Estudo sobre a detecção de invariância de escala discreta em sistemas com criticalidade auto-organizada

Recent studies have shown evidence of log-periodic behavior in non-hierarchical systems. An interesting fact is the emergence of such properties on rupture and breakdown of complex materials and financial failures. These may be examples of systems with self-organized criticality (SOC). In this work we study the detection of discrete scale invariance or log-periodicity. Theoretically showing the effectiveness of methods based on the Fourier Transform of the log-periodicity detection not only with prior knowledge of the critical point before this point as well. Specifically, we studied the Brazilian financial market with the objective of detecting discrete scale invariance in Bovespa (Bolsa de Valores de S˜ao Paulo) index. Some historical series were selected periods in 1999, 2001 and 2008. We report evidence for the detection of possible log-periodicity before breakage, shown its applicability to the study of systems with discrete scale invariance likely in the case of financial crashes, it shows an additional evidence of the possibility of forecasting breakage

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Uma avaliação política da política de avaliação da educação superior brasileira

We had as the problem of analysis in this research: what are the assumptions, principles and general content that based the Sistema Nacional de Avaliação da Educação Superior (SINAES). We started from the hypothesis that the general content of SINAES is essentially based on the assumptions and principles of a control/regulatory perspective of evaluation and a summative epistemology, objectivist and quantitativist, constituted by members who prioritize testing and classification of courses and institutions based on market values. The overall goal was to make a political evaluation of SINAES and the specific objectives were: a) apply the concepts of politics evaluation and meta-evaluation, b) identify the role of international organizations in education reform in the 1990s and its impact on superior education in Brazil c) redeem the concept of evaluation, especially in the field of studies in education; and d) investigate the evaluation policies of Brazilian superior education leading to SINAES. As for the technical procedures for collecting and analyzing data, the research was made with bibliography and documents, considering that it was developed by bibliographic sources and official publications. It was developed by crossing sources: texts or documents remitted to others; it was also concentrated: on the role of international organizations in educational and State reforms (in the 1990s); on the policies of evaluation of the Brazilian superior education (1980s and 1990s); on the proposal of the Comissão Especial de Avaliação (CEA); on the Law No. 10.861/2004; on the documents of CONAES; on the Decree No. 5.773/2006, and the MEC Regulatory Ordinances No. 4/2008 and No. 12/2008. It did not stop in the so called purely technical aspects, but in the ideological field itself. The research found that international organizations, notably the World Bank, played a political, intellectual and financial role determinant to the field of education, a fact that reflects in the legal framework. It was also found that the politics of evaluation of the superior education is historically marked by conflict, represented by two distinct perspectives of different natures and emphases. On one hand, the focus is on control / regulation, favoring efficiency, productivity and competitiveness benchmarking and prioritizing the punctual performance and measurement. On the other, it seeks to transform academic perspective in primarily formative / emancipatory, in order to support more institutional improvement. It was concluded that the CEA presented a conception evaluation predominantly formative and emancipatory, which emphasized the idea of system, centered around the institution and repudiated the rankings practices. In the post-formulation period, however, some of its principles were fragmenting and, gradually, the institution was giving way to the courses and the Exame Nacional de Desempenho de Estudantes (ENADE) grew in prominence. With the creation of the Conceito Preliminar de Cursos superiores (CPC) and of the Índice Geral de Cursos da Instituição de Educação Superior (IGC), it was redemeed the practice of evaluation as measurement and control, under the principles of efficiency and productivity. So, SINAES that seemed like a progressive evaluation method has assumed a setting that close resembles the Exame Nacional de Cursos (ENC-Provão). Nevertheless, the survival of institutional formative evaluation, in the superior education evaluation policies, still an issue in dispute

O Trabalho e o labirinto da responsabilidade socioempresarial:a experiência da cidadania empresarial do Banco do Brasil

