Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo e métodos de calibração multivariada aplicados à determinação simultânea de parâmetros bioquímicos em plasma sanguíneo

In this work, the quantitative analysis of glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol (total and HDL) in both rat and human blood plasma was performed without any kind of pretreatment of samples, by using near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) combined with multivariate methods. For this purpose, different techniques and algorithms used to pre-process data, to select variables and to build multivariate regression models were compared between each other, such as partial least squares regression (PLS), non linear regression by artificial neural networks, interval partial least squares regression (iPLS), genetic algorithm (GA), successive projections algorithm (SPA), amongst others. Related to the determinations of rat blood plasma samples, the variables selection algorithms showed satisfactory results both for the correlation coefficients (R²) and for the values of root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for the three analytes, especially for triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL. The RMSEP values for glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL obtained through the best PLS model were 6.08, 16.07 e 2.03 mg dL-1, respectively. In the other case, for the determinations in human blood plasma, the predictions obtained by the PLS models provided unsatisfactory results with non linear tendency and presence of bias. Then, the ANN regression was applied as an alternative to PLS, considering its ability of modeling data from non linear systems. The root mean square error of monitoring (RMSEM) for glucose, triglycerides and total cholesterol, for the best ANN models, were 13.20, 10.31 e 12.35 mg dL-1, respectively. Statistical tests (F and t) suggest that NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate regression methods (PLS and ANN) are capable to quantify the analytes (glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol) even when they are present in highly complex biological fluids, such as blood plasma

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed

Estudo do efeito de dipolos em arranjos de antenas adaptativas de sistemas de comunicação DS-CDMA

This master dissertation introduces a study about some aspects that determine the aplication of adaptative arrays in DS-CDMA cellular systems. Some basics concepts and your evolution in the time about celular systems was detailed here, meanly the CDMA tecnique, specialy about spread-codes and funtionaly principies. Since this, the mobile radio enviroment, with your own caracteristcs, and the basics concepts about adaptive arrays, as powerfull spacial filter was aborded. Some adaptative algorithms was introduced too, these are integrants of the signals processing, and are answerable for weights update that influency directly in the radiation pattern of array. This study is based in a numerical analysis of adaptative array system behaviors related to the used antenna and array geometry types. All the simulations was done by Mathematica 4.0 software. The results for weights convergency, square mean error, gain, array pattern and supression capacity based the analisis made here, using RLS (supervisioned) and LSDRMTA (blind) algorithms

Algoritmo SOM com estrutura hierárquica e dinâmica aplicado a compressão de imagens

ln this work the implementation of the SOM (Self Organizing Maps) algorithm or Kohonen neural network is presented in the form of hierarchical structures, applied to the compression of images. The main objective of this approach is to develop an Hierarchical SOM algorithm with static structure and another one with dynamic structure to generate codebooks (books of codes) in the process of the image Vector Quantization (VQ), reducing the time of processing and obtaining a good rate of compression of images with a minimum degradation of the quality in relation to the original image. Both self-organizing neural networks developed here, were denominated HSOM, for static case, and DHSOM, for the dynamic case. ln the first form, the hierarchical structure is previously defined and in the later this structure grows in an automatic way in agreement with heuristic rules that explore the data of the training group without use of external parameters. For the network, the heuristic mIes determine the dynamics of growth, the pruning of ramifications criteria, the flexibility and the size of children maps. The LBO (Linde-Buzo-Oray) algorithm or K-means, one ofthe more used algorithms to develop codebook for Vector Quantization, was used together with the algorithm of Kohonen in its basic form, that is, not hierarchical, as a reference to compare the performance of the algorithms here proposed. A performance analysis between the two hierarchical structures is also accomplished in this work. The efficiency of the proposed processing is verified by the reduction in the complexity computational compared to the traditional algorithms, as well as, through the quantitative analysis of the images reconstructed in function of the parameters: (PSNR) peak signal-to-noise ratio and (MSE) medium squared error

Estudo do efeito de dipolos em arranjos de antenas adaptativas de sistemas de comunicação DS-CDMA

This master dissertation introduces a study about some aspects that determine the aplication of adaptative arrays in DS-CDMA cellular systems. Some basics concepts and your evolution in the time about celular systems was detailed here, meanly the CDMA tecnique, specialy about spread-codes and funtionaly principies. Since this, the mobile radio enviroment, with your own caracteristcs, and the basics concepts about adaptive arrays, as powerfull spacial filter was aborded. Some adaptative algorithms was introduced too, these are integrants of the signals processing, and are answerable for weights update that influency directly in the radiation pattern of array. This study is based in a numerical analysis of adaptative array system behaviors related to the used antenna and array geometry types. All the simulations was done by Mathematica 4.0 software. The results for weights convergency, square mean error, gain, array pattern and supression capacity based the analisis made here, using RLS (supervisioned) and LSDRMTA (blind) algorithms.

