Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Estudo da síntese e sinterização de pós compósitos do sistema Ta-Cu

Ta-Cu bulk composites combine high mechanical resistance of the Ta with high electrical and thermal conductivity of the Cu. These are important characteristics to electrical contacts, microwave absorber and heat skinks. However, the low wettability of Ta under Cu liquid and insolubility mutual these elements come hard sintering this composite. High-energy milling (HEM) produces composite powders with high homogeneity and refines the grain size. This work focus to study Ta-20wt%Cu composite powders prepared by mechanical mixture and HEM with two different conditions of milling in a planetary ball mill and then their sintering using hydrogen plasma furnace and a resistive vacuum furnace. After milling, the powders were pressed in a steel dye at a pressure of 200 MPa. The cylindrical samples pressed were sintered by resistive vacuum furnace at 10-4torr with a sintering temperature at 1100ºC / 60 minutes and with heat rate at 10ºC/min and were sintered by plasma furnace with sintering temperatures at 550, 660 and 800ºC without isotherm under hydrogen atmosphere with heat rate at 80ºC/min. The characterizations of the powders produced were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), x-ray diffraction (XRD) and laser granulometry. After the sintering the samples were analyzed by SEM, XRD and density and mass loss tests. The results had shown that to high intense milling condition produced composite particles with shorter milling time and amorphization of both phases after 50 hours of milling. The composite particles can produce denser structure than mixed powders, if heated above the Cu melting point. After the Cu to arrive in the melting point, liquid copper leaves the composite particles and fills the pores

Estudo da moagem de alta energia e sinterização de pós compósitos W-Cu

The Tungsten/copper composites are commonly used for electrical and thermal objectives like heat sinks and lectrical conductors, propitiating an excellent thermal and electrical conductivity. These properties are dependents of the composition, crystallite size and production process. The high energy milling of the powder of W-Cu produces an dispersion high and homogenization levels with crystallite size of W very small in the ductile Cu phase. This work discusses the effect of the HEM in preparation of the W-25Cu composite powders. Three techniques of powder preparation were utilized: milling the dry with powder of thick Cu, milling the dry with powder of fine Cu and milling the wet with powder of thick Cu. The form, size and composition of the particles of the powders milled were observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to analyse the phases, lattice parameters, size and microstrain of the crystallite. The analyse of the crystalline structure of the W-25Cu powders milled made by Rietveld Method suggests the partial solid solubility of the constituent elements of the Cu in lattice of the W. This analyse shows too that the HEM produces the reduction high on the crystallite size and the increase in the lattice strain of both phases, this is more intense in the phase W

Caracterização de compósitos Nb-20%cu obtidos por moagem de alta energia e sinterizados por fase líquida

In this work, was studied the formation of a composite of the refractory metal niobium with copper, through the process of high-energy milling and liquid phase sintering. The HEM can be used to synthesize composite powders with high homogeneity and fine size particle distribution. It may also produce the solid solubility in immiscible systems such as Nb-Cu, or extend the solubility of systems with limited solubility. Therefore, in the immiscible system Cu-Nb, the high-energy milling was successfully used to obtain the composite powder particles. Initially, the formation of composite particles during the HEM and the effect of preparation technique on the microstructure of the material was evaluated. Four loads of Nb and Cu powders containing 20%wt Cu were synthesized by MAE in a planetary type ball mill under different periods of grinding. The influence of grinding time on the metal particles is evaluated during the process by the withdrawal of samples at intermediate times of milling. After compaction under different forces, the samples were sintered in a vacuum furnace. The liquid phase sintering of these samples prepared by HEM produced a homogeneous and fine grained. The composite particles forming the sintered samples are the addition of a hard phase (Nb) with a high melting point, and a ductile phase (Cu) with low melting point and high thermal and electrical conductivities. Based on these properties, the Nb-Cu system is a potential material for many applications, such as electrical contacts, welding electrodes, coils for generating high magnetic fields, heat sinks and microwave absorbers, which are coupled to electronic devices. The characterization techniques used in this study, were laser granulometry, used to evaluate the homogeneity and particle size, and the X-ray diffraction, in the phase identification and to analyze the crystalline structure of the powders during milling. The morphology and dispersion of the phases in the composite powder particles, as well the microstructures of the sintered samples, were observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Subsequently, the sintered samples are evaluated for density and densification. And finally, they were characterized by techniques of measuring the electrical conductivity and microhardness, whose properties are analyzed as a function of the parameters for obtaining the composite

Obtenção de pós de tântalo metálico a partir da redução aluminotérmica com ignição a plasma

Metallic tantalum has a high commercial value due to intrinsic properties like excellent ductility, corrosion resistance, high melt and boiling points and good electrical and thermal conductivities. Nowadays, it is mostly used in the manufacture of capacitors, due to excellent dielectric properties of its oxides. In the nature, tantalum occurs in the form of oxide and it is extracted mainly from tantalite-columbite ores. The tantalum is usually produced by the reduction of its oxide, using reductants like carbon, silicon, calcium, magnesium and aluminum. Among these techniques, the aluminothermic reduction has been used as the industrial method to produce niobium, tantalum and their alloys, due to the easy removal of the Al and Al2O3 of the system, easing further refining. In conventional aluminothermic reduction an electrical resistance is used to trigger the reaction. This reaction self-propagates for all the volume of material. In this work, we have developed a novel technique of aluminothermic reduction that uses the hydrogen plasma to trigger the reaction. The results obtained by XRD, SEM and EDS show that is possible to obtain a compound rich in tantalum through this technique of aluminothermic reduction in the plasma reactor

Significados e percepções de puérperas sobre as síndromes hipertensivas da gravidez e parto prematuro

Hypertensive syndromes in pregnancy (HSP) are configured as one of the major complications in the pregnancy and postpartum period and can lead premature newborn and subsequent hospitalization of the newborn to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). This study aimed to analyze the perceptions, meanings and feelings of mothers on the hypertensive syndromes in pregnancy and premature obstetric labor. The research was qualitative and has a theoretical methodological the Social Representations Theory(SRT) in the approach to the Central Nucleus Theory. The study included 70 women, mean age 29 years, predominantly school to high school, most of them married or in consensual union, primiparous and prevalence of cesarean delivery occurred between 32 and 37 weeks of pregnancy.The data were collected from may to december 2008 in the Maternity School Januário Cicco in Natal , and obtained through the following instruments for data collection: questionnaire including questions about socio-demographic status; the Free Words Association Test (FWAT) and and verbalized mental image construction used three stimuli: such as pregnancy with high blood pressure, preterm birth and NICU, and interview with the following guiding question: what it meant for you to have a pregnancy with high blood pressure and consequently the birth of a premature baby? Data analysis was performed using multi-method obtained from the data processing by EVOC (Ensemble Programmes Permettant L 'Analyze des Évocations) and ALCESTE (Analyse Lexicale par Contexte d'un Ensemble de Segment de Texte) and thematic analysis in categories. The results will be presented in four thematic units under the following representative universes: HSP, prematurity as a result of HSP, NICU and the social representations of mothers on the hypertensive disorder of pregnancy sequenced premature birth and hospitalization of the child in the NICU. The results obtained by multimethod analyses showed similar constructions and point to death as the central nucleus and negative aspects, coping strategies, need of care, knowledge about the disease, fragility and meanings of the NICU as peripheral elements. It is considered that the perceptions, meanings and feelings of puerperal women in relation to HSPs and to premature delivery are a negative social representation, with representational elements that may have influenced the adverse effects on the disease and its consequences. We suggest action on the peripheral elements of this representation, with adequate orientation, early diagnosis, effective conduct, receptive attitude on the part of the team, health promotion measures and effective public policies, in order to improve the care provided to puerperal women, making them feel welcome and minimizing their suffering

O exame neurológico do recém-nascido pré-termo não complicado: avaliação pela escala de saint-anne dargassies, e screening pelas escalas de amiel-barrier-shnider modificada e prechtl ao termo

This study compared the evolution of posture, tone and neonatal reflexes in preterm infants without clinical or neurological complications before and after the age of term using the scale of Saint-Anne Dargassies. To reach the age of the term, was applied Scales Amiel-Barrier-Shnider changed and the Prechtl, traditionally used in the evaluation of term newborns, looking for possible changes to the term, while also evaluating the sensitivity of these scales. We studied 20 non-complicated preterm infants, both sexes aged 32-36 weeks, born in Januário Cicco Maternity School, from August 2006 to August 2007. Was applied to the scale of Saint-Anne Dargassies every two weeks until reach the term, and the range of Amiel-Barrier-Shnider changed and the Prechtl, after reaching 39 and 41 weeks. The evaluation result of articular angles was subjected to the test of Friedman ANOVA, significant differences between the three measurements of the scale of Saint-Anne Dargassies only for angles heel-to-ear to term. Neonatal reflexes changed in the period of prematurity were the cardinal points reflexes, Moro reflexes, cross extensions reflex and the automatic walking reflexes. The posture was the parameter which remained unchanged in the three scales. Considering a significance level of 5% by applying Cochran Q Test, it was found that the scale of Saint-Anne Dargassies is more sensitive to detect suspects. With this methodology and the results it was possible to prepare a manuscript: The neurological examination of non-complicated preterm newborns using the Sanit-Anne Dargssies Scale from birth to term: normal or altered? In which we describe that despite the good clinical condition, the RNP show changes in tone and neonatal reflexes. These data are important because though non-complicated RNP need further attention its maturation process, enabling us to detect and intervene early. With these results we can build a scale simplified neurological assessment made with items found most altered during the application of three scales. The development of this project has a multidisciplinary approach, because it involved Paediatric Neurologist, Physiotherapist and Neonatologist, as recommended by PPGCSA

Nanopartíulas de magnetita com oxacilina obtida por moagem de alta energia para aplicações biomédicas

The drug targeting has been the subject of extensive studies in order to develop site-specific treatments that minimize side effects and become more effective anticancer therapy. Despite considerable interest in this class, drugs like antibiotics also have limitations, and have been neglected. Using new pharmaceutical technologies, the use of magnetic vectors appear as promising candidate for drug delivery systems in several studies. Small magnetic particles bound to the drug of interest can be modulated according to the orientation of a magnet outside the body, locating and holding in a specific site. In this work, we propose the use of High Energy Milling (HEM) for synthesis of a magnetic vector with characteristics suitable for biomedical applications by intravenous administration, and for the formation of an oxacillin-carrier complex to obtain a system for treating infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus. The results of the variation of milling time showed that the size and structural properties of the formed material change with increasing milling time, and in 60 hours we found the sample closest to the ideal conditions of the material. The vector-drug system was studied in terms of structural stability and antimicrobial activity after the milling process, which revealed the integrity of the oxacillin molecule and its bactericidal action on cultures of Staphylococcus aureus ATCC

Tecendo Papéis:viagem pelos saberes e práticas do ensino de arte

Nowdays, recycling became a relevant social and educational aim among many other factors, which involve balance between man and nature. This study relates the experiences with the production of recycled handmade paper directed at the teaching in Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte UFRN, and through workshops of carnauba recycled handcrafts papers as a pioneer activity accomplished at the Felix Rodrigues Foundation, in the city of Pendências, Açu Valley, Rio Grande do Norte. A bibliographic review was done about the history of handmade paper and a discussion about carnauba´s paper artistic possibilities in art-education. Analyses within the context of art teaching, accordingly to Ana Mae Barbosa´s triangle propose and, also, Buoro, Ostrower and Nachmanovitch´s pedagogy of art. It deals with a group of artisans in order to establish the nature of their relationship and the possibilities of achieving more ecological awareness. Finally, we intend to realize a dialogue with Morin and other authors

Evolução de Rádio Fontes Duplas Extragalácticas

Double radio sources have been studied since the discovery of extragalactic radio sources in the decade of 1930. Since then, several numerical studies and analytical models have been proposed seeking a better understanding of the physical phenomena that determines the origin and evolution of such objects. In this thesis, we intended to study the evolution problem of the double radio sources in two fronts: in the ¯rst we have developed an analytical self-similar model that represents a generalization of most models found in the literature and solve some existent problems related to the jet head evolution. We deal with this problem using samples of hot spot sizes to ¯nd a power law relation between the jet head dimension and the source length. Using our model, we were able to draw the evolution curves of the double sources in a PD diagram for both compact sources (GPS and CSS) and extended sources of the 3CR catalogue. We have alson developed a computation tool that allows us to generate synthetic radio maps of the double sources. The objective is to determine the principal physical parameters of those objects by comparing synthetic and observed radio maps. In the second front, we used numeric simulations to study the interaction of the extra- galactic jets with the environment. We simulated situations where the jet propagates in a medium with high density contrast gas clouds capable to block the jet forward motion, forming the distorted structures observed in the morphology of real sources. We have also analyzed the situation in which the jet changes its propagation direction due to a change of the source main axis, creating the X-shaped sources. The comparison between our simulations and the real double radio sources, enable us to determine the values of the main physical parameters responsible for the distortions observed in those objects

Estudo de um compósito Nb-15%pCu obtidos por moagem de alta energia e sinterizados por fase líquida

