66 resultados para Distribuição teórica de probabilidades


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Technological innovation promotes the generation of economic value by creating a new product, process or organizational management model, being classified as dynamic and multidimensional. Government intervention has the role of acting through government grant programs to foster the integration of innovative processes in small companies, due to the high costs and risks of development, strengthening the country`s economy in this phase. The distribution of this grant is determined by criteria, based especially in subjective judgments, which are based on the beliefs and perceptions about the technological opportunities and market actors involved in the process, being very difficult to measure the probability of success of the project under evaluation. This study aims to identify the most relevant selection criteria that must be inserted in grants programs at Rio Grande do Norte executed by Fundação de Pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte (FAPERN). Initially, there was a systematization of 18 countries, covering 41 programs in foreign countries and 29 in Brazil. Based on the data collected, we conducted one survey containing four programs of FAPERN (INOVA I, INOVA II , INOVA III and INOVA IV), covering 44 companies and analyzing their responses according to the Likert scale , obtaining the degree of importance given by the respondent to each of the criteria in the questionnaire . As a result, drew up a proposal for new criteria to be used in the next FAPERN´s grants, containing 13 new criteria. It is expected, therefore, to contribute to a better spending of public funds invested in companies subsidized in Brazil

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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The search for a sustainable development is result of the exhaustion of the natural resources of the planet that demands globalizated politics with practical of compatible economic development with the protection of the quality of life for the future generations. This work presents a study on the thematic on the environmental liabilities in the organizations with focus in the industry of the oil and the production of oil in land in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Some types of environmental liabilities are presented, as well as, some estimates techniques. Moreover, this work presents surveys of some variable that stimulate the organizations to implant technologies of reduction of the impacts in the environment as: the environmental legislation, costs, the main impacts of the production of oil in land. On the basis of the bibliographical research and in the identified variable, it was carried a case study with state and municipal technician that act in the sectors of fiscalization (IBAMA-RN and IDEMA-RN) with the objective to deepen the discussion regarding the impacts of the industry of the oil, the effectiveness of the current law, the performance of the institutions the federal level and how to prevent impacts in the environment. It was observed that the environmental liabilities are a little spread subject in the organizations, perhaps to be unknown and of few theoretical referencees at the national level, regarding to the evaluation techniques. At the same time, absentee in the national politics that conducts the oil exploration

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The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developing the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. It s important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformer s secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity

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Most algorithms for state estimation based on the classical model are just adequate for use in transmission networks. Few algorithms were developed specifically for distribution systems, probably because of the little amount of data available in real time. Most overhead feeders possess just current and voltage measurements at the middle voltage bus-bar at the substation. In this way, classical algorithms are of difficult implementation, even considering off-line acquired data as pseudo-measurements. However, the necessity of automating the operation of distribution networks, mainly in regard to the selectivity of protection systems, as well to implement possibilities of load transfer maneuvers, is changing the network planning policy. In this way, some equipments incorporating telemetry and command modules have been installed in order to improve operational features, and so increasing the amount of measurement data available in real-time in the System Operation Center (SOC). This encourages the development of a state estimator model, involving real-time information and pseudo-measurements of loads, that are built from typical power factors and utilization factors (demand factors) of distribution transformers. This work reports about the development of a new state estimation method, specific for radial distribution systems. The main algorithm of the method is based on the power summation load flow. The estimation is carried out piecewise, section by section of the feeder, going from the substation to the terminal nodes. For each section, a measurement model is built, resulting in a nonlinear overdetermined equations set, whose solution is achieved by the Gaussian normal equation. The estimated variables of a section are used as pseudo-measurements for the next section. In general, a measurement set for a generic section consists of pseudo-measurements of power flows and nodal voltages obtained from the previous section or measurements in real-time, if they exist -, besides pseudomeasurements of injected powers for the power summations, whose functions are the load flow equations, assuming that the network can be represented by its single-phase equivalent. The great advantage of the algorithm is its simplicity and low computational effort. Moreover, the algorithm is very efficient, in regard to the accuracy of the estimated values. Besides the power summation state estimator, this work shows how other algorithms could be adapted to provide state estimation of middle voltage substations and networks, namely Schweppes method and an algorithm based on current proportionality, that is usually adopted for network planning tasks. Both estimators were implemented not only as alternatives for the proposed method, but also looking for getting results that give support for its validation. Once in most cases no power measurement is performed at beginning of the feeder and this is required for implementing the power summation estimations method, a new algorithm for estimating the network variables at the middle voltage bus-bar was also developed

