Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Optimal uncertainty quantification via convex optimization and relaxation

Many engineering applications face the problem of bounding the expected value of a quantity of interest (performance, risk, cost, etc.) that depends on stochastic uncertainties whose probability distribution is not known exactly. Optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ) is a framework that aims at obtaining the best bound in these situations by explicitly incorporating available information about the distribution. Unfortunately, this often leads to non-convex optimization problems that are numerically expensive to solve.

This thesis emphasizes on efficient numerical algorithms for OUQ problems. It begins by investigating several classes of OUQ problems that can be reformulated as convex optimization problems. Conditions on the objective function and information constraints under which a convex formulation exists are presented. Since the size of the optimization problem can become quite large, solutions for scaling up are also discussed. Finally, the capability of analyzing a practical system through such convex formulations is demonstrated by a numerical example of energy storage placement in power grids.

When an equivalent convex formulation is unavailable, it is possible to find a convex problem that provides a meaningful bound for the original problem, also known as a convex relaxation. As an example, the thesis investigates the setting used in Hoeffding's inequality. The naive formulation requires solving a collection of non-convex polynomial optimization problems whose number grows doubly exponentially. After structures such as symmetry are exploited, it is shown that both the number and the size of the polynomial optimization problems can be reduced significantly. Each polynomial optimization problem is then bounded by its convex relaxation using sums-of-squares. These bounds are found to be tight in all the numerical examples tested in the thesis and are significantly better than Hoeffding's bounds.

Lightweight deformable mirrors for future space telescopes

This thesis presents a concept for ultra-lightweight deformable mirrors based on a thin substrate of optical surface quality coated with continuous active piezopolymer layers that provide modes of actuation and shape correction. This concept eliminates any kind of stiff backing structure for the mirror surface and exploits micro-fabrication technologies to provide a tight integration of the active materials into the mirror structure, to avoid actuator print-through effects. Proof-of-concept, 10-cm-diameter mirrors with a low areal density of about 0.5 kg/m² have been designed, built and tested to measure their shape-correction performance and verify the models used for design. The low cost manufacturing scheme uses replication techniques, and strives for minimizing residual stresses that deviate the optical figure from the master mandrel. It does not require precision tolerancing, is lightweight, and is therefore potentially scalable to larger diameters for use in large, modular space telescopes. Other potential applications for such a laminate could include ground-based mirrors for solar energy collection, adaptive optics for atmospheric turbulence, laser communications, and other shape control applications.

The immediate application for these mirrors is for the Autonomous Assembly and Reconfiguration of a Space Telescope (AAReST) mission, which is a university mission under development by Caltech, the University of Surrey, and JPL. The design concept, fabrication methodology, material behaviors and measurements, mirror modeling, mounting and control electronics design, shape control experiments, predictive performance analysis, and remaining challenges are presented herein. The experiments have validated numerical models of the mirror, and the mirror models have been used within a model of the telescope in order to predict the optical performance. A demonstration of this mirror concept, along with other new telescope technologies, is planned to take place during the AAReST mission.

Large-eddy simulations of fully developed turbulent channel and pipe flows with smooth and rough walls

Studies in turbulence often focus on two flow conditions, both of which occur frequently in real-world flows and are sought-after for their value in advancing turbulence theory. These are the high Reynolds number regime and the effect of wall surface roughness. In this dissertation, a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) recreates both conditions over a wide range of Reynolds numbers Re_τ = O(10²)-O(10⁸) and accounts for roughness by locally modeling the statistical effects of near-wall anisotropic fine scales in a thin layer immediately above the rough surface. A subgrid, roughness-corrected wall model is introduced to dynamically transmit this modeled information from the wall to the outer LES, which uses a stretched-vortex subgrid-scale model operating in the bulk of the flow. Of primary interest is the Reynolds number and roughness dependence of these flows in terms of first and second order statistics. The LES is first applied to a fully turbulent uniformly-smooth/rough channel flow to capture the flow dynamics over smooth, transitionally rough and fully rough regimes. Results include a Moody-like diagram for the wall averaged friction factor, believed to be the first of its kind obtained from LES. Confirmation is found for experimentally observed logarithmic behavior in the normalized stream-wise turbulent intensities. Tight logarithmic collapse, scaled on the wall friction velocity, is found for smooth-wall flows when Re_τ ≥ O(10⁶) and in fully rough cases. Since the wall model operates locally and dynamically, the framework is used to investigate non-uniform roughness distribution cases in a channel, where the flow adjustments to sudden surface changes are investigated. Recovery of mean quantities and turbulent statistics after transitions are discussed qualitatively and quantitatively at various roughness and Reynolds number levels. The internal boundary layer, which is defined as the border between the flow affected by the new surface condition and the unaffected part, is computed, and a collapse of the profiles on a length scale containing the logarithm of friction Reynolds number is presented. Finally, we turn to the possibility of expanding the present framework to accommodate more general geometries. As a first step, the whole LES framework is modified for use in the curvilinear geometry of a fully-developed turbulent pipe flow, with implementation carried out in a spectral element solver capable of handling complex wall profiles. The friction factors have shown favorable agreement with the superpipe data, and the LES estimates of the Karman constant and additive constant of the log-law closely match values obtained from experiment.

