Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Frequência da infecção por Toxoplasma gondii em galinhas caipira e frangos de corte em regiões dos Estados do Rio Grande do Norte e Paraíba

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, a protozoan that has a cosmopolitan geographic distribution and low host specificity. Usually a benign and selflimiting, infection can manifest itself in a severe systemic becoming overwhelming in fetuses and patients with immunosuppression. Domestic fowl are considered one of the most important hosts in the epidemiology of toxoplasmosis, since they are potential sources of infection for humans, in addition to playing the role of important indicators of environmental contamination by oocysts of T. gondii. We studied the prevalence of infection by the protozoan in chickens of different breeding systems mesoregions from the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraiba: broilers from commercial farms (200/PB) and free-range chickens of small farms (322/RN and PB). Were standardized IFAT and ELISA techniques for detecting specific antibodies in blood samples of birds, and commercial kit was used to determine the prevalence by IHAT. There was no seropositive reaction by T. gondii in the samples of broilers tested, indicating that the particularities of intensive management limit the chances of infection for these animals. Among the hens, the frequency of IgG anti-T. gondii diagnosed by the techniques of IHAT, IFAT and ELISA, respectively, were 3.73% (12/322), 37.88% (122/322) and 40.37% (130/322), for both young and adult animals. Amongst the seropositive samples by IFAT, 33 (27.05%) were positive at a dilution of 1:16, in 1:32, 31 (25.41%), in 1:64, 24 (19.67%), 15 (12.29%) in 1:128, and 19 presented titer greater than or equal to 1:256 (15.57%). The evaluation of the presence of anti-T. gondii should be careful, and reagents IHAT provided erratic results in this measure for the specie studied. This suggests the need for own standardization of the kit before the use in epidemiological studies in animal species. On the other hand, substantial agreement observed between IFAT and ELISA techniques (Kappa = 0.62) enables these methods as effective methodologies for the diagnosis of toxoplasmosis in chickens. The high prevalence of specific antibodies among poultry in the region studied attempts to the potential risk of transmission of toxoplasmosis to humans

Benchmarking e regulação do setor de distribuição de energia elétrica nacional: proposta para avaliação dos custos operacionais eficientes

In Brazil, the National Agency of Electric Energy (ANEEL) represents the energy regulator. The rates review have been one of its main tasks, which establish a pricing practice at a level to cover the efficient operating costs and also the appropriate return of the distributors investments. The changes in the procedures to redefine the efficient costs and the several studies on the methodologies employed to regulate this segment denote the challenge faced by regulators about the best methodological strategy to be employed. In this context, this research aims to propose a benchmarking evaluation applied to the national regulation system in the establishment of efficient operating costs of electricity distribution utilities. The model is formulated to promote the electricity market development, partnering with government policies ant to society benefit. To conduct this research, an integration of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) is adopted in a three stages procedure to correct the efficiency in terms of environmental effects: (i) evaluation by means of DEA to measure operating costs slacks of the utilities, in which environmental variables are omitted; (ii) The slacks calculated in the first stage are regressed on a set of environmental variables by means of SFA and operating costs are adjusted to account the environmental impact and statistical noise effects; and, (iii) reassess the performance of the electric power distribution utilities by means of DEA. Based on this methodology it is possible to obtain a performance evaluation exclusively expressed in terms of management efficiency, in which the operating environment and statistical noise effects are controlled.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread