Estudo sobre a detecção de invariância de escala discreta em sistemas com criticalidade auto-organizada

Recent studies have shown evidence of log-periodic behavior in non-hierarchical systems. An interesting fact is the emergence of such properties on rupture and breakdown of complex materials and financial failures. These may be examples of systems with self-organized criticality (SOC). In this work we study the detection of discrete scale invariance or log-periodicity. Theoretically showing the effectiveness of methods based on the Fourier Transform of the log-periodicity detection not only with prior knowledge of the critical point before this point as well. Specifically, we studied the Brazilian financial market with the objective of detecting discrete scale invariance in Bovespa (Bolsa de Valores de S˜ao Paulo) index. Some historical series were selected periods in 1999, 2001 and 2008. We report evidence for the detection of possible log-periodicity before breakage, shown its applicability to the study of systems with discrete scale invariance likely in the case of financial crashes, it shows an additional evidence of the possibility of forecasting breakage

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Mercado de trabalho e estrutura sócio-ocupacional: estudo comparativo entre as regiões metropolitanas de Fortaleza, Recife e Salvador 2001-2008

The economic transformations in the world, the end of World War II, listing significant changes in production structures and labor market in the world. Initially developed countries realize these changes and subsequently developing countries. The changes in production patterns, especially with the crisis of Fordism, peripheral countries further accentuated the problems in the workplace. Flexible accumulation, in turn, was responsible for significant changes in the labor market at the periphery of global capitalism. This restructuring process, in Brazil, begun from the end of the 1980s and early 1990s, being more accentuated the impacts on the labor market in the poorest regions of the country, particularly the Northeast. In that sense, this thesis aims to evaluate the job market in the metropolitan areas of Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador in light of the transformation process in the production structures and labor market and its influences in the 2000s. The time frame are the years 2001-2008. Data are from the National Household Sample Survey - PNAD and were drawn from the study proposal developed by the Centre of the Metropolis. The study shows that the labor market of the three metropolitan areas continues to be affected by the restructuring process of the late twentieth century. It found high rates of unprotected busy at work is more precarious conditions of employment for non-whites, women, adolescents / young and old. We also highlight the high percentage of employed persons earning income up 1.00 minimum wage, and a large number of persons employed in the tertiary and tertiary non-specialist. With the picture observed in the three metropolitan areas you can see the major problems in the labor market that proliferate, especially in the metropolitan context of the Northeast, with characteristics similar to those observed in the literature that investigated the labor market in 1990

Gestão da satisfação e da fidelidade de consumidores :um estudo dos fatores que afetam a satisfação e a fidelidade no mercado de turismo

The corporative strategies have been systematically changing since the middle of the 90´s by including measurement of satisfaction and loyalty of the consumers in their organization. strategies. This essay presents a study on the factors that influence on the satisfaction and loyalty of the consumers, and is based on national models of satisfaction rates. For this essay, the new Norwegian model was used. During the period of 01/06/03 until 02/14/03, a field research was developed and applied to 230 tourists visiting the city of Natal/RN

Análise comparativa de modelos de maturidade em gerenciamento de projetos: uma contribuição ao estudo da maturidade organizacional em setores de engenharia

The purpose of this dissertation is to formulate guidelines for the improvement of maturity models, or the development of new ones, aiming at its application to project departments. The maturity of project management has become critical for organizations that develop projects and want to stand out in the market they serve. For this purpose, maturity models provide paths in order to guarantee that the institutionalization of project management is achieved in the best possible way. Generally, these models assess the organization, define its current situation in managing projects and propose steps to be performed in the search of more advanced levels of maturity. With the objective of contributing to the improvement of maturity models for specific cases, a bibliographical research was conducted for the preparation of a comparative analysis matrix and performed a case study for application of two maturity models (MMGP and PMMM levels 2 and 3), selected based on criteria found in the literature, in an engineering department of an oil company. The case study supported the realization of a comparative analysis of models, from which guidelines were formulated for improvement. The results showed that thedepartment is evaluated in a medium stage of maturity, recording significant progress in some dimensions assessed. They also found that the results of applying the two models are presented as complementary, although the model is highlighted by the greater depth of MMGP diagnostic, considering many variables in their levels of maturity than model PMMM (levels 2 and 3).Finally, directions have been formulated that contribute to the improvement of maturity models, taking in account the organizational environment in which this work was developed

