Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Com quantas ave-marias se faz uma santa? relicário de vozes sobre a santa menina

Ce travail a comme objectif analyser la structure et l'efficacité d'un système symbolique, qui est configuré à travers qui le philosophe Dufour (2000), à partir du linguiste Benveniste (1995) et du philosophe Lyotard (1998), dans la manutention et la sustentation des récits et d'histoires, appelle de trinité naturel des la langue. C'est sous cet appareil, inscrit à travers des pronomes « moi », « toi » et « lui » qui nous étudierons les suivantes questions: 1. comme s'il établit, synchronement, la mise à jour du mythe religieux Santa Menina présente dans la ville de Florânia, gêné dans le coeur broussard du Rio Grande do Norte? 2. qui manière, diachronement, les récits sur mentionné mythe s´il récupère? Le culte religieux à la Santa Menina est marqué discoursivement à travers d´un univers à facettes multiples qui se soutient à travers les voix de floranienses sur l'histoire d'une fille, dont le corps est trouvé intact et qui, sacralitée par la population, est connu comme la Santa Menina. Une histoire qui, notamment, avait/a répercussion et résonance, en participant, efficacement, des la réalité culturelle des la population. Théoriquement, notre travail est nourri par des savoirs arrivés, des la Linguistique, et des études sur la Mémoire et l'Histoire Verbale

Contribuições para a detecção e identificação de faltas em inversores Multiníveis

This work presents contributions in the detection and identication of faults in multilevel inverters through the study of the converters behavior under these operation conditions. Basically, the approached fault consists of an open-circuit in any switch of a three-level clamped diode inverter. The converter operation is characterized in the pre and post-fault states. A wave form behavior analysis of the pole voltage, phase current and dc-bus current is also done, which highlights characteristics that allow the detection of failure and, even, under favorable conditions, the identication of the faulty device. A compensation strategy of the approached fault (open-switch) is also investigated with the purpose of maintaining the driving system operational when a failure occurs. The proposed topology uses SCRs in parallel with the internal switches of the inverter, which allows, in some occasions, the full utilization of the dc-bus

HIV/AIDS: um perfil epidemiológico do vírus e uma análise das práticas seguras, conhecimento e percepção de mulheres

In recent decades, the debate surrounding the consequences of the HIV has passed by great changes. Earlier, prevention campaigns focused risk groups then risk behaviors and ultimately vulnerability. Furthermore, over the years, the dimensions of HIV that emerged in the social environment are these: internalization, heterosexualization, impoverishment and feminization. Based on these contexts, the composition of this study comprises two papers: the former has the overall objective to analyze the epidemiology and incidence of HIV in Brazilian regions in the period from 1980 to 2012; the latter, it aims to find out whether there is the relationship among safe practices, knowledge and perception of women residents in Manaus and Boa Vista cities on the infection by HIV. In paper 1, it was used information from the Health Ministry, as a data source. Besides, it was developed an exploratory and spatial analysis of incidence rates and relative proportion of notified cases. In paper 2, was used as a source of data, the research "Evaluating the process of spatial and epidemic diffusion of HIV in the federal units of Brazil-Northern Region" in 2008. Furthermore, Statistical Techniques of Cluster Analysis, Analysis of Variance, Chi-Square and Logistic Regression were applied. In this paper, it was found that, in Brazilian Regions, the prevalence of reported cases occurred among heterosexuals in men 20-40 year age group and residing in metropolitan areas. It was observed a significant spatial correlation of the incidence rate of reported cases of HIV. It was also noted by the results that have good knowledge and awareness about HIV does not imply, essentially, in a safe sexual intercourse. These results have shown the need public policies geared to the guiding of society, based in educational strategies aiming both information about the virus and its prevention, as well as public awareness for safe sex practices or in stable or not intercourses

A constituição desmilitarizada: democratização e reforma do sistema constitucional de segurança pública

