Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.

Controle preditivo bilinear aplicado a um motor de indução

The present work is based on the applied bilinear predictive control applied to an induction motor. As in particular case of the technique based on predictive control in nonlinem systems, these have desperted great interest, a time that present the advantage of being simpler than the non linear in general and most representative one than the linear one. One of the methods, adopted here, uses the linear model "quasi linear for step of time" based in Generalized Predictive Control. The modeling of the induction motor is made by the Vectorial control with orientation given for the indirect rotor. The system is formed by an induction motor of 3 cv with rotor in squirregate, set in motion for a group of benches of tests developed for this work, presented resulted for a variation of +5% in the value of set-point and for a variation of +10% and -10% in the value of the applied nominal load to the motor. The results prove a good efficiency of the predictive bilinear controllers, then compared with the linear cases

Modelagem linear e identificação do modelo dinâmico de um robô móvel com acionamento diferencial

This work presents a modelling and identification method for a wheeled mobile robot, including the actuator dynamics. Instead of the classic modelling approach, where the robot position coordinates (x,y) are utilized as state variables (resulting in a non linear model), the proposed discrete model is based on the travelled distance increment Delta_l. Thus, the resulting model is linear and time invariant and it can be identified through classical methods such as Recursive Least Mean Squares. This approach has a problem: Delta_l can not be directly measured. In this paper, this problem is solved using an estimate of Delta_l based on a second order polynomial approximation. Experimental data were colected and the proposed method was used to identify the model of a real robot

Controlador preditivo não linear aplicado ao controle de golfadas em processos de produção de petróleo

Slugging is a well-known slugging phenomenon in multiphase flow, which may cause problems such as vibration in pipeline and high liquid level in the separator. It can be classified according to the place of its occurrence. The most severe, known as slugging in the riser, occurs in the vertical pipe which feeds the platform. Also known as severe slugging, it is capable of causing severe pressure fluctuations in the flow of the process, excessive vibration, flooding in separator tanks, limited production, nonscheduled stop of production, among other negative aspects that motivated the production of this work . A feasible solution to deal with this problem would be to design an effective method for the removal or reduction of the system, a controller. According to the literature, a conventional PID controller did not produce good results due to the high degree of nonlinearity of the process, fueling the development of advanced control techniques. Among these, the model predictive controller (MPC), where the control action results from the solution of an optimization problem, it is robust, can incorporate physical and /or security constraints. The objective of this work is to apply a non-conventional non-linear model predictive control technique to severe slugging, where the amount of liquid mass in the riser is controlled by the production valve and, indirectly, the oscillation of flow and pressure is suppressed, while looking for environmental and economic benefits. The proposed strategy is based on the use of the model linear approximations and repeatedly solving of a quadratic optimization problem, providing solutions that improve at each iteration. In the event where the convergence of this algorithm is satisfied, the predicted values of the process variables are the same as to those obtained by the original nonlinear model, ensuring that the constraints are satisfied for them along the prediction horizon. A mathematical model recently published in the literature, capable of representing characteristics of severe slugging in a real oil well, is used both for simulation and for the project of the proposed controller, whose performance is compared to a linear MPC

Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico

LINS, Filipe C. A. et al. Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETRÓLEO E GÁS, 5. 2009, Fortaleza, CE. Anais... Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.

Estado nutricional antropométrico, perfil lipídico e consumo alimentar como fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular em adolescentes

