Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

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Geoprocessamento de dados meteo-oceonográficos (cor do oceano e temperatura da superfície do mar) aplicado ao monitoramento ambiental na costa setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte

Orbital remote sensing has been used as a beneficial tool in improving the knowledge on oceanographic and hydrodynamic aspects in northern portion of the continental shelf of Rio Grande do Norte, offshore Potiguar Basin. Aspects such as geography, temporal and spatial resolution combined with a consistent methodology and provide a substantial economic advantage compared to traditional methods of in situ data collecting. Images of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA's AQUA satellite were obtained to support systematic data collections related to the campaign of environmental monitoring and characterization of Potiguar Basin, held in May 2004. Images of Total Suspension Matter (TSM) and values of radiance standard were generated for the calculation of concentrations of total suspension matter (TSM), chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature (SST). These data sets were used for statistical comparisons between measures in situ and satellite estimates looking validate algorithms or develop a comprehensive regional approach empirically. AQUA-MODIS images allowed the simultaneous comparison of two-dimensional water quality (total suspension matter), phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) variability and physical (temperature). For images of total suspension matter, the generated models showed a good correlation with the field data, allowing quantitative and qualitative analysis. The images of chlorophyll-a showed a consistent correlation with the in situ values of concentration. The algorithms adjusted for these images obtained a correlation coefficient fairly well with the data field in order that the sensor can be having an effect throughout the water column and not just the surface. This has led to a fit between the data of chlorophyll-the integration of the average sampling interval of the entire water column up to the level of the first optical depth, with the data generated from the images. This method resulted in higher values of chlorophyll concentration to greater depths, due to the fact that we are integrating more values of chlorophyll in the water column. Thus we can represent the biomass available in the water column. Images SST and SST measures in situ showed a mean difference DT (SST insitu - SST sat) around -0.14 ° C, considered low, making the results very good. The integration of total suspension matter, chlorophyll-a, the temperature of the sea surface (SST) and auxiliary data enabled the recognition of some of the main ways to fund the continental shelf. The main features highlighted were submerged canyons of rivers Apodi and Açu, some of the lines and beachrocks reefs, structural highs and the continental shelf break which occurs at depths around -60 m. The results confirmed the high potential for use of the AQUA-MODIS images to environmental monitoring of sea areas due to ease of detection of the field two-dimensional material in suspension on the sea surface, temperature and the concentration of chlorophyll-a

Avaliação da influência de cinza da casca de arroz em cimentos para poços de petróleo submetidos à injeção de vapor

Reservoirs that present highly viscous oils require methods to aid in their recovery to the surface. The elev ated oil viscosity hinders its flow through porous media and conventional recovery methods have not obtained significant efficiency. As such, the injection of steam into the reservoir through an injection well has been the most widely used method of therma l recovery, for it allows elevated volumes of recovery due to the viscosity reduction of the oil, facilitating the oil’s mobility within the rock formation and consequently into the production well where it will be exploited. On the other hand, the injecti on of vapor not only affects the fluids found in the rock pores, but the entire structure that composes the well where it is injected due to the high temperatures used in the process. This temperature increment is conducted to the cement, found in the annu lus, responsible for the isolation of the well and the well casing. Temperatures above 110 ̊C create new fazes rich in calcium in the cement matrix, resulting in the reduction of its permeability and the consequential phenomenon of mechanical resistance ret rogression. These alterations generate faults in the cement, reducing the well’s hydraulic isolation, creating insecurity in the operations in which the well will be submitted as well as the reduction of its economic life span. As a way of reducing this re trograde effect, this study has the objective of evaluating the incorporation of rice husk ash as a mineral additive substitute of silica flour , commercially utilized as a source of silica to reduce the CaO/SiO 2 ratio in the cement pastes submitted to high temperatures in thermal recovery. Cement pastes were formulated containing 20 and 30% levels of ash, apart from the basic paste (water + cement) and a reference paste (water + cement + 40% silica flour) for comparison purposes. The tests were executed th rough compression resistance tests, X - Ray diffraction (XRD) techniques, thermogravimetry (TG), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and chemical anal ysis BY X - ray fluorescence (EDS) on the pastes submitted to cure at low temperatures (45 ̊C) for 28 days following a cure at 280 ̊C and a pressure of 2,000 PSI for 3 days, simulating vapor injection. The results obtained show that the paste containing 30% r ice shell ash is satisfactory, obtaining mechanical resistance desired and equivalent to that of the paste containing 40% silica flour, since the products obtained were hydrated with low CaO/SiO 2 ratio, like the Tobermorita and Xonotlita fases, proving its applicability in well subject to vapor injection.

