65 resultados para Desafios atuais da Estatística

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Ceará (0.90), Maranhão (0.84), Paraíba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piauí (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas

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One of the current challenges of Ubiquitous Computing is the development of complex applications, those are more than simple alarms triggered by sensors or simple systems to configure the environment according to user preferences. Those applications are hard to develop since they are composed by services provided by different middleware and it is needed to know the peculiarities of each of them, mainly the communication and context models. This thesis presents OpenCOPI, a platform which integrates various services providers, including context provision middleware. It provides an unified ontology-based context model, as well as an environment that enable easy development of ubiquitous applications via the definition of semantic workflows that contains the abstract description of the application. Those semantic workflows are converted into concrete workflows, called execution plans. An execution plan consists of a workflow instance containing activities that are automated by a set of Web services. OpenCOPI supports the automatic Web service selection and composition, enabling the use of services provided by distinct middleware in an independent and transparent way. Moreover, this platform also supports execution adaptation in case of service failures, user mobility and degradation of services quality. The validation of OpenCOPI is performed through the development of case studies, specifically applications of the oil industry. In addition, this work evaluates the overhead introduced by OpenCOPI and compares it with the provided benefits, and the efficiency of OpenCOPI s selection and adaptation mechanism

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Brazilian Psychiatry Reform, through Psychosocial Care Strategy, has intended to build insane people care practices from community care services which contemplates the subjects complete lives. However, to change the traditional care ways demands the facing of a series of epistemological, political and cultural obstacles. One of the current challenges deals with patients aggravation processes, with management ways, with devices and with professionals, as well as with the assistance network. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate how these aggravation processes has been constituted in Natal mental healthcare network, understanding its effects in the work teams and patients. Theoretical and methodological perspective used was Institutional analysis was, subsidizing the usage of concept-tools as the implication analysis, selfmanagement and self-analysis, and restitution. The research was carried out at the Natal East Sanitary District Mental Healthcare Clinic, with the participation of technicians and patients. The research procedures were: literature and document research on the attendance and the analyzed theme; attendance registers analysis; participating observation of the institutional routine for three months and field log entries; talking groups, one with the team and one with the patients. Two main discussion points are shown: 1. The mental healthcare clinic organization logic and the intersector politics; 2. The work and management processes developed at the mental healthcare clinic. The analysis show diversity in the attended demands in the service, which has favored the patients aggravation, this device and the substitute network processes. The work processes are apart from the political sphere and from the managements processes. In this sense, we show the need to reevaluate the clinic device as well as the management models adopted in the Brazilian Psychiatry Reform context

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The vehicles are the main mobile sources of carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbons (HC) released into the atmosphere. In the last years the increment of the fleet of vehicles in the municipal district of Natal-RN it is contributing to the increase of the emissions of those pollutants. The study consisted of a statistical analysis of the emissions of CO and HC of a composed sample for 384 vehicles with mechanization Gasoline/CNG or Alcohol/Gasoline/CNG of the municipal district of Natal-RN. The tests were accomplished in vehicles submitted to Vehicular Safety's Inspection, in the facilities of INSPETRANS, Organism of Vehicular Inspection. An partial gases analyzer allowed to measure, for each vehicle, the levels of CO and HC in two conditions of rotation of the motor (900 and 2500 rpm). The statistical analysis accomplished through the STATISTICA software revealed a sensitive reduction in the efficiency of the converters catalytic after 6 years of use with emission average it is of 0,78% of CO and 156 (ppm) of HC, Which represents approximately 4 (four) times the amount of CO and the double of HC in comparison with the newest vehicles. The result of a Student s t-test, suggests strongly that the average of the emissions of HC (152 ppm), at 900 rpm, is 40% larger than at 2500 rpm, for the motor without load. This result reveals that the efficiency of the catalytic conversion is limited kinetically in low engine speeds. The Study also ends that when comparing the emissions of CO and HC considering the influence of the fuels, it was verified that although the emissions of CO starting from CNG are 62% smaller than arising from the gasoline, there are not significant differences among the emissions of HC originating from of CNG and of the gasoline. In synthesis, the results place the current criteria of vehicular inspection, for exhaust gases, in doubt, leading the creation of emission limits of pollutant more rigorous, because the efficiency of the converters catalytic is sensibly reduced starting from 6 years of use. It is also raised the possibility of modifications in the test conditions adopted by the current norms, specifically in the speed engine, have seen that in the condition without load the largest emission indexes were registered in slow march. That fact that allows to suggest the dismissal of the tests in high speed engine, reducing the time of inspection in half and generating economy of fuel

