Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.

STRESS: um diagnóstico dos policiais militares da cidade de Natal Brasil

Objectives: The purpose of the current study was to diagnose military police officers in Natal, Brazil as to the level and phase of stress in which they find themselves and the prevalent symptomatology (physical or mental). Methodology: Descriptive, crosscut study that investigated a sample of 264 individuals taken from a population of 3,193 military police officers of the Capital Police Command (CPC) in Natal, Brazil. The data were collected using the Lipp Stress Symptoms for Adults Inventory LSSI, and analyzed by tabulations, percentage calculations, t-test for proportions and Pearson s chi-squared test for associations between stress, symptomatology and military rank. Data collection was between June/2004 and January/2005. Results: It was found that 52.6% of the officers had symptoms of stress and 47.4% symptomatology of stress. This was distributed across all ranks, especially mid and upper-level officers as well as corporals and privates, with predominance in the resistance phase (36%) and a prevalence of psychological symptoms (76%). The only variable investigated that was related to stress was gender (P = 0.0337). Conclusions: It was concluded that there is stress among all ranks of military police officers in Natal, Brazil, especially mid and upper-level officers, corporals and privates, with a prevalence of psychological symptoms, low levels of physical symptoms and predominance in the resistance phase. It seems that stress levels do not differ significantly from those found in Brazilian men and women and do not indicate a situation of chronic fatigue

Candidíase vulvovaginal: sintomatologia, fatores de risco e colonização anal concomitante

Post-menarche patients with clinical signs of vulvovaginitis were analyzed in this study, whose aims were the following: identify the frequency of C. albicans and non C. albicans species and negative results, correlate the vaginal culture for yeast with risk factors and symptomatology; compare positive and negative results for yeast in the vaginal and anal cultures; compare the positive results for C. albicans with other results found in the vaginal and anal cultures; and compare concomitant positivity for C. albicans and non C. albicans in the vaginal and anal cultures. Sample selection occurred between May, 2003 and May, 2005, and included 99 patients from Natal, Brazil. The laboratory methods used consisted of CHROMagar Candida culture medium, thermotolerance test at 42-45°C and hypertonic NaCL, in addition to the classic methods of carbohydrate assimilation and fermentation. We used absolute numbers, percentages, means of central tendency, chi-squared test (χ2) with Yates correction, Fisher s exact test and odds ratio for statistical analysis. The most frequent species was C. albicans in 69% of the cases. The positivity for Candida spp showed an association with the use of tight-fitting intimate clothing and/or synthetics, allergic diseases and the occurrence of itching, leukorrhea and erythema. Anal colonization increased the likelihood of vaginal contamination by 2.8 and 4.9 times, respectively, for Candida spp and C. albicans. When compared to the other species, C. albicans-positive anal colonization increased by 3.7 times the likelihood of vaginal positivity. These data suggest likely vaginal contamination originating in the anus

Avaliação de lesões brancas de cáries: um estudo de prognóstico

Objective: The aim of the present study is to assess the current situation of white enamel lesions on vestibular surfaces of permanent upper incisors, diagnosed 6 years ago, without clinical intervention. Methods: A prospective study reassessed 53 students of both sexes, aged between 13 and 18 years old, all attending the public school system in Natal, Brazil. Data collection was performed by duly calibrated examiners, and a clinical chart consisting of demographic data on dental caries, oral hygiene, and gingival condition was prepared. A tactile-visual examination was conducted using a clinical mirror and periodontal probe. Data compilation and analysis were carried out using a SPSS software. In this analysis the chi-squared test was used for qualitative independent variables. To identify the net effect of treatment, multiple logistic analysis with forward stepwise model selection was performed. Results: The final sample was composed of 106 lesions in the 53 individuals, with mean age of 15.02 years, visible plaque index (VPI) of 23.34%, and gingival blood indices (GBI) of 25.92%. A statistically significant relationship (p = 0.003) was found between initial DMFS and prognosis of white enamel lesion. Conclusions: We observed that past caries experience and dental plaque were the main predictive factors for negative lesion outcomes, demonstrating the need for oral hygiene control through continuing preventive measures

Qualidade de vida, eficiência mastigatória e presença de disfunção temporomandibular em usuários de prótese parcial removível com arco dental curto inferior

Even nowadays there is in Brasil a large number of edentulous and a precarious financial condition of most of the population. In addition, World Health Organization aims for oral health, which consists on the maintenance of a natural dentition, functional and aesthetic composed of at least 20 teeth, without need of prosthetic intervention throughout life. From this and considering the lack of researches about the permanence of edentulous spaces in the oral cavity, and also avoiding overtreatment, this research has been proposed. Thus, the aim was to evaluate the effect of different lengths of the shortened lower dental arch in the presence or absence of a removable partial denture (RPD) on masticatory function, quality of life and occurrence of temporomandibular dysfunction. To achieve this goal, we compared the masticatory efficiency (colorimetric test), the oral comfort through the analysis of the impact of oral health in quality of life (OHIP-14), the presence of temporomandibular dysfunction (RDC/TMD) and the general quality of life (WHOQOL) of patients with shortened dental arches (SDA) (n=60), which is an arch with a reduction of teeth starting posteriorly, and patients with complete dental arch (Complete DA) (n = 34). The group of patients whit SDA was divided among PPR wears (PPD + SDA) (n = 17) and non-wears (n = 43). The population of this study consisted on patients who received or looked for treatment at the clinics of the Department of Dentistry of UFRN, from clinical analysis and records. The sample was chosen by convenience. For statistical analysis, it was a database in SPSS 17.0, followed by descriptive analysis with frequencies, absolute values, tests of central tendency and variability. The statistical tests used were chi-squared and analysis of variance as well as Tukey s post test, when applicable, all with a 95% confidence level. The results shown a prevalence of TMD of 47,1% among patients using PRP and 69,8% among those who didn t, but this result wasn t statistically significant. The mean of the results of masticatory efficiency, WHOQOL and OHIP didn t show association to the presence or absence of PPR and to the lower number of occlusal units of the patients (0, 1, 2 or more occlusal). The association only occurred among the different groups of SDA and the patients with complete dental arch. Taking into account the results, it could be observed that studied patients with low posterior support using lower PRP didn t have better masticatory efficiency, general quality of life, less impacts of their oral conditions in quality of life or not even less temporomandibular dysfunction or better masticatory efficiency when compared to those who didn t use the prosthesis

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.