Desenvolvimento de pastas cimentantes contendo nanossílica como material estendedor para aplicação em fases iniciais, de poços petrolíferos, submetidas à baixa temperatura (5°c ± 3ºc)

The improved performance of hydraulic binders, the base of Portland cement, consists in the careful selection and application of materials that promote greater durability and reduced maintenance costs There is a wide variety of chemical additives used in Portland cement slurries for cementing oil wells. These are designed to work in temperatures below 0 ° C (frozen areas of land) to 300 ° C (thermal recovery wells and geothermal); pressure ranges near ambient pressure (in shallow wells) to greater than 200 MPa (in deep wells). Thus, additives make possible the adaptation of the cement slurries for application under various conditions. Among the materials used in Portland cement slurry, for oil wells, the materials with nanometer scale have been applied with good results. The nanossílica, formed by a dispersion of SiO2 particles, in the nanometer scale, when used in cement systems improves the plastic characteristics and mechanical properties of the hardened material. This dispersion is used commercially as filler material, modifier of rheological properties and / or in recovery processes construction. It is also used in many product formulations such as paints, plastics, synthetic rubbers, adhesives, sealants and insulating materials Based on the above, this study aims to evaluate the performance of nanossílica as extender additive and improver of the performance of cement slurries subjected to low temperatures (5 ° C ± 3 ° C) for application to early stages of marine oil wells. Cement slurries were formulated, with densities 11.0;12.0 and 13.0 ppg, and concentrations of 0; 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5%. The cement slurries were subjected to cold temperatures (5 ° C ± 3 ° C), and its evaluation performed by tests rheological stability, free water and compressive strength in accordance with the procedures set by API SPEC 10A. Thermal characterization tests (TG / DTA) and crystallographic (XRD) were also performed. The use of nanossílica promoted reduction of 30% of the volume of free water and increased compression resistance value of 54.2% with respect to the default cement slurry. Therefore, nanossílica presented as a promising material for use in cement slurries used in the early stages of low-temperature oil wells

Perfil imunológico associado à susceptibilidade, resistência e cura na infecção por Leishmania ( Leishmania ) infantum

