Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Reforma administrativa e gestão de políticas sociais em Mossoró: a falácia dos atores institucionais e sociais

The thesis entitled The administrative reform and social political management in Mossoró: the institutional and social staff's falacy. Comprehends a moment of apprehensiveness and analysis in the reestrcturing process of the city, whose process will show the formation of strategies and deployment of its relation with the social political affectiveness. It represents a single moment in the approach of such a kind of experience in the city. The analysis starts from the third mandate of the Mayor Rosalba Ciarlini Rosado, during the quadriennium 2001/2004, for being the time in which the public management got materialized, such as in the operational way of the social politics. For that, we delimitate this study in two distinct moments: the first one refers to the reform elaboration from the creation of the additional law nº 001/2000 GP/PMM: the second one refers to a practical reform from the social and institutional staff's speech. Within that scenary it was seen that the approaching, though partially, the State Reform and, consequently, the master plan of the state apparatus, which were made of theoretical matrices of such a project locally. However, that is a complex experience, that required the use of field and documental research for the proposed investigation and at the same time, prove the guiding hypothesis of it, what means a grouping of areas like: education, healthy, and social development in only one department City Citizenship Department that is able to materialize a new intitutional arrangement, according to the management principles in the public administration at the govern local level, configuring a reform and not just an institutional adequacy. In that context, it got necessary to apprehending the institutional and social actors' falacy as a way to prove or not the presented hypothesis. Among the first staff, we have the mayor's direct leaders and advisors' perception that express the politcal administrative aspects of the reform and, in the second, the perception of the political view of what has changed concerning the management of the social politics

Avaliação de pastagens tropicais em sistemas de produção de ovinos de corte no nordeste brasileiro

He aim of this study was to evaluate the structural characters, herbage accumulation, nutritive value and performance of sheep in different tropical pastures. The treatments were two cultivars and two of the genera Panicum Brachiaria pastures under intermittent stocking and variable stocking rate, in the rainy season. We evaluated the masses and the components of herbage pre grazing in two layers, and after grazing. Chemical analyzes were made of the stems and leaf blades pre grazing in two layers. We used 48 male sheep and whole for the assessment of individual weight gain and area, and anestrous females to adjust the stocking rate. In the cv. Massai showed the highest herbage mass, leaf blades and dead material, and the largest volume density and leaf blade: stem pre grazing. There was no difference among cultivars for the percentage of leaf blade (PLB) in both strata, but the higher the PLB was higher than the bottom. The highest percentage of dead material (PDM) was observed in cvs. Massai and Marandu in the two strata. In cvs. Massai and Piatã were observed lower levels of crude protein in stem and leaf. In stratum 0-25 cm lower nutritional value was observed in the stem in the leaf blades did not grant the nutritional value among the strata. Herbage mass, leaf blade, PLB and proportion of stem in the residue of the Massai pastures were higher than cv. Aruana. There was no difference for efficiencies in harvest leaf and stem between the cultivars. The cv. Massai got the higher accumulation of leaf per cycle per day. Animals kept in grass swards Aruana had the highest average daily gain. The higher stocking rates and earnings per area were observed in grass swards and Marandu Massai. The cultivars are suitable for sheep meat production in the rainy season