Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

A estrutura burocrática de poder no stricto sensu em administração no Brasil: o caso do mestrado profissional em administração pública em Rede Nacional - PROFIAP

This study approaches bureaucratic organizational structures with the aim to understand the adherence procedure to virtual technologies in the stricto sensu educational administrative process. Thus, the author navigates through the formation of these organizations in Brazil with the intent to demonstrate the bureaucratic organizational culture and the consequent form of domination of those who detain power. In this epistemological construction, the author explores the culture s bureaucratic environment and the organizational power. In the analyses, it was observed the technological phenomenon in the ODL s administrative environment, which can explain the adherence procedure to structures and technological instruments for stricto sensu courses that, hypothetically, dilutes the traditional inherited organizational axiom. Therefore, it was utilized as object of study the Professional Master s degree in National Scale Public Administration PROFIAP, hence analyzing the documental content and the legislation related to institutionalization as well as the positioning of professors/coordinators and of the director of CAPES/MEC. Considering this axioms, it was concluded that the bureaucratic structures can admit ODL in the stricto sensu s environment. However, this can only be done as long as the adherence does not imply in a dilution of the traditional forms of power and institutional bureaucratic inherited dominance, as well as the alleged hegemony of the governmental structure in the educational administration adopted in person by the stricto sensu courses in Brazil

Análise do uso do Portal de Periódicos da CAPES na perspectiva de mestres e doutores formados pelo Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração da UFRN

The Brazilian CAPES Journal Portal aims to provide Information in Science and Technology (IST) for academic users. Thus, it is considered a relevant instrument for post-graduation dynamics and the country´s Science and Technology (S&T) development. Despite its importance, there are still few studies that focus on the policy analysis and efficiency of these resources. This research aims to fill in this gap once it proposes an analysis of the use of the CAPES Journal Portal done on behalf of the master´s and doctoral alumni of the Post Graduate Program in Management (PPGA) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The operationalization of the research´s main objective was possible through the specific objectives: characterize graduate profile as CAPES Journal Portal users b) identify motivation for the use of CAPES Journal Portal c) detect graduate satisfaction degree in information seeking done at CAPES Journal Portal d) verify graduate satisfaction regarding the use of the CAPES Journal Portal e) verify the use of the information that is obtained by graduates in the development of their academic activities. The research is of descriptive nature employing a mixed methodological strategy in which quantitative approach predominates. Data collection was done through a web survey questionnaire. Quantitative data analysis was made possible through the use of a statistical method. As for qualitative analysis, there was use of the Brenda Dervin´s sense-making approach as well as content analysis in open ended questions. The research samples were composed by 90 graduate students who had defended their dissertation/thesis in the PPGA program at UFRN in the time span of 2010-2013. This represented by 88% of this population. As for user profile, the analysis has made evident that there are no quantitative differences related to gender. There is predominance of male graduates that were aged 26 to 30 years old. As for female graduates, the great majority were 31 o 35 years old. Most graduates had Master´s degree scholarship in order to support their study. It was also seen that the great majority claim to use the Portal during their post graduation studies. The main reasons responsible for non use was: preference for the use of other data bases and lack of knowledge regarding the Portal. It was observed that the most used information resources were theses and dissertations. Data also indicate preference for complete text. Those who have used the Portal also claimed to have used other electronic information fonts in order to fulfill their information needs. The information fonts that were researched outside in the Portal were monographs, dissertations and thesis. Scielo was the most used information font. Results reveal that access and use of the Portal has been done in a regular manner during post graduation studies. But on the other hand, graduates also make use of other electronic information fonts in order to meet their information needs. The study also confirmed the important mission performed by the Portal regarding Brazilian scientific communication production. This was seen even though users have reported the need for improvement in some aspects such as: periodic training in order to promote, encourage and teach more effective use of the portal; investment aiming the expansion of Social Sciences Collection in the Portal as well as the need to implement continuous evaluation process related to user satisfaction in regarding the services provided.