Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Modelo de risco com dependência entre os valores das indenizações e seus intervalos entre ocorrências

We present a dependent risk model to describe the surplus of an insurance portfolio, based on the article "A ruin model with dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals"(Albrecher and Boxma [1]). An exact expression for the Laplace transform of the survival function of the surplus is derived. The results obtained are illustrated by several numerical examples and the case when we ignore the dependence structure present in the model is investigated. For the phase type claim sizes, we study by the survival probability, considering this is a class of distributions computationally tractable and more general

Usando a história da resolução de alguns problemas para introduzir conceitos: sistemas lineares, determinantes e matrizes.

In this work we studied the method to solving linear equations system, presented in the book titled "The nine chapters on the mathematical art", which was written in the first century of this era. This work has the intent of showing how the mathematics history can be used to motivate the introduction of some topics in high school. Through observations of patterns which repeats itself in the presented method, we were able to introduce, in a very natural way, the concept of linear equations, linear equations system, solution of linear equations, determinants and matrices, besides the Laplacian development for determinants calculations of square matrices of order bigger than 3, then considering some of their general applications