Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Uma aplicação de análise de decisão com o método AHP Processo de hierarquia analítica: um estudo sobre adoção de Sistema eletrônico de cobrança no Transporte público urbano

This thesis carries through an application of Analysis of Multicriterion Decision with use of the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the problematic one of taking of decision of the adoption of electronic collecting in the system of urban transport in the country, a subject that has been controversial. A modeling of criteria and alternatives is carried through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP the excellent actors in the system of urban transport - Leading of the Managing Agency Public Municipal theatre of Urban Transports, Controller of Company of Bus, Controller of Labor union, Controller of Union of Companies, Communitarian Leader. The considered alternatives were: the maintenance of the current state with collectors, the implementation of electronic collection without collectors, and the implementation of electronic collection with collectors. The used criteria were: job, impact in the fare, control of the system, easiness of use, information. The study was carried through in the city of Natal, RN, where if the adoption of electronic collection argues and where this implementation in some bus lines between Natal and Parnamirim exists, city that integrates the region of the great Natal. The main results of the method evidence in a dimension, the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method, and in another one, the contribution of the analysis boarding multicriterion to become the judgments more clearly. The main results of the analysis help to show that although to models of criteria and distinct judgments of the actors, the method evidenced that it has inclination the adoption of the electronic collection on the current situation, even so with divergences between the maintenance or not of the collector. The research points to the possibility of accomplishment of the application of the AHP in successive rounds of judgments

Fatores de decisão da adoção do gás natural na geração de energia elétrica em pequena escala em postos de combustíveis: um estudo de anális de decusão usando o processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

A modeling of criterias and alternatives is through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP to proprietors of gas stations. The considered alternatives had been the maintenance of the current state with electric energy of the deliverer and the generation in small scale based on the natural gas. The used criteria had been Cost of the Investment, Final Cost of the Energy, Operational cost, Ambient Benefits, Risk and Variation of Costs. The study it was carried through in the city of Natal, RN in ranks that make use of the natural as for resale, where the generation alternative on the basis of the available gas is present. The main results evidence in a dimension the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method. The main results of the analysis help to show that in this in case that the profile of models of criteria and judgments of the actors is similar, with the final evidence of that it has a dominance of the maintenance of the energy of the deliverer. The main criterion to influence this decision was the risk

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Uma aplicação da apredizagem por reforço na otimização da produção em um campo de petróleo

The objective of reservoir engineering is to manage fields of oil production in order to maximize the production of hydrocarbons according to economic and physical restrictions. The deciding of a production strategy is a complex activity involving several variables in the process. Thus, a smart system, which assists in the optimization of the options for developing of the field, is very useful in day-to-day of reservoir engineers. This paper proposes the development of an intelligent system to aid decision making, regarding the optimization of strategies of production in oil fields. The intelligence of this system will be implemented through the use of the technique of reinforcement learning, which is presented as a powerful tool in problems of multi-stage decision. The proposed system will allow the specialist to obtain, in time, a great alternative (or near-optimal) for the development of an oil field known

