Sistema inteligente para apoio à decisão na operação de uma malha de escoamento de petróleo

The petroleum production pipeline networks are inherently complex, usually decentralized systems. Strict operational constraints are applied in order to prevent serious problems like environmental disasters or production losses. This paper describes an intelligent system to support decisions in the operation of these networks, proposing a staggering for the pumps of transfer stations that compose them. The intelligent system is formed by blocks which interconnect to process the information and generate the suggestions to the operator. The main block of the system uses fuzzy logic to provide a control based on rules, which incorporate knowledge from experts. Tests performed in the simulation environment provided good results, indicating the applicability of the system in a real oil production environment. The use of the stagger proposed by the system allows a prioritization of the transfer in the network and a flow programming

Sistema inteligente para apoio à decisão na operação de uma malha de escoamento de petróleo

The petroleum production pipeline networks are inherently complex, usually decentralized systems. Strict operational constraints are applied in order to prevent serious problems like environmental disasters or production losses. This paper describes an intelligent system to support decisions in the operation of these networks, proposing a staggering for the pumps of transfer stations that compose them. The intelligent system is formed by blocks which interconnect to process the information and generate the suggestions to the operator. The main block of the system uses fuzzy logic to provide a control based on rules, which incorporate knowledge from experts. Tests performed in the simulation environment provided good results, indicating the applicability of the system in a real oil production environment. The use of the stagger proposed by the system allows a prioritization of the transfer in the network and a flow programming

Método Fuzzy para auxílio ao diagnóstico de câncer de mama em ambiente inteligente de telediagnóstico colaborativo para apoio à tomada de decisão

Breast cancer, despite being one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide is a disease that can be cured if diagnosed early. One of the main techniques used in the detection of breast cancer is the Fine Needle Aspirate FNA (aspiration puncture by thin needle) which, depending on the clinical case, requires the analysis of several medical specialists for the diagnosis development. However, such diagnosis and second opinions have been hampered by geographical dispersion of physicians and/or the difficulty in reconciling time to undertake work together. Within this reality, this PhD thesis uses computational intelligence in medical decision-making support for remote diagnosis. For that purpose, it presents a fuzzy method to assist the diagnosis of breast cancer, able to process and sort data extracted from breast tissue obtained by FNA. This method is integrated into a virtual environment for collaborative remote diagnosis, whose model was developed providing for the incorporation of prerequisite Modules for Pre Diagnosis to support medical decision. On the fuzzy Method Development, the process of knowledge acquisition was carried out by extraction and analysis of numerical data in gold standard data base and by interviews and discussions with medical experts. The method has been tested and validated with real cases and, according to the sensitivity and specificity achieved (correct diagnosis of tumors, malignant and benign respectively), the results obtained were satisfactory, considering the opinions of doctors and the quality standards for diagnosis of breast cancer and comparing them with other studies involving breast cancer diagnosis by FNA.

Sistemas computacionais espaço-temporais para toma de decisão em questões ambientais relacionadas à indústria de petróleo e gás

The area between São Bento do Norte and Macau cities, located in the northern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State is submitted to intense and constant processes of littoral and aeolian transport, causing erosion, alterations in the sediments balance and modifications in the shoreline. Beyond these natural factors, the human interference is huge in the surroundings, composed by sensitive places, due to the existence of the Guamaré Petroliferous Pole, RN, the greater terrestrial oil producing in Brazil, besides the activities of the salt companies and shrimp farms. This socioeconomic-environmental context justifies the elaboration of strategies of environmental monitoring of that coastal area. In the environmental monitoring of coastal strips, submitted to human impacts, the use of multi-sources and multitemporal data integrated through a Spatio- Temporal Database that allows the multiuser friendly access. The objective was to use the potential of the computational systems as important tools the managers of environmental monitoring. The stored data in the form of a virtual library aid in making decisions from the related results and presented in different formats. This procedure enlarges the use of the data in the preventive attendance, in the planning of future actions and in the definition of new lines of researches on the area, in a multiscale approach. Another activity of this Thesis consisted on the development of a computational system to automate the process to elaborate Oil-Spill Environmental Sensitivity Maps, based on the temporal variations that some coastal ecosystems present in the sensibility to the oil. The maps generated in this way, based on the methodology proposed by the Ministério do Meio Ambiente, supply more updated information about the behavior of the ecosystem, as a support to the operations in case of oil spill. Some parameters, such as the hydrodynamic data, the declivity of the beach face, types of resources in risk (environmental, economical, human or cultural) and use and occupation of the area are some of the essential basic information in the elaboration of the sensitivity maps, which suffer temporal alterations.In this way, the two computational systems developed are considered support systems to the decision, because they provide operational subsidies to the environmental monitoring of the coastal areas, considering the transformations in the behavior of coastal elements resulting from temporal changes related the human and/or natural interference of the environment

