Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Prevalência da síndrome metabólica e seus componentes nos estágios pubertários de escolares do sexo feminino norte-rio-grandenses

The diagnosis of nutritional status is extremely re levant in clinical practice and population assessment, due to the association betwe en body fat and metabolic alterations. The aim of this study is to analyze th e prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and its components in the pubertal stages of f emale students in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil, in accordance with Internation al Diabetes Federation criteria. This is a cross-sectional study with 449 students aged betw een 8 and 19 years, stratified into pubertal stages systematized by Marshal and Tanner (1969), as follows: 27.6% prepubertal, 44.3% pubertal and 28.1% postpubertal, with mean ages of 9.4±1.27, 12.4±2.23 and 15.1±1.88 years, respectively. Preval ences were analyzed using distribution of frequencies and their respective 95 % confidence intervals, while the chi- square test and odds ratio were applied to analyze the associations between variables. The general prevalence of MS was 3.3% (CI: 2% - 5%) , without occurrences in the prepubertal stage, observing that it emerges from t he pubertal stage onwards with a prevalence of 2.5% (CI 95% 0.1% - 5%), 1% (CI 95% 0.4% - 2.3%) of cases with overweight and 1.5% (CI 95% -0.1% - 3.2%) with obes e individuals, while in the postpubertal stage the prevalence is 7.9% (CI 95% 3 .2% - 12.6%), 0.8% (CI 95% -0.8% - 2.3%) normal weight cases, 4% (CI 95% 0.6% - 7.4% ) overweight and 3.1% (CI 0.1% - 6.2%) obese individuals. There was an association (p<0.02) between pubertal stages and MS ( x 2 =5.2), with an OR of 3.3 (CI: 1.2 - 5), showing tha t postpubertal adolescents are more prone to SM than pubertals, while the OR i n obese individuals was 2.1 (CI: 2– 2.2) compared to the overweight. Body mass index (B MI) ( x 2 = 29.4; p<0.001) and age range ( x 2 = 13.1; p<0.001) showed a significant linear assoc iation with MS. Of the adolescents with MS, those aged ten years or younge r exhibited higher %G. The most prevalent components in all the stages were altered waist circumference (27.2% [CI 23% - 31%]) and low HDL cholesterol (39.6% [CI 35% – 44%]), which, coupled with hypertension, displayed significant differences in the postpubertal stage in relation to the other stages. The results show that MS emerges from the pubertal stage onwards in proportion to excess childhood body fat, a fact tha t calls for prevention strategies using an educational approach, reducing the large demand on the National Health System. Keywords: Metabolic syndrome, pubertal stages, risk factors.

Normalização de eletromiografia de superfície dos músculos respiratórios em sujeitos saudáveis: contração voluntária máxima máxima isométrica versus pressões respiratórias máximas

Aim : To evaluate and to standardize surface electromyography (sEMG) normalization procedures for respiratory muscles by comparing muscle activation during Maximal Voluntary Isometric Contraction (MVIC) and Maximal Respiratory Pressures (MIP, MEP and sniff test). Methods: Healthy subjects were evalua ted regarding demographics, spirometry and sEMG during the five maneuvers: sniff test, MIP , MEP and Maximal Voluntary Isometric C ontraction (MVIC) of RA, SCM and SC A . For electrode placement, skin was prepared with abrasion, followed by shaving in the foll owing regions for acquisition of el ectromyographic signals: (1) SC M: lower third of the distance between the mastoid process and t he sternoclavicular joint; (2) SC A : 5 cm to the right from the sternoclavicular joint and at this point, up to 2 cm; and (3 ) RA: the level of umbilicus, 4 cm to the right. In electromyographic variables analysis , the data normality was assessed by Shapiro - Wilk test. Comparisons among studied maneuvers were performed by Friedman Test and Dunn’s post - hoc for multiple comparisons a mong inspiratory maneuvers, and Mann Whitney test for expiratory maneuvers. Subgroups differences between genders were performed by Student's t test or Mann - Whitney test according to data normality. Results: 35 subjects participated in the study, b ut 5 we re excluded (BMI> 25 kg/ m²). Sample consisted of 30 subjects (1 5 women), mean age 27.3±7.43 years, BMI 22.2 ± 1.69 kg/m² and spirometric indices within normal limits. Specific MVIC for SCM, SCA and RA showed the highest RMS. When we grouped sample into gender we found no difference among RMS values for the studied SCM maneuvers, while for SCA, MVIC SCM / SCA was the one with the highest RMS and for RA, MVIC RA in men. Once considering women, MVIC SCM/SCA showed the highest RMS for SCM, SCA and MVIC RA showed t he highest value for RA. Conclusion: MVIC for SCM, SCA and RA muscles showed the highest RMS values. When comparing RMS between the studied groups, there was no significant difference between men and women.