Estudo de Fractalidade e Evolução Dinâmica de Sistemas Complexos

In this work, the study of some complex systems is done with use of two distinct procedures. In the first part, we have studied the usage of Wavelet transform on analysis and characterization of (multi)fractal time series. We have test the reliability of Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method (WTMM) in respect to the multifractal formalism, trough the calculation of the singularity spectrum of time series whose fractality is well known a priori. Next, we have use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method to study the fractality of lungs crackles sounds, a biological time series. Since the crackles sounds are due to the opening of a pulmonary airway bronchi, bronchioles and alveoli which was initially closed, we can get information on the phenomenon of the airway opening cascade of the whole lung. Once this phenomenon is associated with the pulmonar tree architecture, which displays fractal geometry, the analysis and fractal characterization of this noise may provide us with important parameters for comparison between healthy lungs and those affected by disorders that affect the geometry of the tree lung, such as the obstructive and parenchymal degenerative diseases, which occurs, for example, in pulmonary emphysema. In the second part, we study a site percolation model for square lattices, where the percolating cluster grows governed by a control rule, corresponding to a method of automatic search. In this model of percolation, which have characteristics of self-organized criticality, the method does not use the automated search on Leaths algorithm. It uses the following control rule: pt+1 = pt + k(Rc − Rt), where p is the probability of percolation, k is a kinetic parameter where 0 < k < 1 and R is the fraction of percolating finite square lattices with side L, LxL. This rule provides a time series corresponding to the dynamical evolution of the system, in particular the likelihood of percolation p. We proceed an analysis of scaling of the signal obtained in this way. The model used here enables the study of the automatic search method used for site percolation in square lattices, evaluating the dynamics of their parameters when the system goes to the critical point. It shows that the scaling of , the time elapsed until the system reaches the critical point, and tcor, the time required for the system loses its correlations, are both inversely proportional to k, the kinetic parameter of the control rule. We verify yet that the system has two different time scales after: one in which the system shows noise of type 1 f , indicating to be strongly correlated. Another in which it shows white noise, indicating that the correlation is lost. For large intervals of time the dynamics of the system shows ergodicity

Uma aplicação da apredizagem por reforço na otimização da produção em um campo de petróleo

The objective of reservoir engineering is to manage fields of oil production in order to maximize the production of hydrocarbons according to economic and physical restrictions. The deciding of a production strategy is a complex activity involving several variables in the process. Thus, a smart system, which assists in the optimization of the options for developing of the field, is very useful in day-to-day of reservoir engineers. This paper proposes the development of an intelligent system to aid decision making, regarding the optimization of strategies of production in oil fields. The intelligence of this system will be implemented through the use of the technique of reinforcement learning, which is presented as a powerful tool in problems of multi-stage decision. The proposed system will allow the specialist to obtain, in time, a great alternative (or near-optimal) for the development of an oil field known

Fatores determinantes da decisão sobre a prática da cesariana em Natal-RN

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar os fatores que contribuíram para as diferentes decisões para o parto cesáreo e a ligadura de trompas entre as mulheres de 18 a 45 anos de idade no Município de Natal, no Nordeste do Brasil, no ano de 2000. Tratou-se de um estudo longitudinal, originado da base de dados de um Estudo Multicêntrico, envolvendo outras localidades do Brasil, composta de mulheres em idade fértil que procuraram o serviço público ou privado. Foram realizadas três entrevistas: no início da gestação, no mês anterior à data provável do parto e até um mês após o parto, perfazendo um total de 433 entrevistas, sendo finalizada com uma amostra de 269 mulheres. O estudo satisfez a um critério de elegibilidade, abrangendo uma amostra das mulheres de 18 a 40 anos de idade, que residiam em Natal e que estavam grávidas no máximo, na 22a semana de gestação, e procuraram o serviço público ou privado para a realização do pré-natal. Não entraram no estudo, aquelas mulheres que faziam um acompanhamento em ambulatórios especiais (hipertensão ou diabetes gestacional, HIV/AIDS). A análise consistiu, primeiramente, num estudo descritivo, seguido de uma discussão sobre a trajetória do desejo à realização do parto e testou-se a significância estatística dos partos com variáveis socioeconômicas. Sequencialmente adotou-se uma análise bivariada centrada nos testes de associação, onde foi considerada a variável tipo de parto como sendo a variável resposta e as demais variáveis, relacionadas à condição sóciodemográfica e a saúde reprodutiva da mulher, como sendo as variáveis de risco ou independentes. Para o cálculo da razão de chance (OR), foi utilizado o modelo de regressão logística múltipla. Das 269 mulheres entrevistadas, 56,0% foram submetidas ao parto normal. Este tipo de parto foi desejado independente da categoria, por 71% das entrevistadas. Os resultados mostraram como fatores determinantes para cesárea, o serviço ser privado (OR = 5,6), a mulher ter idade acima de 20 anos (OR=2,87), ser primípara (OR=4,56) e a realização de ligadura de trompas (OR=12,94). Independente da parturição, 84% das mulheres do serviço público foram submetidas a um parto normal, enquanto que, 74% das primíparas do serviço privado, fizeram uma cesárea. Os resultados sinalizam um distanciamento efetivo entre o desejo por um tipo de parto e a sua realização, quando os fatores considerados, não foram somente técnicos, podendo, também, refletir a falta de prática do parto normal, pelo obstetra e a necessidade de uma maior consciência ética nos procedimentos obstétricos, de modo a favorecer uma maior abertura na participação da gestante na escolha pelo tipo de parto

