7 resultados para Análise bayesiana

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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Gasteroids fungi are characterized by the basidiospores maturation inside the basidioma, from which spores liberation occurs in a passive manner. These fungi were once seen as a well definite class of Basidiomycota, but nowadays they are considered an artificial assemblage, because the organisms have independent evolutionary histories forming a polyphyletic group with a vast morphological variety. Despite their diversity, studies with this group in the tropics are incipient, and the phylogenetic relationships of the species from temperate climate remain unknown. Thus, this work aimed to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of gasteroids fungi from the Geastrales and Phallales orders, with the inclusion of tropical and temperate species, and with these analyses suggest a systematic position of species like Aseroë floriformis and Phallus roseus, as well as to verify if the lignicolous habit can indicate parental relationship in the Geastrum genus. For this, basidiomata were collected at Atlantic rain forest areas, during the rainy season, and the specimen identification followed specific literature for gasteroid fungi. The phylogenetic analyses were performed with Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analysis, making use of RPB2 and 28S nuclear genes and atp6 mitochondrial gene. It could be observed on the Phallales dendogram, that Aseroë floriformis did not cluster with A. rubra, and that it has an anterior divergence from all others species of the family Clathraceae used in this analysis, assuming a basal position in the clade. Phallus roseus, which once was recognized as Itajahya, has previous divergence from the group formed by Phallus species. At the Geastrales dendogram, in the group corresponding to Geastrum genus, it could be observed that species with lignicolous habitat clustered in a clade with high support values. So, the results suggest the creation of a new genus to accommodate A. floriformis, and the revalidation of Itajahya, as well as it can be affirmed that the lignicolous habitat on the Geastrum genus in fact indicates parental relationships, and that it has arised only once at the evolutionary history of the genus

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Cattleya granulosa Lind is a large and endemic orchid in Atlantic Forest fragments in Northeast Brazil. The facility of collecting, uniqueness of their flowers, which have varying colors between green and reddish brown, and distribution in coastal areas of economic interest make their populations a constant target of predation, which also suffer from environmental degradation. Due to the impact on their populations, the species is threatened. In this study, we evaluate the levels of spatial aggregation in a preserved population, analyze the phylogenetic relationships of C. granulosa Lindl. with four other Laeliinae species (Brassavola tuberculata, C. bicolor, C. labiata and C. schofieldiana) and also to evaluate the genetic diversity of 12 remaining populations of C. granulosa Lindl. through ISSR. There was specificity of epiphytic C. granula Lindl. with a single host tree, species of Eugenia sp. C. granulosa Lindl. own spatial pattern, with the highest density of neighbors within up to 5 m. Regarding the phylogenetic relationships and genetic patterns with other species of the genus, C. bicolor exhibited the greatest genetic diversity (HE = 0.219), while C. labiata exhibited the lowest level (HE = 0.132). The percentage of genetic variation among species (AMOVA) was 23.26%. The principal component analysis (PCA) of ISSR data showed that unifoliate and bifoliolate species are genetically divergent. PCA indicated a close relationship between C. granulosa Lindl. and C. schofieldiana, a species considered to be a variety of C. granulosa Lindl. by many researchers. Population genetic analysis using ISSR showed all polymorphic loci. The high genetic differentiation between populations (ФST = 0.391, P < 0.0001) determined the structure into nine groups according to log-likelihood of Bayesian analysis, with a similar pattern in the dendrogram (UPGMA) and PCA. A positive and significant correlation between geographic and genetic distances between populations was identified (r = 0.794, P = 0.017), indicating isolation by distance. Patterns of allelic diversity suggest the occurrence of population bottlenecks in most populations of C. granulosa Lindl. (n = 8). Genetic data indicate that enable the maintenance of genetic diversity of the species is complex and is directly related to the conservation of different units or groups that are spatially distant.

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The plant metabolism consists of a complex network of physical and chemical events resulting in photosynthesis, respiration, synthesis and degradation of organic compounds. This is only possible due to the different kinds of responses to many environmental variations that a plant could be subject through evolution, leading also to conquering new surroundings. The glyoxylate cycle is a metabolic pathway found in glyoxysomes plant, which has unique role in the seedling establishment. Considered as a variation of the citric acid cycle, it uses an acetyl coenzyme A molecule, derived from lipids beta-oxidation to synthesize compounds which are used in carbohydrate synthesis. The Malate synthase (MLS) and Isocitrate lyase (ICL) enzyme of this cycle are unique and essential in regulating the biosynthesis of carbohydrates. Because of the absence of decarboxylation steps as rate-limiting steps, detailed studies of molecular phylogeny and evolution of these proteins enables the elucidation of the effects of this route presence in the evolutionary processes involved in their distribution across the genome from different plant species. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a relationship between the molecular evolution of the characteristics of enzymes from the glyoxylate cycle (isocitrate lyase and malate synthase) and their molecular phylogeny, among green plants (Viridiplantae). For this, amino acid and nucleotide sequences were used, from online repositories as UniProt and Genbank. Sequences were aligned and then subjected to an analysis of the best-fit substitution models. The phylogeny was rebuilt by distance methods (neighbor-joining) and discrete methods (maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis). The identification of structural patterns in the evolution of the enzymes was made through homology modeling and structure prediction from protein sequences. Based on comparative analyzes of in silico models and from the results of phylogenetic inferences, both enzymes show significant structure conservation and their topologies in agreement with two processes of selection and specialization of the genes. Thus, confirming the relevance of new studies to elucidate the plant metabolism from an evolutionary perspective