The normative construction of the public security system in the Constituent Assembly of 1987-1988 preserved paradoxical normative space, the military police linked to the Army with a restrictive legal statute of the police offices citizenship through a hierarchical and disciplinary model that is anachronistic. This research originates from the following problem: How is it possible to tailor the constitutional system of public safety, specifically the Military Police, according to the democratic paradigms constructed by the Constituent from 1988 and carry the right to public safety under these molds? The militarists limitations of the Constitution allowed the growing militarization of police departments, organizational culture and authoritarian institutional practices. Underlying this, the problems related to difficulties in realization of Right to Public Safety, the strikes of the military police, the incomplete policy cycle started demanding from the constitutional-legal system appropriate responses. Utilizing the dialogical method and an interdisciplinary approach to the subject, and theoretically grounded in overcoming of the constitutional normativist juspositivism.It was found that the constructed infraconstitutional legislation was insufficient to supply the systemic shortcomings of constitutional law, when looking to create a single system of public security without giving due scope to the federal principle and expand the autonomy the Federated States, and even grant democratic legal status to the military police. Formal legal limits imposed by the Constitution constructed a legal anachronism, the military police. Thus, a democratic reading of military police institutions becomes inconceivable its existence in the constitutional regulatory environment. Thus, reform the Constitution in order to demilitarize the police and conduct a normative redesign of the public security system is fundamental to Brazilian constitutional democracy

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Análise da eficácia de um refrigerador doméstico com condensador modificado: revestimento com meio poroso dissipativo

The development of home refrigerators generally are compact and economic reasons for using simplified configuration. The thermodynamic coefficient of performance ( COP ) is limited mainly in the condenser design for reasons of size and arrangement ( layout ) of the project ( design ) and climatic characteristics of the region where it will operate. It is noteworthy that this latter limitation is very significant when it comes to a country of continental size like Brazil with diverse climatic conditions. The COP of the cycle depends crucially on the ability of heat dissipated in the condenser. So in hot climates like the northeast, north, and west-central dispel ability is highly attenuated compared to the south and southeast regions with tropical or subtropical climates when compared with other regions. The dissipation in compact capacitors for applications in domestic refrigeration has been the focus of several studies, that due to its impact on reducing costs and power consumption, and better use of the space occupied by the components of refrigeration systems. This space should be kept to a minimum to allow an increase in the useful storage volume of refrigerator without changing the external dimensions of the product. Due to its low cost manufacturing, wire on tube condensers continue to be the most advantageous option for domestic refrigeration. Traditionally, these heat exchangers are designed to operate under natural convection. Not always, the benefits of greater compactness of capacitors for forced outweigh the burden of pumping air through the external heat exchanger. In this work we propose an improvement in convective condenser changing it to a transfer mechanism combined in series with conductive pipes and wire to a moist convective porous medium and the porous medium to the environment. The porous media used in the coating was composed of a gypsum plaster impregnated fiber about a mesh of natural cellulosic molded tubular wire mesh about the original structure of the condenser , and then dried and calcined to greater adherence and increased porosity. The proposed configuration was installed in domestic refrigeration system ( trough ) and tested under the same conditions of the original configuration . Was also evaluated in the dry condition and humidified drip water under natural and forced with an electro - fan ( fan coil ) convection. Assays were performed for the same 134- refrigerant charge e under the same thermal cooling load. The performance was evaluated in various configurations, showing an improvement of about 72 % compared with the original configuration proposed in humidification and natural convection.

Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Análise de tendência e caracterização sazonal e interanual da evapotranspiração de referência para o sudoeste da amazônia brasileira: Acre, Brasil

The objective of this research was to investigate monthly climatological, seasonal, annual and interdecadal of the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in Acre state in order to better understand its spatial and temporal variability and identify possible trends in the region. The study was conducted with data from Rio Branco municipalities, the state capital, Tarauacá and Cruzeiro do Sul considering a 30-year period (1985-2014), from monthly data from weather stations surface of the National Institute of Meteorology. The methodology was held, first, the consistency of meteorological data. Thus, it was made the gap filling in the time series by means of multivariate techniques. Subsequently were performed statistical tests trend (Mann-Kendall) and homogeneity, by Sen's estimator of the magnitude of this trend is estimated, as well as computational algorithms containing parametric and non-parametric tests for two samples to identify from that year the trend has become significant. Finally, analysis of variance technique (ANOVA) was adopted in order to verify whether there were significant differences in average annual evapotranspiration between locations. The indirect method of Penman-Montheith parameterized by FAO was used to calculate the ETo. The results of this work through examination of the descriptive statistics showed that the ETo the annual average was 3.80, 2.92 and 2.86 mm day-1 year, to Rio Branco, Tarauacá and Cruzeiro do Sul, respectively. Featuring quite remarkable seasonal pattern with a minimum in June and a maximum in October, with Rio Branco to town one with the strongest signal (amplitudes) on the other hand, the Southern Cross presented the highest variability among the studied locations. By ANOVA it was found that the average annual statistically different for a significance level of 1% between locations, but the annual average between Cruzeiro do Sul and Tarauacá no statistically significant differences. For the three locations, the 2000s was the one with the highest ETo values associated with warmer waters of the North Atlantic basin and the 80s to lower values, associated with cooler waters of this basin. By analyzing the Mann-kendall and Sen estimator test, there was a trend of increasing the seasonal reference evapotranspiration (fall, winter and spring) on the order of 0.11 mm per decade and that from the years of 1990, 1996 and 2001 became statistically significant to the localities of Cruzeiro do Sul Tarauacá and Rio Branco, respectively. For trend analysis of meteorological parameters was observed positive trend in the 5% level of significance, for average temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation.

Filogenia molecular do gênero Morganella Zeller (Fungi, Basidiomycota) utilizando marcadores ITS

With the development and improvement of techniques for molecular studies and their subsequent application to the systematic, significant changes occurred in the classification of gasteroid fungi. The genus Morganella belongs to the family Lycoperdaceae, and is characterized mainly by lignicolous habit and presence of paracapilicium. Recent data demonstrate the discovery of new species for the group and the existence of a wide variety of species occurring in tropical ecosystems. However, the phylogenetic relationships of the genus, as well as the taxonomic classification, still require revisions to be better understood, the literature studies that address this issue are still very scarce. Thus, the objective of this study was to conduct studies of molecular phylogeny with species of the genus Morganella, to enhance understanding of the phylogeny of the group by including tropical species data. For this, the specimens used both for DNA extractions as for morphological review were obtained from Brazilian and foreign herbaria. For morphological analysis were observed characters relevant to the group's taxonomy. For phylogenetic analysis the Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analyzes were used, using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA. In phylogenetic analyzes, representatives from Morganella form a monophyletic clade with good support value and based on these results the genus should not be included as subgenus of Lycoperdon. The analysis indicated that M. pyriformis was not grouped with other representatives of Morganella, and therefore should not be included in the group as representative of Apioperdon subgenus because it is a Lycoperdon representative. Moreover, M. fuliginea, M. nuda, M. albostipitata, M. velutina, M. subincarnata are grouped with high support values within the genus Morganella. Morganella arenicola based on morphological and molecular studies does not aggregate in Morganella. Morganella nuda was grouped with M. fuliginea giving indications that can be treated as an intraspecific variation. The results of the analyzes favor to a better understanding of the species of Morganella. However, additional studies using a greater number of species, as well as other molecular markers are needed for a better understanding of the phylogenetic of Morganella.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

Determinação da condutividade do solo para agricultura: uma metodologia utilizando propagação de ondas AM

Agriculture is an essential activity to the human development, the tendency is that their need to increase according to the increase in world population. It is very important to take the maximum performance that is possible of each land without degrading it, a frequently monitoring is essential for the best performance. The purpose of this work is, nondestructively, to monitor the surface electrical conductivity of the soil in a demarcated area, as on a plantation, using low frequency radio waves. The conductivity is directly linked to the amount of water in the area and nutrients, therefore a periodic or even permanent monitoring increases significantly the efficient of the use of the soil. They will be used long-wave radio transmission or medium whose main characteristic to spread over the surface of the earth. It is possible to choose an AM radio with location, frequency and power of the transmission known or generate the signal. The studied method computes the conductivity of the ground in a straight line between two measured points, so it can be used in smaller or larger size fields. Measurements were carried out using an electromagnetic field strength analyzer. The data obtained in the measurements are processed by a numerical calculation program, in our case Matlab. It is concluded that the recommendations of the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) on the conductivity of soil in Brazil is far from reality, on some routes the recommendations indicate the use of the electrical conductivity of the soil 1 mS/m, while the measurements was found 19 mS/m. With the method described a precision farmer, once initial research for about a year, can monitor the humidity and salinity of the land, with the ability to predict the area and the most suitable time for irrigation and fertilization, making management more efficient and less expensive, while optimizing water use, natural resource increasingly precious.

A contribuição de técnicas modernas de reabilitação estrutural para autenticidade e integridade de edificações patrimoniais

This work discusses the study of the application of structural reinforcement and rehabilitation using modern techniques for interventions in repair works of historical buildings as well as the verification of the behavior of works that have already undergone different structural intervention techniques, with the objective of obtaining data to allow a comparative analysis of the advantages/disadvantages of techniques adapted in each case, regarding the interferences related the authenticity and integrity of the buildings belong to the constructed patrimony so as to obtain a basis for the theoretical foundation for choosing the best solution to be adopted in the case study which consists in an intervention of structural rehabilitation of the old historic building in the primary school "Augusto Severo"