Detecção e diagnóstico de falhas não-supervisionados baseados em estimativa de densidade recursiva e classificador fuzzy auto-evolutivo

In this work, we propose a two-stage algorithm for real-time fault detection and identification of industrial plants. Our proposal is based on the analysis of selected features using recursive density estimation and a new evolving classifier algorithm. More specifically, the proposed approach for the detection stage is based on the concept of density in the data space, which is not the same as probability density function, but is a very useful measure for abnormality/outliers detection. This density can be expressed by a Cauchy function and can be calculated recursively, which makes it memory and computational power efficient and, therefore, suitable for on-line applications. The identification/diagnosis stage is based on a self-developing (evolving) fuzzy rule-based classifier system proposed in this work, called AutoClass. An important property of AutoClass is that it can start learning from scratch". Not only do the fuzzy rules not need to be prespecified, but neither do the number of classes for AutoClass (the number may grow, with new class labels being added by the on-line learning process), in a fully unsupervised manner. In the event that an initial rule base exists, AutoClass can evolve/develop it further based on the newly arrived faulty state data. In order to validate our proposal, we present experimental results from a level control didactic process, where control and error signals are used as features for the fault detection and identification systems, but the approach is generic and the number of features can be significant due to the computationally lean methodology, since covariance or more complex calculations, as well as storage of old data, are not required. The obtained results are significantly better than the traditional approaches used for comparison

Dinâmica Estocástica e Cosmologia: alguns resultados analíticos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Extensões multidimensionais para correntropia e suas aplicações em estimativas robustas

This present work uses a generalized similarity measure called correntropy to develop a new method to estimate a linear relation between variables given their samples. Towards this goal, the concept of correntropy is extended from two variables to any two vectors (even with different dimensions) using a statistical framework. With this multidimensionals extensions of Correntropy the regression problem can be formulated in a different manner by seeking the hyperplane that has maximum probability density with the target data. Experiments show that the new algorithm has a nice fixed point update for the parameters and robust performs in the presence of outlier noise.

Utilização de nanosílica como aditivo estendedor para pastas cimentantes de baixa densidade destinadas à cimentação de poços petrolíferos

Cementing operations are conducted at different times of the well s life and they have high importance, because the functions are fundamental to keep good properties during a long life of the well, such as, maintain the mechanical stability of the well, to promote the isolation hydraulic and support the tubing. In some situations, the rocky zones have low fractures pressures and require the use of lightweight slurries to prevent the hydrostatic pressure in the formation is greater than the pressure of fracture. There are three ways to reduce the density of cement slurries: exterders water additives, microspheres and foamed slurries. The most used extender water additive is sodium bentonite, which is a clay with a good capacity of water absorption and expansion of its volume, the main disadvantage of this additive is the reduction of the strength. Currently, the use of nanoscale particles has received special attention, mainly because they get new functionalities. Following this trend, this paper aims to use a colloidal solution of nano-silica as an exterders water additives for use in oil wells. Slurries were designed with fixed 13lb/gal density and concentration of nano silica 0.1 gpc; 0.4 gpc; 0.7 and 1gpc, the influence of nano-silica was studied at these levels in isolation and combined varying concentrations of CaCl2,. Tests including rheology, stability, strength, thickening time, porosity and permeability. Besides the API tests, microstructural characterizations were performed after 28 days of the slurries, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM)

Estimadores do tipo núcleo para a densidade de transição de uma cadeia de markov com espaço de estados geral

In this work, we studied the strong consistency for a class of estimates for a transition density of a Markov chain with general state space E ⊂ Rd. The strong ergodicity of the estimates for the density transition is obtained from the strong consistency of the kernel estimates for both the marginal density p(:) of the chain and the joint density q(., .). In this work the Markov chain is supposed to be homogeneous, uniformly ergodic and possessing a stationary density p(.,.)