Otimização de modelos de predição da perda de propagação aplicáveis em 3,5GHZ utilizando algoritmos genéticos

The telecommunications industry has experienced recent changes, due to increasing quest for access to digital services for data, video and multimedia, especially using the mobile phone networks. Recently in Brazil, mobile operators are upgrading their networks to third generations systems (3G) providing to users broadband services such as video conferencing, Internet, digital TV and more. These new networks that provides mobility and high data rates has allowed the development of new market concepts. Currently the market is focused on the expansion of WiMAX technology, which is gaining increasingly the market for mobile voice and data. In Brazil, the commercial interest for this technology appears to the first award of licenses in the 3.5 GHz band. In February 2003 ANATEL held the 003/2002/SPV-ANATEL bidding, where it offered blocks of frequencies in the range of 3.5 GHz. The enterprises who purchased blocks of frequency were: Embratel, Brazil Telecom (Vant), Grupo Sinos, Neovia and WKVE, each one with operations spread in some regions of Brazil. For this and other wireless communications systems are implemented effectively, many efforts have been invested in attempts to developing simulation methods for coverage prediction that is close to reality as much as possible so that they may become believers and indispensable tools to design wireless communications systems. In this work wasm developed a genetic algorithm (GA's) that is able to optimize the models for predicting propagation loss at applicable frequency range of 3.5 GHz, thus enabling an estimate of the signal closer to reality to avoid significant errors in planning and implementation a system of wireless communication

Uso do GPR na geração de modelos estáticos 3D para o planejamento de lavra de minerais pesados depositados em dunas eólicas

This project was developed as a partnership between the Laboratory of Stratigraphical Analyses of the Geology Department of UFRN and the company Millennium Inorganic Chemicals Mineração Ltda. This company is located in the north end of the paraiban coast, in the municipal district of Mataraca. Millennium has as main prospected product, heavy minerals as ilmenita, rutilo and zircon presents in the sands of the dunes. These dunes are predominantly inactive, and overlap the superior portion of Barreiras Formation rocks. The mining happens with the use of a dredge that is emerged at an artificial lake on the dunes. This dredge removes sand dunes of the bottom lake (after it disassembles of the lake borders with water jets) and directs for the concentration plant, through piping where the minerals are then separate. The present work consisted in the acquisition external geometries of the dunes, where in the end a 3D Static Model could be set up of these sedimentary deposits with emphasis in the behavior of the structural top of Barreiras Formation rocks (inferior limit of the deposit). The knowledge of this surface is important in the phase of the plowing planning for the company, because a calculation mistake can do with that the dredge works too close of this limit, taking the risk that fragments can cause obstruction in the dredge generating a financial damage so much in the equipment repair as for the stopped days production. During the field stages (accomplished in 2006 and 2007) topographical techniques risings were used with Total Station and Geodesic GPS as well as shallow geophysical acquisitions with GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar). It was acquired almost 10,4km of topography and 10km of profiles GPR. The Geodesic GPS was used for the data geopositioning and topographical rising of a traverse line with 630m of extension in the stage of 2007. The GPR was shown a reliable method, ecologically clean, fast acquisition and with a low cost in relation to traditional methods as surveys. The main advantage of this equipment is obtain a continuous information to superior surface Barreiras Formation rocks. The static models 3D were elaborated starting from the obtained data being used two specific softwares for visualization 3D: GoCAD 2.0.8 and Datamine. The visualization 3D allows a better understanding of the Barreiras surface behavior as well as it makes possible the execution of several types of measurements, favoring like calculations and allowing that procedures used for mineral extraction is used with larger safety