Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Espaços especiais em Natal (moradia e meio ambiente): um necessário diálogo entre direitos e espaços na perspectiva de proteção aos direitos fundamentais na cidade contemporânea

Some protected special spaces on behalf of fundamental rights to the environment and the housing at the city of Natal are fragile by facing actions and attempts to suppress and changing (or omission in the implementation) of standards in furtherance of those rights at the local level, which seems to reflect a situation that goes beyond the context of the city. Based on integrated approach of the housing rights and the environment and its protection of special spaces on the field of fundamental rights, the thesis seeks to understand the weaknesses that affect the legal state duty under the realization/implementation of fundamental rights to the environment and housing in cities, focusing on the issues of flexibility of the founding legislation of special spaces to the detriment of the attributes they protected and the lack of implementation of the legal system that allows their effectiveness. So, it looks initially to understand the environment and housing rights and their special protected areas in the brazilian legal system, looking forward the evolution of its legal protection, as well as the weaknesses that emerge in the field of their effectiveness. Analyzing the trajectory of the environment and housing rights and their special protected areas in Natal, considering its standards, attributes, protection indicators, weaknesses and negative evidence within its legal protections and their enforcement by state entity, this thesis proposes to verify the existence of forms to confronting the weaknesses founded in the maintenance of legal protection and its implementation. At this point it discusses the legal basis and safeguard instruments of protection, especially within the juridical field, as part of a (re)discussion about issues of legislative and administrative discretion in the face of objective legal state duty to realization/implementation of fundamental rights in the urban space. With all these issues together the thesis does not ignore the scenario where the dividing line between public and private (economic) are becoming ever more tenuous in the field of state action and where the city stands as a special commodity to the reproduction of real estate, according to the interests of capitalist logic

Ventilação e prescrições urbanísticas: uma aplicação simulada para a Orla da Praia do Meio em Natal/RN

This work analyses a study on natural ventilation and its relation to the urban legislation versus the building types in an urban fraction of coastal area of Praia do Meio in the city of Natal/RN, approaching the type or types of land use most appropriate to this limited urban fraction. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the present legislation as well as the types of buildings in this area on the natural ventilation. This urban fraction was selected because it is one of the sites from where the wind flows into the city of Natal. This research is based on the hypothesis stating that the reduction on the porosity of the urban soil (decrease in the set back/boundary clearance), and an increase in the form (height of the buildings) rise the level of the ventilation gradient, consequently causing a reduction on the wind speed at the lowest part of the buildings. Three-dimensional computational models were used to produce the modes of occupation allowed in the urban fraction within the area under study. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was also used to analyse the modes of land occupation. Following simulation, a statistical assessment was carried out for validation of the hypothesis. It was concluded that the reduction in the soil porosity as a consequence of the rates that defined the minimum boundary clearance between the building and the boundary of the plot (and consequently the set back), as well as the increase in the building form (height of the buildings) caused a reduction in the wind speed, thus creating heat islands

Meio ambiente e planejamento: a relação cidade-natureza nos Planos Urbanísticos da cidade de Natal no século XX

This research studies the relation between city and nature in the urbanity s plans from Natal RN, Brazil, during the 20th century. Investigates and analyses the main documents that bring environmental s ideas inside from the urbanity s plans of Natal; gives the historical and economical situation from the city in each period studied; features the urbanity s plans, using categories of analyses to comprehension of this instruments. Try to contribute in the bigger process of historical rescue of Natal, and stimulates new studies. It was used documental s research, and bibliographic material. It was identified four (04) kinds of plans: the ones that focus in health and aesthetic (1901, 1929, 1935) technology and science (1968), zoning and control (1974, 1984) and environment. The hints founded shows that environmental ideas were put inside of the plans by government demands, especially in 1994 s plan, almost always without popular contribution and without this population get understands its meanings and implications

Do acesso clássico à comercialização: especificidades do mercado imobiliário informal na área especial de interesse social de Mãe Luiza, Natal/ RN.