Modelo de risco controlado por resseguro e desigualdades para a probabilidade de ruína

In the work reported here we present theoretical and numerical results about a Risk Model with Interest Rate and Proportional Reinsurance based on the article Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process by Ros ario Romera and Maikol Diasparra (see [5]). Recursive and integral equations as well as upper bounds for the Ruin Probability are given considering three di erent approaches, namely, classical Lundberg inequality, Inductive approach and Martingale approach. Density estimation techniques (non-parametrics) are used to derive upper bounds for the Ruin Probability and the algorithms used in the simulation are presented

Uso de correntropia na generalização de funções cicloestacionárias e aplicações para a extração de características de sinais modulados

Information extraction is a frequent and relevant problem in digital signal processing. In the past few years, different methods have been utilized for the parameterization of signals and the achievement of efficient descriptors. When the signals possess statistical cyclostationary properties, the Cyclic Autocorrelation Function (CAF) and the Spectral Cyclic Density (SCD) can be used to extract second-order cyclostationary information. However, second-order cyclostationary information is poor in nongaussian signals, as the cyclostationary analysis in this case should comprise higher-order statistical information. This paper proposes a new mathematical tool for the higher-order cyclostationary analysis based on the correntropy function. Specifically, the cyclostationary analysis is revisited focusing on the information theory, while the Cyclic Correntropy Function (CCF) and Cyclic Correntropy Spectral Density (CCSD) are also defined. Besides, it is analytically proven that the CCF contains information regarding second- and higher-order cyclostationary moments, being a generalization of the CAF. The performance of the aforementioned new functions in the extraction of higher-order cyclostationary characteristics is analyzed in a wireless communication system where nongaussian noise exists.

Utilização de nanosílica como aditivo estendedor para pastas cimentantes de baixa densidade destinadas à cimentação de poços petrolíferos

Cementing operations are conducted at different times of the well s life and they have high importance, because the functions are fundamental to keep good properties during a long life of the well, such as, maintain the mechanical stability of the well, to promote the isolation hydraulic and support the tubing. In some situations, the rocky zones have low fractures pressures and require the use of lightweight slurries to prevent the hydrostatic pressure in the formation is greater than the pressure of fracture. There are three ways to reduce the density of cement slurries: exterders water additives, microspheres and foamed slurries. The most used extender water additive is sodium bentonite, which is a clay with a good capacity of water absorption and expansion of its volume, the main disadvantage of this additive is the reduction of the strength. Currently, the use of nanoscale particles has received special attention, mainly because they get new functionalities. Following this trend, this paper aims to use a colloidal solution of nano-silica as an exterders water additives for use in oil wells. Slurries were designed with fixed 13lb/gal density and concentration of nano silica 0.1 gpc; 0.4 gpc; 0.7 and 1gpc, the influence of nano-silica was studied at these levels in isolation and combined varying concentrations of CaCl2,. Tests including rheology, stability, strength, thickening time, porosity and permeability. Besides the API tests, microstructural characterizations were performed after 28 days of the slurries, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM)

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

A forma do privilégio: renda, acessibilidade e densidade em Natal-RN

The aim of this work is to understand the morphological expression of ground occupation by the higher income population, by focusing on population distribution in accordance with income layers and demographical density, as well as topological accessibility (HILLIER and HANSON, 1984) resulting from the urban grid structure. It endeavors to identify a functional organizing principle regarding the intra-urban space of Natal capital city of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the research focus. In order to achieve this, census data as well as syntactic data were utilized for mapping and spatial analysis of income patterns, topological accessibility and demographical density using Geographical Information System GIS. The organizing principle was named as the Form of Privilege, a pattern that concentrates or tends to concentrate wealth, topological accessibility and low demographical density. Attempting to assess its extent, beyond Natal, this principle was applied to other Brazilian northeastern capitals such as: Fortaleza, CE; Teresina, PI; Aracaju, SE; Recife, PE; and João Pessoa, PB. Findings point out that although the urban structures of these cities are not immune to the Form of Privilege, Natal is emblematic of this phenomenon, a fact that demonstrates the perverse character of its spatial process, which historically creates privileged areas within the city, by means of the appropriation of accessibility as well as of the many urban benesses that are related to it by higher income groups at the expense of the major part of the population, which though being the people mostly in need of the benefits originating from the urban form are excluded from them

Influência das áreas verdes no microclima local: um estudo do conjunto habitacional Ponta Negra, Natal/RN

Owing to na intense process of urban development, urban uneasiness and discomfort in the daily life of populations have nowadays, especially in the big cities, become increasingly ordinary issues. Population density, degeneration of central areas and pollution are some of the environmental stressors the urban man is subjected to. The existence of open areas in the urban network contributes to a better movement of the air and transforms salubrity conditions. Yet, it has been noticed that parks and squares are disappearing from the heart of the city districts. In their place there are either unused plots of land where garbage has been dumped or nearly all-paved squares with meager or no vegetation at all. Such areas, when handled properly, play an important role in the city because in addition to being zones for rendering a mild climate they perform social, cultural and hygienic functions. Aiming at demonstrating that proper handling of green areas can favorably influence the local microclimate, we have attempted to develop analysis from the point of view of bioclimatizing attributes of urban form and their relationship to the local microclimate found in the eight open areas located in the Ponta Negra Housing Complex in the city of Natal/RN

