Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Avaliação do impacto do plano de expansão da rede federal na qualidade dos institutos federais de educação segundo indicadores de desempenho

The Expansion Plan of the Federal Network of Vocational Education foresees the construction of 860 new units of instruction until 2020, representing a strong growth against the 140 existing units prior to its disclosure by Federal Government of Brazil, in 2005. The Federal Institutes of Education, Science and Technology have been performing the expansion while experiencing the shortcomings and challenges of units still in development, created in previous phases of the Plan. The quality of the services of these institutions has been evaluated by the control bodies, which require the submission of performance indicators in annual management reports of institutions under their jurisdiction. In this context of expansion process, particularly, is desirable to identify possible changes in quality standards. Thus, this research was motivated by the following problem: there was difference in the performance of the Federal Institutes of Education, Science and Technology after the inauguration of the first units of phase II of the Expansion Plan of the Federal Network of Vocational Education? This is an exploratory-descriptive, ex-post-facto, quantitative approach research, which aims to contribute to the knowledge of the impact of the expansion of the Federal Network. The data were collected from 12 indicators presented in management reports of 38 Federal Institutes through years 2007 to 2011 to evaluate the performances using descriptive statistical techniques. The indicators were analyzed in both consolidated and open manners by the following perspectives: country region, growth of instruction units and institutions origin. Was also performed a multivariate analysis of clusters in order to identify excellence groups of Institutes. The results showed differences in the expansion plan s development among Brazilian regions, both in terms of infrastructure and academic indicators, with better results in the Midwest and South, and that there are differentiated profiles of institutes as its origin, where the best quality indicators occur in those originated by integration of different educational institutions. Still, were identified two excellence groups, with emphasis on academic management, human resources and expansion

Avaliação dos impactos ambientais e sociais gerados pela utilização do kit Embrapa de ordenha manual na produção de leite de cabra

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Avaliação de política pública: o ProInfo e sua gestão no município de Parnamirim (2009-2012)

The dissertation assesses aspects of the management of IT in Education Program (ProInfo), in the municipality of Parnamirim-RN. Checks as their management functions, with the following objectives: a) Examine whether the objectives of the activities related to teachers' program are being implemented according to the official documents, b) examine if there is a monitoring program activities as the activities of teachers c) Identify whether teachers develop activities and environments using the technological resources of the internet. The research brings a central issue: How ProInfo is subsidizing the activities of the teachers involved in the program to achieve their goals effectively? As a central hypothesis of this work, to be a general north to the research, we have: the ProInfo establishes a fragile and discontinuous link between the management of the activities of teachers and the goals that he sets. The hypothesis was validated by the analysis of data from field research, when we encounter a series of limiting aspects of program effectiveness at the municipal level. This research was undertaken with managers of state and municipal schools and teachers, using a sample of four schools Parnamirim-RN, in order to include some aspects of program management at the municipal level and effectiveness goals proposed, focusing on teachers who participated in the training. The methodological process consisted of literature review, interviews and documentary analysis carried to the organs responsible for ProInfo statewide (UNDIME/RN ) and municipal level, next to the Municipal Education Parnamirim-RN. Based on data collected from empirical field research, it was found that the ProInfo lacks periodic reviews by the governing bodies of the program, about the actions developed through appropriate instruments, which enable a more realistic view of the results of the program ex post (during or after deployment)