A cientometria revisitada à luz da expansão da ciência, da tecnologia e da inovação

VANTI, Nadia. A cientometria revisitada à luz da expansão da ciência, da tecnologia e da inovação. PontodeAcesso, Salvador, v. 5, p. 5-31, 2011

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

O Litoral e a metrópole dinâmica imobiliária, turismo e expansão urbana na região metropolitana de Natal-RN

The metropolitan regions of Northeast Brazil are being gradually included in a scenario of international investments, which are motivated by the restructuring of both touristic and real-estate sectors. The new capital, real-estate developers and space configurations that result from this process indicate the need for the creation and implementation of public tools which should, at least, allow the mitigation of the urban impacts and environmental losses resulting from this situation. The effects on landscape and on the socio-spatial configuration result from the intensification caused by the dynamism of the "real estate-tourism" sector. There is a regional integration as an expression of the urban expansion of the metropolitan area of Natal. This study investigates the uniqueness of the restructuring and territorial integration of coastal areas and the strategies of the circuit of capital accumulation formed by linking the real estate to tourism. It is intended to increase the understanding about the strategies of tourism, real estate and public policy agents involved in this territorial reconfiguration and in the fund-raising needed for the investments, to understand the existing social and environmental effects and their future trends and also to understand the forms of spatial production as results from the practices of approaching the land transformation and the tourism valorization of the landscape, in a synchronous manner, first in the Northeast region and, as a focal study, in the Metropolitan Area of Natal. Likewise, it is intended to apprehend the current processes of metropolization of the eastern coast of Rio Grande do Norte, in addition to indicate its physical-territorial transformation and the types of projects/developments promoted by the market in the recent period. Based upon analysis undertaken for the Metropolitan Region of Natal RN, this piece of work presents some considerations on possible legal instruments that can be adjusted to the municipalities which are experiencing the impact of this peculiar and recent phenomenon in the region, caused by the arrival of the real estate-touristic capital. It is also intended to point out basic proposals to the forms of public intervention, in a speculative way, starting from a Metropolitan Planning project within a medium and long term

Outorga onerosa do direito de construir e dinâmica do mercado imobiliário formal: planejamento e descaminhos na expansão urbana de Parnamirim RN (2008-2010)

The `Outorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir - OODC` (Public Concession of Building Rights), instrument instituted by The City Statute in 2001, has as main objective the recovery of urban property, seeking for a fair distribution the urbanization benefits. The possibility of usage of the OODC instrument is linked to the maximum utilization coefficient, determined to specific areas in accordance to existing infrastructure conditions, further taking into account the formal real estate market, expansion axis and crowding. Being an instrument which establishes values to be paid for a better use of land, it maintains a narrow relation to the real estate, incentivizing or discouraging the crowding in specific areas. The present study investigates the relationship between the criteria for the making of the Public Concession of Building Rights instrument and the dynamics of the formal real estate market. It takes as empiric universe Parnamirim (RN), part of the Natal Metropolitan Area (RN), focusing on the application of the OODC in the period of 2008-2010. It seeks to better understand the necessary basis for the formulation of the instrument, about how it works and its relation to the formal real estate market. It aims to depict the formal real estate market by presenting the production of urban space in Parnamirim in terms of intensity and nature of the real estate, furthermore identifying the licensed properties through the application of the municipality instrument. For the conclusion, it is discussed the criteria for the formation of OODC, its relationship to the dynamics of the formal real estate market and its influencing possibilities in the processes of usage and occupation of land in the context of urban planning

Entre o mar e estrela, um lugar para se bem viver : a problemática da expansão urbana da Cidade de Baía Formosa/RN

