Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Aspectos ambientais e sociais envolvidos na transmissão da L. chagasi no município de Parnamirim/RN

Visceral leishmaniasis hás adapted in the past 20 years to periurban and urban areas, and in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, it became endemic. Thid study aimed to evaluate the environmental and social aspectsof Leishmania chagasi infection and its epidemiologic transmission chain in an urban, periurban and rural area of Parnamirim-RN. A study with three sections was conducted: Section 1: Sectional study of the human and canine infection by L. chagasi and its environmental and social determinants. Section 2: Observational longitudinal cohort to evaluate the dynamics of the canine infection. Section 3: Longitudinal study to evaluate the behavior of Lu. Longipalpis vector and the seasonal factors related to its dynamics. To include in the study the hauses were randomly selected and georreferenciated. Montenegro skin test was done in the human population and blood samples were collected for anti-Leishmania antibody detection. The canine population was examinated for L. chagasi infection by RIFI, ELISA and ELISA for rK39. An entomologic surveillance was monthly done with CDC light trapsin 10 houses of each locality. Quantitative and qualitative analyses was done using STATISC 6.0. Probality and prediction maps were done using ArcGis 9.0 model. In the human population L. chagasi infection was associated with the area of the hause, age, sex, population densyti, vegetation, kind of the floor of thr hause, water and resides destiny. In the canine population L. chagasi infection was associated with the breed, size, time of living in the hause, presence of dogs in the neighborhood, presence of horses and donkeys in the neighborhood, vegetation, kind of the floor and walls of the hause. The human infection was associated with canine infction only when analyzed taking into account the locality. In the prospective study, serum conversion and antibody lost observed in 30,8% and 22% of the animals examined, respectively. The human infection rate by L. chagasi was 24,6%, by the presence of anti-Leishmania antibody and 38,6% by the Montenegro skin test. The canine infection rate 32,5% by the presence of anti-Leishmania antibody. The vector Lu longipalpis showed an atypical behavior. These results indicate that environmental and social factors are important variables associated with L. chagasi infection in humans and canines, with punctual association of thr last two. Control measures of the infection on the studied points are necessary, in the aim to reduce the endemic focus of the disease in the study area. This research was carried out in a multidisciplinary involving the categories of: doctor, biologist, veterinarian, statistical, pharmaceutical and biochemical

Escrever o movimento: o cinema itinerante como reinvenção de uma estética do viver

La tesis parte del presupuesto que el cine ofrece la imensa capacidad de entretejer de forma compleja realidad e imaginación. Con eso sugerimos que tal cual una "escuela de vida", según la definición de Edgar Morin (2003), el cine, por medio de sus producciones y exibiciones, pude ser capaz de operar un movimiento de reinvención de una estética del vivir en el espacio de lo improbable. De ahi surge la pregunta: ¿Cómo un fenómeno artístico, estético e imagético puede realizar tal movimiento? Tomando como referencia el guión de vida del personaje de la vida real José Isaias de Lucena Filho, más conocido por Zezeco, encontramos pistas de esa reinvención. Residente de una pequeña ciudad del interior de la província de Rio Grande do Norte, llamada Ouro Branco, en la década del 1960, se desplazó hacia el centro-sur de Brasil y retornó a su lugar de partida con la idea de trabajar proyectando peliculas. De manera singular y plural, este sujeto asumió el riesgo y la incertidumbre de enfrentar determinismos sociales, climáticos y culturales para proponer nuevas simbolizaciones por medio del cine itinerante. La presencia del séptimo arte en pequeñas ciudades de hábitos rurales marcadas por la miséria, el hambre, la negligéncia, el coronelismo político y los problemas climáticos, alteró escenários, actualizó mitos y proporcionó nuevas interacciones entre los sujetos. Zezeco entró en las cifras del éxodo rural y emigró hacia Rio de Janeiro, pero su éxodo fue cinematográfico, porque le sirvió como base para la inserción de efectos especiales fantásticos y poéticos en guiones de vidas inmersas en lo trivial y lo contingente. Tal cual un cinematógrafo vivo, capturó el escenário cultural efervescente de Rio de Janeiro y lo proyectó en la pequeña ciudad de Ouro Branco y en otras ciudades del interior de las províncias de Rio Grande do Norte y Paraiba. Con ello le atribuyó un nuevo uso a la vida de su lugar de partida y de retorno. Actuó en la ambiguedad, la ambivalencia y la complejidad entre el sapiens e el demens; real e imaginario; prosa y poesia de la vida; razón y pasión; racional y simbólico; lógico y mítico. El alcance de la investigación contempla entrevistas, memória, registros manuscritos y fotografías de colección particular de habitantes de la ciudad de Ouro Branco-RN. Como referenciales teóricos principales, tenemos las obras de Edgar Morin sobre el cine y de otros autores como Giorgio Agamben y Maria da Conceição de Almeida que expanden la comprensión sobre el entreejido de realidad e imaginación, vida e ideas