There is great difficulty in forming a composite refractory metal niobium with copper. This is due to the fact that Nb-Cu system is almost mutually immiscible and may be neglected solubility between them. These properties hinder or prevent obtaining homogeneous and high-density structures, conventionally prepared. This study aims to analyze the use of high-energy milling process (MAE) to implement these natural difficulties, with regard to the densification of the sintered bodies. The MAE and the press were used in the preparation of powders, to obtain a fine and homogeneous distribution of the grain size. Four loads Nb and Cu powders containing 15% by weight of Cu were then milled for MAE in a planetary type ball mill under various milling times and speeds. The results obtained by MAE were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), according to the parameters of time and grinding speed. The samples were compacted under pressure of 200 MPa, were then sintered in liquid phase in a vacuum furnace at temperatures of 1100 ° C / 60 min and 1200 ° C / 60 min. Then it was used to characterize diffraction of X-rays to identify the phases. The microstructures of the sintered samples were observed and evaluated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Vickers Microhardness tests were performed, obtaining higher values for the sintered bodies in the largest of the post milling times and the larger grinding speeds. It was found that the liquid phase sintering of the samples that were processed by MAE produced at the end of a homogeneous and densified structure in 77,4% relative to the value of the theoretical density of the composite

Avaliação do ganho de peso de bebês prematuros em relação ao leite materno cru e leite pasteurizado

This study aims to evaluate the weight gain of premature newborns fed with breast milk from their mothers' from those that are fed with breast milk from the milk bank. The research is the quantitative, descriptive and observational kind. It was conducted in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Housing from the Maternity Hospital Escola Januário Cicco (MEJC), that is a reference for high risk pregnancy and birth in Rio Grande do Norte. The premature newborns included were following these parameters: gestational age from 26 to 37 weeks, initially hospitalized at UTIN, with oral diet, by means by gavage, cup and/or suction. Studies with premature newborns with a zero diet longer than seven days or complications that interfered in the evaluation of weight gain were excluded from this study. The sample was selected for convenience and had data of all newborns hospitalized at UTIN from the May to June of 2014 time period, followed to their discharge, ended by August of 2014 and had the inclusion parameters of the study. From the period of the data collection, 60 premature newborns entered the maternity and 39 of those were the sample of research. The project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee from UFRN, under CAAE nº 0699.0.000.294-11. The data was analyzed by means of descriptive and deduced statistics. The results indicated that the involved in the study, were born from mother with average age of 25,36 years, with less than nine years education 21 (53,8%), had the family income less than a minimum wage 24 (61,5%). Among the newborn, the female gender predominated 20 (51,3%), had cesarean delivery 25 (64,1%), had moderate prematurity 29 (74,5%), more of 1.500g 22 (556,4%). The birth weight average was 1.608,49g. The total of diets were 9.994, and an average of 256 for each newborn, in a 32,12 days of hospitalization time period. Most of the diet supplies were from the breast milk bank (50,34%), however 56,4% of the newborns had most of the diet from their mothers' milked breast milk. It was detected that 38,5% of the newborns had, in some given moment, artificial milk. The daily weight gain average of all newborns was 2,59g, but 35% of them had an average above 10g per day. From the newborn's group (n=25) that had medium weight gain, only 9 of them (36,0%) received mainly their own mothers' milked breast milk. It's been conclusive that most of the premature newborns gained weight predominantly from diets from the breast milk of the Milk Bank, showing the need of a bigger incentive to exclusive breast feeding.

Avaliação da concentração de vitamina A materna e de neonatos prematuros e a termo

Vitamin A is an essential nutrient for many physiological processes such as growth and development, so that their adequate nutritional state is essential during pregnancy and lactation. Lactating women and children in breastfeeding are considered risk groups for vitamin A deficiency and some factors may increase the risk of vitamin A deficiency, such as prematurity. The aim of this work was to evaluate the vitamin A concentration in preterm and term lactating women and newborns by determination of retinol in maternal serum, umbilical cord serum and breast milk collected until 72 hours postpartum. 182 mothers were recruited and divided into preterm group (GPT; n = 118) and term group (GT, n = 64). In preterm group were also analyzed transition milk (7th-15th day; n = 68) and mature milk (30th-55th day; n = 46) samples. Retinol was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Maternal retinol concentration in serum was 48.6 ± 12.3 µg/dL in GPT and 42.8 ± 16.3 µg/dL in the GT (p <0.01). Cord serum retinol was 20.4 ± 7.4 µg/dL in GPT and 23.2 ± 7.6 µg/dL in GT (p> 0.05). Among newborns, 43% of premature and 36% of term had low levels of serum retinol in umbilical cord (<20 µg/dL). In colostrum, the retinol in preterm and term groups had an average of 100.8 ± 49.0 µg/dL and 127.5 ± 65.1 µg/dL, respectively (p <0.05). The retinol average in preterm milk increased to 112.5 ± 49.7 µg/dL in transition phase and decreased to 57.2 ± 23.4 µg/dL in mature milk, differing significantly in all stages (p <0.05). When comparing with the recommendation of vitamin A intake (400 µg/day) GT colostrum reached the recommendation for infants, but in GPT the recommendation was not achieved at any stage. Mothers of premature infants had higher serum retinol than mothers at term; however, this was not reflected in serum retinol of umbilical cord, since premature had lower concentration of retinol. Such condition can be explained due to lower maternal physiological hemodilution and placental transfer of retinol to the fetus during preterm gestation. Comparison of retinol in colostrum showed lower concentrations in GPT; however the transition phase there was a significant increase of retinol content released by the mammary gland of preterm mothers. This situation highlights a specific physiological adaptation of prematurity, likely to more contribute to formation of hepatic reserves of retinol in premature infants.