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A disciplina Física do Meio Ambiente (FMA) foi criada em 1976 no Departamento de Física Teórica e Experimental da UFRN e, atualmente, faz parte da estrutura curricular do curso de Licenciatura em Física da UFRN e é de caráter obrigatório. Tal caráter se justifica, dentre outros motivos, pelo fato de que esta disciplina representa uma boa oportunidade dos licenciandos estudarem de que forma a Física pode contribuir para a compreensão de fenômenos relativos ao nosso Meio Ambiente, sejam eles relacionados às atividades humanas ou aos fenômenos naturais propriamente ditos e que, de uma forma ou de outra, afeta a sociedade. O nosso trabalho de pesquisa teve como objetivo principal elaborar um novo programa de ensino para a disciplina de Física do Meio Ambiente adequado às necessidades da educação científica para o século XXI. A pesquisa foi conduzida inicialmente com um levantamento histórico da disciplina desde sua origem no Departamento de Física ate os dias atuais, analise dos Projetos Pedagógicos do curso de Licenciatura em Física da UFRN, revisão bibliográfica sobre as definições de competências e habilidades em um contexto de ensino e segundo o pensamento de vanguarda nesse campo de pesquisa, acompanhamento do curso durante um semestre através de aulas observacionais, aplicação de questionário para a coleta de dados e análise de alguns livros didáticos de Física do Ensino Médio. A partir do perfil ou modelo profissional para o licenciado em Física da UFRN definimos os objetivos gerais para a disciplina de FMA em termos de habilidades gerais relacionadas com as atividades que um futuro professor de Física irá desempenhar no seu dia a dia. O nosso programa de ensino foi pensado no sentido de introduzir conteúdos de didática específica ao longo da disciplina, isto é, familiarizar os professores em formação com investigação e inovação didáticas voltadas para o ensino de temas que envolvam a conexão entre Física e Meio Ambiente. Como resultado de nossa pesquisa foi proposto um novo Programa de Ensino para FMA que pode ser útil aos futuros professores desta disciplina e foi elaborado segundo uma metodologia de organização científica do processo ensino

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The present study analyses the actual relations and work conditions found in the third sector in Natal city, in the context of productive restoration and increasingly retraction from the State in providing Social Service before the new approach that has been destined to the social issue. The study talks about the work of the social worker when fighting the different expressions the social issue has, such as social service provision as a way of teamwork associated to work relations and conditions, to accessible resources and quality control management. These are elements that affect and interfere in the accomplishment and in the work of the social worker itself. The State s improvement, according to neoliberal-political precepts and increasingly retraction from the public investment in the areas of social concern (health, social welfare, assistance) and in the wage and employment policy, besides expanding the partnership with the public and private areas, in search for social services with quality, it has diversified the structures of the professional work with the growth of the so called third sector institutions. However, the absorption of the social workers by the third sector groups in general, has as major features the impoverishment of work relations, the maintenance of an unequal salary model, pointing out the deadline contracts and/or single tasks that generate work instability. The research debates, with a critical view and full perspective, over the conception of the third sector, interpreted as an action that expresses functions and values, treated as a real phenomenon generated from the restoration of the capital based on neoliberal principles. This study aims for responding what the established work relations are and under what work conditions the social worker has been fitting in the third sector and how such a reality echoes in the current work conditions for a social work in the city of Natal, before this new model of state intervention that transfers part of the social service provision to distinctive divisions of society, among them the so called third sector. The research results have shown that like the other workers the social worker passes through the same crises, dilemmas, advances and challenges that occur in the world of employment and which are expressed in the drop of salary average in the growth of contemporary contracts, unemployment, and in the ever more selective requirements to one be included in the social spaces, where the professional work is done, having as a result a greater impoverishment of work relations and conditions as well as more vulnerability as a salaried occupation