The urban expansion problem of Baía Formosa, a southern edge city of de Rio Grande do Norte eastern coast, which has been presented in other coast Brazilian towns, specially on those with tourist activities increase. Therefore, this situation brings huge concerns to their inhabitants, to their technical /scientific community and to the governments, because of the conflicts of interest and of the growth of urban problems that this has been created. At Baía Formosa, the situation is aggravated because the city is confined, once around it, there are large private proprieties, environmental preservation area and the sea, at the eastern edge. The objectives of this study are the analyses of this city expansion process in order to obtain adequate alternatives and defining methodology to apply in other urban nucleus that are subjected to similar situations. Of course, presents social relations, environmental conditions and promoting local population insertion should be considered in order that enjoin this process and contributing to a better social balance. This case study has used bibliography research, field data, maps and soil occupation recorders and photographs of the area, besides the primary data gathering by surveys carried out with many social actors. The present analysis shows that the urban expansion observed today is featured by a recent unsustainable model, which attacks the environment and brings either farm conflicts. On the other hand, the ecological tourism can represent an alternative in order to achieve an adequate expansion form, without forgetting the several structural parameters necessary to support the sustainable activities

Descrição do ciclo gametogênico do ouriço-branco, Tripneustes ventricosus (Lamarck, 1816), no Arquipélago de Fernando de Noronha PE, Brasil

Sea urchins are common benthic organisms on coastal ecosystems of tropical and temperate shallow waters. The impact of sea urchins populations in shore communities is density-dependent, and therefore, knowledge of the life history of these animals is important to understand these interactions. Between 2000 and 2005 a population boom of Tripneustes ventricosus was observed in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. In 2004 a research program was started to monitor the population dynamics of T. ventricosus in the archipelago, when it noted a lack of basic information on the biology and reproduction of this species, despite its broad geographic distribution and economic importance in parts of its occurrence. In this context, this work focuses on the reproductive biology of T. ventricosus with emphasis on the description of the gametogenic stages. Between December 2006 and July 2007, ten urchins were collected by snorkeling in two sites of the archipelago, totaling 120 individuals. Gametogenic stages were described for both sexes through microscopic analysis, and were defined as: Recovery, Growing, Premature, Mature and Spawning. Results showed increasing in Gonad index throughout of months of sampling and suggest that the reproductive cycle of the species in the archipelago is annual

Biodiversidade e abundância da ictiofauna associada ao cultivo orgânico de Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931)

The expansion of shrimp farming has caused a series of environmental impacts, often as a result of lack of planning and adequate management. Organic aquaculture has emerged as an alternative to conventional shrimp farming, and differently, aims at the economical, ecological and farming potential of other organisms, such as fishes, oysters and seaweeds. The present study aimed at evaluating the biological diversity and abundance of the ichthyofauna associated to Litopenaeus vannamei organic culture at PRIMAR farm (Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil). The sampling period consisted of four culture cycles (1, 2, 3, and 4) accomplished in four grow-out ponds (V1, V7, V2, and V4) in 2005. The first two culture cycles were carried out during the rainy season, and the last two cycles, during the dry season. Environmental (temperature, salinity, transparency, and rainfall), biodiversity (diversity and uniformity and abundance indexes) of the ichthyofauna, and shrimp productivity data were collected throughout these four culture cycles. The results obtained for the environmental variables showed that both salinity and transparency oscillated in a significant way (p < 0.001) between culture cycles. In relation to the abundance of the ichthyofauna, fifty four species associated to the organic culture of Litopenaeus vannamei were collected and identified at PRIMAR. For the biodiversity criterion, larger species richness (S = 46) and uniformity (E = 0.59 ± 0.16) were observed during cycles 3 and 4 than in cycles 1 and 2 (S = 41 and E = 0.15 ± 0.12). A positive and significant correlation was obtained for the transparency with diversity and uniformity of fish species between cycles 1 and 2 (wet season) and cycles 3 and 4 (dry season) (p < 0.017 - Shannon Index; p < 0.008 - Pielou Index, respectively). A correlation could not be established between shrimp productivity and fish biomass. However, fish biomass decreased from cycles 1 and 2 to cycles 3 and 4, concomitant with an increase in shrimp productivity, most probably due to a higher (from 58.0% to 71.0%) shrimp survival. Regarding the culture potential of the ichthyofauna, three species (Mugil curema, Mugil liza and Chaetodipterus faber) were identified as potential farming alternatives, either singly or in consortium with Litopenaeus vannamei. A fourth species (Centropomus undecimalis) was indicated as an alternative for single culture or in consortium with other fish species. In conclusion, the large diversity of estuarine fishes associated to Litopenaeus vannamei farming observed at PRIMAR clearly indicated the ecological feasibility for organic aquaculture in northeastern Brazil