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The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developping the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. Its important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformers secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity

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The reconfiguration of a distribution network is a change in its topology, aiming to provide specific operation conditions of the network, by changing the status of its switches. It can be performed regardless of any system anomaly. The service restoration is a particular case of reconfiguration and should be performed whenever there is a network failure or whenever one or more sections of a feeder have been taken out of service for maintenance. In such cases, loads that are supplied through lines sections that are downstream of portions removed for maintenance may be supplied by the closing of switches to the others feeders. By classical methods of reconfiguration, several switches may be required beyond those used to perform the restoration service. This includes switching feeders in the same substation or for substations that do not have any direct connection to the faulted feeder. These operations can cause discomfort, losses and dissatisfaction among consumers, as well as a negative reputation for the energy company. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a heuristic for reconfiguration of a distribution network, upon the occurrence of a failure in this network, making the switching only for feeders directly involved in this specific failed segment, considering that the switching applied is related exclusively to the isolation of failed sections and bars, as well as to supply electricity to the islands generated by the condition, with significant reduction in the number of applications of load flows, due to the use of sensitivity parameters for determining voltages and currents estimated on bars and lines of the feeders directly involved with that failed segment. A comparison between this process and classical methods is performed for different test networks from the literature about networks reconfiguration

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The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

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This work presents a theoretical and numerical analysis of structures using frequency selective surfaces applied on patch antennas. The FDTD method is used to determine the time domain reflected fields. Applications of frequency selective surfaces and patch antennas cover a wide area of telecommunications, especially mobile communications, filters and WB antennas. scattering parameters are obteained from Fourier Transformer of transmited and reflected fields in time domain. The PML are used as absorbing boundary condition, allowing the determination of the fields with a small interference of reflections from discretized limit space. Rectangular patches are considered on dielectric layer and fed by microstrip line. Frequency selective surfaces with periodic and quasi-periodic structures are analyzed on both sides of antenna. A literature review of the use of frequency selective surfaces in patch antennas are also performed. Numerical results are also compared with measured results for return loss of analyzed structures. It is also presented suggestions of continuity to this work

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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Dois dos principais objetivos no estudo da aerodinâmica de veículos é a segurança e o desempenho. Esses objetivos podem ser alcançados através do desenvolvimento de dispositivos que modifiquem o escoamento de ar ao redor do veículo e também através de alterações da forma das superfícies externas. O perfil mais baixo da frente do veículo, por exemplo, tem grande influência sobre o coeficiente de penetração aerodinâmica (Cx) e posteriormente sobre grande parte da distribuição de pressão ao longo da superfície do veículo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi de analisar o comportamento aerodinâmico que incide sobre 2 (dois) tipos de carrocerias de veículos, baseado em experimentação em túnel aerodinâmico, visando determinar a eficiência aerodinâmica de cada uma delas. Foram comparados dois modelos de veículos, sendo um deles com configuração familiar, muito comum nas grandes cidades e outro modelo com configuração esportiva mais voltado para o desempenho, ambos com escala 1:18. Para a realização do experimento foi construído um túnel aerodinâmico do tipo soprador com circuito aberto, onde foram analisadas as distribuições de pressão nas superfícies inferiores e superiores da carroceria dos modelos e o deslocamento da camada-limite. Tomando-se por base toda a teórica deste trabalho, com relação à aerodinâmica de carroceria, considerou-se nesta dissertação que essa filosofia de pesquisa é capaz de gerar reflexos positivos, que podem tornar os veículos cada vez mais eficientes e influenciar positivamente nos níveis de segurança e desempenho

