Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

A resposta japonesa aos choques de oferta: 1973/1981

This paper discusses some theoretical aspects of supply shocks and describes the impact of supply shocks on the japanese economy using some comparasions with USA and Brazil. The outstanding results on adjusting on "Oil shocks were due to a tight and orthodox monetary policy associate with some peculiarites of the japanese labor market .

The Brazilian 1994 stabilization plan: an analytical view

The Real Plan has succeeded in stabilizing the Brazilian inflation. The consumer price inflation has been reduced from 11260 percent per year, in June 1994, to an estimate of 8 percent in 1997. The lower inflation resulted in a remarkable income distribution, and in an increased private consumption. The plan managed to control the inflationary effects of the increased demand with some traditional measures: A more liberalized economy, a moving (and overvalued) exchange rate band, high interest rate differentials, and a tight domestic credit policy. The government has, so far failed to accomplish the fiscal adjustment. The price stabilization has largely depended on the current account deficit. However, macroeconomic indicators do not present reasons for concern about the current account sustainability, in the medium-run. The economy may be trapped in a low-growth vicious cycle, represented by a stop-and-go trend, due to the two-way endogencity between domestic saving and growth. Economic growth depends on policies in increase the public sector saving, to secure the privatization of the State enterprises, and to promote investments. The major problem for the government action is, as always, in the political sphere. Approximately 80 percent of the Central Government net revenue are allocated to the social sectors. Consequently, the fiscal reform will hue to deal with the problem of re-designing the public sector’s intervention in the social area. Most probably, it will be inevitable to cut the social area budget. This is politically unpleasant.

Brazil: the pressure points in labor legislation

Brazil’s experience shows that the economic and political history of a country is a critical determinant of which labor laws influence wages and employment, and which are not binding. Long periods of high inflation, illiteracy of the workforce, and biases in the design and enforcement of labor legislation bred by the country’s socioeconomic history are all important in determining the reach of labor laws. Defying conventional wisdom, these factors are shown to affect labor market outcomes even in the sector of employment regarded as unregulated. Following accepted practice in Brazil, we distinguish regulated from unregulated employment by determining whether or not the contract has been ratified by the Ministry of Labor, viz., groups of workers with and without signed work booklet. We then examine the degree of adherence to labor laws in the formal and informal sectors, and finds “pressure points” – viz., evidence of the law on minimum wage, work-hours, and payment timing being binding on outcomes – in both the formal and informal sectors of the Brazilian labor market. The findings of the paper imply that in terms of the design of legislation, informality in Brazil is mainly a fiscal, and not a legal phenomenon. But the manner in which these laws have been enforced is also critical determinant of informality in Brazil: poor record-keeping has strengthened the incentives to stay informal that are already built into the design of the main social security programs, and ambiguities in the design of labor legislation combined with slanted enforcement by labor courts have led to workers effectively being accorded the same labor rights whether or not they have ratified contracts. The incentives to stay informal are naturally higher for workers who are assured of protection under labor legislation regardless of the nature of their contract, which only alters their financial relationship with the government. The paper concludes that informality in Brazil will remain high as long as labor laws remain ambiguous and enforced with a clear pro-labor bias, and social security programs lack tight benefitcontribution linkages and strong enforcement mechanisms.

Gestão da polícia militar: a cultura institucional como agente limitador da construção de uma polícia cidadã

Esta dissertação teve como objetivo compreender de que maneira a cultura organizacional da polícia militar influencia o modelo de gestão da instituição. O cotidiano institucional da policia militar é repleto de situações que servem de objeto de argüição sobre o processo de construção da identidade do policial militar como resultante de um comportamento normativo e disciplinar que consolida conceitos historicamente enraizados, os quais se repassam de geração a geração. O modo de agir do policial militar configura uma cultura institucional que reforça a crise de segurança instalada na sociedade. Frente a tal realidade, a gestão institucional passa a ser um importante objeto de investigação capaz de contribuir com mudanças no trabalho policial militar, pois ainda persiste no modus operandi da segurança pública uma ação tipicamente ligada ao controle da violência mediante o uso da violência. Presumivelmente, esse papel seria exercido através do cumprimento da doutrina que atualmente é ensinada nas academias militares. No entanto, essas formulações são usadas como anteparo e reforço de valores militares rígidos, configurando a cultura organizacional da instituição, de maneira que tais preceitos e as práticas que as acompanham são as referências principais do discurso teórico e dos argumentos ideológicos da Polícia Militar. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que as bases doutrinárias, transplantadas do exército brasileiro e que originaram as policias militares, persistem até os dias atuais nessa instituição e resultou na absorção da doutrina militar expressa no pensamento, símbolos, modus operandi e estrutura, o que a mantém sob controle rígido, atendendo às expectativas do Estado em detrimento do povo ou da própria policia; a cultura organizacional da polícia militar permanece quase inalterada desde suas origens, o que a coloca em dissonância com a realidade contemporânea; o modelo de gestão que a polícia militar utilizar foi construído a partir da base ideológica de suas origens, centrado na hierarquia e na disciplina, e que tem no cumprimento do regulamento o foco central da gestão; e que o modelo de gestão praticado pela polícia militar impede o cumprimento de sua missão institucional e social porque seu foco está deslocado, ou seja, ao invés de focar a solução dos problemas de segurança e defesa dos direitos da sociedade visa ao cumprimento linear, puro e simples do regulamento militar (Esse trecho está muito confuso!! Não consigo entender o que você quis dizer). A conclusão é que a cultura organizacional das polícias militares determina o modelo de gestão contemporâneo da instituição focado na militarização. É um modelo que privilegia a hierarquia e a disciplina (e ao apego ao regulamento), em detrimento do capital intelectual e da participação de seus membros e da sociedade na identificação e solUção dos seus objetivos e metas. Como resultado, a polícia militar se distanciou da solução de sua missão institucional e social, o que levou a sociedade a se ressentir de proteção e defesa de seus direitos.

Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between rnonetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It ana1yzes a large data set of currency crises in 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. The rnain question addressed is: can rnonetary policy significantly alter the probability of reversing the post-crisis undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than higher int1ation? We find that tight rnonetary policy facilitates the reversal of currency undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. When the econorny is also facing a banking crisis, depending on the specification, tight rnonetary policy rnay not have the same effect.

Demand-pull stagflation

This paper explores the possibility of stagflation emanating exc1usively from monetaJy sbocks, without concurrent supply shocks or shifts in potential output. This arises in connection with a tight money paradox. in the context of a fiscal theory of the price leveI. The paper exhibits perfect foresight equilibria with output and inflation fluctuating in opposite direetions as a consequence of small monetary shocks, and also following changes in monetaJy policy regime that launch the economy into hyperinflation or that produce dramatic stabilization of already high inflation. For that purpose, an analytically convenient dynamic general equilibrium macro model is deve10ped wbere nominal rigidities are represented by a cross between staggered two-period contracts and state dependent price adjustment in the presence of menu costs.

The Limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political competition

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political-economy distortions by rendering a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political competition is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome when political competition is vigorous, saving the economy from immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.