Prevalência da infecção por papilomavírus humano, herpes simplex tipo 1 e 2 e Chlamydia trachomatis em um segmento da população feminina da grande Natal/RN

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are among the largest public health problems, especially in developing countries. The acquisition of these infections during early sexual activity is common and many infections have a benign course. However, in some pathogens remain in the state of latency can be reactivated and cause productive infection that may progress to severe forms. In addition, some of them are transmitted vertically resulting in congenital infection, causing immediate damage or long-term child. The classic risk factors for sexually transmitted agents are: early onset of sexual and reproductive health, multiple sexual partners throughout life, use of oral contraceptives and co-infections with different pathogens. We present the results of a cross-sectional study aimed to estimate the prevalence of genital infection by human papillomavirus (HPV), Herpes simplex virus (HSV) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in a segment of the female population of the metropolitan area Christmas, among those who enrolled voluntarily sought, Basic Health Units for the examination of cancer screening cervix in the period 2008 to 2010. All participants, a total of 261 women answered a standard questionnaire by which identified the socio-demographic characteristics, classical risk factors for STDs, reproductive and sexual activity and smoking. Of each patient were obtained two samples, one for the completion of the Pap test for detection of cellular changes and the other processed for DNA extraction and analyzed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) to detect the three pathogens studied. The population of the study was composed of sexually active women aged between 13 and 79 years, mean 38.7 years, most of them being married, low education levels and low incomes. The majority (87%) had normal results on cytology and only 2.7% had low-grade cytological abnormalities. Prevalence rates were 37.9% for HPV, 4.6% for CT and 26% for HSV. HPV prevalence was higher in women under 25, unmarried and in those who had multiple sexual partners. Women with simultaneous infection by HSV-1 and 2 had higher prevalence of HPV infection. The prevalence of HSV infection showed no association whatsoever with the risk factors analyzed and HSV-1 was the predominant type among the cases of genital HSV infection. The overall prevalence of C. Trachomatis was relatively low, thus providing greater value in younger women aged less than or equal to 20 years

Avaliação da desadaptação das selas de próteses parciais removíveis após 1 a 5 anos de uso

The non-adaptation of the removable partial prosthesis (RPP) base to fibromucosal tissue is caused by resorption of residual ridges (RRR). The onset of bone resorption, which occurs after tooth extraction and continues throughout life, is accelerated by local or systemic factors. Aim: Assess the degree of non-adaptation of removable partial prosthesis saddles and the factors that influence it. Methodology: A sectional study was conducted with 81 patients using RPP who had their prostheses installed between 2003 and 2007 (1 to 5 years of use) at the Faculty of Dentistry of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). After anamnese and clinical examination, a cast was made with polyether-based material, using the base of the prosthesis to make the impression. The base of the saddle was loaded with the casting material and positioned in the mouth, applying pressure on the supports. After polymerization, the material was removed from the saddle and measurements were taken at 3 different points using a pachymeter. Results: The non-adaptation of the saddle increased significantly with years of use (p = 0.005). The tooth-tissue supported prostheses obtained higher mean non-adaptation values than those of tooth supported prostheses (p < 0.001). Flaccid mucosa showed the worst non-adaptation results, which were statistically different from resilient mucosa (p < 0.001). The greater the extension of the saddle, the greater the non-adaptation (p < 0.001). The natural tooth antagonistic arch yielded better results than did RPP and total prosthesis (p < 0.001). Saddle non-adaptation at the free end was less near the pillar tooth and greater in the more posterior region (p < 0.001). When adaptation of the supports to the niches was poor, greater saddle non-adaptation occurred than when it was good or fair (p < 0.001). Saddles located in the posterior region of the arch had greater non-adaptation than those in the anterior region (p = 0.023). Conclusion: The mean non-adaptation of the saddle to the residual ridges was 0.27 mm. It can be concluded that, even with the use of RPP, bone height reduction was slight within the 1-5-year period of use. The following are factors that influence adaptation of the RPP saddle base: years of use, age, force transmission path to the alveolar bone, location of the toothless area, antagonistic arch, type of mucosa, adaptation of supports to the niche and extension of the saddle