Estudo de duas pseudoligas de Nb-Cu obtidas pela rota da metalurgia do pó

The Nb-Cu pseudoalloys present themselves as potential substitutes for the alloys from a well known system and already commercially applied, as the W-Cu alloys, used in applications such as heat sinks, electrical contacts and coils for the generation of high magnetic fields. Because it is an immiscible system, where there is mutual insolubility and low wettability of the liquid Cu on the Nb surface, the processing route used in this work was the Powder Metallurgy. Two Nb alloys were used, with additions of 10% and 20% in weight of Cu, and times of 20, 30 and 40 hours for the high energy milling of the starting powders. The milling evolution of the powders is presented through the characterization techniques, such as the LASER diffraction for particle size, XRD, SEM, EDS, DSC, dilatometry, TEM and chemical analysis. After the milling, portions of the loads were submitted to the annealing heat treatment. The process used for the samples consolidation was the hot pressing, which has been applied both on some milled powders samples, as on the annealed powders. Subsequent heat treatments were performed in the samples at temperatures of 1000ºC (solid phase) and 1100ºC (in the Cu liquid phase). All sets of consolidated samples, and also the two sets of the heat treated, were analyzed by XRD, SEM, EDS, density and Vickers microhardness. Moreover, other Nb powder samples with 10% and 20% in weight of Cu obtained by simple mechanical mixing, were consolidated, thermally treated and characterized with the same techniques applied to the others, and the results were compared among themselves. Despite the difficulty of consolidation and densification of the two pseudoalloys of the Nb-Cu system of this study, on the route that passes through the HEM, samples were obtained with densities around 90% of the theoretical density. And, on the processing route of which were only mixed, the values reached up to 97%. Therefore, in this work are also emphasized the processes that made possible these results.

Efeito da adição de WC e Co na sinterização e propriedades mecânicas da alumina

Composites based on alumina (Al2O3), tungsten carbide (WC) and cobalt (Co) exhibit specific properties such as low density, high oxidation resistance, high melting point and high chemical inertia. That composite shows to be a promising material for application in various fields of engineering. In this work, the mechanical properties of the composite (Al2O3 – WC – Co), particularly density and hardness, were evaluated according to the effects of the variables of powder processing parameters, green compact and sintered. Powder composites with the composition of 80 wt% Al2O3, 18 wt% WC and 2 wt% Co were processed by high energy ball milling in a planetary mill for 50 hours as well as mixed by manual mixing in a glass vessel with the same proportion. Samples were collected (2, 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 hours) during the milling process. Then, the powders were compacted in a cylindrical die with 5 mm in diameter in a uniaxial press with pressures of 200 and 400 MPa. The sintering was in two stages: first, the solid phase sintering was performed at 1126 and 1300 °C for 1 hour with a heating rate of 10 °C/min in a resistive furnace under argon atmosphere for green samples compacted in 200 and 400 MPa; the second sintering was performed on dilatometer in solid phase at 1300 °C for green sample compacted in 200 MPa, another sintering also was performed on dilatometer, this time in liquid phase at 1550 °C for green samples compacted in 200 and 400 MPa, with the same parameters used in resistive furnace. The raw materials were characterized by X – ray diffraction (XRD), X – ray fluorescence (XRF), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and laser particlemeter. The sintered samples were subjected to microhardness testing. The results showed that high energy milling achieved to the objectives regarding the particle size and the dispersion of composite phases. However, the hardness did not achieve to significant results, this is an indication that the composite has low fracture toughness.