology. The results presented here show that DEA is a useful methodology for assessing team performance and that it may contribute to improvements on the quality of the goal setting procedure.

Análise de retorno de escala e tamanho do mercado no desempenho de equipes de vendas aplicando análise de envoltória de dados DEA: um estudo em empresa de Telecomunicações no Brasil

This Master s Thesis proposes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis DEA to evaluate the performance of sales teams, based on a study of their coverage areas. Data was collected from the company contracted to distribute the products in the state of Ceará. Analyses of thirteen sales coverage areas were performed considering first the output-oriented constant return to scale method (CCR-O), then this method with assurance region (AR-O-C) and finally the method of variable returns to scale with assurance region (AR-O-V). The method used in the first approach is shown to be inappropriate for this study, since it inconveniently generates zero-valued weights, allowing that an area under evaluation obtain the maximal score by not producing. Using weight restrictions, through the assurance region methods AR-O-C and AR-O-V, decreasing returns to scale are identified, meaning that the improvement in performance is not proportional to the size of the areas being analyzed. Observing data generated by the analysis, a study is carried out, aiming to design improvement goals for the inefficient areas. Complementing this study, GDP data for each area was compared with scores obtained using AR-O-V analysis. The results presented in this work show that DEA is a useful methodology for assessing sales team performance and that it may contribute to improvements on the quality of the management process.

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work