Previsão do módulo de elasticidade transversal de compósitos unidirecionais através de redes neurais mistas

The aim of this study is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) capable of modeling the transverse elasticity modulus (E2) of unidirectional composites. To that end, we used a dataset divided into two parts, one for training and the other for ANN testing. Three types of architectures from different networks were developed, one with only two inputs, one with three inputs and the third with mixed architecture combining an ANN with a model developed by Halpin-Tsai. After algorithm training, the results demonstrate that the use of ANNs is quite promising, given that when they were compared with those of the Halpín-Tsai mathematical model, higher correlation coefficient values and lower root mean square values were observed

Desenvolvimento de perfis aerodinâmicos a partir de suas características utilizando redes neurais artificiais

One of the current major concerns in engineering is the development of aircrafts that have low power consumption and high performance. So, airfoils that have a high value of Lift Coefficient and a low value for the Drag Coefficient, generating a High-Efficiency airfoil are studied and designed. When the value of the Efficiency increases, the aircraft s fuel consumption decreases, thus improving its performance. Therefore, this work aims to develop a tool for designing of airfoils from desired characteristics, as Lift and Drag coefficients and the maximum Efficiency, using an algorithm based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). For this, it was initially collected an aerodynamic characteristics database, with a total of 300 airfoils, from the software XFoil. Then, through the software MATLAB, several network architectures were trained, between modular and hierarchical, using the Back-propagation algorithm and the Momentum rule. For data analysis, was used the technique of cross- validation, evaluating the network that has the lowest value of Root Mean Square (RMS). In this case, the best result was obtained for a hierarchical architecture with two modules and one layer of hidden neurons. The airfoils developed for that network, in the regions of lower RMS, were compared with the same airfoils imported into the software XFoil

Fontes primárias da história do vácuo e da pressão atmosférica na sala de aula: cartas e jornais históricos em articulação com o livro-texto do ensino médio

The use of the History and the Philosophy of Science (HPS) for the teaching of science and scientific subjects has been advocated in recent decades. It has been pointed out that the History of Science could make for a deeper learning of scientific concepts, since it would promote a contact with the problems which that knowledge has set out to solve. Furthermore, historical episodes would serve to put the discussions about the nature of scientific knowledge into context. With a view to explore those potentialities, the literature in the field has sought to identify the challenges and obstacles for the didactic transposition of subjects from the History of Science. Amongst many aspects, the deficiencies in the training of teachers, so that they can work with the insertion of HPS in the classroom have been highlighted. Another aspect that has been mentioned to be a challenge has to do with the didactic transposition of the Primary Sources, that is, of the original texts on the History of Science. The Primary Sources have significant potentialities: making a connection possible between scientists and concepts, showing the difficulties faced during scientific endeavors, perceiving the role of mistakes as obstacles to be surpassed, not as defeat, etc. On the other hand, there has been little exploration of these concepts in an educational context, due to their own peculiarities. The original texts are often hard to understand and their interpretation demands knowledge of the historical and scientific context in which they were written, as well as skills pertaining to the conduction of research in the field of the History of Science. With this scenario in mind, the research towards this Professional MSc degree starts from the challenge of elaborating and discussing proposals which could enable the didactical transposition of the Primary Sources. We have worked specifically with Primary Sources on the History of the Vacuum and of the Atmospheric Pressure, because of the insertion of these subjects in the Brazilian High School curriculum, in connection with the didactical textbooks. "Historic Journals" were made up from clippings of the original historical texts, as was a Didactical Unit, which takes the usual textbooks as a basis and contemplates using the Journals and the entire Primary Sources in High School. At last, we have elaborated and implemented a course designed for the preparation of teachers and for being an opportunity for the discussion of the feasibility of putting these kinds of proposal into practice