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Education and community are currently intertwined, so that social practices, situated problems and emancipation processes have, more and more, entered in the school environment. Considering this context, the expansion of studies focusing on family literacy becomes necessary for the mobilization of alternatives and actions in this area. This research forms part of the project "The habitus of study: builder of a new reality in metropolitan Natal" (CAPES/OBEDUC/UFRN) and the program "Literacies and public policies: the family at school" (MEC/PROEXT/UFRN). In view of the chosen object – family literacy – therefore, we try to: 1) discuss actions implemented in a family literacy program, with specific reference to create literacy resources to register, discuss material, events, texts, 2) actions and promote forms of interaction by the family in the school environment; 2develop bonding strategies between school and families; 3) point the impact of such experiences of family literacy. To achieve these objectives, we base the discussion on theoretical contributions of the New Literacy Studies (STREET, 1984; McLAREN, 1988; BARTON & HAMILTON, 1993; KLEIMAN, 1995, 2000), focusing on Family Literacy and Literacy Project issues. Regarding to the research paradigm, we consider the Applied Linguistics field of study and we take the qualitative model (ERICKSON, 1990; BORTONI-RICARDO, 2008), with ethnographic critical approach (MOITA LOPES, 1993; THOMAS, 1993; HEATH & STREET, 2008). We understand, through our analysis, that families have much to contribute to the reality of schools, and, having seen relevance and value, these collaborators participate and act in support of the actions and the student’s education, even in the midst of complex routine situations. Still, we have learned that dialogues and activities with the community are necessary, looking forward to having involvement, local knowledge and the construction of shared learning; following this path, the collaborative environment is produced and the collaboration is effective.

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Education and community are currently intertwined, so that social practices, situated problems and emancipation processes have, more and more, entered in the school environment. Considering this context, the expansion of studies focusing on family literacy becomes necessary for the mobilization of alternatives and actions in this area. This research forms part of the project "The habitus of study: builder of a new reality in metropolitan Natal" (CAPES/OBEDUC/UFRN) and the program "Literacies and public policies: the family at school" (MEC/PROEXT/UFRN). In view of the chosen object – family literacy – therefore, we try to: 1) discuss actions implemented in a family literacy program, with specific reference to create literacy resources to register, discuss material, events, texts, 2) actions and promote forms of interaction by the family in the school environment; 2develop bonding strategies between school and families; 3) point the impact of such experiences of family literacy. To achieve these objectives, we base the discussion on theoretical contributions of the New Literacy Studies (STREET, 1984; McLAREN, 1988; BARTON & HAMILTON, 1993; KLEIMAN, 1995, 2000), focusing on Family Literacy and Literacy Project issues. Regarding to the research paradigm, we consider the Applied Linguistics field of study and we take the qualitative model (ERICKSON, 1990; BORTONI-RICARDO, 2008), with ethnographic critical approach (MOITA LOPES, 1993; THOMAS, 1993; HEATH & STREET, 2008). We understand, through our analysis, that families have much to contribute to the reality of schools, and, having seen relevance and value, these collaborators participate and act in support of the actions and the student’s education, even in the midst of complex routine situations. Still, we have learned that dialogues and activities with the community are necessary, looking forward to having involvement, local knowledge and the construction of shared learning; following this path, the collaborative environment is produced and the collaboration is effective.