Sistema integrado para tomada de decisão espacial em situações de derramamento de óleo no litoral norte do Estado do RN

The northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte State (RN) shows areas of Potiguar basin with high activity in petroleum industry. With the goal of avoiding and reducing the accident risks with oil it is necessary to understand the natural vulnerability, mapping natural resources and monitoring the oil spill. The use of computational tools for environmental monitoring makes possible better analyses and decisions in political management of environmental preservation. This work shows a methodology for monitoring of environment impacts, with purpose of avoiding and preserving the sensible areas in oil contact. That methodology consists in developing and embedding an integrated computational system. Such system is composed by a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). The SDSS shows a computational infrastructure composed by Web System of Geo-Environmental and Geographic Information - SWIGG , the System of Environmental Sensibility Maps for Oil Spill AutoMSA , and the Basic System of Environmental Hydrodynamic ( SisBAHIA a System of Modeling and Numerical Simulating SMNS). In a scenario of oil spill occurred coastwise of Rio Grande do Norte State s northern coast, the integration of such systems will give support to decision agents for managing of environmental impacts. Such support is supplied through a system of supporting to spatial decisions

Análise de desempenho de vendas em telecomunicações utilizando técnicas de mineração de dados

Nowadays, telecommunications is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Organizations are always seeking to find new management practices within an ever increasing competitive environment where resources are getting scarce. In this scenario, data obtained from business and corporate processes have even greater importance, although this data is not yet adequately explored. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) appears then, as an option to allow the study of complex problems in different areas of management. This work proposes both a systematization of KDD activities using concepts from different methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, SEMMA and FAYYAD approaches and a study concerning the viability of multivariate regression analysis models to explain corporative telecommunications sales using performance indicators. Thus, statistical methods were outlined to analyze the effects of such indicators on the behavior of business productivity. According to business and standard statistical analysis, equations were defined and fit to their respective determination coefficients. Tests of hypotheses were also conducted on parameters with the purpose of validating the regression models. The results show that there is a relationship between these development indicators and the amount of sales

Arquitetura inteligente fuzzy para monitoramento de sinais vitais de pacientes: um estudo de caso em UTI

The area of the hospital automation has been the subject a lot of research, addressing relevant issues which can be automated, such as: management and control (electronic medical records, scheduling appointments, hospitalization, among others); communication (tracking patients, staff and materials), development of medical, hospital and laboratory equipment; monitoring (patients, staff and materials); and aid to medical diagnosis (according to each speciality). This thesis presents an architecture for a patient monitoring and alert systems. This architecture is based on intelligent systems techniques and is applied in hospital automation, specifically in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for the patient monitoring in hospital environment. The main goal of this architecture is to transform the multiparameter monitor data into useful information, through the knowledge of specialists and normal parameters of vital signs based on fuzzy logic that allows to extract information about the clinical condition of ICU patients and give a pre-diagnosis. Finally, alerts are dispatched to medical professionals in case any abnormality is found during monitoring. After the validation of the architecture, the fuzzy logic inferences were applied to the trainning and validation of an Artificial Neural Network for classification of the cases that were validated a priori with the fuzzy system

Sistema Especialista para Supressão Online de Alarmes em Processos Industriais

Operating industrial processes is becoming more complex each day, and one of the factors that contribute to this growth in complexity is the integration of new technologies and smart solutions employed in the industry, such as the decision support systems. In this regard, this dissertation aims to develop a decision support system based on an computational tool called expert system. The main goal is to turn operation more reliable and secure while maximizing the amount of relevant information to each situation by using an expert system based on rules designed for a particular area of expertise. For the modeling of such rules has been proposed a high-level environment, which allows the creation and manipulation of rules in an easier way through visual programming. Despite its wide range of possible applications, this dissertation focuses only in the context of real-time filtering of alarms during the operation, properly validated in a case study based on a real scenario occurred in an industrial plant of an oil and gas refinery

Modelo de decisão multicritério para seleções interciclo das universidades novas: estudo na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