Família, aluno e professor: as forças tipológicas da educação básica na região metropolitana de Natal

This work was developed in the research line: "The habitus of study: builder of a new reality in the basic education of metropolitan area Natal" which is being developed with the support of CAPES by the Centre for Education. Acts, especially the problem of academic performance of students in basic education of the public in the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN). Thus, the aim of this paper is to construct a typology of students in the 9th year of basic education, attending the public schools (state or municipal) of MRN, 2009, and assess, according to these profiles, what personal characteristics student and their families: economic, social and cultural capital as well as teaching practices create environments capable of favoring a good educational development as measured by the performance obtained in the assessments in mathematics and English language. The data used were provided through the microdata Brazil Exam 2009 held by INEP. We used the methods Grade of Membership (GoM) for construction of profiles relevance of students according to the characteristics already mentioned. With these profiles was verified, which were effectively generating good performance in school curriculum components evaluated. The findings indicate that students belonging to the profile considered good environment, able to achieve better school performance both in Portuguese as in Mathematics, compared to the extreme profiles and adverse deficit

Biologia populacional comparada de duas espécies de heliconius (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) em um ambiente sazonal de floresta atlântica do nordeste brasileiro

Tropical environments often face strong seasonal variations in climate, such as alternate periods of dry and rain, that may often be important influence in the annual X the organisms lives. Here we assess how population dynamics of two butterfly species (Heliconius erato and Heliconius mepomene) respond to environmental and seasonal variations. A mark-release-recapture study carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve, 15 Km from Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, for 3 years, during the dry and rainy season, with three visits weekly done. Information such as species, wing lenght, site of capture, pollen load and phenotype (number of spots) (in H. erato only) were noted for each capture. Seasonal variation exists in capture rates of the two species, with great capture rates during the rainy season. Despite finding differences in the mean density of individuals of the two species among the different collection areas, this difference was only significant between floodplain and central areas, and no influence of seasonality was observed in the mean density between the areas. Seasonality in wing size was only observed for H. erato, with larger wings during the rainy season. Females carried larger pollen loads than males both species, but species were similar. Only males differed seasonally, with larger pollen loads during the rainy season. The distribution of the number of wing spots did not vary between the dry and rainy seasons, and the number of spots in males and females was similar. Therefore, we conclude that there was a strong influence of seasonal variation in the population dynamic of the two Heliconius species, as well as in several aspects of their biology