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic in Brazil and the northeast region had the highest incidence of the disease , despite, in the last 30 years, it has spread to all geographic regions of the country. Leishmania infantum is the m ain etiological agent of VL in Latin America, Europe and North Africa. However, not all infected individuals develop the disease; in fact, the majority present spontaneous re solution of infection without symptoms. The evaluation of the immunological profil e has been mostly conducted stimulating, with Leishmania spp. antigen, peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from subjects with VL. These studies showed that VL patients had an inhibition of both, lymphocyte proliferation and proinflammatory response to Leishmania spp. antigen. Our study aimed to evaluate the immune response in active LV, cured post treatment and asymptomatic infection. To reach this aim, we analyzed immunophenotypic features related to activation, Treg and memory lymphocytes, by flow cytometry, as well as, evaluation of cytokine production, in ex vivo or in whole blood culture. In active VL volunteers, a longitu dinal study was conducted with reassessment at 4 and 14 months after clinical cure. The control group included individuals th at live d in endemic region and were either Positive Control, consisting of individuals with positive anti - L eishmania spp. serology and/or positive PCR for Leishmania  spp. and Negative Control composed by individuals with negative anti - Leishmania antibodie s serology and negative PCR for Leishmania . During VL, CD4 lymphocytes showed greater activation and memory profile s and were the major source of cytokines in culture when compared to CD8 lymphocytes , and these were not Leishmania specific. There were act ivated lymphocytes during VL (CD4 + CD69 + :4.9%) when compared to control groups, Positive (CD4 + CD69 + :1.96%, p=0.0045) and Negative (CD4 + CD69 + :1.35%, p=0.006), on the other hand, this was non - specific activation. The lymphocyte activation profile remain ed el evated even 14 months post treatmen t. A fter clinical cure , the activation was Leishmania specific (CD4 + CD25 + absence of SLA: 8.4%, and presence of SLA: 10.7% p=0.0279). CD8 + CD25 + lymphocytes were able to produce Leishmania specific IFN - γ in both, Positive Controls (absence of SLA 5.2% and presence of SLA: 9.5%, p=0.0391) and Cured 4 month (absence of SLA: 3.9%; presence of SLA: 10.7% p=0.0098). Whole blood culture cells, of VL patients, were able to produce IFN - γ, by SLA stimulation (absence of SLA: 28.0 pg ∕mL, and presence: 44.3 pg∕mL p=0.0020) as well as recovered groups (absence of SLA 2.3 pg∕mL and presence of SLA 139.8 pg∕mL, p=0.0005). However, the high level of IL - 10 seem ed to inhibit pro - inflammatory activity of IFN - γ and TNF - α during symptomatic dis ease . Unlike other pro - inflammatory cytokines, active VL group d id not produce Leishmania specific IL - 2 (absence of SLA 2.4 pg∕mL and presence of SLA: 2.6 pg∕mL). Based on these data we conclude that the restoration of lymphocyte activation and decreased i n IL - 10 Leishmania specific production were related to a protective immune profile.

Sonho e cura: o culto de Asclépio em Epidauro entre os séculos IV e II a. C.

Profound changes have marked Greek society from the fourth century B.C.. Conquests, wars and epidemics altered drastically the Greek’s posture regarding his public life, his conception of gods and hence the construction of their spaces, whether sacred or profane. Through the fonts, we perceived that the cult of god Asklepeios turned very popular, in this context, for the peculiar way that the god relates to his devotees, through the dreams. We know that the dream was held, for the Greeks, as a space of real existence, it was sacred, and could be accessed in the healing rituals of Asklepios. Our work intends, thereby, to understand the curious and peculiar oniric space, mainly through the inscriptions, architectural structures of the sanctuary and the ancient texts that refer to the context of the period, because we understand that this space was the essential condition for the popularization of the cult, it placed the individual in direct contact with the divinity, a rare closeness between men and gods accepted by the greek imagery until then.

Otimização de parâmetros mecânicos e microestruturais dos moldes em areia de sílica ligados quimicamente pelo processo de cura a frio em fundição de aço

Surface defects on steel parts borne costs of smelting industries due to the need of rework. Sand molds are frequently used in foundry industries and largely responsible for providing surface defects. This study aims to optimize the levels of the molding process variables to minimize the occurrence of surface defects in steel castings in silica sand molds chemically linked by cold cure process. The methodology used the experimental design with split plot, being considered in the study the resin percentage factors in the mold formulation, addition of iron oxide, type of paint, the paint application method, amount of ink layers, use of hot air along the lines and waiting time of the mold before casting. They were analyzed as response variables erosion defects, sand inclusion, penetration, porosity and surface finish. Tensile strength tests were performed to evaluate the influence of factors on mechanical parameters and the microstructural parameters were carried out the analysis of X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and thermal analysis (TG / DSC / dilatometry). The results elucidate that for the faulty erosion, the only significant factor with a 95% confidence level was the type of ink and the ink alumina-based superior results obtained. For the sand inclusion of defect, there were three significant factors, with best results obtained with alumina-based paint and spray applied using hot air in the mold before casting the metal. For the defect penetration, there were four significant factors, the best results being achieved with 0.8% of resin and addition of iron oxide in the molding formulation, the paint being applied by brush and standby time of 24 hours before leak. For the defect porosity with a 95% confidence level, no significant factors. For the defect surface finish, the best results were achieved with the 0.8% formulation of the resin in the mold and application of the paint brush. To obtain the levels of the factors that optimize all defects simultaneously, we performed a weighted average of the results of each type of fault, concluding that the best levels of the factors were: 0.8% resin and addition of iron oxide in the formulation of the template, application of two coats of paint applied with a brush or spray, using hot air in the mold before casting and 24 hours of waiting ready the mold before casting. These levels of the optimized factors were used in an experiment to confirm that ratified the results, helping to reduce rework and consequently reducing costs of cast steel parts.

