Estimação paramétrica e não-paramétrica em modelos de markov ocultos

In this work we study the Hidden Markov Models with finite as well as general state space. In the finite case, the forward and backward algorithms are considered and the probability of a given observed sequence is computed. Next, we use the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. In the general case, the kernel estimators are used and to built a sequence of estimators that converge in L1-norm to the density function of the observable process

Algoritmos genéticos: uso de lógica nebulosa e análise de convergência por cadeia de Markov

In this work, the Markov chain will be the tool used in the modeling and analysis of convergence of the genetic algorithm, both the standard version as for the other versions that allows the genetic algorithm. In addition, we intend to compare the performance of the standard version with the fuzzy version, believing that this version gives the genetic algorithm a great ability to find a global optimum, own the global optimization algorithms. The choice of this algorithm is due to the fact that it has become, over the past thirty yares, one of the more importan tool used to find a solution of de optimization problem. This choice is due to its effectiveness in finding a good quality solution to the problem, considering that the knowledge of a good quality solution becomes acceptable given that there may not be another algorithm able to get the optimal solution for many of these problems. However, this algorithm can be set, taking into account, that it is not only dependent on how the problem is represented as but also some of the operators are defined, to the standard version of this, when the parameters are kept fixed, to their versions with variables parameters. Therefore to achieve good performance with the aforementioned algorithm is necessary that it has an adequate criterion in the choice of its parameters, especially the rate of mutation and crossover rate or even the size of the population. It is important to remember that those implementations in which parameters are kept fixed throughout the execution, the modeling algorithm by Markov chain results in a homogeneous chain and when it allows the variation of parameters during the execution, the Markov chain that models becomes be non - homogeneous. Therefore, in an attempt to improve the algorithm performance, few studies have tried to make the setting of the parameters through strategies that capture the intrinsic characteristics of the problem. These characteristics are extracted from the present state of execution, in order to identify and preserve a pattern related to a solution of good quality and at the same time that standard discarding of low quality. Strategies for feature extraction can either use precise techniques as fuzzy techniques, in the latter case being made through a fuzzy controller. A Markov chain is used for modeling and convergence analysis of the algorithm, both in its standard version as for the other. In order to evaluate the performance of a non-homogeneous algorithm tests will be applied to compare the standard fuzzy algorithm with the genetic algorithm, and the rate of change adjusted by a fuzzy controller. To do so, pick up optimization problems whose number of solutions varies exponentially with the number of variables

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e omissão nas covariáveis

In this work we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev (1993) that are considered in a competing risk setting. Covariates are introduced for modeling the cure rate and we allow some covariates to have missing values. We consider only the cases by which the missing covariates are categorical and implement the EM algorithm via the method of weights for maximum likelihood estimation. We present a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to compare the properties of the estimators based on this method with those estimators under the complete case scenario. We also evaluate, in this experiment, the impact in the parameter estimates when we increase the proportion of immune and censored individuals among the not immune one. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with a real data set involving the time until the graduation for the undergraduate course of Statistics of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Filogenia molecular das enzimas isocitrato liase e malato sintase e sua evolução em Viridiplanta