The discussions wherein develop proposals for university reform in Brazil include, among other things, the conception of the university titled "New University", whose structural origin comes from the bill of higher education reform and unification of the foundations of education European upper (Bologna process). At its core, the Bologna process has imposed a series of transformations, among which, the promotion of mobility, as a stimulus to interinstitutional cooperation to enable an better and bigger qualification of the students. Nevertheless, what we see is that this point is one of the main points made flawed by Brazilian institutions that have adopted this model of higher education. An example is the Bachelor of Science and Technology - BC&T, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, where there are problems of the internal order, represented by the problem of the reusing of the disciplines, such also of external order, in cases of transfers interinstitutional. Because of this, and knowing that this is a typical problem in which multiple criteria are involved, the aim of this study is to propose a multicriteria model for selection of interciclo of the BC&T of the UFRN which addresses the issue of mobility. For this, this study was of exploratory and study case nature, use as tools of data collection, the bibliographic and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews. For the elaboration of the model, were used the five phases most commonly used in the modeling of problems in operational research in a sample of 91 students of BC&T. As a result, we obtained a model that addresses the issue of internal and external mobility of the school and that, moreover, was also more robust and fair than the current model of BC&T and also what is used in other courses of the UFRN, taking into consideration the expected results by the decision makers

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Fatores influenciadores da participação pública na tomada de decisão ambiental :o caso do programa de combate ao caramujo gigante (Achatina fulica) em Parnamirim/RN

The aim of this work is to investigate the factors which influence people s participation in the enviromental decision, in Parnamirim, Rio Grande do Norte, from the vision of the residents of that area, approaching the Plan of Control/Eradication of the African s Huge Snail (Achatina Fulica),with the jointly work of IBAMA and Municipal Town Hall of Parnamirim .The applied methodology consists of a research (Survey kind) including 395 interviews by people who live in that county, with minimum age of 18, within an universe of 124.690 residents. The choice of the county was due to a detection (made by IBAMA technicians and reported in a Technical Report) -which showed that the dangerous Snail is already spreading in 14 of 17 districts of the county-, as well as the support given by Parnamirim s Town Hall, with the implementation of the Plan Control/Eradication of the African s Huge Snail, widely known as Day C . The research tools used in that research consists of questionnaires with all sorts of questions. The results show us that most of the residents were feeling threatened by the presence of the animal as well as having had a little participation in the fight against the animal. It also shows us that residents believe that organizations (Town Hall, IBAMA and Local Community) involved are able to solve the problem and believe that the amounts which organization are supposed to take 89,4 %, 87,6% and 80,8%, in that order. As we check the results, we notice in 95%, the variety of threaten and frequency reunion and participation level

Modelo de decisão multicritério para seleções interciclo das universidades novas: estudo na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

The discussions wherein develop proposals for university reform in Brazil include, among other things, the conception of the university titled "New University", whose structural origin comes from the bill of higher education reform and unification of the foundations of education European upper (Bologna process). At its core, the Bologna process has imposed a series of transformations, among which, the promotion of mobility, as a stimulus to interinstitutional cooperation to enable an better and bigger qualification of the students. Nevertheless, what we see is that this point is one of the main points made flawed by Brazilian institutions that have adopted this model of higher education. An example is the Bachelor of Science and Technology - BC&T, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, where there are problems of the internal order, represented by the problem of the reusing of the disciplines, such also of external order, in cases of transfers interinstitutional. Because of this, and knowing that this is a typical problem in which multiple criteria are involved, the aim of this study is to propose a multicriteria model for selection of interciclo of the BC&T of the UFRN which addresses the issue of mobility. For this, this study was of exploratory and study case nature, use as tools of data collection, the bibliographic and documentary research, as well as semi-structured interviews. For the elaboration of the model, were used the five phases most commonly used in the modeling of problems in operational research in a sample of 91 students of BC&T. As a result, we obtained a model that addresses the issue of internal and external mobility of the school and that, moreover, was also more robust and fair than the current model of BC&T and also what is used in other courses of the UFRN, taking into consideration the expected results by the decision makers

Pesquisa: informação estratégica para tomada de decisão

Apresenta a pesquisa como fator importante para os gestores das organizações na tomada de decisão nesse novo cenário evolutivo e dinâmico da economia global no qual a informação é um produto relevante para as empresas. Abrange os tipos de pesquisas, quantitativas ou qualitativas, os métodos de coleta de dados. Considera as características para a realização de pesquisa para gerar resultados, produto final, relevantes aspectos para os patrocinadores das pesquisas. Resume as questões éticas aplicadas a pesquisa para que as partes participantes tenham assim assegurados os direitos de todos os envolvidos. Por outro lado, a busca na literatura apresenta a importância dos resultados de pesquisa como parte do processo administrativo das organizações, dentre elas as unidades de informação em especial. Observa a visão sobre a opinião pública e suas aplicações nas pesquisas diante da visão de alguns autores pertinentes. Enfoca a necessidade do bibliotecário de aprimorar suas competências na área da Gestão da Informação e do conhecimento em geral para saber tomar decisões estratégicas e relevantes na melhoria da qualidade de produtos/serviços em unidades de informação.

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source