Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

A gestão educacional das secretarias municipais de educação de municípios maranhenses a partir do plano de ações articuladas 2007-2011

The main purpose of this thesis was to analyze educational management of Municipal Departments of Education (SEMED’s) of cities in Maranhão inserted in the Plan of Articulated Actions (2007- 2011). We evidence the role of Union in that public policy. The leading argument is that Brazilian federal government is not demos constraining in relation to its national sub-governments, what makes the central government to enforce, primarily, educational politics like PAR. This kind of politics interferes in the educational management by national sub-governments, turning them into mere executors. By turning them into mere executors, PAR limits their autonomy and over imposes the results-based management as a parameter to improve the education quality. In order to develop the hypothesis, we adopted Political Science as theoretical basis, represented by Federalism Theory as pact which premise is the cooperative pattern of federalism as being the best form of government because it allows a joint decision-making process from the idea of no centralization of power. The methodology was historical materialism, which assumes the totality and contradiction as a form to understand the phenomenon that does not express in direct way its existence, but can be analyzed from such categories that made possible to interpret the reality. So, we used as tools the semistructured interview and documental analyses with triangulation of data. The empirical basis of the research is 04 (four) cities in Maranhão that obey the following criteria: 1. The municipality has to be assigned on the FNDE Resolution nº 29/2007; 2. To present the lowest educational management indexes from the diagnosis made in loco by PAR; 3. To present the lowest financial management indexes based on the diagnosis in loco by PAR. The results suggest that PAR does not effect a resultbased management which are proposed in its legal rules neither the SEMEDs can propose their conception of educational management. That situation creates a hybridism that sometimes turns to managerialism and performativity, sometimes to bureaucracy, sometimes to a total uncoordinated and unarticulated action. In relation to SEMEDs management, this thesis shows that these institutions have no own conception about educational management and end up acting in an uncoordinated and unarticulated way. The thesis concludes that PAR is an over imposition by federal government towards national sub-governments that conflicts with management patterns of those institutions that are used to a less managerial logic. This over imposition makes the Central government to be the center of Brazilian federalism, which is in reality an incomplete pact.