The plant metabolism consists of a complex network of physical and chemical events resulting in photosynthesis, respiration, synthesis and degradation of organic compounds. This is only possible due to the different kinds of responses to many environmental variations that a plant could be subject through evolution, leading also to conquering new surroundings. The glyoxylate cycle is a metabolic pathway found in glyoxysomes plant, which has unique role in the seedling establishment. Considered as a variation of the citric acid cycle, it uses an acetyl coenzyme A molecule, derived from lipids beta-oxidation to synthesize compounds which are used in carbohydrate synthesis. The Malate synthase (MLS) and Isocitrate lyase (ICL) enzyme of this cycle are unique and essential in regulating the biosynthesis of carbohydrates. Because of the absence of decarboxylation steps as rate-limiting steps, detailed studies of molecular phylogeny and evolution of these proteins enables the elucidation of the effects of this route presence in the evolutionary processes involved in their distribution across the genome from different plant species. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a relationship between the molecular evolution of the characteristics of enzymes from the glyoxylate cycle (isocitrate lyase and malate synthase) and their molecular phylogeny, among green plants (Viridiplantae). For this, amino acid and nucleotide sequences were used, from online repositories as UniProt and Genbank. Sequences were aligned and then subjected to an analysis of the best-fit substitution models. The phylogeny was rebuilt by distance methods (neighbor-joining) and discrete methods (maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis). The identification of structural patterns in the evolution of the enzymes was made through homology modeling and structure prediction from protein sequences. Based on comparative analyzes of in silico models and from the results of phylogenetic inferences, both enzymes show significant structure conservation and their topologies in agreement with two processes of selection and specialization of the genes. Thus, confirming the relevance of new studies to elucidate the plant metabolism from an evolutionary perspective

Gato-do-mato-pequeno (Leopardus tigrinus) na Caatinga: ocupação e padrão de atividade de um felídeo ameaçado e pouco conhecido na floresta tropical seca do nordeste do Brasil

While the carnivores are considered regulators and structuring of natural communities are also extremely threatened by human activities. Endangered little-spotted-cat (Leopardus tigrinus) is one of the lesser known species from the Neotropical cats. In this work we investigate the occupancy and the activity pattern of L. tigrinus in Caatinga of Rio Grande do Norte testing: 1) how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence their occupation and 2) how biotic and abiotic factors influence their activity pattern. For this we raised occurrence data of species in 10 priority areas for conservation. We built hierarchical models of occupancy based on maximum likelihood to represent biological hypotheses which were ranked using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). According to the results the feline occupancy is more likely away from rural settlements and in areas with a higher proportion of woody vegetation. The opportunistic killing of L. tigrinus and in retaliation for poultry predation close to residential areas can explain this result; as well as more complex vegetation structure can better serve as refuge and ensure more food. Analyzing the records of the species through circular statistics we conclude that the activity pattern is mostly nocturnal, although considerable crepuscular and a small diurnal activity. L. tigrinus activity was directly affected by the availability of small terrestrial mammals, which are essentially nocturnal. In addition, the temperatures recorded in the environment directly and indirectly affect the activity of the little-spotted-cat, as also influence the activity of their potential prey. Generally, the cats were more active when possible prey were active, and this happened at night when lower temperatures are recorded. Moreover, the different lunar phases did not affect the activity pattern. The results improve the understanding of an endangered feline inhabiting the Caatinga biome, and thus can help develop conservation and management strategies, as well as in planning future research in this semi-arid ecosystem.

Variabilidade genética de Leishmania spp. circulantes entre seres humanos e cães e infecção de flebotomíneos em áreas endêmicas para as leishmanioses no Rio Grande do Norte

