Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Distribuição dos recursos do FNE para o setor turístico entre os estados nordestinos, no período de 1998/2004

The work aims to analyze the criteria that supported the geographic distribution of credit with FNE funds for the private tourism sector in the period 1998-2004 the Northeast, which is the maturing of a significant part of investments in the region I PRODETUR . The working hypothesis is that the credit allocation for the tourism industry, with FNE funds among the Northeastern states during the period analyzed broke with the trend towards concentration of credit in the richer economies of the region. The investigation concluded that there is enough evidence to enhance the degree of confidence in that hypothesis. However, the allocation criteria do not only benefited the poorest economies, nor directed lending while building on the weight that the tourism sector held in state economies