Estudo da absorção das espécies pesadas do gás natural em octanol: efeitos da temperatura e vazão

In the oil industry, natural gas is a vital component of the world energy supply and an important source of hydrocarbons. It is one of the cleanest, safest and most relevant of all energy sources, and helps to meet the world's growing demand for clean energy in the future. With the growing share of natural gas in the Brazil energy matrix, the main purpose of its use has been the supply of electricity by thermal power generation. In the current production process, as in a Natural Gas Processing Unit (NGPU), natural gas undergoes various separation units aimed at producing liquefied natural gas and fuel gas. The latter should be specified to meet the thermal machines specifications. In the case of remote wells, the process of absorption of heavy components aims the match of fuel gas application and thereby is an alternative to increase the energy matrix. Currently, due to the high demand for this raw gas, research and development techniques aimed at adjusting natural gas are studied. Conventional methods employed today, such as physical absorption, show good results. The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the removal of heavy components of natural gas by absorption. In this research it was used as the absorbent octyl alcohol (1-octanol). The influence of temperature (5 and 40 °C) and flowrate (25 and 50 ml/min) on the absorption process was studied. Absorption capacity expressed by the amount absorbed and kinetic parameters, expressed by the mass transfer coefficient, were evaluated. As expected from the literature, it was observed that the absorption of heavy hydrocarbon fraction is favored by lowering the temperature. Moreover, both temperature and flowrate favors mass transfer (kinetic effect). The absorption kinetics for removal of heavy components was monitored by chromatographic analysis and the experimental results demonstrated a high percentage of recovery of heavy components. Furthermore, it was observed that the use of octyl alcohol as absorbent was feasible for the requested separation process.

Estudo da absorção das espécies pesadas do gás natural em octanol: efeitos da temperatura e vazão

In the oil industry, natural gas is a vital component of the world energy supply and an important source of hydrocarbons. It is one of the cleanest, safest and most relevant of all energy sources, and helps to meet the world's growing demand for clean energy in the future. With the growing share of natural gas in the Brazil energy matrix, the main purpose of its use has been the supply of electricity by thermal power generation. In the current production process, as in a Natural Gas Processing Unit (NGPU), natural gas undergoes various separation units aimed at producing liquefied natural gas and fuel gas. The latter should be specified to meet the thermal machines specifications. In the case of remote wells, the process of absorption of heavy components aims the match of fuel gas application and thereby is an alternative to increase the energy matrix. Currently, due to the high demand for this raw gas, research and development techniques aimed at adjusting natural gas are studied. Conventional methods employed today, such as physical absorption, show good results. The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the removal of heavy components of natural gas by absorption. In this research it was used as the absorbent octyl alcohol (1-octanol). The influence of temperature (5 and 40 °C) and flowrate (25 and 50 ml/min) on the absorption process was studied. Absorption capacity expressed by the amount absorbed and kinetic parameters, expressed by the mass transfer coefficient, were evaluated. As expected from the literature, it was observed that the absorption of heavy hydrocarbon fraction is favored by lowering the temperature. Moreover, both temperature and flowrate favors mass transfer (kinetic effect). The absorption kinetics for removal of heavy components was monitored by chromatographic analysis and the experimental results demonstrated a high percentage of recovery of heavy components. Furthermore, it was observed that the use of octyl alcohol as absorbent was feasible for the requested separation process.