Theory of ozone isotopic effects and various electron transfer reactions

Three separate topics, each stimulated by experiments, are treated theoretically in this dessertation: isotopic effects of ozone, electron transfer at interfaces, and intramolecular directional electron transfer in a supramolecular system.

The strange mass-independent isotope effect for the enrichment of ozone, which has been a puzzle in the literature for some 20 years, and the equally puzzling unconventional strong mass-dependent effect of individual reaction rate constants are studied as different aspects of a symmetry-driven behavior. A statistical (RRKM-based) theory with a hindered-rotor transition state is used. The individual rate constant ratios of recombination reactions at low pressures are calculated using the theory involving (1) small deviation from the statistical density of states for symmetric isotopomers, and (2) weak collisions for deactivation of the vibrationally excited ozone molecules. The weak collision and partitioning among exit channels play major roles in producing the large unconventional isotope effect in "unscrambled" systems. The enrichment studies reflect instead the non-statistical effect in "scrambled" systems. The theoretical results of low-pressure ozone enrichments and individual rate constant ratios obtained from these calculations are consistent with the corresponding experimental results. The isotopic exchange rate constant for the reaction ^(16)O + ^(18)O ^(18)O→+ ^(16)O ^(18)O + ^(18)O provides information on the nature of a variationally determined hindered-rotor transition state using experimental data at 130 K and 300 K. Pressure effects on the recombination rate constant, on the individual rate constant ratios and on the enrichments are also investigated. The theoretical results are consistent with the experimental data. The temperature dependence of the enrichment and rate constant ratios is also discussed, and experimental tests are suggested. The desirability of a more accurate potential energy surface for ozone in the transition state region is also noted.

Electron transfer reactions at semiconductor /liquid interfaces are studied using a tight-binding model for the semiconductors. The slab method and a z-transform method are employed in obtaining the tight-binding electronic structures of semiconductors having surfaces. The maximum electron transfer rate constants at Si/viologen^(2-/+) and InP /Me_(2)Fc^(+/O) interfaces are computed using the tight-binding type calculations for the solid and the extended-Huckel for the coupling to the redox agent at the interface. These electron transfer reactions are also studied using a free electron model for the semiconductor and the redox molecule, where Bardeen's method is adapted to calculate the coupling matrix element between the molecular and semiconductor electronic states. The calculated results for maximum rate constant of the electron transfer from the semiconductor bulk states are compared with the experimentally measured values of Lewis and coworkers, and are in reasonable agreement, without adjusting parameters. In the case of InP /liquid interface, the unusual current vs applied potential behavior is additionally interpreted, in part, by the presence of surface states.

Photoinduced electron transfer reactions in small supramolecular systems, such as 4-aminonaphthalimide compounds, are interesting in that there are, in principle, two alternative pathways (directions) for the electron transfer. The electron transfer, however, is unidirectional, as deduced from pH-dependent fluorescence quenching studies on different compounds. The role of electronic coupling matrix element and the charges in protonation are considered to explain the directionality of the electron transfer and other various results. A related mechanism is proposed to interpret the fluorescence behavior of similar molecules as fluorescent sensors of metal ions.

Characterization of detectors and instrument systematics for the SPIDER CMB polarimeter

We know from the CMB and observations of large-scale structure that the universe is extremely flat, homogenous, and isotropic. The current favored mechanism for generating these characteristics is inflation, a theorized period of exponential expansion of the universe that occurred shortly after the Big Bang. Most theories of inflation generically predict a background of stochastic gravitational waves. These gravitational waves should leave their unique imprint on the polarization of the CMB via Thompson scattering. Scalar perturbations of the metric will cause a pattern of polarization with no curl (E-mode). Tensor perturbations (gravitational waves) will cause a unique pattern of polarization on the CMB that includes a curl component (B-mode). A measurement of the ratio of the tensor to scalar perturbations (r) tells us the energy scale of inflation. Recent measurements by the BICEP2 team detect the B-mode spectrum with a tensor-to-scalar ratio of r = 0.2 (+0.05, −0.07). An independent confirmation of this result is the next step towards understanding the inflationary universe.

