O olhar da criança sobre a brincadeira nos anos iniciais do ensino fundamental

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Extração e Representação de Conhecimento de Séries Temporais de Demanda de Energia Elétrica Usando TSKR

The opening of the Brazilian market of electricity and competitiveness between companies in the energy sector make the search for useful information and tools that will assist in decision making activities, increase by the concessionaires. An important source of knowledge for these utilities is the time series of energy demand. The identification of behavior patterns and description of events become important for the planning execution, seeking improvements in service quality and financial benefits. This dissertation presents a methodology based on mining and representation tools of time series, in order to extract knowledge that relate series of electricity demand in various substations connected of a electric utility. The method exploits the relationship of duration, coincidence and partial order of events in multi-dimensionals time series. To represent the knowledge is used the language proposed by Mörchen (2005) called Time Series Knowledge Representation (TSKR). We conducted a case study using time series of energy demand of 8 substations interconnected by a ring system, which feeds the metropolitan area of Goiânia-GO, provided by CELG (Companhia Energética de Goiás), responsible for the service of power distribution in the state of Goiás (Brazil). Using the proposed methodology were extracted three levels of knowledge that describe the behavior of the system studied, representing clearly the system dynamics, becoming a tool to assist planning activities

Formação continuada de professores que ensinam matemática: o papel do ábaco na ressignificação da prática pedagógica

The present dissertation performs a study about abacus part on the continuous education of Elementary School s Mathematic teachers on what concerns the basic operations of addition and subtraction with (re)unification by using the manipulative and/or informatical abacus. Therefore, the research intends to answer the following question: How does a teacher reframe the pedagogical practice while teaching the Decimal Numeral System and the conventional operations of addition and subtraction with (re)unification through manipulative and informatical abacus? In order to do so, we rely ourselves on the Guy Brousseau s Theory of Didactic Situations (TDS) from 1996 that affirms the necessity to trace a way in accordance with the teaching situations that lead the student s learning; and on the work of Pierre Lévy (1993), in which the poles of communication oral, written and virtual create three ways of communication through which the learning process happens. The methodology of this paper was based on the Strategic Research-Action of Franco (2005). The didactic sequence was elaborated in accordance with TDS and used the manipulative and informatical abacus as didactic resource. With the application of the didactic sequence, it was verified that the continued formation of Elementary School s teachers concerning the operations of addition and subtraction on the initial years/levels is pertinent once it has been observed some difficulties of the teachers concerning this mathematical subject. Besides, the analysis of the didactic sequence has allowed one to realize that teachers had some difficulties concerning the numeric representation with order zero, the resolution of operations of addition and subtraction using the manipulative and informatical abacus and the realization of (re)unification on the subtraction with meaning. These observations has been discussed with the teachers and, after that, it has been done some didactic-methodological routings of the operations of addition and subtraction with re(unification) that contributes with the teaching and learning process.

Estudos de modelos Estocásticos: processo de contato, séries aleatórias e processos difusivos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Novos métodos determinísticos para gerar centros iniciais dos grupos no algoritmo fuzzy C-Means e variantes

Data clustering is applied to various fields such as data mining, image processing and pattern recognition technique. Clustering algorithms splits a data set into clusters such that elements within the same cluster have a high degree of similarity, while elements belonging to different clusters have a high degree of dissimilarity. The Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm (FCM) is a fuzzy clustering algorithm most used and discussed in the literature. The performance of the FCM is strongly affected by the selection of the initial centers of the clusters. Therefore, the choice of a good set of initial cluster centers is very important for the performance of the algorithm. However, in FCM, the choice of initial centers is made randomly, making it difficult to find a good set. This paper proposes three new methods to obtain initial cluster centers, deterministically, the FCM algorithm, and can also be used in variants of the FCM. In this work these initialization methods were applied in variant ckMeans.With the proposed methods, we intend to obtain a set of initial centers which are close to the real cluster centers. With these new approaches startup if you want to reduce the number of iterations to converge these algorithms and processing time without affecting the quality of the cluster or even improve the quality in some cases. Accordingly, cluster validation indices were used to measure the quality of the clusters obtained by the modified FCM and ckMeans algorithms with the proposed initialization methods when applied to various data sets

Petrologia do magmatismo tardi-brasiliano no Maciço São José de Campestre(RN/PB), com ênfase no Plúton Alcalino Caxexa