The dyslipidemia and excess weight in adolescents, when combined, suggest a progression of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Besides these, the dietary habits and lifestyle have also been considered unsuitable impacting the development of chronic diseases. The study objectives were: (1) estimate the prevalence of lipid profile and correlate with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist / height ratio (WHR) in adolescents, considering the maturation sexual, (2) know the sources of variance in the diet and the number of days needed to estimate the usual diet of adolescents and (3) describe the dietary patterns and lifestyle of adolescents, family history of CVD and age correlates them with the patterns of risk for CVD, adjusted for sexual maturation. A cross-sectional study was performed with 432 adolescents, aged 10-19 years from public schools of the Natal city, Brazil. The dyslipidemias were evaluated considering the lipid profile, the index of I Castelli (TC / HDL) and II (LDL / HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol. Anthropometric indicators were BMI, WC and WHR. The intake of energy, nutrients including fiber, fatty acids and cholesterol was estimated from two 24-hour recalls (24HR). The variables of lipid profile, anthropometric and clinical data were used in the models of Pearson correlation and linear regression, considering the sexual maturation. The variance ratio of the diet was calculated from the component-person variance, determined by analysis of variance (ANOVA). The definition of the number of days to estimate the usual intake of each nutrient was obtained by taking the hypothetical correlation (r) ≥ 0.9, between nutrient intake and the true observed. We used the principal component analysis as a method of extracting factors that 129 accounted for the dependent variables and known cardiovascular risk obtained from the lipid profile, the index for Castelli I and II, non-HDL cholesterol, BMI, and WC the WHR. Dietary patterns and lifestyle were obtained from the independent variables, based on nutrients consumed and physical activity weekly. In the study of principal component analysis (PCA) was investigated associations between the patterns of cardiovascular risk factors in dietary patterns and lifestyle, age and positive family history of CVD, through bivariate and multiple logistic regression adjusted for sexual maturation. The low HDL-C dyslipidemia was most prevalent (50.5%) for adolescents. Significant correlations were observed between hypercholesterolemia and positive family history of CVD (r = 0.19, p <0.01) and hypertriglyceridemia with BMI (r = 0.30, p <0.01), with the CC (r = 0.32, p <0.01) and WHR (r = 0.33, p <0.01). The linear model constructed with sexual maturation, age and BMI explained about 1 to 10.4% of the variation in the lipid profile. The sources of variance between individuals were greater for all nutrients in both sexes. The reasons for variances were  1 for all nutrients were higher in females. The results suggest that to assess the diet of adolescents with greater precision, 2 days would be enough to R24h consumption of energy, carbohydrates, fiber, saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids. In contrast, 3 days would be recommended for protein, lipid, polyunsaturated fatty acids and cholesterol. Two cardiovascular risk factors as have been extracted in the ACP, referring to the dependent variables: the standard lipid profile (HDL-C and non-HDL cholesterol) and "standard anthropometric index (BMI, WC, WHR) with a power explaining 75% of the variance of the original data. The factors are representative of two independent variables led to dietary patterns, "pattern 130 western diet" and "pattern protein diet", and one on the lifestyle, "pattern energy balance". Together, these patterns provide an explanation power of 67%. Made adjustment for sexual maturation in males remained significant variables: the associations between puberty and be pattern anthropometric indicator (OR = 3.32, CI 1.34 to 8.17%), and between family history of CVD and the pattern lipid profile (OR = 2.62, CI 1.20 to 5.72%). In females adolescents, associations were identified between age after the first stage of puberty with anthropometric pattern (OR = 3.59, CI 1.58 to 8.17%) and lipid profile (OR = 0.33, CI 0.15 to 0.75%). Conclusions: The low HDL-C was the most prevalent dyslipidemia independent of sex and nutritional status of adolescents. Hypercholesterolemia was influenced by family history of CVD and sexual maturation, in turn, hypertriglyceridemia was closely associated with anthropometric indicators. The variance between the diets was greater for all nutrients. This fact reflected in a variance ratio less than 1 and consequently in a lower number of days requerid to estimate the usual diet of adolescents considering gender. The two dietary patterns were extracted and the pattern considered unhealthy lifestyle as healthy. The associations were found between the patterns of CVD risk with age and family history of CVD in the studied adolescents

Preparação e carcterização de complexos multicomponentes contendo ciclodextrinas e benznidazol

The benznidazole (BNZ) is the only alternative for Chagas disease treatment in Brazil. This drug has low solubility, which restricts its dissolution rate. Thus, the present work aimed to study the BNZ interactions in binary systems with beta cyclodextrin (β-CD) and hydroxypropyl-beta cyclodextrin (HP-β-CD), in order to increase the apparent aqueous solubility of drug. The influence of seven hydrophilic polymers, triethanolamine (TEA) and 1-methyl-2- pyrrolidone (NMP) in benznidazole apparent aqueous solubility, as well as the formation of inclusion complexes was also investigated. The interactions in solution were predicted and investigated using phase solubility diagram methodology, nuclear magnetic resonance of protons (RMN) and molecular modeling. Complexes were obtained in solid phase by spray drying and physicochemical characterization included the UV-Vis spectrophotometric spectroscopy in the infrared region, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and dissolution drug test from the different systems. The increment on apparent aqueous solubility of drug was achieved with a linear type (AL) in presence of both cyclodextrins at different pH values. The hydrophilic polymers and 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidone contributes to the formation of inclusion complexes, while the triethanolamine decreased the complex stability constant (Kc). The log-linear model applied for solubility diagrams revealed that both triethanolamine and 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidone showed an action cosolvent (both solvents) and complexing (1-methyl-2-pyrrolidone). The best results were obtained with complexes involving 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidone and hydroxypropylbeta- cyclodextrin, with an increased of benznidazole solubility in 27.9 and 9.4 times, respectively. The complexes effectiveness was proven by dissolution tests, in which the ternary complexes and physical mixtures involving 1-methyl- 2-pyrrolidone and both cyclodextrins investigated showed better results, showing the potential use as novel pharmaceutical ingredient, that leads to increased benznidazole bioavailability