Uma fundamentação para sinais e sistemas intervalares

In this work we use Interval Mathematics to establish interval counterparts for the main tools used in digital signal processing. More specifically, the approach developed here is oriented to signals, systems, sampling, quantization, coding and Fourier transforms. A detailed study for some interval arithmetics which handle with complex numbers is provided; they are: complex interval arithmetic (or rectangular), circular complex arithmetic, and interval arithmetic for polar sectors. This lead us to investigate some properties that are relevant for the development of a theory of interval digital signal processing. It is shown that the sets IR and R(C) endowed with any correct arithmetic is not an algebraic field, meaning that those sets do not behave like real and complex numbers. An alternative to the notion of interval complex width is also provided and the Kulisch- Miranker order is used in order to write complex numbers in the interval form enabling operations on endpoints. The use of interval signals and systems is possible thanks to the representation of complex values into floating point systems. That is, if a number x 2 R is not representable in a floating point system F then it is mapped to an interval [x;x], such that x is the largest number in F which is smaller than x and x is the smallest one in F which is greater than x. This interval representation is the starting point for definitions like interval signals and systems which take real or complex values. It provides the extension for notions like: causality, stability, time invariance, homogeneity, additivity and linearity to interval systems. The process of quantization is extended to its interval counterpart. Thereafter the interval versions for: quantization levels, quantization error and encoded signal are provided. It is shown that the interval levels of quantization represent complex quantization levels and the classical quantization error ranges over the interval quantization error. An estimation for the interval quantization error and an interval version for Z-transform (and hence Fourier transform) is provided. Finally, the results of an Matlab implementation is given

Estudo da viabilidade da destilação solar para polimento de águas produzidas de petróleo

This work study of solar distillation feasibility in effluent of petroleum industry: produced water, making possible your reuse for irrigation of oleaginous cultures or fodder crops or in steam generation, as well the transport phenomena involved. The methodology for development of this project was to characterize the effluent to be treated and to accomplish physical and chemical analysis in the distilled, to build distillation equipment, concomitant operation of both equipments and implementation of data processing and economical evaluation. The methodology used for all parameters is outlined in APHA (1998) and sampling of the type compound. The feeding of distillation equipment was performed with treated effluent from UTPF of Guamaré. The temperature was monitored throughout the distillers and during the time of operation. The distillers feed occur, as a rule, for sifon. The distillers were operated by a period of 17 months between July 2007 and February 2009, in which 40 experiments were performed. The radiation and temperature datas were acquired in the INPE s site and the temperature inside of the distillers was registered by DATALOGGER Novus. The rates of condensation (mL / min) were determined by measuring of the flow in a graduate test tube of 10 mL and a chronometer. We used two simple solar effect distillers of passive type with different angles in coverage: 20 ° and 45 °. The results obtained in this study and the relevant discussions are divided into six topics: sample characterization and quality of distilled; construction of distillers; operation (data, temperature profile), climatic aspects, treatment of data and economical analysis. Results obtained can be inferred that: the energy loss by the adoption of vessel glass was not significant, however, complicates the logistics of maintenance the equipment on a large scale. In the other hand, the surface of the tub with a glass shield on the equipment deterioration, both devices showed similar performance, so there is not justified for use of equipment 450. With regard to the climatological study it was verified that the Natal city presents monthly medium radiation varying in a range between 350 and 600 W/m2, and medium of wind speed of 5 m / s. The medium humidity is around 70% and rainfall is very small. The regime of the system is transient and although it has been treated as a stationary system shows that the model accurately represents the distillers system's 20 degrees. The quality of the distilled with regard to the parameters evaluated in this study is consistent with the Class 3 waters of CONAMA (Resolution 357). Therefore we can conclude that solar distillation has viability for treat oilfield produced water when considered the technical and environmental aspects, although it is not economically viable

O efeito do regime hidrológico do semiárido na composição de espécies durante dominância de cianobactérias em um reservatório tropical

The potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms in water bodies are spread across the globe, resulting in the loss of water quality and adverse effects on human health. In arid and semiarid regions, the hydrologic regime characterized by an annual cycle of drought and rain, change the volume and the retention time of the reservoir. Such changes affect the limnological characteristics and causing changes in composition and biomass community of cyanobacteria. The reservoir Cruzeta (Zmax = 8.7 m) is a eutrophic water supply source located in the semiarid tropical (Northeast Brazil). Raised the hypothesis that the hydrological regime of semi-arid tropical is a determining factor in the availability of resources in eutrophic water sources, which influences the composition of dominant species of cyanobacteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in biomass and species composition of cyanobacteria for two annual hydrological cycles and evaluate factors drivers. The study was divided into five distinct periods (dry 2010, rain 2011, dry 2011, rain 2012, dry 2012). The dominant group found in all periods was Cyanobacteria (99% of total biomass), which contributed to the low diversity. The filamentous species Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii was present at both points in almost every study. The colonial species Microcystis panniformis and Sphaerocavum brasiliensis dominated only in periods with lower volumes of water. The diatoms contribute more to the biomass during the period of severe drought. The point near the dam (P1) had phytoplankton biomass larger than the point near the tributary (P2). The dominant species of colonial cyanobacteria lasted until the overflow in P1, and P2 this dominance was until the first rains. The redundancy analysis indicated that physical factors such as light availability and water level were the main factors driving the seasonal succession of phytoplankton. The composition of phytoplankton in spring was alternated by species of filamentous cyanobacteria in conditions of poor stability of the water column, such as Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii, and colonial species under conditions of high stability of the water column, such as Microcystis panniformis and Sphaerocavum brasiliensis. The extremes of torrential rains and severe droughts, governed by the hydrological regime of the semi-arid region led to the availability of resources in the watershed, directing the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton in the reservoir Cruzeta

Cartografias do desejo em asfalto selvagem - engraçadinha, seus amores e seus pecados: humor, erotismo e o pornógrafo no romance rodrigueano

Trata-se nesta dissertação de estabelecer, partindo do pensamento contemporâneo francês da linha deleuziana e guattariana, sobretudo, uma analítica do desejo capaz de reconfigurar o romance de Nelson Rodrigues, Asfalto selvagem: Engraçadinha, seus amores e seus pecados, desterritorializá-lo em relação à tradição crítica e estética, fundada no paradigma realista-naturalista enraizado no pensamento literário brasileiro, especificamente no século XX. Movemo-nos por discussões sobre o autor e sobre o romance, empreendidas por Rolnik, interlocutora de Guattari, o qual está ligado aos novos paradigmas estéticos, à questão da produção de subjetividades, à micropolítica, às multiplicidades e às minorias. Buscamos contribuir para esse redimensionamento, colocando-nos na perspectiva cartográfica e rizomática para surpreender, em Asfalto, seus processos de subjetivação, incidindo sobre as singularidades selvagens, considerando os conceitos de Foucault, aplicados à construção literária enquanto espaço heterotópico, configurando a experiência do fora, como princípios estéticos. Veremos que as personagens, com foco em Engraçadinha, funcionam, como pequenas máquinas desejantes, Corpos sem Órgãos, moléculas desestabilizando as formações molares. Destarte, Nelson Rodrigues, na perspectiva da produção autoral, torna-se o pornógrafo, o literato iterador, como agenciador de uma palavra perversa, para além dos dogmas, da cena romantizada, originando, em sua poética, a revelação da obs-cena, a obscenidade, como crítica às instituições falidas. Trazemos, nesse sentido, referências de Bataille, quanto ao que na atividade estética se relaciona com o excedente da visão, relacionados ao espaço tático-ótico, concepção deleuziana referentes ao corpo-linguagem, pornografia, pornógrafo, narrativas abomináveis. Acompanhamo-nos, pois, dos conceitos da problemática da diferença e da alteridade, repercutindo na larvaridade, nas afecções, que abrem vias comunicantes com fenômenos extremos, atuantes em torno do mesmo e do outro, trazendo a rizomaticidade do mal e da monstruosidade para a construção estética de Asfalto selvagem, vistos sob a ótica de Bataille, Deleuze, Baudrillard, em ensaios que rompem o olhar estrutural em torno da obra e oferecem subsídios para a construção de uma cartografia outra, o território do ficcional, habitado por um povo por vir, na perspectiva tratada por Deleuze e por Blanchot