Aplicação do método de análise hierárquica na tomada de decisão para adoção de computação em nuvem: um estudo de caso na federação das indústrias do RN

The progresses of the Internet and telecommunications have been changing the concepts of Information Technology IT, especially with regard to outsourcing services, where organizations seek cost-cutting and a better focus on the business. Along with the development of that outsourcing, a new model named Cloud Computing (CC) evolved. It proposes to migrate to the Internet both data processing and information storing. Among the key points of Cloud Computing are included cost-cutting, benefits, risks and the IT paradigms changes. Nonetheless, the adoption of that model brings forth some difficulties to decision-making, by IT managers, mainly with regard to which solutions may go to the cloud, and which service providers are more appropriate to the Organization s reality. The research has as its overall aim to apply the AHP Method (Analytic Hierarchic Process) to decision-making in Cloud Computing. There to, the utilized methodology was the exploratory kind and a study of case applied to a nationwide organization (Federation of Industries of RN). The data collection was performed through two structured questionnaires answered electronically by IT technicians, and the company s Board of Directors. The analysis of the data was carried out in a qualitative and comparative way, and we utilized the software to AHP method called Web-Hipre. The results we obtained found the importance of applying the AHP method in decision-making towards the adoption of Cloud Computing, mainly because on the occasion the research was carried out the studied company already showed interest and necessity in adopting CC, considering the internal problems with infrastructure and availability of information that the company faces nowadays. The organization sought to adopt CC, however, it had doubt regarding the cloud model and which service provider would better meet their real necessities. The application of the AHP, then, worked as a guiding tool to the choice of the best alternative, which points out the Hybrid Cloud as the ideal choice to start off in Cloud Computing. Considering the following aspects: the layer of Infrastructure as a Service IaaS (Processing and Storage) must stay partly on the Public Cloud and partly in the Private Cloud; the layer of Platform as a Service PaaS (Software Developing and Testing) had preference for the Private Cloud, and the layer of Software as a Service - SaaS (Emails/Applications) divided into emails to the Public Cloud and applications to the Private Cloud. The research also identified the important factors to hiring a Cloud Computing provider

Terceirização em tecnologia da informação sob os aspectos de estratégia, tomada de decisão e análise de investimentos :estudo de múltiplos casos em três organizações franqueadas da Coca-Cola do Brasil

Desde a criação da tecnologia e do seu uso pelas empresas, a relação custo e benefício nem sempre foi bem elucidada tanto para os responsáveis pela área de tecnologia quanto para a alta direção. Mas, apesar disto, cada vez mais as organizações investem maciçamente em tecnologia, esperando que esta seja a solução para diversos problemas. Por isto, esta questão tem se tornado crucial para o processo de tomada de decisões, visto que investimentos nesta área costumam ser dispendiosos e, na atual conjuntura, estas análises precisam ser extremamente criteriosas para que se miniminizem as possibilidades de insucesso dos projetos, principalmente numa economia estabilizada e de concorrência acirrada. Uma das alternativas que as empresas têm buscado para atingir o sucesso e correr menos riscos é a terceirização da área de TI. Partindo desta visão, a presente dissertação tem por objetivo realizar uma investigação sobre a terceirização dos serviços de TI em todos os seus aspectos, isto é, desde a sua motivação, serviços efetivamente terceirizados, vantagens, desvantagens e possíveis obstáculos, a visão do alinhamento estratégico da TI, os processos de gestão de contratos e formas de controle e, por fim, tendências futuras. Trata-se de uma pesquisa de múltiplos casos, envolvendo franquias do Sistema Coca-Cola no Brasil. O estudo apresenta uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o processo de tomada de decisão empresarial, a análise de investimentos, a gestão e a terceirização da TI, o que permitem definir as dimensões de análise da pesquisa. Na pesquisa de campo foram entrevistados os gerentes da área de TI, nas cidades de Brasília-DF, Goiânia-GO e Ribeirão Preto-SP. A pesquisa de campo permitiu identificar como as mesmas avaliam seus investimentos em TI, como esta área é gerenciada, o que as levou a optar pela terceirização e como os processos terceirizados afetam a organização. Por se tratar de uma pesquisa qualitativa, optou-se por analisar comparativamente as três organizações. Com a realização deste estudo, obtiveram-se, como principais resultados, que as organizações estão utilizando a terceirização em TI para focar no negócio principal e, mesmo encontrando diversas desvantagens, inclusive com relação a custos, acreditam que os benefícios justificam. Ainda identificaram-se alguns obstáculos internos para a terceirização, principalmente quanto ao receio de se perder a inteligência do negócio. O acompanhamento dessas atividades terceirizadas é realizado pela equipe interna e por critérios estruturados, onde se verificam os níveis de serviço