Controle adaptativo robusto para um modelo desacoplado de um robô móvel

This thesis presents a new structure of robust adaptive controller applied to mobile robots (surface mobile robot) with nonholonomic constraints. It acts in the dynamics and kinematics of the robot, and it is split in two distinct parts. The first part controls the robot dynamics, using variable structure model reference adaptive controllers. The second part controls the robot kinematics, using a position controller, whose objective is to make the robot to reach any point in the cartesian plan. The kinematic controller is based only on information about the robot configuration. A decoupling method is adopted to transform the linear model of the mobile robot, a multiple-input multiple-output system, into two decoupled single-input single-output systems, thus reducing the complexity of designing the controller for the mobile robot. After that, a variable structure model reference adaptive controller is applied to each one of the resulting systems. One of such controllers will be responsible for the robot position and the other for the leading angle, using reference signals generated by the position controller. To validate the proposed structure, some simulated and experimental results using differential drive mobile robots of a robot soccer kit are presented. The simulator uses the main characteristics of real physical system as noise and non-linearities such as deadzone and saturation. The experimental results were obtained through an C++ program applied to the robot soccer kit of Microrobot team at the LACI/UFRN. The simulated and experimental results are presented and discussed at the end of the text

Identificação fuzzy-multimodelos para sistemas não lineares

This paper presents a new multi-model technique of dentification in ANFIS for nonlinear systems. In this technique, the structure used is of the fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno of which the consequences are local linear models that represent the system of different points of operation and the precursors are membership functions whose adjustments are realized by the learning phase of the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS technique. The models that represent the system at different points of the operation can be found with linearization techniques like, for example, the Least Squares method that is robust against sounds and of simple application. The fuzzy system is responsible for informing the proportion of each model that should be utilized, using the membership functions. The membership functions can be adjusted by ANFIS with the use of neural network algorithms, like the back propagation error type, in such a way that the models found for each area are correctly interpolated and define an action of each model for possible entries into the system. In multi-models, the definition of action of models is known as metrics and, since this paper is based on ANFIS, it shall be denominated in ANFIS metrics. This way, ANFIS metrics is utilized to interpolate various models, composing a system to be identified. Differing from the traditional ANFIS, the created technique necessarily represents the system in various well defined regions by unaltered models whose pondered activation as per the membership functions. The selection of regions for the application of the Least Squares method is realized manually from the graphic analysis of the system behavior or from the physical characteristics of the plant. This selection serves as a base to initiate the linear model defining technique and generating the initial configuration of the membership functions. The experiments are conducted in a teaching tank, with multiple sections, designed and created to show the characteristics of the technique. The results from this tank illustrate the performance reached by the technique in task of identifying, utilizing configurations of ANFIS, comparing the developed technique with various models of simple metrics and comparing with the NNARX technique, also adapted to identification

Separação cega de fontes lineares e não lineares usando algoritmo genético, redes neurais artificiais RBF e negentropia de Rényi como medida de independência

Conventional methods to solve the problem of blind source separation nonlinear, in general, using series of restrictions to obtain the solution, often leading to an imperfect separation of the original sources and high computational cost. In this paper, we propose an alternative measure of independence based on information theory and uses the tools of artificial intelligence to solve problems of blind source separation linear and nonlinear later. In the linear model applies genetic algorithms and Rényi of negentropy as a measure of independence to find a separation matrix from linear mixtures of signals using linear form of waves, audio and images. A comparison with two types of algorithms for Independent Component Analysis widespread in the literature. Subsequently, we use the same measure of independence, as the cost function in the genetic algorithm to recover source signals were mixed by nonlinear functions from an artificial neural network of radial base type. Genetic algorithms are powerful tools for global search, and therefore well suited for use in problems of blind source separation. Tests and analysis are through computer simulations

Simulação computacional da interação fluido-estrutura em bombas de cavidades progressivas

