Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Barracas de Praia, praia de barracas: configuração, tipo e usos na praia do futuro, Fortaleza CE

The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the importance of the huts of Praia do Futuro to their users and to the city of Fortaleza in Ceará through the comprehension of relations between morphological categories - in urban and edified contexts - of the establishments and their use patterns. This place is one of the main recreation and leisure areas of the city, formed by six kilometres of waterfront, corresponding to a differentiated area through the coast. This space has beach huts with varied profiles: while some more simple huts persist, great complexes are being developed, building even water parks on the beach area. This study analyses relations between:i) spatial configuration (in geometric and mainly topological terms) based on the Social Logic of Space; ii) edified typology (analysing capacity, landscap treatment and program of the huts); and iii) use and environmental perception of the beach by its frequenters. There are consistent relations between the type of hut and their localization in the urban grid, of which were identified groups with different patterns: segregated (north, central and south) and integrated (north: more integrated. and south: less integrated). Such relations also reflect, in varied patterns of use and environmental perception. In spite of their strong economy, the beach huts find themselves in a fragile legal situation because they occupy the beach area, so that this study may come to assist the decision-making for the future of the region. For a sustainable development of the area by those responsible and managers it is necessary to evaluate the cultural importance of the huts at Praia do Futuro, understanding their occupation and uses.

A tutela constitucional da exploração de petróleo em águas internacionais em face do princípio do desenvolvimento sustentável: a possibilidade de responsabilização civil do dano futuro

The demands brought by a society doomed to the constant production of global risks, which whose effects are not immediately noticed effects are not perceived immediately, claim from the Law a new Theory about the Risk, that would offer a broad environmental protection, at the same time it would still be compatible with the idea of economic efficiency, required by the Modern Industry. The expansion of the methods and technologies regarding the exploitation and production of oil causes the constant expansion of the exploitable boundaries, especially in ultra-deep waters with the Pre-salt layer, in Brazil, or the still incipient research about the polymetallic nodules and other mineral sources in international waters, like the Atlântico Sudoeste, by the Programme on Ocean Science in Relation do Non Living Resources (OSNLR), a global study performed in partnership with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, from UNESCO (IOC UNESCO) and also with the Division of Ocean Affairs and Law of the Sea (UNDOALOS). Thus, we aim to analyze the correlation, and possible collisions between the right to a balanced environment and the free exercise of economic activity and the occurrence of environmental damages from the perspective of the exploitation activities of oil and other natural resources in international waters, specifically in the Area, from the constitutional principle of sustainable development and its legitimacy by the environmental international protection. Therefore, this study also aims to evaluate the legal framework for exploration and production of oil in international waters, particularly in the Area, and appraise how the constitutional instruments and mechanisms for environmental protection can impact on the international environmental protection system in order to ensure the present and future generations an ecologically balanced environment, laid down in Article 225 of the Brazilian Constitution, even with so many risks posed by the activities of exploitation and production of oil in international waters. In the meantime, we intend to also intend to investigate the possibility of future liability for environmental damage in order to ensure that constitutional principle and, consequently, and try to define the concept of environmental damage and its implications on the constitutional principle of environmental protection. Given all that was in summary, this work aims to contribute to the evolution of the new Theory of Environmental Risk, turning the law into something more than a punitive or corrective element in this society, but into a legal risk management, that may be triggered even before the consolidation of the damage

Vou estar fazendo ... um estudo funcionalista de uma (nova) forma perifrástica de futuro

The work in evidence analyzes the use in the ways periphasis of gerund - FPG - (to go+to be+gerund) in the speech (gender class) of the teachers of Natal, Caicó and Serra Negra do Norte, potiguares cities. For that, she opted to constitute corpus, once the data found in other corpora they were inexpressive for the research. The study tries to elucidate the reasons that take the speaker to use a form of larger future in detriment of the more it tans; it investigates as it feels the manifestation of the grammaticalization and demarcation - beginnings givonianos. Besides Givón (1979, 1984, 1990, 1995 e 2001), other authors served as light: Cunha (1986); Bechara (2007); Cunha and Cintra (2007); Perini (2006); Neves (2000, 2006) Silva (2005); Furtado da Cunha and Tavares (2007); Gibbon (2000); Torres (2009). After the study, the results that point the appearance in a new way of future expression emerged, marked and with tendency the grammaticalization

O futuro do presente: a mídia audiovisual e a sociedade contemporânea na ficção científica do cinema de animação

This research presents a study that seeks to analyze the images of the future in science fiction movies, specifically those made through animation techniques, exploring particularly the representation of audiovisual communication medias in its dialogue with the approached societies in the movies chosen to be analyzed. The proposed discussion seeks approximations in order to answer to the question that initiated this research: how are we thinking the future nowadays? It also seeks to, according to Morin (1997), comprehend aspects of the contemporary society by using the cinema, and at the same time, to understand the cinema, aided by a social analysis

As chaves para o mundo do quinto império: as imagens de mundo na história do futuro do padre Antonio Vieira