Parâmetros urbanísticos na regulação do uso e ocupação do solo: estudo da densidade e do coeficiente de aproveitamento nos planos diretores de Natal de 1994 e 2007

A Constituição Federal de 1988 e o Estatuto da Cidade estabelecem o Plano Diretor como instrumento básico da política de ordenamento territorial, tendo como princípio fundamental o cumprimento da função social da propriedade e do direito à cidade. Na perspectiva de adequação às diretrizes e objetivos da política urbana estabelecidos em 1988, o município de Natal elaborou os Planos Diretores de 1994 e 2007, definindo instrumentos e parâmetros de regulação do uso e ocupação do solo possíveis de assegurar o cumprimento da função social da propriedade urbana e de gerar subsídios ao planejamento e à gestão da cidade. Apesar de Natal ter sido um dos municípios brasileiros pioneiros na adoção desses princ pios, antecipando e incorporando os instrumentos que em 2001 viriam a ser definidos no Estatuto da Cidade, identifica-se que alguns desses instrumentos e parâmetros direcionados à regulação do uso e ocupação do solo não tiveram sua aplicação plena, a exemplo do mecanismo de acompanhamento e controle dado pelo Estoque de Área Edificável e da Densidade, que foi substituída pelo Coeficiente de Aproveitamento no Plano Diretor de 2007. Questionando esse procedimento, busca-se na presente pesquisa investigar de que maneira essa substituição do parâmetro densidade pelo coeficiente de aproveitamento influenciou na capacidade da gestão pública de regular os processos de uso e ocupação do solo, de forma a adequar a sua intensificação ao suporte da infraestrutura instalada. Foram tomadas como referência teórico-conceitual as contribuições sobre a prática de planejamento urbano no Brasil, nos marcos do ideário da reforma urbana, com destaque para as reflexõe s de Flávio Villaça, Orlando Alves Santos Junior e Daniel Todtmann Montandon, Luiz César de Q. Ribeiro, Raquel Rolnik, Ermínia Maricato, Laura Machado de Bueno e Renato Cymbalista, José Roberto Bassul e Carlos F. Lago Burnett, e, com relação aos parâmetros de controle urbanístico, o estudo identifica as diferentes abordagens sobre a densidade urbana e o coeficiente de aproveitamento com base nas reflexões de Claudio Acioly Jr., Forbes Davidson, Juan Luis Mascaró, Ricardo Ojima, Marcelo de Souza, José Rámon Navarro Vera e Armando Ortuño Padilla, Nestor Goulart Reis, Marta Dora Grostein e Susana Ricardo Alves. Como conclusão, discute-se a hipótese formulada, inicialmente, de que a mudança de parâmetros verificada colocou limites para o município realizar uma gestão adequada do solo urbano e, portanto, de fazer cumprir a função social da propriedade, considerando a necessidade de adequação entre a intensificação do uso e ocupação do solo e a infraestrutura instalada