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

O uso pedagógico das TIC como expansão das capacidades : o ProInfo Natal/RN

The broad objective of the research The pedagogic use of ICT as development of teaching capacity: the case of ProInfo Natal/RN was to realize an evaluation of this program effectiveness in public schools. Specifically, we ve tried to observe if the program: a) succeeded by promoting the pedagogical use of new ICTs, b) stimulated the improvement of teaching and learning using ICT, and c) performed functionings and expanding its capabilities. The methodology consisted of literature revision; realization of half-structured interviews with administrators and teachers, and leading four focal groups with students in 9th grade of elementary school, were also made observations and analysis about the official documents which regulates the program. Our results showed that ProInfo presents various interferences in its effectiveness, causing a gap between its marks and the actual results of its use in everyday life of schools. We ve concluded that the program needs to challenge these weaknesses in order to contribute to the promotion of functionings and expanding its capabilities

O Papel do Estado na promoção do Desenvolvimento Nacional: a utilização do instrumento do planejamento na expansão da oferta energética

The progress of a nation is closely linked to the energy supply that it has to develop its economic capabilities. The dependence of contemporary society for energy requires the continued expansion of the use of renewable energy, and implies coordinated action of the Democratic State in the delimitation of the best ways to make full use of energy. In periods of rapid development, countries need an increment of energy supplies superior to those of periods of regular economic growth. Energy demand generated by the condition of Brazil as an emerging country reveals the need for orderly expansion of energy supply. In reverse, lack of energy planning effectively paralyzes a country and generates incalculable losses in national socioeconomic development. The Brazilian Constitution abandoned the notion of development tied to the simple increase in the gross domestic product. The respect for the environment, sovereignty, national development, and especially the constant and growing supply of energy, promotes the advancement of national economic agents, and quenches the simple accounting increase in energy supply. Constitutional principles condition the rational use of energy potentials, in ensuring adequate supply of energy for the entire national territory. The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy, through its agencies, government offices and companies, establishes and formulates policies and guidelines for energy in Brazil, playing an important role in national energy planning. National development is enhanced by the good performance of the state agencies responsible for planning the energy sector

Análise econômica da expansão do direito penal

Aborda a evolução histórica das liberdades individuais, a partir de apontamentos pertinentes ao constitucionalismo liberal, à formação do Estado de Direito e ao advento dos regimes democráticos amparados em direitos fundamentais. Pretende, quanto aos direitos fundamentais, mostrar diversas classificações, funções, critérios e conceitos, além da sistematização de gerações ou dimensões de direitos. Discorre acerca da teoria dos limites aos limites, ao lado de teorias correlatas em profícua confrontação doutrinária, tudo com fins a estruturar os conceitos basilares de direitos de liberdade, que orientam o restante da obra. Trata do cenário histórico-jurídico do surgimento da Análise Econômica do Direito (AED), consistente, sobretudo, no jusrealismo norte-americano, abordado, em paralelo, com o realismo jurídico escandinavo. Aplica conceitos e premissas de microeconomia ao Direito Penal, com ênfase para a investigação do comportamento criminoso empreendida pela Economia do Crime. Avança não apenas restrito à perspectiva teórica, trazendo dados empíricos e implicações concretas da teoria econômica dos delitos e das penas, que serão reconhecidos na evolução e redução da criminalidade, nas políticas de desarmamento, na estruturação empresarial do narcotráfico, bem como na otimização da administração penitenciária brasileira a fim de concretizar o preconizado pela legislação de execução penal. Desenvolve estudo a partir da leitura histórica do Direito Penal, passando pelos conceitos de sociedade complexa e de riscos. Analisa, após fixados tais pressupostos, algumas causas do processo de expansão do Direito Penal com vistas a identificar propostas alternativas ao hiperpunitivismo hodierno, preservando-se, assim, os direitos de liberdade que sustentam o Estado Democrático de Direito. Propõe uma desconstrução do conceito jurídico do princípio da eficiência administrativa, demonstrando como seu conteúdo normativo foi demasiadamente mitigado pela recepção precária dos respectivos elementos econômicos por parte da doutrina e da jurisprudência pátria. Ressalta a importância jurídica da eficiência econômica, devidamente harmonizada com os demais princípios constitucionais, por força do instrumental analítico da AED Positiva. Investiga criticamente algumas teorias sociológicas tendentes ao funcionalismo penal, sob referenciais de eficiência e de direitos de liberdade. Almeja, ao final, propor a AED como alternativa à expansão funcionalista e irracional dos tipos e sanções criminais, de modo que a aproximação entre Economia do Crime, eficiência econômica e Direito Penal contribua para blindar os direitos de liberdade das vicissitudes típicas da sociedade contemporânea

Educação profissional: a expansão recente do IFRN e a absorção local dos egressos no mercado de trabalho

This study aims to analyze how IFRN s process of interiorization contributes to endogenization of local and territorial development, more precisely in terms of graduates absorption into the labor market, form of inclusion and increase of income and welfare. The research premise is that the policy of interiorization and expansion of professional and technology education, by decentralizing opportunities, create a differential for the educational and professional trajectory of part of the graduates. This training, however, retain a relative connection with the productive potentialities in the coverage territories. This study includes a review of the literature on education and labor market and a discussion about the role of technical and professional formation for the local development versus the logic of the free market, considering the expansion of public spending for this purpose. For this study two sets of information and data have been collected primarily, with qualitative and quantitative nature. The research with qualitative focus, entitled Pesquisa de Avaliação da Expansão (PAEX), is constituted by series of open interviews applied to institutional representatives, with the purpose of knowing aspects of the interiorization repercussion in the local development process. The research designed to quantity analysis, entitled of the Pesquisa de Acompanhamento de Egressos (PAE), have been put in practice by applying online questionnaire with closed questions to IFRN s former students, aiming to know the form of insertion of the graduates in the labor market and the formation capacity of increasing the welfare, among other things. Empirical data and information fully confirmed the hypothesis of this study, for they really demonstrated that the expansion policy decentralizes opportunities and constitutes an important differential for the professional trajectory of a significant portion of the graduates. However, the graduates employability in the labor market in their territories of coverage is below expectations, due to structural problems of the local economy related to scarcity of jobs, difficulty in wage growth and in professional development. Complementarily, it has been observed institutional difficulties related to the recent implantation process of the policy of professional and technical education in the various campuses of the Institution

As relações entre o público e o privado no processo de expansão do ensino superior no Brasil: democratização ou mercantilização?

The present study analyzes the expansion of Brazilian superior education, investigating how the public and the private sectors are inserted in this process, taking as analysis dimensions the philanthropic actions, the democratization and the mercantilism. The study had for general objective to analyze the dynamics of the expansion of superior education in Brazil, investigating how it configures the overlap between the public and the private in this process. More specifically was tried: a) to understand the process of participation of the non-state public, state and private sectors with lucrative goals in the expansion of superior education; b) to analyze the limits between the democratization and mercantilism in the process of expansion of superior education; c) to analyze the mechanisms that express the privatization in the process of expansion of superior education; d) to investigate, in a program of the government, how is materialized the overlap between the public and the private, in the expansion of superior education. In the development of the study, was adopted as theoretician and methodological way a historical and critical perspective, because is considered it allows to understand the mediations between the inquiry subject and the historical context in which it is developed, allowing, this way, the true explanation of the studied object. About the technician procedures, it was adopted documentary and bibliographical research. Also, secondary data were searched on the main governmental web sites (INEP, SISPROUNI, INEP, PNUD; IBGE) which produce statistics on superior education and sponsors of private institutions of superior education, as example ABMES and the Court of Accounts of the Union, amongst others. The study results had delineated a picture that allows to evidence that has been occurring, in the country, a process of expansion of superior education, marked for the articulated participation of the public state, private with lucrative ends and private without lucrative ends sectors, but it is distinguished in recent years the prevalence of the private sector with lucrative ends. In result, it is concluded that this process of expansion cannot be considered as dimension of the democratization because it occurs by means that move it away from the education as a right to be placed in the scope of the market, changing the right into a service that is appropriated by mercantile relations

