Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Ne bis in idem: limites jurídico-constitucionais à persecução penal

This legal research aims to demonstrate the prohibition in the Brazilian criminal system of a multiple imputation for the same fact in a simultaneous or successive way. For that it is developed a different idea of the subject. Through comparative, eletronic and bibliographical researches, the dissertation was accomplished in a way to establish the content of the foundations of the criminal procedural emphasizing as fundamental premise the values of the Constitution. In the first section it was demonstrated the limits of the theme and the objective of the research. After that, it was analyzed the basic function of the criminal suit which has the important mission of limiting state's punitive power. In the same way, the criminal procedure corresponds to a warranty of the citizens' freedom. In the same section, it is shown how it is possible to abandon the myth of the real truth in the criminal law system. In the third section of the research, there were pointed elements and definitions about the cognition object, specially the litigious object or "thema decidendum", and also the peculiarities of the judged cases. In the fourth section the subject about origins and evolution of the criminal procedure and its objectives in the legal system is developed to demonstrate its perspectives. Some aspects of the identity's concept of the presupposition of the facts are as well demonstrated in order to relate the theme to the prohibition of multiple imputation. There are also considerations about some other important aspects as the incidence of the legal rules and the possible change on the elements of the penal type. There are several comments about legal procedural in other legal systems comparing them to Brazilian's most elevated Courts. In the end it was systematized the limits to criminal imputation, emphasizing the defende's right as a foundation of the legal system. Is was registered that the ius persequendi can be exercised once

Somos todos canibais: antropofagia, corpo e educação sensível

Cette étude présente l anthropophagie comme une notion théorique et experiementale du corps qui réhabilite le sensible et réveille le monde perçu. L argumentation fait ressortir la dimension sensible du corps et de la connaissance, en considerant sa sensibilité et motricité, corps qui ne se sépare pas de la nature et de l histoire, en actuant dans le monde comme présence vive, originaire, en mouvement ; en supposant un sujet qui, au même temps que construit ses propres senses, il dépend de l expérience de l autre et du monde, en créant et en recréant la culture, et il agrandit le processus de connaître, de sentir, de penser, d agir, d être, de se transformer. Cette attitude annonce une connaissance sensible et un corps qui est suscetible de sensations, mais d expréssions aussi, de communication, de création, aspects indispensables pour se pensar l éducation comme un space sensible, d apprantissage et réssignification de la culture ; que dévient possible la communion avec le corps, le temps, le space ; qu enseigne à réapprendre à voir le monde, que considère la réversibilité des senses et l esthésie comme champs de l expérience sensible et de l imputation des senses ; qu évoque la beauté des multiples léctures du vécu et qu agrandit la compréhension du soi et de l autre. L objectif de ce travail est comprendre l anthropophagie comme une attitude du corps et de la connaisance sensible, qu approfondit la rélation de l être au monde, la rélation avec l autre et permet la création de senses culturelles, ésthetiques et éxistentielles our l éducation. Nos présentons l attitude phénomologique de Maurice Merleau-Ponty comme référence théorique et méthodologique de notre recherche. Il s agit d une attitude de la pensée qui place la conaissance au centre de nos expériences vécues au monde ; une attitude qui ne propose pas un sens définitif des choses et des personnes et qui contribue pour la compréhension de l anthropophagie, du corps, du sensible, du monde et de l autre, en indiquant des développements de ces réflexions pour l éducation. En créant des horizonts de sense et strastégies de pérception sur l anthopophagie, nos considérons comme choix notre expérience vécu, comme les voyages; atelier d extension avec des élèves du cours de Technologie en Production Culturelle de l Institut Fédéral d Éducation, Science et Technologie du Rio Grande do Norte-IFRN, Campus Cidade Alta ; l anthropophagie comme élement de l Art Moderne Brésilien ; les créations et les récits des élèves ; images ; filmes et livres recherchés ; dialogues avec les penseurs Lévi-Strauss, Montaigne et Oswald de Andrade, qui constituent nos principales références conceptuelles et qui ont permis traversé des savoirs et promouvoir un dialogue entre divers champs de connaissance, comme l Anthropologie, la Philosophie, l Art et l Éducation. Ces stratégies constituent le resultat partiel et inachevé d un processus de connaisance de soi et de l autre, que permet de revivre des mémoires, faire ressortir des couleurs, des senses, des goûts, des découvertes sensibles et encourageantes sur la connaissance, sur l art, des découvertes sur soi même, sur l autre, sur le monde, sur la vie, indiquant que l éducation peut être un processus fort sensible, dans lequel le corps est une présence indispensable, aussi comme le toucher, le créer, les delires, les affections, les encontres et l invention

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

A responsabilidade enunciativa em artigos científicos de pesquisadores iniciantes e contribuições para o ensino da produção textual na graduação

