Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Modelagem e previsão da perda de injetividade em poços canhoneados

Waterflooding is a technique largely applied in the oil industry. The injected water displaces oil to the producer wells and avoid reservoir pressure decline. However, suspended particles in the injected water may cause plugging of pore throats causing formation damage (permeability reduction) and injectivity decline during waterflooding. When injectivity decline occurs it is necessary to increase the injection pressure in order to maintain water flow injection. Therefore, a reliable prediction of injectivity decline is essential in waterflooding projects. In this dissertation, a simulator based on the traditional porous medium filtration model (including deep bed filtration and external filter cake formation) was developed and applied to predict injectivity decline in perforated wells (this prediction was made from history data). Experimental modeling and injectivity decline in open-hole wells is also discussed. The injectivity of modeling showed good agreement with field data, which can be used to support plan stimulation injection wells

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

O Papel do Estado na promoção do Desenvolvimento Nacional: a utilização do instrumento do planejamento na expansão da oferta energética

The progress of a nation is closely linked to the energy supply that it has to develop its economic capabilities. The dependence of contemporary society for energy requires the continued expansion of the use of renewable energy, and implies coordinated action of the Democratic State in the delimitation of the best ways to make full use of energy. In periods of rapid development, countries need an increment of energy supplies superior to those of periods of regular economic growth. Energy demand generated by the condition of Brazil as an emerging country reveals the need for orderly expansion of energy supply. In reverse, lack of energy planning effectively paralyzes a country and generates incalculable losses in national socioeconomic development. The Brazilian Constitution abandoned the notion of development tied to the simple increase in the gross domestic product. The respect for the environment, sovereignty, national development, and especially the constant and growing supply of energy, promotes the advancement of national economic agents, and quenches the simple accounting increase in energy supply. Constitutional principles condition the rational use of energy potentials, in ensuring adequate supply of energy for the entire national territory. The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy, through its agencies, government offices and companies, establishes and formulates policies and guidelines for energy in Brazil, playing an important role in national energy planning. National development is enhanced by the good performance of the state agencies responsible for planning the energy sector

O direito coletivo prestacional à saúde e o poder judiciário: a concretização do art. 196 da Constituição de 1988 pela via jurisdicional

During the ninth century, owing to the process of industrialization, new social conflicts were showed, forcing the Government not to remain inert. The necessity of answer to these new demands requires from the State some actions that assure the new economic, cultural and social rights, able to exceed the formal equality, according to the principles of redistributive equality and well-being. Among the social rights, the right to health is showed up, which is placed at the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Treaty for the Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, as a necessary term to promote the dignity and the free development of the human personality. Under the Constitutional Law, it is clear that the implementation of the right to health, placed at the 6th article of the Brazilian Constitution, demands a government activity, which usually requires a provision of material goods, depending on budgetary resources. The Legislative and Executive Branches have a very important role in compliance with the constitutional regulations about the satisfactory offer of health care services, besides the correct use of the resources at this area. The adoption of public policies is the way of Government action to the planning and realization of this right. Though, some public policies are usually made apart from the social compromises, to the detriment of the basic social rights. The government has a discretionary competence to manage the health services. That is the reason it is necessary the control of the political choices, through the popular control, the extrajudicial control by the Account Courts, or the judicial review. Owed to the constitutionalization of social rights, the constitutional justice has a very relevant role, concerning to the constitutional jurisdiction, in a way the Judiciary Branch assume your position as a player that transforms the society. On the control of the public health policies, there is a cast of official instruments, judicial or not, to the guarantee of the collective right to the public health services, and to allow the citizens to reach the real implementation of the right to health

Podem os programas sociais e de transferência de renda influenciar a oferta de trabalho em atividades não agrícolas? uma análise para as famílias em condição de pobreza no meio rural do nordeste

This study aims to analyze the main effect of social programs and cash transfers on the labor supply of non-farm family members in poverty in rural areas of the Northeast. Among the specific objectives, we sought to investigate the effects of these programs and individual characteristics on the decision of participation and allocation of working hours of parents and children in non-agricultural activities. It was assumed, as a theoretical basis, the model of neoclassical labor supply as well as the principle that the decision of allocation of working hours, non-agricultural, is subject to the initial choice of the worker devote or not the non-agricultural employment . The hypothesis assumes that access to social programs and income transfer contributes to the dismay of rural workers, in poverty, in its decision to participate and offer hours of work in non-agricultural activities. To achieve this objective, we applied the models of Heckman (1979) and Double Hurdle, of Cragg (1971), consisting of associating the decision to participate in the labor market with the decision on the amount of hours allocated. The database used was the National Survey by Household Sampling (PNAD) of 2006. The results of the heads of households showed that transfers of income, although they may have some effect on labor supply rural nonfarm, the magnitude has to say that there may be some dependence on benefits. The estimates for the joint children of 10 to 15 years showed that the programs have negatively influenced participation in suggesting an increase in school participation, although for the allocation of working hours the results were not significant on the incidence of child labor

