Estudo da estimativa da incerteza de medição para determinação do BS&W e da vazão aplicado no laboratório de avaliação de medição do petróleo

The considered work presents the procedure for evaluation of the uncertainty related to the calibration of flow measurers and to BS&W. It is about a new method of measurement purposed by the conceptual project of the laboratory LAMP, at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, that intends to determine the conventional true value of the BS&W from the total height of the liquid column in the auditor tank, hydrostatic pressure exerted by the liquid column, local gravity, specific mass of the water and the specific mass of the oil, and, to determine the flow, from total height of liquid column and transfer time. The calibration uses a automatized system of monitoration and data acquisition of some necessary largnesses to determine of flow and BS&W, allowing a better trustworthiness of through measurements

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

Simulação de fluxo de fluidos em meios porosos desordenados uma análise de efeito de escala na estimativa da permeabilidade e do coeficiente de arrasto

The present study provides a methodology that gives a predictive character the computer simulations based on detailed models of the geometry of a porous medium. We using the software FLUENT to investigate the flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a random fractal medium which simplifies a two-dimensional disordered porous medium representing a petroleum reservoir. This fractal model is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose size distribution function follows a power law where exponent is defined as the fractal dimension of fractionation Dff of the model characterizing the process of fragmentation these obstacles. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The modeling process incorporates modern concepts, scaling laws, to analyze the influence of heterogeneity found in the fields of the porosity and of the permeability in such a way as to characterize the medium in terms of their fractal properties. This procedure allows numerically analyze the measurements of permeability k and the drag coefficient Cd proposed relationships, like power law, for these properties on various modeling schemes. The purpose of this research is to study the variability provided by these heterogeneities where the velocity field and other details of viscous fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically the continuity and Navier-Stokes equations at pore level and observe how the fractal dimension of fractionation of the model can affect their hydrodynamic properties. This study were considered two classes of models, models with constant porosity, MPC, and models with varying porosity, MPV. The results have allowed us to find numerical relationship between the permeability, drag coefficient and the fractal dimension of fractionation of the medium. Based on these numerical results we have proposed scaling relations and algebraic expressions involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon. In this study analytical equations were determined for Dff depending on the geometrical parameters of the models. We also found a relation between the permeability and the drag coefficient which is inversely proportional to one another. As for the difference in behavior it is most striking in the classes of models MPV. That is, the fact that the porosity vary in these models is an additional factor that plays a significant role in flow analysis. Finally, the results proved satisfactory and consistent, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the referred methodology for all applications analyzed in this study.

Modelos matemáticos para estimativa do consumo máximo de oxigênio pela ventilometria de esforço em indivíduos saudáveis

The relation between metabolic demand and maximal oxygen consumption during exercise have been investigated in different areas of knowledge. In the health field, the determination of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is considered a method to classify the level of physical fitness or the risk of cardiocirculatory diseases. The accuracy to obtain data provides a better evaluation of functional responses and allows a reduction in the error margin at the moment of risk classification, as well as, at the moment of determination of aerobic exercise work load. In Brasil, the use of respirometry associated to ergometric test became an opition in the cardiorespiratory evaluation. This equipment allows predictions concerning the oxyredutase process, making it possible to identify physiological responses to physical effort as the respiratory threshold. This thesis focused in the development of mathematical models developed by multiple regression validated by the stepwise method, aiming to predict the VO2max based on respiratory responses to physical effort. The sample was composed of a ramdom sample of 181 healthy individuals, men and women, that were randomized to two groups: regression group and cross validation group (GV). The voluntiars were submitted to a incremental treadmill test; objetiving to determinate of the second respiratory threshold (LVII) and the Peak VO2max. Using the método forward addition method 11 models of VO2max prediction in trendmill were developded. No significative differences were found between the VO2max meansured and the predicted by models when they were compared using ANOVA One-Way and the Post Hoc test of Turkey. We concluded that the developed mathematical models allow a prediction of the VO2max of healthy young individuals based on the LVII

Estado nutricional antropométrico, perfil lipídico e consumo alimentar como fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular em adolescentes