Formação estelar desencadeada pela colisão entre nuvens moleculares magnetizadas

We use a finite diference eulerian numerical code, called ZEUS 3D, to do simulations involving the collision between two magnetized molecular clouds, aiming to evaluate the rate of star formation triggered by the collision and to analyse how that rate varies depending on the relative orientations between the cloud magnetic fields before the shock. The ZEUS 3D code is not an easy code to handle. We had to create two subroutines, one to study the cloud-cloud collision and the other for the data output. ZEUS is a modular code. Its hierarchical way of working is explained as well as the way our subroutines work. We adopt two sets of different initial values for density, temperature and magnetic field of the clouds and of the external medium in order to study the collision between two molecular clouds. For each set, we analyse in detail six cases with different directions and orientations of the cloud magnetic field relative to direction of motion of the clouds. The analysis of these twelve cases allowed us to conform analytical-theoretical proposals found in the literature, and to obtain several original results. Previous works indicate that, if the cloud magnetic fields before the collision are orthogonal to the direction of motion, then a strong inhibition of star formation will occur during a cloud-cloud shock, whereas if those magnetic fields are parallel to the direction of motion, star formation will be stimulated. Our treatment of the problem confirmed numerically those results, and further allowed us to quantify the relative star forming efficiencies in each case. Moreover, we propose and analyse an intermediate case where the field of one of the clouds is orthogonal to the motion and the field of the other one is parallel to the motion. We conclude that, in this case, the rate at which the star formation occurs has a value also intermediate between the two extreme cases we mentioned above. Besides that we study the case in which the fields are orthogonal to the direction of the motion but, instead of being parallel to each other, they are anti-parallel, and we obtained for this case the corresponding variation of the star formation rate due to this alteration of the field configuration. This last case has not been studied in the literature before. Our study allows us to obtain, from the simulations, the rate of star formation in each case, as well as the temporal dependence of that rate as each collision evolves, what we do in detail for one of the cases in particular. The values we obtain for the rate of star formation are in accordance with those expected from the presently existing observational data

Formação estelar desencadeada pela colisão entre nuvens moleculares magnetizadas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Influência da filogenia em redes de interações ecológicas

In this thesis we deal with a class of composed networks that are formed by two tree networks, TP and TA, whose end points touches each other through a bipartite network BPA. We explore this network using a functional approach. We are interested in what extend the topology, or the structure, of TX (X = A or P) determines the links of BPA. This composed structure is an useful model in evolutionary biology, where TP and TA are the phylogenetic trees of plants and animals that interact in an ecological community. We use in this thesis two cases of mutualist interactions: frugivory and pollinator networks. We analyse how the phylogeny of TX determines or is correlated with BPA using a Monte Carlo approach. We use the phylogenetic distance among elements that interact with a given species to construct an index κ that quantifies the influence of TX over BPA. The algorithm is based in the assumption that interaction matrices that follows a phylogeny of TX have a total phylogenetic distance smaller than the average distance of an ensemble of Monte Carlo realizations generated by an adequate shuffling data. We find that the phylogeny of animals species has an effect on the ecological matrix that is more marked than plant phylogeny

A Produção do Flagelo : a re-produção do espaço social da seca na cidade de Mossoró (1877-1903-1915)

The great droughts re- produced spaces in the city of Mossoró / RN in the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth century. Its dimension exceeds the climatic effects becoming social locus when advances over the political and economic sectors, social and cultural of the North / Northeast Brazilian societies during that period. This way, analyzing the re-production of social space in episodes of Mossoró‟s droughts is our toil. So try to reveal each segment, route and aspect of production of space in its size and interface between the perceived, conceived and lived, and subjects related to it - refugees, population and authorities - during the droughts of 1877, 1903 and 1915 within Mossoró city. Therefore, issues such as the constitution and representation of the city and social space in the terrifying experience of the drought of 1877, the production of fixed objects and flows of the urban web through of migrant labor, attempts to control, discipline and spatial planning and ways to resistance to these charges in daily sphere are key issues addressed in this work. For this we use diverse sources as minutes of the city council, reports from provincial presidents, media, memory books and others that sustain us in building our narrative and problematic. This way, the spatial production of Mossoró‟s droughts reveals itself in the field of relations and political-economic transformations and sociocultural, inextricably, that shapes and mobilizes your own social space

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º