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The study aimed to understand how the methodology of hatching contributes to the sustainability of economic enterprises in solidarity. For analysis, we developed a study on the social economy and the incubation methodology, based on the program of teaching, research and extension - Technological Incubator of Popular Cooperatives and Entrepreneurship Solidarity (PITCPES), and as the survey of the Cooperative of Fruit of Abaetetuba - COFRUTA. We started from the exploratory-descriptive approach in a qualitative and quantitative, in order to demonstrate the process of sustainability under the dimensions of different kinds such as: the economic dimension, social dimension, the political dimension, size and scale management training. Based on the analysis of these different dimensions was reached results as: first the recognition that the incubator contributes to the sustainability of COFRUTA, especially with regard to planning, control and the need to diversify production. However, there was suggestion of cooperative for training and technical assistance is continued, to the extent that the performance of projects under the base leaves gaps for the learning and application of social technologies required to the Incubator. It also concluded that the dissertation contributes to the team of the incubator can assess their strengths and weaknesses in their performance

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The study aimed to understand how the methodology of hatching contributes to the sustainability of economic enterprises in solidarity. For analysis, we developed a study on the social economy and the incubation methodology, based on the program of teaching, research and extension - Technological Incubator of Popular Cooperatives and Entrepreneurship Solidarity (PITCPES), and as the survey of the Cooperative of Fruit of Abaetetuba - COFRUTA. We started from the exploratory-descriptive approach in a qualitative and quantitative, in order to demonstrate the process of sustainability under the dimensions of different kinds such as: the economic dimension, social dimension, the political dimension, size and scale management training. Based on the analysis of these different dimensions was reached results as: first the recognition that the incubator contributes to the sustainability of COFRUTA, especially with regard to planning, control and the need to diversify production. However, there was suggestion of cooperative for training and technical assistance is continued, to the extent that the performance of projects under the base leaves gaps for the learning and application of social technologies required to the Incubator. It also concluded that the dissertation contributes to the team of the incubator can assess their strengths and weaknesses in their performance

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As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande número de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em âmbito gerencial, financeiro, burocrático ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percepção das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exigências burocráticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no comércio exterior. Como exigências burocráticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho é entendido como os resultados da atividade econômica medido através do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados não atendidas e da ampliação do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter censitário, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no comércio exterior nos últimos três anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplicação de questionário, assim como uma consulta a dados secundários disponíveis. A análise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percepção dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exportação, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos órgãos públicos e a infraestrutura logística do estado exercem influência na pequena participação das MPEs nas exportações do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

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The democratic management is a challenge for education, on the one hand for its actualization needs a link between the government and the educational institution. From that, research aims to understand the main challenges faced by the school administration to consolidate the management of public schools in Natal/RN. Against this context the methodology used was multiple cases, qualitative approach in which respondent were manager (director, deputy director and coordinator) of the four municipal schools and two representatives of the Democratic Management Commission of a Government departament of Education, Natal/RN. The analysis was made by peers, between schools that had grade superior IDEB that average stipulated by the federal government and two that had grade lower and between managers and representatives of the Secretary. Were used techniques of categorization and content analysis of the speeches of respondents. Was note that managers understand the importance of the participation about whole community in the democratic management, however only one school highlighted means of attracting the parents against to the difficulty of representing these. The lack of knowledge about the democratic management is evident mainly in the pair of schools with lower IDEB. That schools with a lower IDEB adhere to this management as a way to meet rules. So unanimous, the broad role of director hampers knowledge about the legislation. About relationship of the Government department with managers, there are some contradictions between the understanding of the role of the coordinator by managers and representatives of the Government department. It was perceptible the no uniformity about a good relationship between managers and Government department. It was notable features of democratic management in all school units, well as the efforts of the Government department in this scope. However there are also undemocratic features that deserve further study