The dyslipidemia and excess weight in adolescents, when combined, suggest a progression of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Besides these, the dietary habits and lifestyle have also been considered unsuitable impacting the development of chronic diseases. The study objectives were: (1) estimate the prevalence of lipid profile and correlate with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist / height ratio (WHR) in adolescents, considering the maturation sexual, (2) know the sources of variance in the diet and the number of days needed to estimate the usual diet of adolescents and (3) describe the dietary patterns and lifestyle of adolescents, family history of CVD and age correlates them with the patterns of risk for CVD, adjusted for sexual maturation. A cross-sectional study was performed with 432 adolescents, aged 10-19 years from public schools of the Natal city, Brazil. The dyslipidemias were evaluated considering the lipid profile, the index of I Castelli (TC / HDL) and II (LDL / HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol. Anthropometric indicators were BMI, WC and WHR. The intake of energy, nutrients including fiber, fatty acids and cholesterol was estimated from two 24-hour recalls (24HR). The variables of lipid profile, anthropometric and clinical data were used in the models of Pearson correlation and linear regression, considering the sexual maturation. The variance ratio of the diet was calculated from the component-person variance, determined by analysis of variance (ANOVA). The definition of the number of days to estimate the usual intake of each nutrient was obtained by taking the hypothetical correlation (r) ≥ 0.9, between nutrient intake and the true observed. We used the principal component analysis as a method of extracting factors that 129 accounted for the dependent variables and known cardiovascular risk obtained from the lipid profile, the index for Castelli I and II, non-HDL cholesterol, BMI, and WC the WHR. Dietary patterns and lifestyle were obtained from the independent variables, based on nutrients consumed and physical activity weekly. In the study of principal component analysis (PCA) was investigated associations between the patterns of cardiovascular risk factors in dietary patterns and lifestyle, age and positive family history of CVD, through bivariate and multiple logistic regression adjusted for sexual maturation. The low HDL-C dyslipidemia was most prevalent (50.5%) for adolescents. Significant correlations were observed between hypercholesterolemia and positive family history of CVD (r = 0.19, p <0.01) and hypertriglyceridemia with BMI (r = 0.30, p <0.01), with the CC (r = 0.32, p <0.01) and WHR (r = 0.33, p <0.01). The linear model constructed with sexual maturation, age and BMI explained about 1 to 10.4% of the variation in the lipid profile. The sources of variance between individuals were greater for all nutrients in both sexes. The reasons for variances were  1 for all nutrients were higher in females. The results suggest that to assess the diet of adolescents with greater precision, 2 days would be enough to R24h consumption of energy, carbohydrates, fiber, saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids. In contrast, 3 days would be recommended for protein, lipid, polyunsaturated fatty acids and cholesterol. Two cardiovascular risk factors as have been extracted in the ACP, referring to the dependent variables: the standard lipid profile (HDL-C and non-HDL cholesterol) and "standard anthropometric index (BMI, WC, WHR) with a power explaining 75% of the variance of the original data. The factors are representative of two independent variables led to dietary patterns, "pattern 130 western diet" and "pattern protein diet", and one on the lifestyle, "pattern energy balance". Together, these patterns provide an explanation power of 67%. Made adjustment for sexual maturation in males remained significant variables: the associations between puberty and be pattern anthropometric indicator (OR = 3.32, CI 1.34 to 8.17%), and between family history of CVD and the pattern lipid profile (OR = 2.62, CI 1.20 to 5.72%). In females adolescents, associations were identified between age after the first stage of puberty with anthropometric pattern (OR = 3.59, CI 1.58 to 8.17%) and lipid profile (OR = 0.33, CI 0.15 to 0.75%). Conclusions: The low HDL-C was the most prevalent dyslipidemia independent of sex and nutritional status of adolescents. Hypercholesterolemia was influenced by family history of CVD and sexual maturation, in turn, hypertriglyceridemia was closely associated with anthropometric indicators. The variance between the diets was greater for all nutrients. This fact reflected in a variance ratio less than 1 and consequently in a lower number of days requerid to estimate the usual diet of adolescents considering gender. The two dietary patterns were extracted and the pattern considered unhealthy lifestyle as healthy. The associations were found between the patterns of CVD risk with age and family history of CVD in the studied adolescents

Sobrevivência de adultos e estimativa populacional da guaracava-de-topete-uniforme elaenia cristata (aves: tyrannidae) em fragmento de mata atlântica no Nordeste do Brasil