In the current systemic crisis, economic policy is directed to correct the consequences of the functioning of this metabolism, but within the limits of the capital. From this perspective, decision makers propose trade policies, agricultural and industrial to ensure conditions for economic growth. However, as a dead end, there is failure of the State in giving efficacy to the operation of all segments of the economy, especially given the budget constraint. Public managers are forced to seek external resources, resuming the cycle of political allegiance to the interests of international financial and banking representatives, installed in so-called multilateral. The complex ideological capital comes into play in trying to convince society that the paths taken by governments are inevitable, and that capitalism can be "humanized", even with the realization of the growing inequalities caused by historical irrationalism of the production process of capital . In this sense, emerging concepts that attempt to demonstrate the compatibility of the system to real human needs. This ideological offensive is intended to legitimize the capital. The so-called third sector has a special highlight with the concept of corporate social responsibility. It creates a political environment in which the inevitable mix-up with new illusions offered by and often funding the metabolism of capital in order to perpetuate this system. In this context, political elites, and considerable portions of the academy, embark on "waves of capitalist optimism," while the sociometabolismo capital expands its historical limits, driving forces postponing their collapse, but that cause human suffering and ecological stress. Wars are disseminated to strengthen the deadly war industry and the automobile industry; and devastating the environment of which depends the capital system. In this scenario disassemble, propositions emerge around a "new social pact" in order to minimize the adverse effects of the dynamics of reproduction of capital. The business class is called to exercise its role through the discourse that appeals to social responsibility programs, in order to intervene directly in the "social question". The core of this research is precisely this point. Although there is considerable scholarship on the phenomenon of Social Responsibility and Corporate Citizenship, there is also an evident lack of this approach focused on the banking sector in Brazil. The importance of rentier capital increased ownership of shares in the wealth produced by all of Brazilian society, justifies a sociological research project on Social Responsibility in the domestic financial sector. In this sense, it was decided to perform a dynamic approach to the "Corporate Citizenship" in the banking industry, specifically in the Bank of Brazil. As this is a key institution, is important analyze of the impacts of this strategy fetish of capitalist reproduction, in order to evaluate the social legitimization of rentier capital in Brazil. In this scenario of the abundance of the discourse on social responsibility there exist a progressive impoverishment of professional work in this segment in Brazil. There is a dramatic mismatch between rhetoric and practice because of the trend of deepening vulnerability of the working conditions of the Brazilian bank worker, from the 1990's. In the specific case of the Bank of Brazil, the first initiative of the institution was to conform to the principles of the UNO and the Ethos Institute, aiming to align their domestic policies to this new strategy of domination of capital. The purpose is to place the Bank in the ideological sphere of corporate social responsibility, just as with its partners in the private financial intercapitalist competition. Indeed, in the internal ambit of the Bank of Brazil, there is a policy to adjust its functional segments to the doctrine of Social Corporate Responsibility. The concepts of this doctrine is presented as something inexorable. There are no alternatives. The Bank of Brazil operates in a highly competitive market, the segment featuring the dominance of financial capital accumulation today. For this reason it can not fail to incorporate the technological advances organizational. For employees there is no alternative but to adapt to this new set of ideas proposed by the metabolism of capital

Avaliação do potencial do uso balanced scorecard: um estudo exploratório em Natal

Small businesses are experiencing growth scenario in emerging countries by the prospect of economic development, these countries, including Brazil, have a booming economy before the world crisis in the last five years, especially with the participation of small and medium enterprises. These factors generate increased competition and the need to expand market share through management actions in the quest for acquiring new customers. Moreover, these changes increase the need to properly use the information and organizational performance. Some national and international studies show the existence of peculiarities in small organizations, especially in environments of family management. Such particularities raise a scenario with several organizational deficiencies regarding the evaluation of their performance. In some cases, when there are static systems, traditional and focused only on the financial perspective, especially short term. Alternatively, the tools encourage strategic planning and observance of medium and long term, in many ways, whether financial, internal processes, customers, suppliers, and innovation, among others. Therefore, this study aims to identify and analyze the applicability of the system performance evaluation with emphasis on strategic and BSC - Balanced Scorecard. Regarding the research method, is classified as exploratory, with the participation of 25 companies, whose research was conducted between 2012 and 2013. Therefore, the research included the construction process and a structured questionnaire on practices and interest for the use of strategic tools, with emphasis on the Balanced Scorecard. Whose main result presented a high degree of interest in the applicability of the BSC by most of the participating institutions. Furthermore, It was observed the growing interest in using the Balanced Scorecard when it increases the company size, regardless of the area of market action. Participating companies have shown an outline of the strategic objectives and the establishment of indicators for assessing the performance due to their correlations with the BSC

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

Extração e Representação de Conhecimento de Séries Temporais de Demanda de Energia Elétrica Usando TSKR

The opening of the Brazilian market of electricity and competitiveness between companies in the energy sector make the search for useful information and tools that will assist in decision making activities, increase by the concessionaires. An important source of knowledge for these utilities is the time series of energy demand. The identification of behavior patterns and description of events become important for the planning execution, seeking improvements in service quality and financial benefits. This dissertation presents a methodology based on mining and representation tools of time series, in order to extract knowledge that relate series of electricity demand in various substations connected of a electric utility. The method exploits the relationship of duration, coincidence and partial order of events in multi-dimensionals time series. To represent the knowledge is used the language proposed by Mörchen (2005) called Time Series Knowledge Representation (TSKR). We conducted a case study using time series of energy demand of 8 substations interconnected by a ring system, which feeds the metropolitan area of Goiânia-GO, provided by CELG (Companhia Energética de Goiás), responsible for the service of power distribution in the state of Goiás (Brazil). Using the proposed methodology were extracted three levels of knowledge that describe the behavior of the system studied, representing clearly the system dynamics, becoming a tool to assist planning activities