The area studied is located on the north-easternmost portion of the Borborema Province, on the so-called São José de Campestre Massif, States of RN and PB, Northeast Brazil. Field relations and petrographic, geochemical and isotope data permitted the separation of five suites of plutonic rocks: alkali-feldspar granite (Caxexa Pluton), which constitutes the main subject of this dissertation, amphibole-biotite granite (Cabeçudo Pluton), biotite microgranite, gabbronorite to monzonite (Basic to Intermediate Suite) and aluminous granitoid. The Caxexa Pluton is laterally associated to the Remígio Pocinhos Shear Zone, with its emplacement along the mylonitic contact between the gneissic basement and the micashists. This pluton corresponds to a syntectonic intrusion elongated in the N-S direction, with about 50 km2 of outcropping surface. It is composed exclusively of alkali-feldspar granites, having clinopyroxene (aegirine-augite and hedenbergite), andradite-rich garnet, sphene and magnetite. It is classified geochemically as high silica rocks (>70 % wt), metaluminous to slightly peraluminous (normative corindon < 1%), with high total alkalis (>10% wt), Sr, iron number (#Fe=90-98) and agpaitic index (0.86-1.00), and positive europium anomaly. The Cabeçudo Pluton is composed of porphyritic rocks, commonly containing basic to intermediate magmatic enclaves often with mingling and mixing textures. Petrographically, it presents k-feldspar and plagioclase phenocrysts as the essential minerals, besides the accessories amphibole, biotite, sphene and magnetite. It is metaluminous and shows characteristics transitional between the calc-alkaline and alkaline series (or monzonitic subalkaline). Its REE content is greater than those ones of the Caxexa Pluton and biotite microgranite, and all spectra have negative europium anomalies. The biotite microgranites occur mainly on the central and eastern portion of the mapped area, as dykes and sheets with decimetric thickness, hosted principally in orthogneisses and micashists. Their field relationships as regards the Caxexa and Cabeçudo plutons suggested that they are late-tectonic intrusions. They are typically biotite granites, having also sphene, amphibole, allanite, opaques and zircon in the accessory assemblage. Geochemically they can be distinguished from the porphyritic types because the biotite microgranites are more evolved, peraluminous, and have more fractionated REE spectra. The Basic to Intermediate rocks form a volumetrically expressive elliptical, kilometric scale body on the Southeast, as well as sheets in micashists. They are classified as gabbronorites to monzonites, with the two pyroxenes and biotite, besides subordinated amounts of amphibole, sphene, ilmenite and allanite. These rocks do not show a well-defined geochemical trend, however they may possibly represent a monzonitic (shoshonitic) series. Their REE spectra have negative europium anomalies and REE contents greater than the other suites. The aluminous granitoids are volumetrically restricted, and have been observed in close association with migmatised micashists bordering the gabbronorite pluton. They are composed of almandine-rich garnet, andalusite, biotite and muscovite, and are akin to the peraluminous suites. Rb-Sr (whole rock) and Sm-Nd (whole-rock and mineral) isotopes furnished a minimum estimate of the crystallization (578±14 Ma) and the final resetting age of the Rb-Sr system (536±4 Ma) in the Caxexa Pluton. The aluminous granitoid has a Sm-Nd garnet age similar to that one of the Caxexa Pluton, that is 574±67 Ma. The strong interaction of shear bands and pegmatite dykes favoured the opening of the Rb-Sr system for the Caxexa Pluton and biotite microgranite. The amphibole-plagioclase geothermometer and the Al-in amphibole geobarometer indicate minimum conditions of 560°C and 7 kbar for the Cabeçudo Pluton, 730°C and 6 kbar for the microgranite and 743°C and 5 kbar for the basic to intermediate suite. The Zr saturation geothermometer reveals temperatures of respectively 855°C, 812°C and 957°C for those suites, whereas the Caxexa Pluton shows temperatures of around 757°C. The Caxexa, Cabeçudo and microgranites suites crystallized under high fO2 (presence of magnetite). On the other hand, the occurrence of ilmenite suggests less oxidant conditions in the basic to intermediate suite. Field relations demonstrate the intrusive character of the granitoids into a tectonically relatively stable continental crust. This is corroborated by petrographic and geochemical data, which suggest a late- or post-collisional tectonic context. It follows that the generation and emplacement of those granitoid suites is related to the latest events of the Brasiliano orogeny. Finally, the relationships between eNd (600 Ma), TDM (Nd) and initial Sr isotope ratio (ISr) do not permit to define the precise sources of the granitoids. Nevertheless, trace element modelling and isotopic comparisons suggest the participation of the metasomatised mantle in the generation of these suites, probably modified by different degrees of crustal contamination. In this way, a metasomatised mantle would not be a particular characteristic of the Neoproterozoic lithosphere, but a remarkable feature of this portion of the Borborema Province since Archaean and Paleoproterozoic times.