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Modelagem de usinas eólicas através de um processo de Markov e técnicas de confiabilidade para a estimativa anual da energia produzida

This study aims to use a computational model that considers the statistical characteristics of the wind and the reliability characteristics of a wind turbine, such as failure rates and repair, representing the wind farm by a Markov process to determine the estimated annual energy generated, and compare it with a real case. This model can also be used in reliability studies, and provides some performance indicators that will help in analyzing the feasibility of setting up a wind farm, once the power curve is known and the availability of wind speed measurements. To validate this model, simulations were done using the database of the wind farm of Macau PETROBRAS. The results were very close to the real, thereby confirming that the model successfully reproduced the behavior of all components involved. Finally, a comparison was made of the results presented by this model, with the result of estimated annual energy considering the modeling of the distribution wind by a statistical distribution of Weibull

Estimativa da evapotranspiração espacial em uma região semiárida utilizando sensoriamento remoto

With the need to deploy management and monitoring systems of natural resources in areas susceptible to environmental degradation, as is the case of semiarid regions, several works have been developed in order to find effective models and technically and economically viable. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the daily actual evapotranspiration (ETr) through the application of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), from remote sensing products, in a semiarid region, Seridó of the Rio Grande do Norte, and do the validation of these estimates using ETr values obtained by the Penman-Monteith (standard method of the Food and Agriculture Organization-FAO). The SEBAL is based on energy balance method, which allows obtaining the vertical latent heat flux (LE) with orbital images and, consequently, of the evapotranspiration through the difference of flows, also vertical, of heat in the soil (G), sensitive heat (H) and radiation balance (Rn). The study area includes the surrounding areas of the Dourado reservoir, located in the Currais Novos/RN city. For the implementation of the algorithm were used five images TM/Landsat-5. The work was divided in three chapters in order to facilitate a better discussion of each part of the SEBAL processing, distributed as follows: first chapter addressing the spatio-temporal variability of the biophysical variables; second chapter dealing with spatio-temporal distribution of instant and daily radiation balance; and the third chapter discussing the heart of the work, the daily actual evapotranspiration estimation and the validation than to the study area

Estimativa populacional e uso do hábitat do boto-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte

Four areas are known as of frequent usage by Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte state, northeast Brazil: Tabatinga, Pipa, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Baia Formosa. This extension of 40 km of shoreline is under increasing anthropogenic impacts due to continuous development of the coastal areas and vessel traffic. The objective of this study was to investigate aspects of population biology and habitat use of the population of Sotalia guianensis in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte. It was applied the photo-identification technique and posterior methods of capture-recapture for population estimation (POPAN extension in MARK). The distribution, movement and site fidelity of the dolphins were analyzed trough the geographic information system (GIS) and group characteristics and behavior trough non-parametric statistics. Field work was conducted on board a 10m motor vessel from March 2008 to March 2009. Photo-identification effort was 329h with 113h of direct observation of the dolphins. The population estimatives for each area: Tabatinga: 75 (63-92); Pipa 105 (88-129); Lagoa de Guaraíras: 27 (18-54) e Baia Formosa: 112 (89-129) individuals. Total population estimative was: 223 (192 a 297). High site fidelity was detected for only part of the population (<15%) as low site fidelity and transients individuals were also detected (>20%). It was observed frequent movements between Tabatinga, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Pipa, but not Baía Formosa. This suggests a division in two communities along this shore extension: one in Pipa and other in Baía Formosa. Group size was small, most groups with up to 10 dolphins. The areas were use intensively, only in Lagoa de Guaraíras dolphins were not seen in all field trips. Lagoa de Guaraíras is an area used by small groups exclusively for foraging. In Tabatinga and Pipa dolphins concentrated close to the shore, in the inner sector of the area and the main activity is also foraging. Significant larger groups were seen in socializing behavior but there was no difference in group size between the inner and external sectors of the area. The presence of calves and juveniles were significant greater in the inner areas of Tabatinga and Pipa, confirming the hypothesis that these beaches are also used for parental care. In Baia Formosa dolphins concentrated in the outer sector and foraging was also predominant. Significant larger groups were seen in the outer sector, mainly engaged in mixed behaviors of travel/foraging, possibly in some kind of group foraging. Calves and juveniles were significant more present in the outer sector where group size was also larger. In general there was no difference in area usage and period of the day. Sotalia guianensis has characteristics that make the species vulnerable to human activities such as small population concentrated in patches of suitable habitats restrict to coastal areas. We hope that this study bring new information for the species and help for the adequate management of the area in order to assure the presence of the dolphins as well as its behavior pattern and gene flow betweencommunities.

