Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Quintosana e seus derivados conjugados com ácido gálico: avaliação de seu potencial antioxidante e de interferência na formação de cristais de oxalato de cálcio

Chitin is the second most abundant polysaccharide in nature and its derivative chitosan has been widely studied due to its unique chemical and pharmacological properties. However, studies show that when this molecule is used as food, drug, etc. it tends to accumulate in renal tissue and promotes an increase in calcium excretion. Nevertheless, the effect of chitosan on the formation of calcium oxalate (OxCa) crystals has never been evaluated. The formation of kidney stones (urolithiasis) is the disease that most often affects the kidneys and the urinary system. In addition, this is a disease with high prevalence and recurrence. Many molecules with antioxidant activity have been shown to decrease the potential for in vitro OxCa crystals formation. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of low molecular weight chitosan and its derivatives conjugated to gallic acid (AG) as antioxidant and inhibitor of OxCa crystals formation. The physico-chemical analysis confirmed the identity of chitosan. This molecule was subjected to five antioxidant tests and showed an excellent copper chelating activity. However, chitosan did not show other significant antioxidant activity. When chitosan was subjected to in vitro crystal formation tests, it increased the number of OxCa monohydrate crystals, modified the morphology of the crystals, modified the proportions between populations of crystals in solution and increased the zeta potential of these crystals formed. Four molecules of chitosan conjugated with GA were obtained. The physico-chemical analysis confirmed that chitosan and AG were covalently bonded. However, the amount of GA liked to chitosan did not increase even when 10 times more GA was used in experiment. When these derivatives were subjected to antioxidant tests, all chitosan conjugates showed higher antioxidant potential than their precursors. However, they showed different activity between them, which indicating that the position where AG is conjugated is an important factor for chitosan-GA activity. When conjugated chitosans were submitted to in vitro crystal formation tests, a reduction in the crystals number was observed when compared with those formed in the presence of unconjugated chitosan. Chitosan has a strong capacity for inducing OxCa monohydrate crystal formation, as well as modify their morphology and zeta potential. Over all, the process of conjugating AG to chitosan led to an increase in antioxidant potential of this molecule and was also able to decrease its capacity of inducing in vitro crystal formation

O projeto arquitetônico e a antecipação do projeto de segurança contra incêndio: interferência mútua, interação necessária

The great demand for Federal Institutions of High Education (IFES) design, triggered by the favourable political moment, boosts the public works market and brings with it the stigma of seeking the lowest cost and meet the federal Law 8.666/93 (Bids). In this context, this research makes an analysis of compliance with Fire Safety’s normative requirements in IFES’s architectural designs, taking this point as an evaluation of quality of designs. For the study, were used, IFES’s designs, specifically from UFERSA – Universidade Federal Rural do Semiárido and UFRN – Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, selected by the relationship use x public served and yet, in the replication of these buildings’ construction. The research was developed through the identification of the Fire Safety applicable legislation to the designs in question, with the determination of the demanded conditions that are architect’s autonomy or that affect the architectural design. Tabulated the requirements, through data collection and measures gathered in the blueprints, was made a comparison and verification of the compliance with these. The results of this evaluation reveal that the minimum requirements was not fulfilled and that IFES’s architectural designs, taken as object in this study, certainly will suffer restrictions in their regularization process with the Fire Department. It is concluded that is necessary an improvement in the IFES’s designs to meet the minimum fire safety regulations and improvement in quality. Moreover, the results direct to the understanding that level of knowledge about Fire Safety received in undergraduate by architects is insufficient for appropriate elaboration of architectural designs in this area.