This thesis describes my work on a balloon-borne polarimeter called SPIDER, which is designed to illuminate the physics of the early universe through measurements of the cosmic microwave background polarization. SPIDER consists of six single-frequency, on-axis refracting telescopes contained in a shared-vacuum liquid-helium cryostat. Its large format arrays of millimeter-wave detectors and tight control of systematics will give it unprecedented sensitivity. This thesis describes how the SPIDER detectors are characterized and calibrated for flight, as well as how the systematics requirements for the SPIDER system are simulated and measured.

Rewriting Schemes for Flash Memory

Flash memory is a leading storage media with excellent features such as random access and high storage density. However, it also faces significant reliability and endurance challenges. In flash memory, the charge level in the cells can be easily increased, but removing charge requires an expensive erasure operation. In this thesis we study rewriting schemes that enable the data stored in a set of cells to be rewritten by only increasing the charge level in the cells. We consider two types of modulation scheme; a convectional modulation based on the absolute levels of the cells, and a recently-proposed scheme based on the relative cell levels, called rank modulation. The contributions of this thesis to the study of rewriting schemes for rank modulation include the following: we

•propose a new method of rewriting in rank modulation, beyond the previously proposed method of “push-to-the-top”;

•study the limits of rewriting with the newly proposed method, and derive a tight upper bound of 1 bit per cell;

•extend the rank-modulation scheme to support rankings with repetitions, in order to improve the storage density;

•derive a tight upper bound of 2 bits per cell for rewriting in rank modulation with repetitions;

•construct an efficient rewriting scheme that asymptotically approaches the upper bound of 2 bit per cell.

The next part of this thesis studies rewriting schemes for a conventional absolute-levels modulation. The considered model is called “write-once memory” (WOM). We focus on WOM schemes that achieve the capacity of the model. In recent years several capacity-achieving WOM schemes were proposed, based on polar codes and randomness extractors. The contributions of this thesis to the study of WOM scheme include the following: we

•propose a new capacity-achievingWOM scheme based on sparse-graph codes, and show its attractive properties for practical implementation;

•improve the design of polarWOMschemes to remove the reliance on shared randomness and include an error-correction capability.

The last part of the thesis studies the local rank-modulation (LRM) scheme, in which a sliding window going over a sequence of real-valued variables induces a sequence of permutations. The LRM scheme is used to simulate a single conventional multi-level flash cell. The simulated cell is realized by a Gray code traversing all the relative-value states where, physically, the transition between two adjacent states in the Gray code is achieved by using a single “push-to-the-top” operation. The main results of the last part of the thesis are two constructions of Gray codes with asymptotically-optimal rate.

Measurement of the Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background with the BICEP2 and Keck Array Telescopes

Precision polarimetry of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has become a mainstay of observational cosmology. The ΛCDM model predicts a polarization of the CMB at the level of a few μK, with a characteristic E-mode pattern. On small angular scales, a B-mode pattern arises from the gravitational lensing of E-mode power by the large scale structure of the universe. Inflationary gravitational waves (IGW) may be a source of B-mode power on large angular scales, and their relative contribution to primordial fluctuations is parameterized by a tensor-to-scalar ratio r. BICEP2 and Keck Array are a pair of CMB polarimeters at the South Pole designed and built for optimal sensitivity to the primordial B-mode peak around multipole l ~ 100. The BICEP2/Keck Array program intends to achieve a sensitivity to r ≥ 0.02. Auxiliary science goals include the study of gravitational lensing of E-mode into B-mode signal at medium angular scales and a high precision survey of Galactic polarization. These goals require low noise and tight control of systematics. We describe the design and calibration of the instrument. We also describe the analysis of the first three years of science data. BICEP2 observes a significant B-mode signal at 150 GHz in excess of the level predicted by the lensed-ΛCDM model, and Keck Array confirms the excess signal at > 5σ. We combine the maps from the two experiments to produce 150 GHz Q and U maps which have a depth of 57 nK deg (3.4 μK arcmin) over an effective area of 400 deg² for an equivalent survey weight of 248000 μK². We also show preliminary Keck Array 95 GHz maps. A joint analysis with the Planck collaboration reveals that much of BICEP2/Keck Array's observed 150 GHz signal at low l is more likely a Galactic dust foreground than a measurement of r. Marginalizing over dust and r, lensing B-modes are detected at 7.0σ significance.