Análise e desenvolvimento de controladores preditivos multivariáveis baseados em multi-modelos bilineares

This work addresses issues related to analysis and development of multivariable predictive controllers based on bilinear multi-models. Linear Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) monovariable and multivariable is shown, and highlighted its properties, key features and applications in industry. Bilinear GPC, the basis for the development of this thesis, is presented by the time-step quasilinearization approach. Some results are presented using this controller in order to show its best performance when compared to linear GPC, since the bilinear models represent better the dynamics of certain processes. Time-step quasilinearization, due to the fact that it is an approximation, causes a prediction error, which limits the performance of this controller when prediction horizon increases. Due to its prediction error, Bilinear GPC with iterative compensation is shown in order to minimize this error, seeking a better performance than the classic Bilinear GPC. Results of iterative compensation algorithm are shown. The use of multi-model is discussed in this thesis, in order to correct the deficiency of controllers based on single model, when they are applied in cases with large operation ranges. Methods of measuring the distance between models, also called metrics, are the main contribution of this thesis. Several application results in simulated distillation columns, which are close enough to actual behaviour of them, are made, and the results have shown satisfactory

Aplicação de sistemas multi-classificadores no diagnóstico de falhas em motores de indução trifásicos

Equipment maintenance is the major cost factor in industrial plants, it is very important the development of fault predict techniques. Three-phase induction motors are key electrical equipments used in industrial applications mainly because presents low cost and large robustness, however, it isn t protected from other fault types such as shorted winding and broken bars. Several acquisition ways, processing and signal analysis are applied to improve its diagnosis. More efficient techniques use current sensors and its signature analysis. In this dissertation, starting of these sensors, it is to make signal analysis through Park s vector that provides a good visualization capability. Faults data acquisition is an arduous task; in this way, it is developed a methodology for data base construction. Park s transformer is applied into stationary reference for machine modeling of the machine s differential equations solution. Faults detection needs a detailed analysis of variables and its influences that becomes the diagnosis more complex. The tasks of pattern recognition allow that systems are automatically generated, based in patterns and data concepts, in the majority cases undetectable for specialists, helping decision tasks. Classifiers algorithms with diverse learning paradigms: k-Neighborhood, Neural Networks, Decision Trees and Naïves Bayes are used to patterns recognition of machines faults. Multi-classifier systems are used to improve classification errors. It inspected the algorithms homogeneous: Bagging and Boosting and heterogeneous: Vote, Stacking and Stacking C. Results present the effectiveness of constructed model to faults modeling, such as the possibility of using multi-classifiers algorithm on faults classification

Avaliação econômica dos incentivos fiscais e financeiros: uma análise das empresas industriais têxteis localizadas no Rio Grande do Norte, no período de 1999 a 2003