Petrologia do plúton Serra da Macambira, neoproterozóico da faixa seridó, província Borborema (NE do Brasil)

The final stage of Brasiliano/Pan-African orogeny in the Borborema Province is marked by widespread plutonic magmatism. The Serra da Macambira Pluton is an example of such plutonism in Seridó Belt, northeastern Borborema Province, and it is here subject of geological, petrographic, textural, geochemical and petrogenetic studies. The pluton is located in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, intrusive into Paleoproterozoic orthogneisses of the Caicó Complex and Neoproterozoic metassupracrustal rocks of the Seridó Group. Based upon intrusion/inclusion field relationships, mineralogy and texture, the rocks are classified as follows: intermediate enclaves (quartz-bearing monzonite and biotite-bearing tonalite), porphyritic monzogranite, equigranular syenogranite to monzogranite, and late granite and pegmatite dykes. Porphyritic granites and quartz-bearing monzonites represent mingling formed by the injection of an intermediate magma into a granitic one, which had already started crystallization. Both rocks are slightly older than the equigranular granites. Quartz-bearing monzonite has K-feldspar, plagioclase, biotite, hornblende and few quartz, meanwhile biotite-bearing tonalite are rich in quartz, poor in K-feldspar and hornblende is absent. Porphyritic and equigranular granites display mainly biotite and rare hornblende, myrmekite and pertitic textures, and zoned plagioclase pointing out to the relevance of fractional crystallization during magma evolution. Such granites have Rare Earth Elements (REE) pattern with negative Eu anomaly and light REE enrichment when compared to heavy REE. They are slight metaluminous to slight peraluminous, following a high-K calc-alkaline path. Petrogenesis started with 27,5% partial melting of Paleoproterozoic continental crust, generating an acid hydrous liquid, leaving a granulitic residue with orthopyroxene, plagioclase (An40-50), K-feldspar, quartz, epidote, magnetite, ilmenite, apatite and zircon. The liquid evolved mainly by fractional crystallization (10-25%) of plagioclase (An20), biotite and hornblende during the first stages of magmatic evolution. Granitic dykes are hololeucocratic with granophyric texture, indicating hypabissal crystallization and REE patterns similar to A-Type granites. Preserved igneous textures, absence or weak imprint of ductile tectonics, association with mafic to intermediate enclaves and alignment of samples according to monzonitic (high-K calcalkaline) series all indicate post-collisional to post-orogenic complexes as described in the literature. Such interpretation is supported by trace element discrimination diagrams that place the Serra da Macambira pluton as late-orogenic, probably reflecting the vanishing stages of the exhumation and collapse of the Brasiliano/Pan-African orogen.

Desenvolvimento de pastas cimentantes contendo nanossílica como material estendedor para aplicação em fases iniciais, de poços petrolíferos, submetidas à baixa temperatura (5°c ± 3ºc)

The improved performance of hydraulic binders, the base of Portland cement, consists in the careful selection and application of materials that promote greater durability and reduced maintenance costs There is a wide variety of chemical additives used in Portland cement slurries for cementing oil wells. These are designed to work in temperatures below 0 ° C (frozen areas of land) to 300 ° C (thermal recovery wells and geothermal); pressure ranges near ambient pressure (in shallow wells) to greater than 200 MPa (in deep wells). Thus, additives make possible the adaptation of the cement slurries for application under various conditions. Among the materials used in Portland cement slurry, for oil wells, the materials with nanometer scale have been applied with good results. The nanossílica, formed by a dispersion of SiO2 particles, in the nanometer scale, when used in cement systems improves the plastic characteristics and mechanical properties of the hardened material. This dispersion is used commercially as filler material, modifier of rheological properties and / or in recovery processes construction. It is also used in many product formulations such as paints, plastics, synthetic rubbers, adhesives, sealants and insulating materials Based on the above, this study aims to evaluate the performance of nanossílica as extender additive and improver of the performance of cement slurries subjected to low temperatures (5 ° C ± 3 ° C) for application to early stages of marine oil wells. Cement slurries were formulated, with densities 11.0;12.0 and 13.0 ppg, and concentrations of 0; 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5%. The cement slurries were subjected to cold temperatures (5 ° C ± 3 ° C), and its evaluation performed by tests rheological stability, free water and compressive strength in accordance with the procedures set by API SPEC 10A. Thermal characterization tests (TG / DTA) and crystallographic (XRD) were also performed. The use of nanossílica promoted reduction of 30% of the volume of free water and increased compression resistance value of 54.2% with respect to the default cement slurry. Therefore, nanossílica presented as a promising material for use in cement slurries used in the early stages of low-temperature oil wells

Predição de séries temporais de parâmetros de redes HSPA - WCDMA

With the growing demand of data traffic in the networks of third generation (3G), the mobile operators have attempted to focus resources on infrastructure in places where it identifies a greater need. The channeling investments aim to maintain the quality of service especially in dense urban areas. WCDMA - HSPA parameters Rx Power, RSCP (Received Signal Code Power), Ec/Io (Energy per chip/Interference) and transmission rate (throughput) at the physical layer are analyzed. In this work the prediction of time series on HSPA network is performed. The collection of values of the parameters was performed on a fully operational network through a drive test in Natal - RN, a capital city of Brazil northeastern. The models used for prediction of time series were the Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt, Holt Winters Additive and Holt Winters Multiplicative. The objective of the predictions of the series is to check which model will generate the best predictions of network parameters WCDMA - HSPA.

Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread