22 resultados para Modelos bayesianos hierárquicos espaço-temporais
Resumo:
Recent astronomical observations (involving supernovae type Ia, cosmic background radiation anisotropy and galaxy clusters probes) have provided strong evidence that the observed universe is described by an accelerating, flat model whose space-time properties can be represented by the FriedmannRobertsonWalker (FRW) metric. However, the nature of the substance or mechanism behind the current cosmic acceleration remains unknown and its determination constitutes a challenging problem for modern cosmology. In the general relativistic description, an accelerat ing regime is usually obtained by assuming the existence of an exotic energy component endowed with negative pressure, called dark energy, which is usually represented by a cosmological constant ¤ associated to the vacuum energy density. All observational data available so far are in good agreement with the concordance cosmic ¤CDM model. Nevertheless, such models are plagued with several problems thereby inspiring many authors to propose alternative candidates in the relativistic context. In this thesis, a new kind of accelerating flat model with no dark energy and fully dominated by cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed. The number of CDM particles is not conserved and the present accelerating stage is a consequence of the negative pressure describing the irreversible process of gravitational particle creation. In order to have a transition from a decelerating to an accelerating regime at low redshifts, the matter creation rate proposed here depends on 2 parameters (y and ߯): the first one identifies a constant term of the order of H0 and the second one describes a time variation proportional to he Hubble parameter H(t). In this scenario, H0 does not need to be small in order to solve the age problem and the transition happens even if there is no matter creation during the radiation and part of the matter dominated phase (when the ß term is negligible). Like in flat ACDM scenarios, the dimming of distant type Ia supernovae can be fitted with just one free parameter, and the coincidence problem plaguing the models driven by the cosmological constant. ACDM is absent. The limits endowed with with the existence of the quasar APM 08279+5255, located at z = 3:91 and with an estimated ages between 2 and 3 Gyr are also investigated. In the simplest case (ß = 0), the model is compatible with the existence of the quasar for y > 0:56 whether the age of the quasar is 2.0 Gyr. For 3 Gyr the limit derived is y > 0:72. New limits for the formation redshift of the quasar are also established
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Resumo:
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Resumo:
In this work we study the Hidden Markov Models with finite as well as general state space. In the finite case, the forward and backward algorithms are considered and the probability of a given observed sequence is computed. Next, we use the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. In the general case, the kernel estimators are used and to built a sequence of estimators that converge in L1-norm to the density function of the observable process
Resumo:
In this work the landscape morphodynamics was used to check the strength and importance of the changes carried out by man on the environment over time, in Natal-RN municipality. The occupation of partially preserved natural areas was analyzed, but environmentally fragile, such as riparian forests, vegetation on the banks of waterways, which play regulatory role of the water flow, and the dunes, which guarantee the rapid recharge of aquifers. The impacts of urban sprawl in Natal Southern and West zones Were identified and characterized, through a detailed mapping in the period between 1969 and 2013 the main Permanent Preservation Areas - PPA (banks of rivers and lagoons, and dunes remaining) and their temporal changes. For this were used aerial photographs and satellite imagery, altimetry data, and pre-existing information, which allowed the creation of a spatial database, and evolution of maps of impervious areas, evolution of the use and occupation and Digital Terrain Model (DTM) from contour lines with contour interval of 1 meter. Based on this study presents a diagnosis of the environmental situation and the state of conservation of natural areas, over the last 44 years, compared to human pressures. In general, it was found that the urban settlement has advanced about 60% of studied natural areas. This advance was growing by the year 2006, when there was a slowdown in the process, except for the Environmental Protection Zone (EPZ) 03, where the river Pitimbú and your PPA, which experienced a more significant loss area. The urban occupation affected the natural drainage and contributed to the contamination of groundwater Natal, due to increased sealed area, the release of liquid and solid waste, as well as the removal of riparian vegetation. Changed irreversibly the natural landscape, and reduced the quality and quantity of water resources necessary for the population. Thus, it is necessary to stimulate the adoption of use and protection of PPA planning measures, to the preservation of the San Valley Region inserted into the EPZ 01, and integrate more remaining dunes, in good condition, this EPZ, due to the importance of those remaining on the environment and the maintenance of quality of life. It is suggested, also, protection of catchment areas, such as PPA ponds and Pitimbú River. Finally, it is expected that this study can assist the managers in making decisions in urban and environmental planning of the municipality
Resumo:
With the growing demand of data traffic in the networks of third generation (3G), the mobile operators have attempted to focus resources on infrastructure in places where it identifies a greater need. The channeling investments aim to maintain the quality of service especially in dense urban areas. WCDMA - HSPA parameters Rx Power, RSCP (Received Signal Code Power), Ec/Io (Energy per chip/Interference) and transmission rate (throughput) at the physical layer are analyzed. In this work the prediction of time series on HSPA network is performed. The collection of values of the parameters was performed on a fully operational network through a drive test in Natal - RN, a capital city of Brazil northeastern. The models used for prediction of time series were the Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt, Holt Winters Additive and Holt Winters Multiplicative. The objective of the predictions of the series is to check which model will generate the best predictions of network parameters WCDMA - HSPA.
Resumo:
The present work develops a methodology to establish a 3D digital static models petroleum reservoir analogue using LIDAR and GEORADAR technologies. Therefore, this work introduce The methodolgy as a new paradigm in the outcrop study, to purpose a consistent way to integrate plani-altimetric data, geophysics data, and remote sensing products, allowing 2D interpretation validation in contrast with 3D, complexes depositional geometry visualization, including in environmental immersive virtual reality. For that reason, it exposes the relevant questions of the theory of two technologies, and developed a case study using TerraSIRch SIR System-3000 made for Geophysical Survey Systems, and HDS3000 Leica Geosystems, using the two technologies, integrating them GOCAD software. The studied outcrop is plain to the view, and it s located at southeast Bacia do Parnaíba, in the Parque Nacional da Serra das Confusões. The methodology embraces every steps of the building process shows a 3D digital static models petroleum reservoir analogue, provide depositional geometry data, in several scales for Simulation petroleum reservoir