Programa de apoio a planos de reestruturação e expansão das Universidades Públicas Federais (REUNI): repercussões na UFRN

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la implantación del Programa de Apoyo a Planes de Reestructuración y Expansión de las Universidades Federales (REUNI) así como su papel en la reconfiguración de la Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, resaltando sus repercusiones en la gestión y organización de la universidad. Para la realización del trabajo, entre los procedimientos técnicos, utilizamos la revisión de literatura, el análisis de documentos y las entrevistas semiestructuradas. La revisión bibliográfica ha permitido profundizar en conceptos importantes sobre la temática, priorizando los contenidos referentes a los conceptos de globalización y neoliberalismo; La reforma del Estado y sus repercusiones sobre las políticas de educación superior brasileña; directrices de documentos internacionales y nacionales que definieron la organización de este nivel de enseñanza. Los estudios indican, en relación a la expansión de la UFRN, que las metas pactadas del REUNI fueron atendidas casi en su totalidad. Sin embargo, cualitativamente, no se puede afirmar que el REUNI haya tenido un impacto positivo, pues además del incremento de plazas y de la creación de cursos nuevos, que en su mayoría fueron cursos nocturnos, ha habido un aumento sustancial en relación a la cantidad de alumnos por profesor, lo que demuestra que dicho incremento también se da por la racionalización de los recursos humanos y de la estructura físca existentes. Desde esta perspectiva, el REUNI originó varias modificaciones en la forma de gestionar los servicios en la UFRN, mereciendo especial atención la intensificación del proceso de transformaciones en la concepción de una gestión burocrática a una gestión desde la gerencia, resaltando la cultura instituída con el contrato de gestión. En ese sentido, la utilización de las metas y de los indicadores de desempeño pasa a adquirir cada vez más importancia como forma de acompañar y evaluar el cumplimiento de las acciones pactadas, pues de este cumplimiento depende la concesión de recursos financieros. Dentro de este contexto, el Programa se ha caracterizado por dar continuidad a las políticas de privatización para la expansión de la educación superior brasileña, provocando la inserción en las universidades públicas federales, de un modelo de organización fundamentado en el paradigma de la gerencia y la administración, que conlleva así, a la mercantilización de los bienes y servicios académicos

Gestão da satisfação e fidelidade do cliente : um estudo dos fatores que influenciam na satisfação e fidelidade dos clientes corporativos de telefonia celular

The competition in the telecommunications industry has grown in Brazil since the privatization, forcing companies that are active in the market to a growing commitment to quality products and services in order to survive. In this context, this work aims to understand the main factors that influence the degree of satisfaction exists in respect of a mobile operator with its corporate customers. The research covered theoretical concepts and analytical models of quality management system and models of indices related to the measurement of customer satisfaction. For the field research was carried out in a practical application of the main approaches based on this thesis by a case study in corporate segment, through a questionnaire applied to 10 consultants and 40 corporate customers of that company. Comparing the results of research with the consultants and corporate clients there is the concern of respondents to the indicators that comprise the constructs of customer satisfaction, commitment calculated, the price index and the handling of complaints, denoting the dissatisfaction of the general assessment for corporate customers with the carrier, against its current expectations. It is concluded that the mobile operator of the telecommunications industry have a big challenge, after ten years of privatization and consequently the period of rapid expansion of customer base and with the depleted, retain corporate customers as highly strategic, thus avoiding that migrate to other companies. We emphasize the need for further research and analysis of different approaches through research and using the same models to specifically evaluate and measure customer satisfaction of mobile enterprise, to adjust the model to the national market. Finally, we suggest the creation of an effective customer loyalty program with a strategy of relationship and specific to the corporate sector of mobile telephony