This study presents research regarding affordable housing and their effects on the spatial reconfiguration of Natal/ RN, aiming to identify the specificities of the informality of urban land. This study aims to understand how informal housing market operates housing provision for the population located in popular informal settlements, through buying and selling market and rental market of residential properties irregular / illegal. This understanding will be through the neighborhood of Mãe Luisa, Special Area of Social Interest (SASI), located between neighborhoods with a population of high purchasing power and inserted into the tourist shaft of seaside of town. The characterization of informal housing market in Mãe Luiza, from buyers, sellers and renters, will help to understand how these informal transactions operate on SASI and housing provision for public policy development and implementation of housing programs and land regularization for low-income population, adequate to dynamic and reality of housing of informal areas

Análise do licenciamento ambiental como instrumento de política do meio ambiente no Rio Grande do Norte Período 1992-2003

This analysis on the ambient licensing is based on a research that identifies the fragilities and advances of the application of this instrument of politics of the environment in the ambient politics of the Rio Grande do Norte, in the period of 1992 the 2003. The isolated urban area of Búzios, situated in the City of Nísia Floresta/RN, situated in the eastern coast of the State, where concentrates the boarding of the ambient question as a matter in the Brazilian process of urbanization, over all the institutionalization and implementation of the ambient licensing. They are distinguished in the used methodology in consultation to the diverse involved social segments with the ambient subject in study, the example of the managers, technician and specialists, as well as the application of the legislation and norms techniques, the forms of appropriation of the common wealth and the procedures of ambient licensing of the competent agencies. The results of the research designate that the ambient licensing while instrument of the ambient politics is one of the alternatives more efficient as techniques in the process of sustainable development, since it is beyond the prerogatives to conciliate the activities and enterprises with the conservation of the environmental resources and natural benefits to the societies. In the RN one evidenced progress in the ambient legislation and the instructions techniques, and that the imperfections and limitations in the system of ambient licensing are not directly on to the instruments, but in the implementation of mechanisms of the ambient agencies. This because they do not make use of operational structure to apply in practical and established abilities, as an ambient management, institutional joint and deliberations of the State Counselor for Environment

A organização do processo de projeto de arquitetura no meio profissional: uma análise da produção em escritórios

This paper examines, through case studies, the organization of the production process of architectural projects in architecture offices in the city of Natal, specifically in relation to building projects. The specifics of the design process in architecture, the production of the project in a professional field in Natal, are studied in light of theories of design and its production process. The survey, in its different phases, was conducted between March 2010 and September 2012 and aimed to identify, understand, and analyze comparatively, by mapping the design process, the organization of production of building projects in two offices in Natal, checking as well the relationships of their agents during the process. The project was based on desk research and exploration, adopting, for both, data collection tools such as forms, questionnaires, and interviews. With the specific aim of mapping the design process, we adopted a technique that allows obtaining the information directly from employee agents involved in the production process. The technique consisted of registering information by completing daily, during or at the end of the workday, an individual virtual agenda, in which all agent collaborators described the tasks performed. The data collected allowed for the identification of the organizational structure of the office, its hierarchy, the responsibilities of agents, as well as the tasks performed by them during the two months of monitoring at each office. The research findings were based on analyses of data collected in the two offices and on comparative studies between the results of these analyses. The end result was a diagnostic evaluation that considered the level of organization and elaborated this perspective, as well as proposed solutions aimed at improving both the organization of the process and the relationships between the agents under the lens analyzed

Análise por meio de espectroscopia de emissão óptica das espécies ativas em nitretação iônica e gaiola catódica