Determinação de parâmetros (sólidos solúveis, pH e acidez titulável) em ameixas intactas usando espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo e seleção de comprimento de onda

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) as a rapid and non-destructive method to determine the soluble solid content (SSC), pH and titratable acidity of intact plums. Samples of plum with a total solids content ranging from 5.7 to 15%, pH from 2.72 to 3.84 and titratable acidity from 0.88 a 3.6% were collected from supermarkets in Natal-Brazil, and NIR spectra were acquired in the 714 2500 nm range. A comparison of several multivariate calibration techniques with respect to several pre-processing data and variable selection algorithms, such as interval Partial Least Squares (iPLS), genetic algorithm (GA), successive projections algorithm (SPA) and ordered predictors selection (OPS), was performed. Validation models for SSC, pH and titratable acidity had a coefficient of correlation (R) of 0.95 0.90 and 0.80, as well as a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.45ºBrix, 0.07 and 0.40%, respectively. From these results, it can be concluded that NIR spectroscopy can be used as a non-destructive alternative for measuring the SSC, pH and titratable acidity in plums

Método híbrido para detecção e diagnóstico de falhas baseado em resíduos

The detection and diagnosis of faults, ie., find out how , where and why failures occur is an important area of study since man came to be replaced by machines. However, no technique studied to date can solve definitively the problem. Differences in dynamic systems, whether linear, nonlinear, variant or invariant in time, with physical or analytical redundancy, hamper research in order to obtain a unique solution . In this paper, a technique for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) will be presented in dynamic systems using state observers in conjunction with other tools in order to create a hybrid FDD. A modified state observer is used to create a residue that allows also the detection and diagnosis of faults. A bank of faults signatures will be created using statistical tools and finally an approach using mean squared error ( MSE ) will assist in the study of the behavior of fault diagnosis even in the presence of noise . This methodology is then applied to an educational plant with coupled tanks and other with industrial instrumentation to validate the system.

Critério de correntropia no treinamento de redes fuzzy wavelet neural networks para identificação de sistemas dinâmicos não lineares

The great interest in nonlinear system identification is mainly due to the fact that a large amount of real systems are complex and need to have their nonlinearities considered so that their models can be successfully used in applications of control, prediction, inference, among others. This work evaluates the application of Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Networks (FWNN) to identify nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to noise and outliers. Generally, these elements cause negative effects on the identification procedure, resulting in erroneous interpretations regarding the dynamical behavior of the system. The FWNN combines in a single structure the ability to deal with uncertainties of fuzzy logic, the multiresolution characteristics of wavelet theory and learning and generalization abilities of the artificial neural networks. Usually, the learning procedure of these neural networks is realized by a gradient based method, which uses the mean squared error as its cost function. This work proposes the replacement of this traditional function by an Information Theoretic Learning similarity measure, called correntropy. With the use of this similarity measure, higher order statistics can be considered during the FWNN training process. For this reason, this measure is more suitable for non-Gaussian error distributions and makes the training less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In order to evaluate this replacement, FWNN models are obtained in two identification case studies: a real nonlinear system, consisting of a multisection tank, and a simulated system based on a model of the human knee joint. The results demonstrate that the application of correntropy as the error backpropagation algorithm cost function makes the identification procedure using FWNN models more robust to outliers. However, this is only achieved if the gaussian kernel width of correntropy is properly adjusted.

Relações entre mecanismos de coordenação e controle com desempenho organizacional: um estudo nas instituições públicas de ensino médio de Natal

This research aimed at relating coordination and control forms to organizational performance. The multicase study was applied in two public high schools: Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica do Rio Grande do Norte and Floriano Cavalcanti. In order to accomplish these objectives, it was developed a qualitative analysis and considered coordination and control forms of several authors. Also was considered Sander´s (1984) model of organizational performance. The mentioned model considers two criteria to analyze organizational performance: one instrumental (efficiency and efficacy) and other substantive (effectiveness e relevance). The research attempts to show the importance of balancing these criteria in a way that effectiveness and relevance becomes more important at schools. It was proven that the use of bureaucratic coordination forms has the power to influence the evaluation on the instrumental technique. At the same time, it was observed that the use of mechanisms based on the autonomy of the school is related to efficiency and efficacy. The object of this research can be considered successful