As organizações não-governamentais e a educação básica oferecida aos pobres: do consenso da oferta à ação privatizante

This work articulates a discussion about the role of the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in the social policies scenario, privileging the basic education directed to the poor in Brazil, in the period from 1992 to 2002. It is a relevant theme, particularly due to the importance of the NGOs in both the national and international scope actions. The study assumes that the NGOs are instruments of control (social control) that filter the social demands towards the State, specially regarding the basic education directed to the poor. It also discusses the process of acknowledgement e expansion of the NGOs as a result of the political and economic conjuncture leading to the State reform, which had an impact on the field of social policies. A close examination of these complex relations was only possible through the understanding of the third sector establishment, having the NGOs as the main means. In this movement, relevant information of the reality are considered in order to delimit the extents of this phenomenon, with a brief reference to its origins, to the marks of its conjunctural relations, registering the multiple faces of these Organizations and the constutive elements of the debate among different visions regarding the third sector, having the NGOs as a part of its composition. With this approach, documents and publications by the NGOs and the government are researched. Based on this material, the purposes announced by these organizations are analyzed, considering the Brazilian social, political and economic conjuncture. The State of Maranhão has been chosen as an example of this context, due to the high levels of poverty and low school performance, and also given that a great many NGOs actions are more and more being held in that location in order to promote social policies. It has been concluded that the NGOs help strengthen the theses that show the decrease in the State responsibilities on free, public and quality education, and that such principle is being negotiated through the partners actions

Mala na mão, pé na estrada: à procura de uma pedagogia das singularidades

We make many journeys during our lifetime. In each of them we accumulate experiences that result in an amount of knowledge that constitutes our history. The dissertation presents one of these journeys: that one I took along with students of Pedagogia da Terra project from Universidade do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte UERN to think about the knowledge within their memories in their way from countryside to city seeking for education. I used as main references to this task the ideas of Edgar Morin about Method as Strategy, implication of the subject in knowledge, pertinent knowledge, and knowledge reconnection. And from Paulo Freire I used the concepts of cultural identity assumption and dialog. I built as resource of method the metaphor of the suitcase, called by me the trunk of memory treasures . The use of this cognitive operator makes possible for those students bring their memories to the surface and share them collectively, by the process I name as auto-social- biographical narratives. The explicitness of the memories they choose to reveal by means of these narratives permitted me to understand the metamorphosis of these knowledge since their childhood to nowadays. In order to present an archeology of knowledge within these life histories I chose a narrative writing style concerned with simplicity and lightness, where I use the description of facts and discussions occurred during this journey. My main arguments in systematizing this experience are: scientific production can and should be grounded on knowledge diversity and on a more sensible approach to phenomena; education and pedagogy need to take as starting point and fuel for their practices the singularities of the subjects, their life history, educational background and knowledge resulting from both. Teacher s formation programs which students have mixed, rural and urban, background should value cognitive experiences built in the interaction with that knowledge closer of a sensible logic, deeper grounded in land and nature. Doing so, education can contribute to join diverse knowledge against monocutural forms of thinking and educational practices

Previsão do módulo de elasticidade transversal de compósitos unidirecionais através de redes neurais mistas

The aim of this study is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) capable of modeling the transverse elasticity modulus (E2) of unidirectional composites. To that end, we used a dataset divided into two parts, one for training and the other for ANN testing. Three types of architectures from different networks were developed, one with only two inputs, one with three inputs and the third with mixed architecture combining an ANN with a model developed by Halpin-Tsai. After algorithm training, the results demonstrate that the use of ANNs is quite promising, given that when they were compared with those of the Halpín-Tsai mathematical model, higher correlation coefficient values and lower root mean square values were observed

Estudo de propriedades críticas em sistemas complexos: método de procura automática em sistemas tipo Ising e percolação de longo alcance

The new technique for automatic search of the order parameters and critical properties is applied to several well-know physical systems, testing the efficiency of such a procedure, in order to apply it for complex systems in general. The automatic-search method is combined with Monte Carlo simulations, which makes use of a given dynamical rule for the time evolution of the system. In the problems inves¬tigated, the Metropolis and Glauber dynamics produced essentially equivalent results. We present a brief introduction to critical phenomena and phase transitions. We describe the automatic-search method and discuss some previous works, where the method has been applied successfully. We apply the method for the ferromagnetic fsing model, computing the critical fron¬tiers and the magnetization exponent (3 for several geometric lattices. We also apply the method for the site-diluted ferromagnetic Ising model on a square lattice, computing its critical frontier, as well as the magnetization exponent f3 and the susceptibility exponent 7. We verify that the universality class of the system remains unchanged when the site dilution is introduced. We study the problem of long-range bond percolation in a diluted linear chain and discuss the non-extensivity questions inherent to long-range-interaction systems. Finally we present our conclusions and possible extensions of this work