Plasma process like ionic nitriding and cathodic cage plasma nitriding are utilized in order to become hard surface of steels. The ionic nitriding is already accepted in the industry while cathodic cage plasma nitriding process is in industrial implementation stage. Those process depend of plasma parameters like electronic and ionic temperature (Te, Ti), species density (ne, ni) and of distribution function of these species. In the present work, the plasma used to those two processes has been observed through Optical Emission Spectroscopy OES technique in order to identify presents species in the treatment ambient and relatively quantify them. So plasma of typical mixtures like N2 H2 has been monitored through in order to study evolution of those species during the process. Moreover, it has been realized a systematic study about leaks, also thought OES, that accomplish the evolution of contaminant species arising because there is flux of atmosphere to inside nitriding chamber and in what conditions the species are sufficiently reduced. Finally, to describe the physic mechanism that acts on both coating techniques ionic nitriding and cathodic cage plasma nitriding

Estudo da sinterabilidade de ligas de níquel obtidas por meio dos portadores de liga sic, si3n4 ou si metálico com grafita

Nickel alloys are frequently used in applications that require resistance at high temperatures associated with resistance to corrosion. Alloys of Ni-Si-C can be obtained by means of powder metallurgy in which powder mixtures are made of metallic nickel powders with additions of various alloying carriers for such were used in this study SiC, Si3N4 or Si metal with graphite. Carbonyl Ni powder with mean particle size of 11 mM were mixed with 3 wt% of SiC powders with an average particle size of 15, 30 and 50 μm and further samples were obtained containing 4 to 5% by mass of SiC with average particle size of 15 μm. Samples were also obtained by varying the carrier alloy, these being Si3N4 powder with graphite, with average particle size of 1.5 and 5 μm, respectively. As a metallic Si graphite with average particle size of 12.5 and 5 μm, respectively. The reference material used was nickel carbonyl sintered without adding carriers. Microstructural characterization of the alloys was made by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy with semi-quantitative chemical analysis. We determined the densities of the samples and measurement of microhardness. We studied the dissociation of carriers alloy after sintering at 1200 ° C for 60 minutes. Was evaluated also in the same sintering conditions, the influence of the variation of average particle size of the SiC carrier to the proportion of 3% by mass. Finally, we studied the influence of variation of the temperatures of sintering at 950, 1080 and 1200 ° C without landing and also with heights of 30, 60, 120 and 240 minutes for sintering where the temperature was 950 °C. Dilatometry curves showed that the SiC sintered Ni favors more effectively than other carriers alloy analyzed. SiC with average particle size of 15 μm active sintering the alloy more effectively than other SiC used. However, with the chemical and morphological analyzes for all leagues, it was observed that there was dissociation of SiC and Si3N4, as well as diffusion of Si in Ni matrix and carbon cluster and dispersed in the matrix, which also occurred for the alloys with Si carriers and metallic graphite. So the league that was presented better results containing Si Ni with graphite metallic alloy as carriers, since this had dispersed graphite best in the league, reaching the microstructural model proposed, which is necessary for material characteristic of solid lubricant, so how we got the best results when the density and hardness of the alloy

Síntese de nanopartículas de magnetita via decomposição térmica em meio não-aquoso

This work aims at obtaining nanoparticles of iron oxide, the magnetite one (Fe3O4), via synthesis by thermal decomposition through polyol. Thus, two routes were evaluated: a simple decomposition route assisted by reflux and a hydrothermal route both without synthetic air atmosphere using a synthesis temperature of 260ºC. In this work observed the influence of the observe of surfactants which are generally applied in the synthesis of iron oxide nanoparticles decreasing cluster areas. Further, was observed pure magnetite phase without secondary phases generally found in the iron oxide synthesis, a better control of crystallite size, morphology, crystal structure and magnetic behavior. Finally, the introduction of hydroxyl groups on the nanoparticles surface was analyzed besides its employment in the polymer production with OH radicals. The obtained materials were characterized by XRD, DLS, VSM, TEM, TG and DSC analyses. The results for the magnetite obtainment with a particle size greater than 5 nm and smaller than 11 nm, well defined morphology and good magnetic properties with superparamagnetic behavior. The reflux synthesis was more efficient in the deposition of the hydroxyl groups on the nanoparticles surface

Estudo da viabilidade do processo de reciclagem do material descartado do sistema Zirkonzanh® de produção de próteses dentárias