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With the development and improvement of techniques for molecular studies and their subsequent application to the systematic, significant changes occurred in the classification of gasteroid fungi. The genus Morganella belongs to the family Lycoperdaceae, and is characterized mainly by lignicolous habit and presence of paracapilicium. Recent data demonstrate the discovery of new species for the group and the existence of a wide variety of species occurring in tropical ecosystems. However, the phylogenetic relationships of the genus, as well as the taxonomic classification, still require revisions to be better understood, the literature studies that address this issue are still very scarce. Thus, the objective of this study was to conduct studies of molecular phylogeny with species of the genus Morganella, to enhance understanding of the phylogeny of the group by including tropical species data. For this, the specimens used both for DNA extractions as for morphological review were obtained from Brazilian and foreign herbaria. For morphological analysis were observed characters relevant to the group's taxonomy. For phylogenetic analysis the Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analyzes were used, using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA. In phylogenetic analyzes, representatives from Morganella form a monophyletic clade with good support value and based on these results the genus should not be included as subgenus of Lycoperdon. The analysis indicated that M. pyriformis was not grouped with other representatives of Morganella, and therefore should not be included in the group as representative of Apioperdon subgenus because it is a Lycoperdon representative. Moreover, M. fuliginea, M. nuda, M. albostipitata, M. velutina, M. subincarnata are grouped with high support values within the genus Morganella. Morganella arenicola based on morphological and molecular studies does not aggregate in Morganella. Morganella nuda was grouped with M. fuliginea giving indications that can be treated as an intraspecific variation. The results of the analyzes favor to a better understanding of the species of Morganella. However, additional studies using a greater number of species, as well as other molecular markers are needed for a better understanding of the phylogenetic of Morganella.

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The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

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In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

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This dissertation considered the development of two papers, both related to mortality in Brazil. In the first article, "The context of mortality according to the three broad groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals, 2000 and 2010", the objective was to analyze the mortality rate according to the three major groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals. In the second article, "Typology and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil, 2000 and 2010", it was built up a typology for the Northeastern municipalities taking into account information on mortality from external causes and a set of indicators related to socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure aspects of such municipalities, both articles for the years 2000 and 2010. Thus, we used data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Furthermore, it was used information from the Demographic Census for those years. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. Was used in Article 1 the pro-rata distribution method to accomplish the redistribution of ill-defined causes. Moreover, made use of the technique of cluster analysis with the aim of grouping the capital that had proportions of deaths from ill-defined causes similar to each other. Already in Section 2, we used the technique of Empirical Bayesian estimation; spatial statistics technique; and finally, the Grade of Membership method to find types of municipalities from information on mortality from external causes associated with socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure variables. As the main results, it stands out in Article 1, in relation to data quality, we observed the formation of four groups of similar capital between themselves, as the proportion of illdefined causes. Regarding the behavior of mortality, according to the three major groups of causes of death, it was noted both for 2000 and for 2010 the prevalence of deaths from noncommunicable diseases for both sexes, although the reduction was identified rates in some of the capitals. Communicable diseases stood out as the second cause of death among women. Also, we found that deaths due to external causes are responsible for the second cause of death among men, as well as presenting an increase among women. As for the Article 2, stands out, in general, not just an extension of mortality from external causes in the municipalities, as well as an enlargement of the configurator stain existence of external cause deaths for the whole area of Northeast. Regarding the typology of municipalities, three vi extreme profiles were buit: the profile 1, which comprises municipalities with high rates of mortality from external causes and the best social indicators; the profile 2, that was composed of municipalities that are characterized by having low mortality rates from external causes and the lowest social indicators; and the profile 3, that brings together municipalities with intermediate mortality rates and median values considered in relation to social indicators. Although we have not seen changes in the characteristics of the profiles, we observed an increase in the proportion of municipalities that belong to the extreme profile 3, taking into account the mixed profiles.