This study has as main objective to verify the effect of the tax and financial incentives granted by the brazilian states, specially in the reduction of ICMS on the investment decision of the entities, which in the last years led to the companies to decide new projects in based on the region that presented the better infrastructure beyond lesser tributary expense. For in such was made an economic valuation of the companies with focus in the beneficiary s optics using an adaptation of the Discounted Cash Flow method to measure the impact of the tax incentives in the value of the companies, this study selected the textile industry segment located in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The results indicated that such incentives created addition in the value of the companies, however the inexistence of incentives would not be enough to a negative decision of investment in the Rio Grande do Norte. The smallest difference between the value with and without incentive observed was 8.9%, and the biggest 31.7%, and the average of value aggregation with the tax incentives represented 18.9%

Sistemas orbitais e aéreos aplicados à análise multi-escala da tectônica rúptil atuante na borda sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba

The tectonics activity on the southern border of Parnaíba Basin resulted in a wide range of brittle structures that affect siliciclastic sedimentary rocks. This tectonic activity and related faults, joints, and folds are poorly known. The main aims of this study were (1) to identify lineaments using several remotesensing systems, (2) to check how the interpretation based on these systems at several scales influence the identification of lineaments, and (3) to contribute to the knowledge of brittle tectonics in the southern border of the Parnaíba Basin. The integration of orbital and aerial systems allowed a multi-scale identification, classification, and quantification of lineaments. Maps of lineaments were elaborated in the following scales: 1:200,000 (SRTM Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission), 1:50,000 (Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite), 1:10,000 (aerial photographs) and 1:5,000 (Quickbird satellite). The classification of the features with structural significance allowed the determination of four structural sets: NW, NS, NE, and EW. They were usually identified in all remote-sensing systems. The NE-trending set was not easily identified in aerial photographs but was better visualized on images of medium-resolution systems (SRTM and Landsat 7 ETM+). The same behavior characterizes the NW-trending. The NS-and EW-trending sets were better identified on images from high-resolution systems (aerial photographs and Quickbird). The structural meaning of the lineaments was established after field work. The NEtrending set is associated with normal and strike-slip faults, including deformation bands. These are the oldest structures identified in the region and are related to the reactivation of Precambrian basement structures from the Transbrazilian Lineament. The NW-trending set represents strike-slip and subordinated normal faults. The high dispersion of this set suggests a more recent origin than the previous structures. The NW-trending set may be related to the Picos-Santa Inês Lineament. The NS-and EW-trending sets correspond to large joints (100 m 5 km long). The truncation relationships between these joint sets indicate that the EW-is older than the NS-trending set. The methodology developed by the present work is an excellent tool for the understanding of the regional and local tectonic structures in the Parnaíba basin. It helps the choice of the best remote-sensing system to identify brittle features in a poorly known sedimentary basin

Uso do índice de pobreza hídrica (WPI) através da análise de componentes principais

To contribute in the performance of policies and strategies formulated by development agencies, indexes have been created in anticipation of expressing the multiple dimensions of water resources in an easily interpretable form. Use of Hydro Poverty Index ( WPI) is spreading worldwide , with the same formed by the combination of sub - indices Resource, access, capacity , use and environment. S ome critics a s to its formation have emerged, a mong them stands out the allo cation of weights of sub - indexes , made by an arbitrary process attributing subjectivity to the selection criteria. By involving statistical analysis, when considering the characteristics of the variables generated by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), it turns out that it is able to solve this problem. The objective of this study is to compare the results of the original WPI with content generated by Principal Com ponent Analysis (PCA) for the indicati on of the weights of sub - indec es applicable in the Seridó River hydrographic Basin . We conclude that the use of Principal Component Analysis in the allocation of weights of Water Poverty Index has identified the sub - indices Resources, Access and Environment are the most representative for the river basin Seridó , and that this new index, WPI' , presented the most comprehensive ranges of values , allowing more easily identify disparities among municipalities. In addition, t he evaluation of the sub - indec es in the study area has great potential to inform the decision - maker in the management of water resources, the most critical locations and deserve greater investments in the aspects analyzed, as the index itself can not cap ture this information.