Uma nova proposta de fluidos de perfuração aquosos à base de polímeros vinílicos e bentonita para poços de alta temperatura e pressão

The advance of drilling in deeper wells has required more thermostable materials. The use of synthetic fluids, which usually have a good chemical stability, faces the environmental constraints, besides it usually generate more discharge and require a costly disposal treatment of drilled cuttings, which are often not efficient and require mechanical components that hinder the operation. The adoption of aqueous fluids generally involves the use of chrome lignosulfonate, used as dispersant, which provides stability on rheological properties and fluid loss under high temperatures and pressures (HTHP). However, due to the environmental impact associated with the use of chrome compounds, the drilling industry needs alternatives that maintain the integrity of the property and ensure success of the operation in view of the strong influence of temperature on the viscosity of aqueous fluids and polymers used in these type fluids, often polysaccharides, passives of hydrolysis and biological degradation. Therefore, vinyl polymers were selected for this study because they have predominantly carbon chain and, in particular, polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) for resisting higher temperatures and partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (PHPA) and clay by increasing the system's viscosity. Moreover, the absence of acetal bonds reduces the sensitivity to attacks by bacteria. In order to develop an aqueous drilling fluid system for HTHP applications using PVP, HPAM and clay, as main constituents, fluid formulations were prepared and determined its rheological properties using rotary viscometer of the Fann, and volume filtrate obtained by filtration HTHP following the standard API 13B-2. The new fluid system using polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) with high molar weight had higher viscosities, gels and yield strength, due to the effect of flocculating clay. On the other hand, the low molecular weight PVP contributed to the formation of disperse systems with lower values in the rheological properties and fluid loss. Both systems are characterized by thermal stability gain up to around 120 ° C, keeping stable rheological parameters. The results were further corroborated through linear clay swelling tests.

Uma nova proposta de fluidos de perfuração aquosos à base de polímeros vinílicos e bentonita para poços de alta temperatura e pressão

The advance of drilling in deeper wells has required more thermostable materials. The use of synthetic fluids, which usually have a good chemical stability, faces the environmental constraints, besides it usually generate more discharge and require a costly disposal treatment of drilled cuttings, which are often not efficient and require mechanical components that hinder the operation. The adoption of aqueous fluids generally involves the use of chrome lignosulfonate, used as dispersant, which provides stability on rheological properties and fluid loss under high temperatures and pressures (HTHP). However, due to the environmental impact associated with the use of chrome compounds, the drilling industry needs alternatives that maintain the integrity of the property and ensure success of the operation in view of the strong influence of temperature on the viscosity of aqueous fluids and polymers used in these type fluids, often polysaccharides, passives of hydrolysis and biological degradation. Therefore, vinyl polymers were selected for this study because they have predominantly carbon chain and, in particular, polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) for resisting higher temperatures and partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (PHPA) and clay by increasing the system's viscosity. Moreover, the absence of acetal bonds reduces the sensitivity to attacks by bacteria. In order to develop an aqueous drilling fluid system for HTHP applications using PVP, HPAM and clay, as main constituents, fluid formulations were prepared and determined its rheological properties using rotary viscometer of the Fann, and volume filtrate obtained by filtration HTHP following the standard API 13B-2. The new fluid system using polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) with high molar weight had higher viscosities, gels and yield strength, due to the effect of flocculating clay. On the other hand, the low molecular weight PVP contributed to the formation of disperse systems with lower values in the rheological properties and fluid loss. Both systems are characterized by thermal stability gain up to around 120 ° C, keeping stable rheological parameters. The results were further corroborated through linear clay swelling tests.

Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

Modelos flexíveis de sobrevivência com fração de cura: implementação computacional

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