Leishmania infantum is the main etiologic agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the New World. The pattern of distribution of leishmaniasis has changed substantially and has presented an emerging profile within the periphery of the Large Urban Centers. Leishmania infection can compromise skin, mucosa and viscera. Only 10% of the individuals infected develop the disease and 90% of human infection is asymptomatic. The main factors involved in the development of the disease are the host immune response, the vector’s species and the parasite’s genetic content. The sequencing of Leishmania isolated seeks to increase the understanding of the symptoms of individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity of circulating Leishmania strains among humans, and symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs from endemic areas of Rio Grande do Norte State and analyze sandflies from endemic areas for cutaneous and visceral disease. The genetic variability was evaluated by the use of markers hsp70 , ITS1 and a whole genome sequencing was also carried out. The amplified hsp70 and ITS1 of samples were analyzed and assembled using a Phred / Phrap package. The dendograms were constructed using the same methodology, but adding 500 bootstraps, followed by inferences on the relationships between Leishmania variants. The sequences of the 20 Brazilian isolates were mapped to the reference genome L. infantum JPCM5, using the Bowtie2 program and the identification of 36 contigs. The information of the valid SNPs were used in the PCA. SNPs were visualized by Geneious 7.1 and IGV. The genome annotations were transferred to their respective chromosomes and displayed on Geneious. The matching sequences of all chromosomes were aligned using Mauve. The phylogenetic trees were calculated according to maximum likelihood and JTT models. Sandflies were analyzed by PCR for the identification of Leishmania infection, a blood meal source and GAPDH sand fly. As a result, hsp70 and ITS1 were not capable of identifying genetic variability among human isolates from symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs. The complete sequencing of the 20 Brazilian isolates revealed a strong similarity between the circulating Leishmania strains in Rio Grande do Norte. The isolates collected in the city of Natal from humans and canines remained grouped in all analyzes, suggesting that there is genotypic and geographic proximity among the isolates. The isolated samples in the 1990s had a higher genotypic diversity when compared to freshly isolated samples. All isolates presented 36 chromosomes with variable ploidy among them, no correlation was found between the number of amastina genes copies, gp63, A2 and SSG with such clinic forms. In general, we did not find correlation between symptomatic and asymptomatic clinical forms and the gene content of the Brazilian isolates of Leishmania. 34,28% of the sandflies collected in the upper west region were L. longipalpis and the main sources of blood meal were humans, dogs and chickens.

Variabilidade genética de Leishmania spp. circulantes entre seres humanos e cães e infecção de flebotomíneos em áreas endêmicas para as leishmanioses no Rio Grande do Norte

Leishmania infantum is the main etiologic agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the New World. The pattern of distribution of leishmaniasis has changed substantially and has presented an emerging profile within the periphery of the Large Urban Centers. Leishmania infection can compromise skin, mucosa and viscera. Only 10% of the individuals infected develop the disease and 90% of human infection is asymptomatic. The main factors involved in the development of the disease are the host immune response, the vector’s species and the parasite’s genetic content. The sequencing of Leishmania isolated seeks to increase the understanding of the symptoms of individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity of circulating Leishmania strains among humans, and symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs from endemic areas of Rio Grande do Norte State and analyze sandflies from endemic areas for cutaneous and visceral disease. The genetic variability was evaluated by the use of markers hsp70 , ITS1 and a whole genome sequencing was also carried out. The amplified hsp70 and ITS1 of samples were analyzed and assembled using a Phred / Phrap package. The dendograms were constructed using the same methodology, but adding 500 bootstraps, followed by inferences on the relationships between Leishmania variants. The sequences of the 20 Brazilian isolates were mapped to the reference genome L. infantum JPCM5, using the Bowtie2 program and the identification of 36 contigs. The information of the valid SNPs were used in the PCA. SNPs were visualized by Geneious 7.1 and IGV. The genome annotations were transferred to their respective chromosomes and displayed on Geneious. The matching sequences of all chromosomes were aligned using Mauve. The phylogenetic trees were calculated according to maximum likelihood and JTT models. Sandflies were analyzed by PCR for the identification of Leishmania infection, a blood meal source and GAPDH sand fly. As a result, hsp70 and ITS1 were not capable of identifying genetic variability among human isolates from symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs. The complete sequencing of the 20 Brazilian isolates revealed a strong similarity between the circulating Leishmania strains in Rio Grande do Norte. The isolates collected in the city of Natal from humans and canines remained grouped in all analyzes, suggesting that there is genotypic and geographic proximity among the isolates. The isolated samples in the 1990s had a higher genotypic diversity when compared to freshly isolated samples. All isolates presented 36 chromosomes with variable ploidy among them, no correlation was found between the number of amastina genes copies, gp63, A2 and SSG with such clinic forms. In general, we did not find correlation between symptomatic and asymptomatic clinical forms and the gene content of the Brazilian isolates of Leishmania. 34,28% of the sandflies collected in the upper west region were L. longipalpis and the main sources of blood meal were humans, dogs and chickens.