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In the first decades of 20th century the just instituted Brazilian Republic faced the challenge to modernize the country. Considering that the progress was associated with the exhaustion of the forest reserves and with climatic changes, two big issues were seen as fundamental: To Fight the Droughts and To Defend the Forests; headed by professionals who were dedicated to these ideals. This research starts from the premise that these were the main challenges enforced by nature to the Brazilian development; the general objective was delimited in the search to understand the meaning and the conception of the natural world by this group of professionals who faced the shock between modernizing the country and conserving its natural resources. Aiming to contribute with the construction of the Brazilian environmental history and to bring historical elements to the debate about the environment in the country, the author concentrates his attention to the analyses, the discussions and the actions that preceded the regulation on the use of natural resources and the implementation of the environmental legislation in Brazil, occurred in 1934. The investigation uses as methodological basis the theoretical directions of environmental history, using sources of data still little explored and valued. In such way, it is taken as starting point some published papers about this subject during the period between 1889 and 1934 in two technical magazines the Revista Brazil Ferro-Carril and the Revista do Club de Engenharia. National engineering played a basic role in this process while arguing, projecting and constructing the development. The formulated proposals, after being divulged, had fomented the interchange with other professionals and had favored the advance of ambient questions in Brazil, in the sense to preserve natural resources, to construct more harmonic relations between the society and the nature and to equate the development with the environment preservation

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The present research if inserts in the subject of the habitation of social interest and its relation with the sanitation infra-structure questions (sewer, water, draining and garbage). Having as study universe the narrow river of the Forty , situated one in the city of Manaus, capital of Amazon, approaches questions that if present between the necessities of housing and the especificidades of the natural environment, whose characteristics evidence limits for the implantation of adequate habitations. The objective is to analyze the possibilities and the limits of the urbanística regularization in the palafitas of the narrow rivers of Manaus, in view of the factors of habitability and ambient protection, expresses for the sanitation system - sanitary exhaustion, water supply, urban draining and garbage collection. The work approaches initially relative the conceptual aspects to the subject of social habitation in the country and its relation with the habitability factors, also focusing the question of the housing and the processes of urban informality in the city of Manaus. It deals with the process of constitution of the palafitas in the space of the city and its relation with the habitacionais politics, presenting the analysis of the implantation of the palafitas in relation to the sanitation infra-structure conditions (sewer, water, draining and garbage). As conclusion, it identifies to the possibilities and limits of urbanística regularization of the palafitas implanted to the long one of the narrow river of the Forty , taking in consideration the systems of the sanitation infrastructure

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Nowadays, the search for new technologies that are able to follow the upcoming challenges in oil industry is a constant. Always trying properties improvements of the used materials, looking for the best performance and greater life time. Besides the search for technologies that show an improvement of performance, the search for materials environmentally correct along the whole production process. In Oil well cementing, this search for new technologies passes through the development of slurry systems that support these requests and that are also environmentally friendly. In this context, the use of geopolymer slurries is a great alternative route to cementing oil wells. Besides having good properties, comparable to Portland cement slurries, this alternative material releases much less CO2 gas in the production of their root materials when compared the production of Portland cement, which releases tons of CO2. In order to improve the properties of geopolymer slurries has been added Calcium Oxide, as observed in other studies that slurries where the Calcium is present the values of compressive strength is greater. The addition has been realized based in the CaO/SiO2 molar ratio of 0.05, 0.10 and 0.15. Have been performed compressive strength tests, thickening time, rheology and fliud loss control test of the slurries, following NBR 9831, as well as the physical chemical characterization of XRD, SEM and TG. Has been observed in most of the tests the slurries follow a tendency until the ratio of 0.10, which inverses in the ratio 0.15. This behavior can be explained by two phenomena that occur simultaneously, the first one is the break of the polymer chains and a consequent increase in molucules mobility, which prevails until the ratio of 0.1, and the second is possible approach of the chains due to the capacity of the calcium ions stabilize the charges of two different aluminum. There is only one linearity in the mechanical behavior that can be attributed to the appereance of the C-S-H phase. Based on this, it is concluded that the phenomenon of breaking the polymer chains predominates until the ratio of 0.1, causing an increase of the filtrate volume, lower rheological parameters and increasing thickening time. From the ratio of 0.15 the approach of the chains predominates, and the behavior is reversed