Iconic historical figure, Antônio Vieira (1608-1697) is regarded as an essential character to the Luso-Brazilian history. Between 1646 and 1667, the priest began writing the History of the Future, the first volume of the celebrated "Clavis Prophetarum , political and theological unity that would leverage the process of spread of Christianity across the globe, recognizing Portugal as forefront and center of all millenarian movement. Them, Jesuit represented the "World" in two metaphors: "theater" and "body" responsible for viewing spaces of abstract Christian truth. Starting from the hermeneutical assumptions of analysis, we investigated the historical relations present in the construction of such representations, by which establish the dialogue between politics, theology and seventeenth-century rhetoric. Therefore, the following study supports the hypothesis that beyond a mere stylistic expressions, spatial metaphors of "World" were formulated by Antonio Vieira as a resource that could sharpen the minds of his readers, engaging words into action, become alive and effective use of rhetoric

Neurofisiologia hipocampal durante sessões de sono intercaladas por exploração espacial: Reverberação do passado ou predição do futuro?

The ability to predict future rewards or threats is crucial for survival. Recent studies have addressed future event prediction by the hippocampus. Hippocampal neurons exhibit robust selectivity for spatial location. Thus, the activity of hippocampal neurons represents a cognitive map of space during navigation as well as during planning and recall. Spatial selectivity allows the hippocampus to be involved in the formation of spatial and episodic memories, including the sequential ordering of events. On the other hand, the discovery of reverberatory activity in multiple forebrain areas during slow wave and REM sleep underscored the role of sleep on the consolidation of recently acquired memory traces. To this date, there are no studies addressing whether neuronal activity in the hippocampus during sleep can predict regular environmental shifts. The aim of the present study was to investigate the activity of neuronal populations in the hippocampus during sleep sessions intercalated by spatial exploration periods, in which the location of reward changed in a predictable way. To this end, we performed the chronic implantation of 32-channel multielectrode arrays in the CA1 regions of the hippocampus in three male rats of the Wistar strain. In order to activate different neuronal subgroups at each cycle of the task, we exposed the animals to four spatial exploration sessions in a 4-arm elevated maze in which reward was delivered in a single arm per session. Reward location changed regularly at every session in a clockwise manner, traversing all the arms at the end of the daily recordings. Animals were recorded from 2-12 consecutive days. During spatial exploration of the 4-arm elevated maze, 67,5% of the recorded neurons showed firing rate differences across the maze arms. Furthermore, an average of 42% of the neurons showed increased correlation (R>0.3) between neuronal pairs in each arm. This allowed us to sort representative neuronal subgroups for each maze arm, and to analyze the activity of these subgroups across sleep sessions. We found that neuronal subgroups sorted by firing rate differences during spatial exploration sustained these differences across sleep sessions. This was not the case with neuronal subgroups sorted according to synchrony (correlation). In addition, the correlation levels between sleep sessions and waking patterns sampled in each arm were larger for the entire population of neurons than for the rate or synchrony subgroups. Neuronal activity during sleep of the entire neuronal population or subgroups did not show different correlations among the four arm mazes. On the other hand, we verified that neuronal activity during pre-exploration sleep sessions was significantly more similar to the activity patterns of the target arm than neuronal activity during pre-exploration sleep sessions. In other words, neuronal activity during sleep that precedes the task reflects more strongly the location of reward than neuronal activity during sleep that follows the task. Our results suggest that neuronal activity during sleep can predict regular environmental changes

Ausência do pai ao longo do desenvolvimento ontogenético e indicadores de desconto de futuro: uma contribuição da psicologia evolucionista

The new Evolutionary Psychology (E. P.) paradigm has been trying to understand how the human beings make their decisions over time regarding the most diverse variables, always bearing in mind that such a cognitive process is due to a complex natural selection process that occurred millions of years ago. One of the main topics discussed by this new paradigm is the issue of parental investment, i.e., the care the parents provide to an offspring at the expense of the investment into a new one. The present work sought to integrate these two topics, trying to understand how some variables modulate the process of decision making in a sample of the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte state. It was investigated the hypothesis that the presence of both parents, along the individual development, could signal a more favorable environment, providing clues to the individual that he could assume a competitive position at the socio-biological market. His decisions, therefore, could be guided by long-term investments with aims to obtain more robust rewards. On the contrary, those who has suffered for some moment the absence of one the parents could develop theirselves in a not so competitive way, starting to choose immediate benefits - but lesser ones -, since the future would be less predictable due to their worse development conditions. This study involved 152 individuals from three higher education institutions, one of them being public and the others being private ones. In the results found, there was no difference between children of coupled parents and children of deceased or divorced parents concerning discount rates. The levels of hopelessness did not affect the discount rates of children of single parents when compared to children of coupled parents. Not having one of the parents because of divorce made the child to tend to present lower scores in the domain of social relations of WHOQOL - Bref, whilst the absence of the father by death made the scores lower in the domain of environment. The results indicate that loosing one of the parents along the development influences the individual's quality of life perception, but the measurement method of future discounting rates by means of financial choices is not sensitive to this variation