The pumping through progressing cavities system has been more and more employed in the petroleum industry. This occurs because of its capacity of elevation of highly viscous oils or fluids with great concentration of sand or other solid particles. A Progressing Cavity Pump (PCP) consists, basically, of a rotor - a metallic device similar to an eccentric screw, and a stator - a steel tube internally covered by a double helix, which may be rigid or deformable/elastomeric. In general, it is submitted to a combination of well pressure with the pressure generated by the pumping process itself. In elastomeric PCPs, this combined effort compresses the stator and generates, or enlarges, the clearance existing between the rotor and the stator, thus reducing the closing effect between their cavities. Such opening of the sealing region produces what is known as fluid slip or slippage, reducing the efficiency of the PCP pumping system. Therefore, this research aims to develop a transient three-dimensional computational model that, based on single-lobe PCP kinematics, is able to simulate the fluid-structure interaction that occurs in the interior of metallic and elastomeric PCPs. The main goal is to evaluate the dynamic characteristics of PCP s efficiency based on detailed and instantaneous information of velocity, pressure and deformation fields in their interior. To reach these goals (development and use of the model), it was also necessary the development of a methodology for generation of dynamic, mobile and deformable, computational meshes representing fluid and structural regions of a PCP. This additional intermediary step has been characterized as the biggest challenge for the elaboration and running of the computational model due to the complex kinematic and critical geometry of this type of pump (different helix angles between rotor and stator as well as large length scale aspect ratios). The processes of dynamic generation of meshes and of simultaneous evaluation of the deformations suffered by the elastomer are fulfilled through subroutines written in Fortan 90 language that dynamically interact with the CFX/ANSYS fluid dynamic software. Since a structural elastic linear model is employed to evaluate elastomer deformations, it is not necessary to use any CAE package for structural analysis. However, an initial proposal for dynamic simulation using hyperelastic models through ANSYS software is also presented in this research. Validation of the results produced with the present methodology (mesh generation, flow simulation in metallic PCPs and simulation of fluid-structure interaction in elastomeric PCPs) is obtained through comparison with experimental results reported by the literature. It is expected that the development and application of such a computational model may provide better details of the dynamics of the flow within metallic and elastomeric PCPs, so that better control systems may be implemented in the artificial elevation area by PCP

Aproveitamento de subprodutos da industrialização do escargot

The waste in the industries of escargot processing is very big. This is composed basically of escargot meat out of the commercialization patterns and the visceras. In this context, there is a need to take advantage to the use of these sub-products. A possibility should be drying them and transforming them in a certain form to be reused. Than, the present work has the objective of studying the reutilization of the sub-products of the escargot industrialization for by means of drying process. The samples were transformed in pastes, through a domestic processor for approximately 1 minute and compacted in trays of aluminum without perforations with three different heights (5 mm, 10 mm and 15 mm). The drying was accomplished in a tray dryer with air circulation and transverse flow at a speed of 0,2 m/s and three temperature levels (70°C, 80°C and 90ºC). A drying kinetics study was accomplished for the obtained curves and for the heat and mass transfer coefficients using experimental procedures based in an experimental planning of 22 factorial type. Microbiological and physiochemical analysis were also accomplished for the in nature and the dehydrated sub-products. In the drying process, it was observed the great importance of the external resistances to the mass transfer and heat in the period of constant tax influenced by the temperature. The evaporation taxes indicated a mixed control of the mass transfer for the case of the thickest layers. As already expected, the drying constant behavior was influenced by the temperature and thickness of the medium, increasing and decreasing. The statistical analysis of the results, in agreement with the factorial planning 22, showed that the fissures, the shrinking of the transfer area and the formation of a crust on the surface might have contributed to the differences between the practical results and the linear model proposed. The temperature and the thickness influenced significantly in the answers of the studied variables: evaporation tax and drying constant. They were obtained significant statistical models and predictive ones for evaporation tax for the meat as well as for the visceras

Interações físicas e psicossociais em mulheres com fibromialgia

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a non-inflammatory rheumatic syndrome of unknown etiology, with symptoms of diffuse musculoskeletal pain and presence of specific anatomic sites called tender points. The symptoms are often associated with fatigue, sleep disturbances, morning stiffness, alterations in pain perception, anxiety and depression. Fibromyalgia exhibits a correlation between physical and behavioral symptoms, which have a negative influence on the quality of life of patients. Emotional skills are important factors since they are related to subjective well-being, personal productivity, social interaction and interpersonal relationships. We aim to describe the physical and psychosocial interactions in women with FM, showing the association between perceived social support and affect with symptoms of pain, functionality and mood. We will also describe a body representation of pain in women with FM. Data were collected over 3 years and the sample size ranged between studies. This is an exploratory cross-sectional study conducted with a convenience sample of 63 women with FM and 42 healthy women as a control group (CT), aged 20-76 years, recruited through spontaneous demand at Onofre Lopes University Hospital (HUOL) and the Clinical School of Physiotherapy of Universidade Potiguar (UNP). The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Social Support Scale (MOS), Hamilton Anxiety Scale and Scale of Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), in addition to pressure algometry were used. For data analysis, we used parametric and non-parametric tests and a general linear model with adjustment variables and analysis of variance. A significant difference was found between pain threshold and tolerance, functionality, depression, anxiety, social support, and positive and negative affect between the groups. Affective states and social support were associated with anxiety, depression and functionality. A body was drawn representing pain with higher incidences in trapeze, supraspinatus and second ribs. The reason for studying sensory aspects, affective behavior and social support in FM patients opens perspectives for scientific and clinical research of this syndrome. Women with chronic pain such as FM appear to have altered mood states, less social support and affective dysfunctions, influencing the other symptoms of the syndrome

Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico

LINS, Filipe C. A. et al. Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETRÓLEO E GÁS, 5. 2009, Fortaleza, CE. Anais... Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.