At present, the material of choice for performing aesthetic dental prosthetic work is in the ceramic. Among them, the ceramic base of stabilized zirconia with 3% yttria (3Y - TZP) stand out for having excellent physical and mechanical properties. During the machining of blocks of zirconia in the laboratory to prepare the various types of prostheses, much of the material is given off in the form of powder, which is subsequently discarded. The waste of this material results in financial loss, reflecting higher final cost treatment for patients, as well as damage to the environment, thanks to the processes involved in the manufacture and disposal of the ceramic. This research, pioneered the recycling of zirconium oxide powder obtained during milling of dental crowns and bridges, we highlight the social and environmental aspects and aims to establish a protocol for the reuse of waste (powder of zirconia Zirkonzahn® system) discarded to obtain a new block of compacted zirconia to maintain the same mechanical and microstructural properties of commercial high-cost imported material. To compare with the commercial material, samples were uniaxially (20 MPa) and isostatically (100 MPa), and its mechanical and microstructural characterization was performed through tests of density, porosity, dilatometry, X-ray diffraction (XRD), hardness, fracture toughness, resistance to fracture electron microscopy (SEM) and analysis of grain size. The results observed in the samples were isostatically pressed similiares those obtained with samples from the commercial material demonstrating the viability of the process

Prevalência da infecção por HPV e perfil das mulheres frente ao exame de papanicolau no município de São José de Mipibú/RN.

The Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the major sexually transmitted disease all over the world. There are many factors associated to infection and the virus persistency in the organism. This study aims to evaluate the women's knowledge, attitudes and practice about the Papanicolaou test (Pap), as well as analyze the HPV and Chlamydia trachomatis infections prevalences in sexually active women from the city of São José do Mipibu/RN/Brazil. This research was divided in two steps (step I and step II), using different methodologies and samples each. The samples collected in each step, even socio-demographic or from uterus cervix, are from different patients e were analyzed separated. In step I was evaluated 267 rural and urban zone women s knowledge, attitudes and practices about the Pap by home interview. In the step II were included 605 women with age ranged from 15 to 71 years old, with mean of 33,5 years old and from each one were collected two cervical samples, one for Pap and other for molecular biology, beside the epidemiological interview to investigate the correlation between prevalence of HPV infection and risk factors. To molecular analyses, the samples were processed using a mammal rapid DNA extraction technique protocol. For C. trachomatis DNA detection were used the CP24/27 primers, and GP5+/GP6+ to HPV. PCR products were analyzed by electrophoresis on 8% polyacrylamide gels, followed by silver staining. The results of the step I showed that, in spite of only 46,1% of the interviewed women they have demonstrated to possess appropriate knowledge on the Pap test, the attitude and practice proportions were significantly larger, 63,3% and 64,4% respectively. The largest education degree presented association with adaptation of the knowledge, attitudes and practice, while neglect, lack of solicitation of the exam for the doctor and shame, came as main barriers for the accomplishment of the exam. In the stage II the HPV general prevalence was 28,9%, being 26,7% in the women with normal cytology or benign alterations, 26,7% in the ones that had atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and 80% in those with Low grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). the HPV infection prevalence was larger in the patients with up to 30 years of age and in the unmarried women, and those that had more than one sexual partner presented larger infection risk. The results show that the sexual relationship with multiple partners increased the infection risk for HPV and consequently the possibility of the occurrence of lesions uterine cervix

Modelos matemáticos para estimativa do consumo máximo de oxigênio pela ventilometria de esforço em indivíduos saudáveis