Determinantes genéticos da hanseníase em uma população do Rio Grande do Norte

Background: Leprosy can cause severe disability and disfigurement and is still a major health in different parts of the world. Only a subset of those individuals exposed to the pathogen will go on to develop clinical disease and there is a broad clinical spectrum amongst leprosy patients. The outcome of infection is in part due to host genes that influence control of the initial infection and the host´s immune response to that infection. Aim: Evaluate if polymorphisms type SNP in the 17q118q21 chromosomic region contribute to development of leprosy in Rio Grande do Norte population. Material and methods: A sample composed of 215 leprosy patients and 229 controls drawn from the same population were genotyped by using a Snapshot assay for eight genes (NOS2A, CCL18, CRLF3, CCL23, TNFAIP1, STAT5B, CCR7 and CSF3) located in chromosomic region 17q118q21. The genotype and allele frequency were measured and statistical analysis was performed by chi-square in SPSS version 15 and graph prism pad version 4 software. Results: Ours results indicated that the markers NOS2A8277, NOS2A8rs16949, CCR78rs11574663 and CSF38rs2227322 presented strong association with leprosy and their risk genotype were GG, TT, AA and GG respectively. The risk genotypes for all markers associated to leprosy presented recessive inheritance standard. When we compared the interaction among the markers in different combination we find that the marker NOS2A8277 associated with CCR78rs11574663 presented highest risk probability to development of leprosy. When we evaluated the haplotype of the risk markers it was found a haplotype associated with increase of the protection (CSF38rs22273228CC, CCR78 rs115746638GA, NOS2A8rs169498CT and NOS2A82778GA). The association of the clinical forms paucibacilary and multibacilary with markers showed that to the markers NOS2A8 2778GG, CCR78rs115746638AA and CSF38rs22273228GG there were a strong influence to migration to multibacilary pole and to marker NOS2A8rs169498TT the high proportion was found to the paucibacilary form. Conclusions: Changes in the genes NOS2A, CCR7 and CSF3 can influence the immune response against Mycobacterium leprae. The combination among these polymorphisms alters the risk probability to develop leprosy. The markers type SNP associated to development of the leprosy also are linked to clinical forms and its severity being the polymorphism NOS2A8rs169498TT associated with paucibacilar form and the polymorphisms NOS2A82778GG, CCR78rs115746638AA and CSF38rs22273228GG associated to multibacilar form

Adição de vermiculita expandida mícron em pastas de baixa densidade para cimentação de poços de petróleo

The northeastern region of Brazil has a large number of wells producing oil using a method of secondary recovery steam injection, since the oil produced in this region is essentially viscous. This recovery method puts the cement / coating on thermal cycling, due to the difference in coefficient of thermal expansion between cement and metal coating causes the appearance of cracks at this interface, allowing the passage of the annular fluid, which is associated with serious risk socioeconomic and environmental. In view of these cracks, a correction operation is required, resulting in more costs and temporary halt of production of the well. Alternatively, the oil industry has developed technology for adding new materials in cement pastes, oil well, providing high ductility and low density in order to withstand the thermo-mechanical loads generated by the injection of water vapor. In this context, vermiculite, a clay mineral found in abundance in Brazil has been applied in its expanded form in the construction industry for the manufacture of lightweight concrete with excellent insulation and noise due to its high melting point and the presence of air in their layers lamellar. Therefore, the vermiculite is used for the purpose of providing low-density cement paste and withstand high temperatures caused by steam injection. Thus, the present study compared the default folder containing cement and water with the folders with 6%, 8% and 10% vermiculite micron conducting tests of free water, rheology and compressive strength where it obtained the concentration of 8 % with the best results. Subsequently, the selected concentration, was compared with the results recommended by the API standard tests of filtered and stability. And finally, analyzed the results from tests of specific gravity and time of thickening. Before the study we were able to make a folder with a low density that can be used in cementing oil well in order to withstand the thermo-mechanical loads generated by steam injection

Desenvolvimento de tubulação em compósito polimérico revestida externamente com poliuretano de alta densidade

Pipelines for the transport of crude oil from the production wells to the collecting stations are named production lines . These pipes are subjected to chemical and electrochemical corrosion according to the environment and the type of petroleum transported. Some of these lines, depending upon the composition of the fluid produced, may leak within less than one year of operation due to internal corrosion. This work aims at the development of composite pipes with an external protecting layer of high density polyurethane for use in production lines of onshore oil wells, meeting operational requirements. The pipes were manufactured using glass fibers, epoxy resin, polyester resin, quartz sand and high density polyurethane. The pipes were produced by filament winding with the deposition of high density polyurethane on the external surface and threaded ends (API 15 HR/PM-VII). Three types of pipes were manufactured: glass/epoxy, glass/epoxy with an external polyurethane layer and glass/epoxy with an intermediate layer of glass fiber, polyester, sand and with an external polyurethane layer. The three samples were characterized by Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM) and for the determination of constituent content. In addition, the following tests were conducted: hydrostatic test, instant rupture, shorttime failure pressure, Gardner impact, transverse stiffness and axial tension. Field tests were conducted in Mossoró RN (BRAZIL), where 1,677 meters of piping were used. The tests results of the three types of pipes were compared in two events: after two months from manufacturing of the samples and after nine months of field application. The results indicate that the glass/epoxy pipes with an intermediate layer of fiber glass composite, polyester e sand and with an external layer of high density polyurethane showed superior properties as compared to the other two and met the requirements of pressure class, axial tensile strength, transverse stiffness, impact and environmental conditions, for onshore applications as production lines