Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

A percepção da fiscalização dos contratos de mão de obra terceirizada pelos agentes envolvidos nesse processo no âmbito da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte: uma análise sob o modelo do principal-agente

Outsourcing has emerged as one of the new ways of guiding the work. For its advantages and be consistent with the paradigms of managerial reform, outsourcing also started to be used in the Public Administration. However, taking into account the particularities of the latter, some issues are relevant when outsourcing concluded with the State. Gains notoriety, for example, the step of monitoring these contracts, to the extent that, from this activity, we can avoid the negative effects of outsourcing like the fact that the state will pay for labor and wage liens that are obligation of the company providing the services. This study aims to understand the perception that this process is under the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, from the point of view of different stakeholders, also explaining the motivations that these agents have to perform the supervisory process. As a theoretical basis was used the Agency Theory, which reinforces the supervisory activities as a necessary means to minimize moral hazard and adverse selection, seeking to understand not only the different motivations tax contracts to properly perform their duties, but also analyze other phenomena arising from this contractual relationship. To achieve the proposed objectives, were taken a literature review and a presentation of how to organize the management and oversight of contracts in UFRN. The methodological procedures included questionnaires and interviews with those involved in the process. After analyzing the results obtained in the survey instruments , and also based on the laws, regulations and instructions governing the procurement process within the UFRN, it was concluded that the process of overseeing the outsourcing of labor contracts in UFRN is not fully institutionalized, some points should be strengthened in order to have the consolidation of this process, highlighting the need for training of UFRN servers that act as tax, the knowledge that the contractual penalties are applied effectively, the need that there is a supervisor of tax of contractors and also the realization of the rotation system of outsourced employees

O Processo de revisão do benefício de prestação continuada-BPC: uma lógica de exclusão ou inclusão social

This research comprises a study about the social assessment performed by the Social Worker in the review process of the Benefit of Continued Installment. The Benefit of Continued Installment was implemented in 1996 and guarantees a minimum salary to the deficiency person and to an elder with sixty five years or more and that proves not to have ways to support neither himself/herself nor his/her own family. It is a demand to include in the BPC that the maximum income of a family does not exceed ¼ of minimum salary and that every two years this benefit to be revised to evaluate its continuity based in its original conditions. This study was carried out in the municipality of Natal/RN, with thirteen social workers, being the collection of data performed through interviews and social assessments of the users that count with the benefit. The results show that the users selected by the criterion of the income, present a profile of poverty and deprivations demonstrated through several situations survived in its daily life, indicative of vulnerability. It was demonstrated that the Social workers has relative autonomy in the evaluations along with the users and that it denotes the necessity of inclusion. However, by following the imposed criteria, it corroborates with the logic of exclusion. So, it is identified in the Municipality of Natal/RN, following the orientation given the politics of social work at national level, the implementation of revision of the BPC, for the social workers, from rigorous processes of selection and exclusions

A releitura de um documento: o processo de tombamento do centro histórico de Natal (RN)

During over seven decades of institutionalizing the national heritage protection legal instrument it can be noticed the many ways of the instrument application, according to the approaches that were assigned to the spaces with heritage values and the dynamic of the elaborated thoughts within this theme. For the application of the instrument effectively, there is a long process that is carried out. This process begins with the study elaboration that aims to subsidize and justify the motivation of property protection, as well as the proposal of buffer zones and national protection areas delimitations, completing the process with the denial of the request or with the publication of the definitive national protection area at the Official Gazette. Starting with the relation between the existing heritage values identification into the historical centres and the definition of its protection areas that the area management will be done, based as well into the management intervention norms established for the protection area perimeter. From this context, the present essay has as porpoise to discuss the approach used for the identification and selection of a historical centre liable for national protection and the repercussion of this identification into the national protection area the was established, using a case study of the national protection of the historical centre of the city of Natal. Starting from the assumption that there are inconsistences and distortions about the text speech of the written document and the spatial delimitation of this document, motivated by an area that privileges the edifications rather than the urban space. Beginning with the urban history methodology, we are based on the precepts of Rossi (2011), Lamas (2010) and Cullen (2009) for that space reading, along with what Sant’Anna (2004) defines as “city-document” to make a new reading of this “heritage value space” verifying if the proposed protection area reflects what is defined as motivation for the national protection area process during the recognizing process. Therefore, it is concluded that it is essential that the buffer zones and the national protection areas are aligned with the text presented at the national protection area instruction, so the norms and criteria definition management process are established. We highlight that a site management and the identified values protection become very difficult without a specific law that beacon the decisions that should be taken.

Uma aplicação do método fuzzy-electre-topsis para seleção de serviços de computação em nuvem

This work presents an application of a hybrid Fuzzy-ELECTRE-TOPSIS multicriteria approach for a Cloud Computing Service selection problem. The research was exploratory, using a case of study based on the actual requirements of professionals in the field of Cloud Computing. The results were obtained by conducting an experiment aligned with a Case of Study using the distinct profile of three decision makers, for that, we used the Fuzzy-TOPSIS and Fuzzy-ELECTRE-TOPSIS methods to obtain the results and compare them. The solution includes the Fuzzy sets theory, in a way it could support inaccurate or subjective information, thus facilitating the interpretation of the decision maker judgment in the decision-making process. The results show that both methods were able to rank the alternatives from the problem as expected, but the Fuzzy-ELECTRE-TOPSIS method was able to attenuate the compensatory character existing in the Fuzzy-TOPSIS method, resulting in a different alternative ranking. The attenuation of the compensatory character stood out in a positive way at ranking the alternatives, because it prioritized more balanced alternatives than the Fuzzy-TOPSIS method, a factor that has been proven as important at the validation of the Case of Study, since for the composition of a mix of services, balanced alternatives form a more consistent mix when working with restrictions.