The relation between metabolic demand and maximal oxygen consumption during exercise have been investigated in different areas of knowledge. In the health field, the determination of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is considered a method to classify the level of physical fitness or the risk of cardiocirculatory diseases. The accuracy to obtain data provides a better evaluation of functional responses and allows a reduction in the error margin at the moment of risk classification, as well as, at the moment of determination of aerobic exercise work load. In Brasil, the use of respirometry associated to ergometric test became an opition in the cardiorespiratory evaluation. This equipment allows predictions concerning the oxyredutase process, making it possible to identify physiological responses to physical effort as the respiratory threshold. This thesis focused in the development of mathematical models developed by multiple regression validated by the stepwise method, aiming to predict the VO2max based on respiratory responses to physical effort. The sample was composed of a ramdom sample of 181 healthy individuals, men and women, that were randomized to two groups: regression group and cross validation group (GV). The voluntiars were submitted to a incremental treadmill test; objetiving to determinate of the second respiratory threshold (LVII) and the Peak VO2max. Using the método forward addition method 11 models of VO2max prediction in trendmill were developded. No significative differences were found between the VO2max meansured and the predicted by models when they were compared using ANOVA One-Way and the Post Hoc test of Turkey. We concluded that the developed mathematical models allow a prediction of the VO2max of healthy young individuals based on the LVII

Confiabilidade interobservador da escala do equilíbrio de Berg entre fisioterapeutas com extensa e escassa prática clínica

This study aimed at assessing the interobserver reliability of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS). The assessment was made by physiotherapists with extensive or little clinical experience in non-institutionalized elderly individuals. Participants comprised 12 elderly subjects (10 women and 2 men) with mean ages of 75.8 ± 8.4 years (range = 63-87) and 18 physiotherapists with varying clinical experience. Inter-examiner reliability obtained for each scale item yielded weighted kappa value > 0.75 in 11 of the 14 items (varying from 0.37 to 1.0). The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the total sum of BBS scores between the two groups of physiotherapists was 0.996 (95% confidence interval, 0.987 0.999) with a Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.996. We found no difference between the rater groups when we compared the sum score means obtained with the student s T-test (p = 0.86). Although some items had low reliability values, in general our results suggest that the Brazilian Version of the BBS showed good levels of interrater reliability and agreement when used by physiotherapists with different clinical practice levels and without previous training on non-institutionalized elderly patients. We concluded that the BBS can be useful as an important evaluation instrument on a protocol for Rehabilitation clinics. It may be used by various health professionals, as: Physicians, Physical therapists, Physical educators, Occupational therapists, Nurses and Phonoaudiologists, so confirming the interdisciplinary character of this study

Infecção hospitalar associada ao uso de cateter venoso central e a quebra de protocolos pelos profissionais de saúde na UTI de um hospital universitário em Natal/RN

This is a study descriptive cross-sectional and quantitative approaches, which aimed to analyze the association between hospital infection rate for insertion, maintenance of central venous catheter and the breakdown of protocols (rules and routines) by health professionals assisting patients in the ICU of a university hospital in Natal / RN. The process of data collection was through observation with structured form, refers to medical records and structured questionnaires with health professionals. The results were organized, tabulated, categorized and analyzed using SPSS 14.0. The characterization of the subjects was performed using descriptive and inferential statistics, taking into account the nature of the variables, with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Spearman correlation test, it was a discussion of the information obtained, considering the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variance and standard error. The variables that showed a higher level of correlation were treated with the application of significance tests. As the results, 71% of participants were female and 29% male, age ranged from 18 to 85 years (52.6 ± 22.5). The insertion, there was a variation from 0 to 5 errors (1.2 ± 1.4), during maintenance, the average was 2.3 ± 0.9 errors, ranging from 0 to 4. During the insertion and maintenance of CVC, patients who had been an infection ranging from 2 to 9 mistakes (4.2 ± 1.7), since those who did not show the variation goes from 0 to 5 errors (2, 8 ± 1.5). The correlation coefficient between the risk of infection throughout the process and the risk of infection at the insertion showed strong and significant (r = 0.845 p = 0.000) and in relation to risk of infection in maintenance was moderate and significant (r = 0.551 p = 0.001). The mistakes made by professionals in the procedures for insertion and maintenance of the catheter, associated with other conditions, shown as a risk factor for the of IH