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The main goal of this work was to produce nanosized ceramic materials of the family of the tungstates (tungstates of cerium and strontium), and test them for their catalytic activity in processes involving the transformation of methane (CH4). The methodology used for the synthesis of the ceramic powders involved the complexation combining EDTA-citrate. The materials characterization was performed using simple and differential thermogravimetry, x-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). The microstructure analysis was performed using the refinement by the Rietveld method, and the crystallite size and distribution of the materials was elucidate by the Scherrer and Williamson-Hall methods. The conditions of the synthesis process for the three envisaged materials (SrWO4, SrWO4 using tungsten oxide concentrate as raw material, and Ce2(WO4)3) were adjusted to obtain a single phase crystalline material. The catalytic tests were carried out in the presence of methane and synthetic air, which is composed of 21% O2 and 79% N2. The analysis of the conversion of the reaction was done with the aid of an fourier transform infrared device (FTIR). The analysis showed that, structurally, the SrWO4 produced using raw materials of high and poor purity (99% and 92%, respectively) are similar. The ideal parameters of calcination, in the tested range, are temperature of 1000 °C and time of calcination 5 hours. For the Ce2(WO4)3, the ideal calcination time and are temperature 15 hours and 1000°C, respectively. The Williamson-Hall method provided two different distributions for the crystallite size of each material, whose values ranged between the nanometer and micrometer scales. According to method of Scherrer, all materials produced were composed of nanometric crystallites. The analyses of transmission electron microscopy confirmed the results obtained from the Williamson- Hall method for the crystallite size. The EDS showed an atomic composition for the metals in the SrWO4 that was different of the theoretical composition. With respect to the catalytic tests, all materials were found to be catalytically active, but the reaction process should be further studied and optimized.

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The state of Rio Grande do Norte, possessor of an extremely irregular regime of rains, has the necessity of enlarge and specify the researches about its own hydro-climatic conditions, to achieve trustworthy results that are able to minimize the adversities imposed by these conditions and make possible the implementation of a better planning in the economic activities and of subsistence that somehow utilize of the multiple uses of hydro resources of the State. This way, the daily values observed from the pluviometric series of 166 posts, with 45 years uninterrupted of historic data, were adjusted to the incomplete gamma function to the determination of the probability of rain in the 36 period of ten days in which the year was divided. To the attainment of the α and β parameters of this function it was applied the method of the maximum verisimilitude allowing, in the end, to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of the rain in the level of 75% of probability. The values of potential evapo-transpiration were calculated by the Linacre method that, through the SURFER software, were confronted with the dependant rain, obtaining, in this way, the spatialization of the potential hydro availability, which the values can be known to any period of ten days of the year, city and/or region of the state of Rio Grande do Norte. With the identification of the main meteorological systems that act in the State, we sought to better comprehend how this systems interfere, in the irregular regime of rain, in the situations of several clime in the major part of Rio Grande do Norte and in the hydro regional balance. And, finally, with these data in hand and with the generated maps, we verified that space-temporal distribution of the rain and of the potential hydro availability were heterogeneous in the whole State, mainly in the West and Central regions, inserted in potiguar s semi-arid, which, after the period of the rains station, suffers with dry season and length drought during the rest of the year

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The aim of this study is to characterize and evaluate the Macro System of Regional Water Distribution Natal North (RNN) and Southern Regional Natal (RNS), covering 35% and 65% respectively of the Natal-RN City. The terms of the quality and quantity of water (surface and groundwater) were also evaluated in order to adjust the parameters that contribute to proper distribution and control in water reserves. The methodology of the work took place from collecting volumetric data of production capacity and distribution of the two treatment plants for Regional as well as the flow rates of wells. Yet the quantitative capacity of reservation, distribution and consumption of the main reservoirs, population numbers and consumption of members neighborhoods were collected. Data were tabulated and used in computational simulator EPANET to diagnose possible through the water balance, the offers and demands on the water supply system in the neighborhoods of the capital, linking them to specific distribution points. We also evaluated the wells in the levels of nitrate in water consumed. As a result it was found that some neighborhoods in the South Regional Natal, was ranked as critical supply situation: City of Hope, Lagoa Nova and Nova Descoberta, where demand exceeds supply. While in most Northern Regional Natal present deficiency in the supply system as: Lagoa Azul, the Parque dos Coqueiros, igapó, Amarante and Salinas. The rates of nitrate in the city were significant, but manageable with corrective and preventive measures. The averages were 12 mg /l-N in Candelária, 10 mg/l-N in Lagoa Nova, 9 mg/l-N in Satelite, 20 mg/l-N in Gramore and 15 mg/l-N in N. Sra. Apresentação. Therefore proper distribution of water abstracted and implementation of quality control ensures the supply required by the system, associated with preservation of Water Resources of the Metropolitan Region of Natal