This thesis investigates materialization strategies of non-assumption of enunciation responsibility and inscription of an authorial voice in scientific articles produced by initial researchers in Linguistics. The specific focus lays on identify, describe and interpret: i) linguistics marks that assign enunciation responsibility; ii) the positions taken by the first speaker-enunciator (L1/E1) in relation to points of view (PoV) imputed to second enunciators (e2); and iii) the linguistic marks that assign the formulation of themselves' PoV. As a practical deployment, it is proposed to discuss how to teach taking into account text discursive strategies regarding to enunciation responsibility and also authorship in academic and scientific texts. Our research corpus is formed by eight scientific essays and they were selected in a renamed Linguistics scientific magazine which is high evaluated by Qualis/CAPES (Brazil Science Agency). The methodology follows the assumptions of a qualitative research, and an it has such an interpretative basis, even though it takes support in a quantitative approach, too. Theoretically, we based this research on Textual Analysis of Speech and linguistics theories about linguistic enunciation area. The results show two kinds of movements in PoV management: imputation and responsibility. In imputation contexts, the most recursive linguistic marks were reported speech, indirect speech, reported speech with “that”, modalization in reported speech (in enunciation with “according to”, “in agreement with”, “for”), beyond that we see certain points of non-coincidences of speech, specifically the non-coincidence of the speech itself. The way those linguistic marks occur in the text point out three kinds of enunciation positions that are assumed by L1/E1 in relation to PoV of e2: agreement, disagreement and a pseudo neutrality. It was clearly recursive the imputation followed by agreement (explicit or not), this perspective puts other’s voices to defend a speech assumed like own authorship. In speech responsibility contexts, we observed such a formulation of inner PoV that results from theoretical findings undertaken by novice researchers (revealing how he/she interpreted concepts of the theory) or arising from their research data, allowing them to express with more autonomy and without reporting to speeches from e2. Based on those data, we can say that, in text by initial researchers, the authorship is strongly built upon PoV and also dependent from others' words (theory and the scholars quoted there), taking into account that many contexts in which we can observe agreement position, PoV formulations with words taken from e2 and assumed as own words by syntactic integration, the comments about what the other says, the absence of explanations and additions, as well as a data analysis that could show agreement with the theory used to support the work. These results allow us to visualize how initial researcher dialogs with the theoretical enunciation sources he or she takes as support and how he/she displays the status of a subject doing a research and positioning himself/herself as a researcher/author in the scientific field. In assuming the reported speech, when quoting, as a resource that allows the enunciation responsibility and also when doing evidence to the positions of speaker-enunciator in relation do reported PoV, this suggests to a textual-discursive treatment of quoting in academic and scientific text, in a context of teaching that gives attention to the development of communication skills of initial researcher and that can contribute to insert and interact students in the scientific field.

A responsabilidade enunciativa em artigos científicos de pesquisadores iniciantes e contribuições para o ensino da produção textual na graduação

This thesis investigates materialization strategies of non-assumption of enunciation responsibility and inscription of an authorial voice in scientific articles produced by initial researchers in Linguistics. The specific focus lays on identify, describe and interpret: i) linguistics marks that assign enunciation responsibility; ii) the positions taken by the first speaker-enunciator (L1/E1) in relation to points of view (PoV) imputed to second enunciators (e2); and iii) the linguistic marks that assign the formulation of themselves' PoV. As a practical deployment, it is proposed to discuss how to teach taking into account text discursive strategies regarding to enunciation responsibility and also authorship in academic and scientific texts. Our research corpus is formed by eight scientific essays and they were selected in a renamed Linguistics scientific magazine which is high evaluated by Qualis/CAPES (Brazil Science Agency). The methodology follows the assumptions of a qualitative research, and an it has such an interpretative basis, even though it takes support in a quantitative approach, too. Theoretically, we based this research on Textual Analysis of Speech and linguistics theories about linguistic enunciation area. The results show two kinds of movements in PoV management: imputation and responsibility. In imputation contexts, the most recursive linguistic marks were reported speech, indirect speech, reported speech with “that”, modalization in reported speech (in enunciation with “according to”, “in agreement with”, “for”), beyond that we see certain points of non-coincidences of speech, specifically the non-coincidence of the speech itself. The way those linguistic marks occur in the text point out three kinds of enunciation positions that are assumed by L1/E1 in relation to PoV of e2: agreement, disagreement and a pseudo neutrality. It was clearly recursive the imputation followed by agreement (explicit or not), this perspective puts other’s voices to defend a speech assumed like own authorship. In speech responsibility contexts, we observed such a formulation of inner PoV that results from theoretical findings undertaken by novice researchers (revealing how he/she interpreted concepts of the theory) or arising from their research data, allowing them to express with more autonomy and without reporting to speeches from e2. Based on those data, we can say that, in text by initial researchers, the authorship is strongly built upon PoV and also dependent from others' words (theory and the scholars quoted there), taking into account that many contexts in which we can observe agreement position, PoV formulations with words taken from e2 and assumed as own words by syntactic integration, the comments about what the other says, the absence of explanations and additions, as well as a data analysis that could show agreement with the theory used to support the work. These results allow us to visualize how initial researcher dialogs with the theoretical enunciation sources he or she takes as support and how he/she displays the status of a subject doing a research and positioning himself/herself as a researcher/author in the scientific field. In assuming the reported speech, when quoting, as a resource that allows the enunciation responsibility and also when doing evidence to the positions of speaker-enunciator in relation do reported PoV, this suggests to a textual-discursive treatment of quoting in academic and scientific text, in a context of teaching that gives attention to the development of communication skills of initial researcher and that can contribute to insert and interact students in the scientific field.