Detecção e diagnóstico de falhas não-supervisionados baseados em estimativa de densidade recursiva e classificador fuzzy auto-evolutivo

In this work, we propose a two-stage algorithm for real-time fault detection and identification of industrial plants. Our proposal is based on the analysis of selected features using recursive density estimation and a new evolving classifier algorithm. More specifically, the proposed approach for the detection stage is based on the concept of density in the data space, which is not the same as probability density function, but is a very useful measure for abnormality/outliers detection. This density can be expressed by a Cauchy function and can be calculated recursively, which makes it memory and computational power efficient and, therefore, suitable for on-line applications. The identification/diagnosis stage is based on a self-developing (evolving) fuzzy rule-based classifier system proposed in this work, called AutoClass. An important property of AutoClass is that it can start learning from scratch". Not only do the fuzzy rules not need to be prespecified, but neither do the number of classes for AutoClass (the number may grow, with new class labels being added by the on-line learning process), in a fully unsupervised manner. In the event that an initial rule base exists, AutoClass can evolve/develop it further based on the newly arrived faulty state data. In order to validate our proposal, we present experimental results from a level control didactic process, where control and error signals are used as features for the fault detection and identification systems, but the approach is generic and the number of features can be significant due to the computationally lean methodology, since covariance or more complex calculations, as well as storage of old data, are not required. The obtained results are significantly better than the traditional approaches used for comparison

Estimativa de expoentes críticos em Percolação

In Percolation Theory, functions like the probability that a given site belongs to the infinite cluster, average size of clusters, etc. are described through power laws and critical exponents. This dissertation uses a method called Finite Size Scaling to provide a estimative of those exponents. The dissertation is divided in four parts. The first one briefly presents the main results for Site Percolation Theory for d = 2 dimension. Besides, some important quantities for the determination of the critical exponents and for the phase transistions understanding are defined. The second shows an introduction to the fractal concept, dimension and classification. Concluded the base of our study, in the third part the Scale Theory is mentioned, wich relates critical exponents and the quantities described in Chapter 2. In the last part, through the Finite Size Scaling method, we determine the critical exponents fi and. Based on them, we used the previous Chapter scale relations in order to determine the remaining critical exponents

Estimativa de espessura crustal na Província Borborema (NE/Brasil) através de função do recpetor

Crustal thickness and VP/VS estimates are essential to the studies of subsurface geological structures and also to the understanding of the regional tectonic evolution of a given area. In this dissertation, we use the Langston´s (1979) Receiver Function Method using teleseismic events reaching the seismographic station with angles close to the vertical. In this method, the information of the geologic structures close to the station is isolated so that effects related to the instrument response and source mechanics are not present. The resulting time series obtained after the deconvolution between horizontal components contains the larger amplitude referring to the P arrival, followed by smaller arrival caused by the reverberation and conversion of the P-wave at the base of the crust. We also used the HK-Stacking after Zhu & Kanamori (2000) to obtain crustal thickness and Vp/VS estimates. This method works stacking receiver functions so that the best estimates of crustal thickness and Vp/VS are found when the direct P, the Ps wave and the first multiple are coherently stacked. We used five broadband seismographic stations distributed over the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. Crustal thickness and Vp/VS estimates are consistent with the crust-mantle interface obtained using gravity data. We also identified crutal thickening in the NW portion of the province, close to Sobral/CE. Towards the center-north portion of the province, there is an evident crustal thinning which coincides with a geological feature consisting of an alignment of sedimentary basins known as the Cariris-Potiguar trend. Towards the NE portion of the province, in Solânea/PB and Agrestina/PE regions, occurs a crustal thickening and a systematic increase in the VP/VS values which suggest the presence of mafic rocks in the lower crust also consistent with the hypothesis of underplating in the region

