Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Novas fronteiras petrolíferas no Brasil : uma análise da necessidade de nova regulamentação da área do pré-sal sob a ótica constitucional

The Oil industry in Brazil has gone through several stages during the economical, political and social historical process. However, the significative changes have happened in the last fifteen years, due to market opening arising from the relaxation of the state monopoly over the Oil deposits and its derivatives. The edition of the Constitutional Amendment #9, changing the first paragraph of the 177th item of the Federal Constitution, marked the end of a stiffness about the monopoly that the Brazilian state kept in relation to the exploration and research of Oil and Gas. The economical order was fundamental to actualize the idea contained in the #9 Amendment, since its contents has the power to set up measures to be adopted by public power in order to organize the economical relations from a social viewpoint. The new brazilian Oil scenery, called pre-salt, presents itself in a way to amaze the economical markets, in addition to creating a new perspective to the social sector. This work will identify, in this new scenario, the need for change in the legal system. Nevertheless, this subject must not be treated in a thoughtless way: being an exhaustible good, we shall not forget that the future generations also must benefit from the exploration of natural resources recently discovered. The settlement of a new regulatory mark, including the change in the concession contract model to production and sharing is one of the suggested solutions as a bill in the National Congress, in an attempt to ensure the sovereignty of the nation. The constitutionality of a new regulatory mark is questioned, starting from an analysis of the state monopoly, grounding the comprehnsions in the brazilian constitutions, the relevance of the creation of Petrobras for self-assertion of the state about the monopoly of Oil and derivatives, and its posture after the Constitutional Amendment nº 9 (1995), when a company stops having control of the state monopoly, beginning to compete in a fairly way with other companies. The market opening and private initiative are emphasized from the viewpoint of the Constitutional Principles of the Economical and Social Order. The relaxation of the monopoly regarding the exploratory activity in the Federal Constitution doesn't deprive from the Union the ownerships of underground goods, enabling to this federal entity to contract, directly or by concession of exploration of goods, to state-owned or private companies. The existing oil in the pre-salt layer transforms the scenario from very high risk to low risk, which gives the Union the possibility of defining another way of exploring this resources in the best interests of the Public Administration

Análise do uso do Portal de Periódicos da CAPES na perspectiva de mestres e doutores formados pelo Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração da UFRN

The Brazilian CAPES Journal Portal aims to provide Information in Science and Technology (IST) for academic users. Thus, it is considered a relevant instrument for post-graduation dynamics and the country´s Science and Technology (S&T) development. Despite its importance, there are still few studies that focus on the policy analysis and efficiency of these resources. This research aims to fill in this gap once it proposes an analysis of the use of the CAPES Journal Portal done on behalf of the master´s and doctoral alumni of the Post Graduate Program in Management (PPGA) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The operationalization of the research´s main objective was possible through the specific objectives: characterize graduate profile as CAPES Journal Portal users b) identify motivation for the use of CAPES Journal Portal c) detect graduate satisfaction degree in information seeking done at CAPES Journal Portal d) verify graduate satisfaction regarding the use of the CAPES Journal Portal e) verify the use of the information that is obtained by graduates in the development of their academic activities. The research is of descriptive nature employing a mixed methodological strategy in which quantitative approach predominates. Data collection was done through a web survey questionnaire. Quantitative data analysis was made possible through the use of a statistical method. As for qualitative analysis, there was use of the Brenda Dervin´s sense-making approach as well as content analysis in open ended questions. The research samples were composed by 90 graduate students who had defended their dissertation/thesis in the PPGA program at UFRN in the time span of 2010-2013. This represented by 88% of this population. As for user profile, the analysis has made evident that there are no quantitative differences related to gender. There is predominance of male graduates that were aged 26 to 30 years old. As for female graduates, the great majority were 31 o 35 years old. Most graduates had Master´s degree scholarship in order to support their study. It was also seen that the great majority claim to use the Portal during their post graduation studies. The main reasons responsible for non use was: preference for the use of other data bases and lack of knowledge regarding the Portal. It was observed that the most used information resources were theses and dissertations. Data also indicate preference for complete text. Those who have used the Portal also claimed to have used other electronic information fonts in order to fulfill their information needs. The information fonts that were researched outside in the Portal were monographs, dissertations and thesis. Scielo was the most used information font. Results reveal that access and use of the Portal has been done in a regular manner during post graduation studies. But on the other hand, graduates also make use of other electronic information fonts in order to meet their information needs. The study also confirmed the important mission performed by the Portal regarding Brazilian scientific communication production. This was seen even though users have reported the need for improvement in some aspects such as: periodic training in order to promote, encourage and teach more effective use of the portal; investment aiming the expansion of Social Sciences Collection in the Portal as well as the need to implement continuous evaluation process related to user satisfaction in regarding the services provided.