Estimativa da profundidade do embasamento na bacia potiguar usando inversão gravimétrica

The gravity inversion method is a mathematic process that can be used to estimate the basement relief of a sedimentary basin. However, the inverse problem in potential-field methods has neither a unique nor a stable solution, so additional information (other than gravity measurements) must be supplied by the interpreter to transform this problem into a well-posed one. This dissertation presents the application of a gravity inversion method to estimate the basement relief of the onshore Potiguar Basin. The density contrast between sediments and basament is assumed to be known and constant. The proposed methodology consists of discretizing the sedimentary layer into a grid of rectangular juxtaposed prisms whose thicknesses correspond to the depth to basement which is the parameter to be estimated. To stabilize the inversion I introduce constraints in accordance with the known geologic information. The method minimizes an objective function of the model that requires not only the model to be smooth and close to the seismic-derived model, which is used as a reference model, but also to honor well-log constraints. The latter are introduced through the use of logarithmic barrier terms in the objective function. The inversion process was applied in order to simulate different phases during the exploration development of a basin. The methodology consisted in applying the gravity inversion in distinct scenarios: the first one used only gravity data and a plain reference model; the second scenario was divided in two cases, we incorporated either borehole logs information or seismic model into the process. Finally I incorporated the basement depth generated by seismic interpretation into the inversion as a reference model and imposed depth constraint from boreholes using the primal logarithmic barrier method. As a result, the estimation of the basement relief in every scenario has satisfactorily reproduced the basin framework, and the incorporation of the constraints led to improve depth basement definition. The joint use of surface gravity data, seismic imaging and borehole logging information makes the process more robust and allows an improvement in the estimate, providing a result closer to the actual basement relief. In addition, I would like to remark that the result obtained in the first scenario already has provided a very coherent basement relief when compared to the known basin framework. This is significant information, when comparing the differences in the costs and environment impact related to gravimetric and seismic surveys and also the well drillings

Estimativa do fluxo de calor e da difusividade térmica do solo, baseado na solução da derivada temporal fracionária de meia ordem em ferramenta de software

The soil heat flux and soil thermal diffusivity are important components of the surface energy balance, especially in ar id and semi-arid regions. The obj ective of this work was to carry out to estimate the soil heat flux from th e soil temperature measured at a single depth, based on the half-order time derivative met hod proposed by Wang and Bras (1999), and to establish a method capable of es timating the thermal diffusivity of the soil, based on the half order derivative, from the temporal series of soil temperature at two depths. The results obtained in the estimates of soil heat flux were compared with the values of soil heat flux measured through flux plates, and the thermal di ffusivity estimated was compared with the measurements carried out in situ. The results obtained showed excellent concordance between the estimated and measured soil heat flux, with correlation (r), coeffici ent of determination (R 2 ) and standard error (W/m 2 ) of: r = 0.99093, R 2 = 0.98194 and error = 2.56 (W/m 2 ) for estimated period of 10 days; r = 0,99069, R 2 = 0,98147 and error = 2.59 (W/m 2 ) for estimated period of 30 days; and r = 0,98974, R 2 = 0,97958 and error = 2.77 (W/m 2 ) for estimated period of 120 days. The values of thermal di ffusivity estimated by the proposed method showed to be coherent and consis tent with in situ measured va lues, and with the values found in the literature usi ng conventional methods.

Fluxo de fluído através de um meio poroso fractal desordenado. Análise das tensões de cisalhamento e efeito de escala na estimativa das forças viscosas

In this work we have investigated some aspects of the two-dimensional flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a disordered porous medium modeled by a random fractal system similar to the Sierpinski carpet. This fractal is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose distribution function follows a power law. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The velocity field and other details of fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically of the Navier-Stokes and continuity equations at the pore level, where occurs actually the flow of fluids in porous media. The results of numerical simulations allowed us to analyze the distribution of shear stresses developed in the solid-fluid interfaces, and find algebraic relations between the viscous forces or of friction with the geometric parameters of the model, including its fractal dimension. Based on the numerical results, we proposed scaling relations involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon, allowing quantifying the fractions of these forces with respect to size classes of obstacles. Finally, it was also possible to make inferences about the fluctuations in the form of the distribution of viscous stresses developed on the surface of obstacles.